Impact of instantaneous sea ice removal in a coupled general circulation model

The impact of extreme sea ice initial conditions on modelled climate is analysed for a fully coupled atmosphere ocean sea ice general circulation model, the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3. A control run is chosen as reference experiment with greenhouse gas concentration fixed at preindustrial conditions. Sensitivity experiments show an almost complete recovery from total removal or strong increase of sea ice after four years. Thus, uncertainties in initial sea ice conditions seem to be unimportant for climate modelling on decadal or longer time scales. When the initial conditions of the ocean mixed layer were adjusted to ice-free conditions, a few substantial differences remained for more than 15 model years. But these differences are clearly smaller than the uncertainty of the HadCM3 run and all the other 19 IPCC fourth assessment report climate model preindustrial runs. It is an important task to improve climate models in simulating the past sea ice variability to enable them to make reliable projections for the 21st century.

Moral hazard and nonlinear pricing in a general equilibrium model

The paper analyzes a two period general equilibrium model with individual risk and moral hazard. Each household faces two individual states of nature in the second period. These states solely differ in the household's vector of initial endowments, which is strictly larger in the first state (good state) than in the second state (bad state). In the first period households choose a non-observable action. Higher leveis of action give higher probability of the good state of nature to occur, but lower leveIs of utility. Households have access to an insurance market that allows transfer of income across states of oature. I consider two models of financiaI markets, the price-taking behavior model and the nonlínear pricing modelo In the price-taking behavior model suppliers of insurance have a belief about each household's actíon and take asset prices as given. A variation of standard arguments shows the existence of a rational expectations equilibrium. For a generic set of economies every equilibrium is constraíned sub-optímal: there are commodity prices and a reallocation of financiaI assets satisfying the first period budget constraint such that, at each household's optimal choice given those prices and asset reallocation, markets clear and every household's welfare improves. In the nonlinear pricing model suppliers of insurance behave strategically offering nonlinear pricing contracts to the households. I provide sufficient conditions for the existence of equilibrium and investigate the optimality properties of the modeI. If there is a single commodity then every equilibrium is constrained optimaI. Ir there is more than one commodity, then for a generic set of economies every equilibrium is constrained sub-optimaI.

General equilibrium model with restricted participation in financial markets

The paper analyses a general equilibrium model with financiaI markets in which households may face restrictions in trading financiaI assets such as borrowing constraints and collateral (restricted participation model). However, markets are not assumed to be incomplete. We consider a standard general equilibrium model with H > 1 households, 2 periods and S states of nature in the second period. We show that generically the set of equilibrium allocations ia indeterminate, provided the existence of at least one nominal asset and one household for who some restriction is binding. Suppose there are C > 1 commodities in each state of nature and assets pays in units of some commodity. In this case for each household with binding restrictions it is possible to reduce the set of feasible assets trading and obtain a new equilibrium that utility improve alI those households. There is however an upper bound on the number of households to be improved related to the number of states of nature and the number of commodities. In particular, if the number of households ia smaller than the number of states of nature it is possible to Pareto improve any equilibrium by reducing the feasible choice set for each household.

Chile: building a computable general equilibrium model with an application to the Bío Bío region

Includes bibliography

Simulations of physics and chemistry of polar stratospheric clouds with a general circulation model

A polar stratospheric cloud submodel has been developed and incorporated in a general circulation model including atmospheric chemistry (ECHAM5/MESSy). The formation and sedimentation of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) particles can thus be simulated as well as heterogeneous chemical reactions that take place on the PSC particles. For solid PSC particle sedimentation, the need for a tailor-made algorithm has been elucidated. A sedimentation scheme based on first order approximations of vertical mixing ratio profiles has been developed. It produces relatively little numerical diffusion and can deal well with divergent or convergent sedimentation velocity fields. For the determination of solid PSC particle sizes, an efficient algorithm has been adapted. It assumes a monodisperse radii distribution and thermodynamic equilibrium between the gas phase and the solid particle phase. This scheme, though relatively simple, is shown to produce particle number densities and radii within the observed range. The combined effects of the representations of sedimentation and solid PSC particles on vertical H2O and HNO3 redistribution are investigated in a series of tests. The formation of solid PSC particles, especially of those consisting of nitric acid trihydrate, has been discussed extensively in recent years. Three particle formation schemes in accordance with the most widely used approaches have been identified and implemented. For the evaluation of PSC occurrence a new data set with unprecedented spatial and temporal coverage was available. A quantitative method for the comparison of simulation results and observations is developed and applied. It reveals that the relative PSC sighting frequency can be reproduced well with the PSC submodel whereas the detailed modelling of PSC events is beyond the scope of coarse global scale models. In addition to the development and evaluation of new PSC submodel components, parts of existing simulation programs have been improved, e.g. a method for the assimilation of meteorological analysis data in the general circulation model, the liquid PSC particle composition scheme, and the calculation of heterogeneous reaction rate coefficients. The interplay of these model components is demonstrated in a simulation of stratospheric chemistry with the coupled general circulation model. Tests against recent satellite data show that the model successfully reproduces the Antarctic ozone hole.

Simulating short lived carbonaceous compounds with an atmospheric chemistry general circulation model

Ein neu entwickeltes globales Atmosphärenchemie- und Zirkulationsmodell (ECHAM5/MESSy1) wurde verwendet um die Chemie und den Transport von Ozonvorläufersubstanzen zu untersuchen, mit dem Schwerpunkt auf Nichtmethankohlenwasserstoffen. Zu diesem Zweck wurde das Modell durch den Vergleich der Ergebnisse mit Messungen verschiedenen Ursprungs umfangreich evaluiert. Die Analyse zeigt, daß das Modell die Verteilung von Ozon realistisch vorhersagt, und zwar sowohl die Menge als auch den Jahresgang. An der Tropopause gibt das Modell den Austausch zwischen Stratosphäre und Troposphäre ohne vorgeschriebene Flüsse oder Konzentrationen richtig wieder. Das Modell simuliert die Ozonvorläufersubstanzen mit verschiedener Qualität im Vergleich zu den Messungen. Obwohl die Alkane vom Modell gut wiedergeben werden, ergibt sich einige Abweichungen für die Alkene. Von den oxidierten Substanzen wird Formaldehyd (HCHO) richtig wiedergegeben, während die Korrelationen zwischen Beobachtungen und Modellergebnissen für Methanol (CH3OH) und Aceton (CH3COCH3) weitaus schlechter ausfallen. Um die Qualität des Modells im Bezug auf oxidierte Substanzen zu verbessern, wurden einige Sensitivitätsstudien durchgeführt. Diese Substanzen werden durch Emissionen/Deposition von/in den Ozean beeinflußt, und die Kenntnis über den Gasaustausch mit dem Ozean ist mit großen Unsicherheiten behaftet. Um die Ergebnisse des Modells ECHAM5/MESSy1 zu verbessern wurde das neue Submodell AIRSEA entwickelt und in die MESSy-Struktur integriert. Dieses Submodell berücksichtigt den Gasaustausch zwischen Ozean und Atmosphäre einschließlich der oxidierten Substanzen. AIRSEA, welches Informationen über die Flüssigphasenkonzentration des Gases im Oberflächenwasser des Ozeans benötigt wurde ausgiebig getestet. Die Anwendung des neuen Submodells verbessert geringfügig die Modellergebnisse für Aceton und Methanol, obwohl die Verwendung einer vorgeschriebenen Flüssigphasenkonzentration stark den Erfolg der Methode einschränkt, da Meßergebnisse nicht in ausreichendem Maße zu Verfügung stehen. Diese Arbeit vermittelt neue Einsichten über organische Substanzen. Sie stellt die Wichtigkeit der Kopplung zwischen Ozean und Atmosphäre für die Budgets vieler Gase heraus.

Application of the general linear model to assess the effect of missing data on bone marrow mononuclear cell therapy with infusion timing and follow-up MRI

With most clinical trials, missing data presents a statistical problem in evaluating a treatment's efficacy. There are many methods commonly used to assess missing data; however, these methods leave room for bias to enter the study. This thesis was a secondary analysis on data taken from TIME, a phase 2 randomized clinical trial conducted to evaluate the safety and effect of the administration timing of bone marrow mononuclear cells (BMMNC) for subjects with acute myocardial infarction (AMI).^ We evaluated the effect of missing data by comparing the variance inflation factor (VIF) of the effect of therapy between all subjects and only subjects with complete data. Through the general linear model, an unbiased solution was made for the VIF of the treatment's efficacy using the weighted least squares method to incorporate missing data. Two groups were identified from the TIME data: 1) all subjects and 2) subjects with complete data (baseline and follow-up measurements). After the general solution was found for the VIF, it was migrated Excel 2010 to evaluate data from TIME. The resulting numerical value from the two groups was compared to assess the effect of missing data.^ The VIF values from the TIME study were considerably less in the group with missing data. By design, we varied the correlation factor in order to evaluate the VIFs of both groups. As the correlation factor increased, the VIF values increased at a faster rate in the group with only complete data. Furthermore, while varying the correlation factor, the number of subjects with missing data was also varied to see how missing data affects the VIF. When subjects with only baseline data was increased, we saw a significant rate increase in VIF values in the group with only complete data while the group with missing data saw a steady and consistent increase in the VIF. The same was seen when we varied the group with follow-up only data. This essentially showed that the VIFs steadily increased when missing data is not ignored. When missing data is ignored as with our comparison group, the VIF values sharply increase as correlation increases.^

Simulation analysis of the EU ELV/RoHS directives based on an applied general equilibrium model with Melitz-type trade specification

This paper explores the potential usefulness of an AGE model with the Melitz-type trade specification to assess economic effects of technical regulations, taking the case of the EU ELV/RoHS directives as an example. Simulation experiments reveal that: (1) raising the fixed exporting cost to make sales in the EU market brings results that exports of the targeted commodities (motor vehicles and parts for ELV and electronic equipment for RoHS) to the EU from outside regions/countries expand while the domestic trade in the EU shrinks when the importer's preference for variety (PfV) is not strong; (2) if the PfV is not strong, policy changes that may bring reduction in the number of firms enable survived producers with high productivity to expand production to be large-scale mass producers fully enjoying the fruit of economies of scale; and (3) When the strength of the importer's PfV is changed from zero to unity, there is the value that totally changes simulation results and their interpretations.

Climate simulation for 125 kyr BP with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

The ECHAM-1 T21/LSG coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM) is used to simulate climatic conditions at the last interglacial maximum (Eemian. 125 kyr BP). The results reflect thc expected surface temperature changes (with respect to the control run) due to the amplification (reduction) of the seasonal cycle of insolation in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. A number of simulated features agree with previous results from atmospheric GCM simulations e.g. intensified summer southwest monsoons) except in the Northern Hemisphere poleward of 30 degrees N. where dynamical feedback, in the North Atlantic and North Pacific increase zonal temperatures about 1 degrees C above what would be predicted from simple energy balance considerations. As this is the same area where most of the terrestrial geological data originate, this result suggests that previous estimates of Eemian global average temperature might have been biased by sample distribution. This conclusion is supported by the fact that the estimated global temperature increase of only 0.3 degrees C greater than the control run ha, been previously shown to be consistent a with CLIMAP sea surface temperature estimates. Although the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon is intensified. globally averaged precipitation over land is within about 1% of the present, contravening some geological inferences bur not the deep-sea delta(13)C estimates of terrestrial carbon storage changes. Winter circulation changes in the northern Arabian Sea. driven by strong cooling on land, are as large as summer circulation changes that are the usual focus of interest, suggesting that interpreting variations in the Arabian Sea. sedimentary record solely in terms of the summer monsoon response could sometimes lead to errors. A small monsoonal response over northern South America suggests that interglacial paleotrends in this region were not just due to El Nino variations.

Direct support and general support maintenance repair parts and special tools list ... transmission, crossdrive, hydromechanical, General Electric model HMPT 500 and transmission container assembly (2520-01-105-6446).

"January 1985."

A general linear model for MEG beamformer imaging

A new general linear model (GLM) beamformer method is described for processing magnetoencephalography (MEG) data. A standard nonlinear beamformer is used to determine the time course of neuronal activation for each point in a predefined source space. A Hilbert transform gives the envelope of oscillatory activity at each location in any chosen frequency band (not necessary in the case of sustained (DC) fields), enabling the general linear model to be applied and a volumetric T statistic image to be determined. The new method is illustrated by a two-source simulation (sustained field and 20 Hz) and is shown to provide accurate localization. The method is also shown to locate accurately the increasing and decreasing gamma activities to the temporal and frontal lobes, respectively, in the case of a scintillating scotoma. The new method brings the advantages of the general linear model to the analysis of MEG data and should prove useful for the localization of changing patterns of activity across all frequency ranges including DC (sustained fields). © 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Defining efficient policies in a general equilibrium model: a multi-objective approach

Macroeconomic policy makers are typically concerned with several indicators of economic performance. We thus propose to tackle the design of macroeconomic policy using Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques. More specifically, we employ Multiobjective Programming (MP) to seek so-called efficient policies. The MP approach is combined with a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We chose use of a CGE model since they have the dual advantage of being consistent with standard economic theory while allowing one to measure the effect(s) of a specific policy with real data. Applying the proposed methodology to Spain (via the 1995 Social Accounting Matrix) we first quantified the trade-offs between two specific policy objectives: growth and inflation, when designing fiscal policy. We then constructed a frontier of efficient policies involving real growth and inflation. In doing so, we found that policy in 1995 Spain displayed some degree of inefficiency with respect to these two policy objectives. We then offer two sets of policy recommendations that, ostensibly, could have helped Spain at the time. The first deals with efficiency independent of the importance given to both growth and inflation by policy makers (we label this set: general policy recommendations). A second set depends on which policy objective is seen as more important by policy makers: increasing growth or controlling inflation (we label this one: objective-specific recommendations).