Identifying Structural Breaks in Stochastic Mortality Models

In recent years, the issue of life expectancy has become of utmost importance to pension providers, insurance companies, and government bodies in the developed world. Significant and consistent improvements in mortality rates and hence life expectancy have led to unprecedented increases in the cost of providing for older ages. This has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models forecasting trends in mortality data to anticipate future life expectancy and hence quantify the costs of providing for future aging populations. Many stochastic models of mortality rates identify linear trends in mortality rates by time, age, and cohort and forecast these trends into the future by using standard statistical methods. These approaches rely on the assumption that structural breaks in the trend do not exist or do not have a significant impact on the mortality forecasts. Recent literature has started to question this assumption. In this paper, we carry out a comprehensive investigation of the presence or of structural breaks in a selection of leading mortality models. We find that structural breaks are present in the majority of cases. In particular, we find that allowing for structural break, where present, improves the forecast result significantly.

La mise en présence dans l'acte d'achat : là où la consommation engendre le scénario

Le présent travail de recherche analyse l’acte d’achat et fait une brèche dans la relation mystérieuse que nous développons avec les biens de consommation. En microéconomie et en sociologie de la consommation, on considère que le consommateur fait des choix rationnels, et ce à travers un processus d’achat (Langlois, 2002). Ce processus est divisé en cinq étapes : la reconnaissance du problème, la recherche d’informations, l’évaluation des alternatives en concurrence, le choix et l’analyse post-achat (Brée, 2004). Bien que l’étape du choix soit certainement l’étape charnière du processus, car elle détermine le choix final menant à l’achat, elle est souvent comprise comme l’aboutissement de calculs préalables et non comme un moment régi par ses propres dynamiques. Le paradigme dominant en matière de choix, la théorie du choix rationnel, avance que nous formulons nos choix en recourant à des calculs d’utilité. Nous évaluons rationnellement les options afin d’optimiser notre situation en sélectionnant le choix qui nous rapporte le plus en nous coûtant le moins (Abell, 1991). Par contre, certains critiques de la théorie du choix rationnel allèguent que la multiplicité de choix encouragée par notre société engendre un stress lors de l’achat qui embrouille le jugement menant au choix. Cela invite à considérer la singularité du moment menant au choix. Que se passe-t-il chez le consommateur lorsqu’il est mis en présence d’un objet? En vérité, les disciplines qui s’intéressent au comportement du consommateur éludent la présence de l’objet comme forme d’influence sur le jugement. Dans le cadre de cette recherche, nous entendons par la mise en présence le moment où un individu est en présence d’un objet spécifique ou d’une représentation d’un objet. Lorsque mis en présence de l’objet, le consommateur fera un jugement qui sera potentiellement relatif aux sensations de beauté (Hutcheson, 1991) et aux émotions provoquées par un objet spécifique. Ainsi, les sens « externes » (la vue, l’ouïe, l’odorat, le goût, le toucher) stimulent un sens « esthétique » : le sens interne de la beauté (Hutcheson, 1991). De plus, il peut survenir, en consommation, lors de la mise en présence que l’émotion prenne la forme d’un jugement (Nussbaum, 2001). On définit les émotions comme un état affectif situationnel dirigé vers une chose (Desmet, 2002). C’est ainsi que la recherche s’est articulé autour de l’hypothèse suivante : de quelle manière la mise en présence influence le jugement du consommateur pendant le processus d’achat? Nous avons mené une enquête inspirée d’une approche qualitative auprès de consommateurs dont les résultats sont ici exposés et discutés. L’enquête tente dans un premier temps de cerner l’impact de la mise en présence dans le processus d’achat. Puis, le récit de magasinage de quatre participants est analysé à l’aide d’éléments tels les critères de choix, les facteurs, les influences et les contraintes. L’enquête montre notamment que la mise en présence intervient et modifie le jugement du consommateur. L’analyse des entretiens met en avant une tendance chez nos participants à la scénarisation tout au long du processus d’achat et particulièrement lors des moments de mise en présence. Nous avons observé que les moments de mise en présence alimentent le scénario imaginé par le consommateur et lui permet de créer des scénarios de vie future en interaction avec certains biens de consommation.

Does uncertainty cause inertia in decision making? An experimental study of the role of regret aversion and indecisiveness

Previous research has shown that often there is clear inertia in individual decision making---that is, a tendency for decision makers to choose a status quo option. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate two potential determinants of inertia in uncertain environments: (i) regret aversion and (ii) ambiguity-driven indecisiveness. I use a between-subjects design with varying conditions to identify the effects of these two mechanisms on choice behavior. In each condition, participants choose between two simple real gambles, one of which is the status quo option. I find that inertia is quite large and that both mechanisms are equally important.

A utilidade das disciplinas na perspectiva dos alunos: estudo exploratório por questionário

RESUMO: Algumas investigações têm apontado que a “motivação dos alunos” influencia a participação e os resultados escolares, destacando-se de um conjunto de outras variáveis. A declaração de Utilidade das disciplinas, atribuída pelos alunos, poderá ser um dos construtos de “motivação” determinantes no “gosto pelas actividades lectivas”, influenciando, hipoteticamente, o empenho na aprendizagem e, a partir daí, os resultados escolares dos alunos. Argumentou-se, nos 3 estudos aqui apresentados, as relações da atribuição de Utilidade das Disciplinas, incluindo a perspectiva do tempo futuro, com o Gosto pelas disciplinas, o empenho na aprendizagem e os resultados dos alunos. De forma a verificar, perante este enquadramento, onde se destacam a Teoria de Expectiva-Valor, o conceito de Perspectiva de Tempo Futuro associado ao conceito de Instrumentalidade, e hipóteses, foi elaborado e aplicado um questionário. Na análise aos questionários realçamos que foi verificado uma tendência para atribuir pelo menos uma disciplina como a que os alunos mais gostam e mais útil consideram; uma justificação com motivos relacionados com a sua perspectiva de vida futura à disciplina que indicam como a mais útil e resultados médios altos a essas mesmas disciplinas. ABSTRACT: Some studies have pointed out that the "motivation of the students’ participation and influence on educational attainment, highlighting a number of other variables. The declaration of Utility of disciplines, awarded by students, may be one of the constructs of "motivation" in determining taste for teaching activities, influencing, hypothetically, the commitment to learning and, thereafter, the students’ school results. It was argued in three studies presented here, the relations of the allocation of Utility of disciplines, including the prospect of future time, with the taste for discipline, the commitment to learning and student outcomes. In order to asses this framework, where we highlight the expectancy-value theory, the concept of Future Time Perspective associated with the concept of Instrumentality, and hypotheses, a questionnaire was designed and applied. In the analysis the questionnaires highlight a trend that was to assign at least one discipline as the students like best and more useful view, a justification with reasons related to their future life prospects which indicate the discipline as the most useful and results medium high on those subjects.

Sintomas depressivos e ansiosos em mães de recém-nascidos com e sem malformações

OBJETIVO: comparar as condições emocionais de mães cujos filhos nascem com malformações visíveis (Grupo M) com as das mães de crianças eutróficas (Grupo E) logo após o nascimento. MÉTODO: foram avaliados os sintomas de ansiedade e depressão de 22 mães de cada grupo por meio do Inventário de Depressão de Beck (BDI) e do Inventário de Ansiedade Traço-Estado (IDATE). Foram excluídas as mães portadoras de deficiência sensorial incapacitante, HIV, distúrbios psiquiátricos e síndromes genéticas. Os dados foram complementados com consultas a prontuários médicos da criança e da mãe. Para análise comparativa entre as medianas dos grupos foi utilizado o teste não-paramétrico U de Mann-Whitney; para amostras independentes e para os escores indicativos de sintomas clínicos, o teste exato de Fisher e o teste do χ2. RESULTADOS: houve diferenças significativas nas medianas dos escores das três subescalas (ansiedade-traço, ansiedade-estado e disforia/depressão) entre os dois grupos de mães. Houve uma porcentagem significativamente maior de mães do Grupo M com escores indicativos de sinais clínicos para depressão ou ansiedade no pós-parto imediato e, para ambos os quadros, quando comparadas com mães do Grupo E. Os resultados podem ser decorrentes de traços de personalidade materna, visto que os índices de ansiedade-traço eram significativamente maiores nas mães de crianças malformadas, mas especialmente pelo estado da criança, seu encaminhamento para a UTI e sua condição de vida futura. CONCLUSÕES: a porcentagem de mães de recém-nascidos com malformações visíveis que apresentou escores indicativos de sinais clínicos para ansiedade, depressão e ambos sugerem a necessidade de suporte, individual ou em grupo.

Desempenho ortográfico de escolares do 2º ao 5º ano: proposta de elaboração de um protocolo de avaliação da ortografia

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

[Killing and dignity of animals: a problem for veterinarians?]

Killing of animals is an important task to be performed by veterinarians. Killing decisions and their implementation often raise ethical questions. As a result of an interdisciplinary workshop targeting the subject "killing of animals" with veterinarians and ethicists, a three-dimensional dimension scheme was developed. Whereas the first two dimensions are focused on the animal's past and future life and are discussed with regard to life quality and life accomplishment (the "telos"), the third dimension incorporates the reason to kill and may integrate the concept of dignity. This form of dignity and the weighing of interests are applied to example scenarios and the resulting responsibilities of veterinarians and society are discussed.

Transport of Hydraulic Fracturing Water and Wastes in the Susquehanna River Basin, Pennsylvania

The development of the Marcellus Shale gas play in Pennsylvania and the northeastern United States has resulted in significant amounts of water and wastes transported by truck over roadways. This study used geographic information systems (GIS) to quantify truck travel distances via both the preferred routes (minimum distance while also favoring higher-order roads) as well as, where available, the likely actual distances for freshwater and waste transport between pertinent locations (e. g., gas wells, treatment facilities, freshwater sources). Results show that truck travel distances in the Susquehanna River Basin are greater than those used in prior life-cycle assessments of tight shale gas. When compared to likely actual transport distances, if policies were instituted to constrain truck travel to the closest destination and higher-order roads, transport mileage reductions of 40-80% could be realized. Using reasonable assumptions of current practices, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with water and waste hauling were calculated to be 70-157 MT CO2 eq per gas well. Furthermore, empty so-called backhaul trips, such as to freshwater withdrawal sites or returning from deep well injection sites, were found to increase emissions by an additional 30%, underscoring the importance of including return trips in the analysis. The results should inform future life-cycle assessments of tight shale gases in managed watersheds and help local and regional governments plan for impacts of transportation on local infrastructure. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Exculpating victims and the reversal of hindsight bias

This experiment examines the role of the hindsight bias and of motivational forces such as the motive to believe in a just world as possible causes of the derogation of victims effect in the context of rape. The hindsight bias is the tendency of people to falsely believe that they would have predicted the outcome of an event once the outcome is known. Participants read descriptions of an interaction between a man and a woman that ended with one of four possible outcomes: The woman was raped with very severe consequences for her future life vs. rape with only minor consequences for her future life vs. no rape (assailant was forced to retreat by the strong defense of the victim) vs. no outcome information. To test motivational predictions the hindsight bias and the derogation effect were analyzed as a consequence of the sex of participants, the seriousness of the consequences of the rape, the belief in a just world and the acceptance of rape myths. Results supported the assumption that derogation effects are at least partly driven by hindsight bias and that motivational processes work via the hindsight bias. However, in this study we did not find a classical hindsight bias but a reversed hindsight bias: Especially female participants in the severe consequences of rape condition and those participants who did not accept rape myths rated the likelihood of rape in the rape outcome condition as smaller than participants in the no outcome information control group. They also derogated the victim less than participants in the no information control group. These effects were interpreted in terms of self-serving or in-group serving functions of the hindsight bias. Finally no support was found for the assumption that derogation effects are driven by the motive to believe in a just world.

La significación ontológico-existencial del tiempo en Gabriel Marcel

Gabriel Marcel entiende que el tiempo no puede considerarse como un dato objetivo solamente, sino que tiene su sentido primordial en su carácter vivido. Así, el tiempo se comprende desde el registro del presente, con su tensión de pasado y futuro. La vida misma supone una cierta interpretación del tiempo vivido, articulándola a partir de acontecimientos vitales centrales en la propia vida y orientada a una trascendencia que la signifique. Pero es en las experiencias cúlmenes de la vida humana, como el sacrificio, la fidelidad, la esperanza y la fe que el tiempo roza la eternidad, entendida como plenitud de lo vivido.

Zum Einfluss vorschulischer Kinderbetreuung auf den Bildungsweg und den erwarteten Erfolg am Arbeitsmarkt

In dem Beitrag wird der Frage nachgegangen, welchen Einfluss die Inanspruchnahme frühkindlicher Bildungs- und Betreuungsangebote auf den späteren Schulbesuch von Kindern hat und wie sich dies längerfristig auf die zu erwartenden Lebenseinkommen und damit einhergehend den langfristigen volkswirtschaftlichen Nutzen auswirkt. Untersucht werden Kinder in Deutschland der Jahrgänge 1990 bis 1995. Die Datengrundlage liefert das Sozio-oekonomische Panel (SOEP). Der Schwerpunkt der Analysen liegt auf der Bestimmung des Effekts des Krippenbesuchs auf die spätere Einstufung in die verschiedenen Schultypen in Abhängigkeit der sozialen Herkunft und des Migrationshintergrunds der Kinder. Ausgehend von diesen Schätzungen werden dann die zu erwartenden, über den Bildungsabschluss vermittelten Auswirkungen des Krippenbesuchs auf das spätere Lebenseinkommen bestimmt, um einen Eindruck der langfristigen volkswirtschaftlichen Folgen vorschulischer Kinderbetreuung zu erhalten. Der Beitrag zeigt, dass der Krippenbesuch die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Einstufung ins Gymnasium nach Kontrolle relevanter Drittvariablen im Schnitt um rund 14 Prozentpunkte erhöht. Dieser Einfluss entspricht einem erwarteten Lebenseinkommenszuwachs von rund 27000 Euro. Wird dieser Ertrag auf den Zeitpunkt des Krippenbesuchs abdiskontiert und den Kosten eines durchschnittlichen Krippenbesuchs in der Höhe von rund 8000 Euro gegenübergestellt, so ergibt sich ein Kosten-Nutzen-Verhältnis von 1 zu 2.7. (DIPF/Orig.).

Hādhihi qaṣīdah jāmiʻah li-ghālib aḥwāl yawm al-qiyāmah wa-ismuhā Qilādat al-durr al-manthūr fī dhikr al-baʻth wa-al-nushūr : manuscript, undated

Paginated 1-5 in pencil in Arabic numerals.

Peri tēs aiōniou anapauseōs tōn pistōn ...

Translation into modern Greek of the author's: The saints' everlasting rest.

King's College lectures on immortality,

Imperfect: Title page wanting.

Le credenze d'oltretomba nelle opere letterarie dell'antichità classica.

Mode of access: Internet.