Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Influence of chemical interesterification on thermal behavior, microstructure, polymorphism and crystallization properties of canola oil and fully hydrogenated cottonseed oil blends

This work evaluated chemical interesterification of canola oil (CaO) and fully hydrogenated cottonseed oil (FHCSO) blends, with 20%, 25%, 30%, 35% and 40%(w/w) FHCSO content. Interesterification produced reduction of trisaturated and increase in monounsaturated and diunsaturated triacylglycerols contents, which caused important changes in temperatures and enthalpies associated with the crystallization and melting thermograms. It was verified reduction in medium crystal diameter in all blends, in addition crystal morphology modification. Crystallization kinetics revealed that crystal formation induction period and maximum solid fat content were altered according to FHCSO content in original blends and as a result of random rearrangement. Changes in Avrami constant (k) and exponent (n) indicated, respectively, that interesterification decreased crystallization rates and altered crystalline morphology. However, X-ray diffraction analyses showed randomization did not change the original crystalline polymorphism. The original and interesterified blends had significant predominance of beta` polymorph, which is interesting for several food applications. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

EFFECT OF CHEMICAL INTERESTERIFICATION ON PHYSICOCHEMICAL PROPERTIES AND INDUSTRIAL APPLICATIONS OF CANOLA OIL AND FULLY HYDROGENATED COTTONSEED OIL BLENDS

Blends of canola oil (CO) and fully hydrogenated cottonseed oil (FHCSO), with 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40% FHCSO (w/w) were interesterified under the following conditions: 0.4% sodium methoxide, 500 rpm stirring, 100C, 20 min. The original and interesterified blends were examined for triacylglycerol composition, melting point, solid fat content (SFC) and consistency. Interesterification caused considerable rearrangement of triacylglycerol species, reduction of trisaturated triacylglycerol content and increase in disaturated-monounsaturated and monosaturated-diunsaturated triacylglycerols in all blends, resulting in lowering of respective melting points. The interesterified blends showed reduced SFC at all temperatures and more linear melting profiles if compared with the original blends. Consistency, expressed as yield value, significantly decreased after the reaction. Iso-solid curves indicated eutectic interactions for the original blends, which were eliminated after randomization. The 80:20, 75:25, 70:30 and 65:35 (w/w) CO: FHCSO interesterified blends showed characteristics which are appropriate for their application as soft margarines, spreads, fat for bakery/all-purpose shortenings, and icing shortenings, respectively. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS Recently, a number of studies have suggested a direct relationship between trans isomers and increased risk of vascular disease. In response, many health organizations have recommended reducing consumption of foods containing trans fatty acids. In this connection, chemical interesterification has proven the main alternative for obtaining plastic fats that have low trans isomer content or are even trans isomer free. This work proposes to evaluate the chemical interesterification of binary blends of canola oil and fully hydrogenated cottonseed oil and the specific potential application of these interesterified blends in food products.

Thermal Behavior, Microstructure, Polymorphism, and Crystallization Properties of Zero Trans Fats from Soybean Oil and Fully Hydrogenated Soybean Oil

Blends of soybean oil (SO) and fully hydrogenated soybean oil (FHSBO), with 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50% (w/w) FHSBO content were interesterified under the following conditions: 20 min reaction time, 0.4% sodium methoxide catalyst, and 500 rpm stirring speed, at 100 A degrees C. The original and interesterified blends were examined for triacylglycerol composition, thermal behavior, microstructure, crystallization kinetics, and polymorphism. Interesterification produced substantial rearrangement of the triacylglycerol species in all the blends, reduction of trisaturated triacylglycerol content and increase in monounsaturated-disaturated and diunsaturated-monosaturated triacylglycerols. Evaluation of thermal behavior parameters showed linear relations with FHSBO content in the original blends. Blend melting and crystallization thermograms were significantly modified by the randomization. Interesterification caused significant reductions in maximum crystal diameter in all blends, in addition to modifying crystal morphology. Characterization of crystallization kinetics revealed that crystal formation induction period (tau (SFC)) and maximum solid fat content (SFC(max)) were altered according to FHSBO content in the original blends and as a result of the random rearrangement. Changes in Avrami constant (k) and exponent (n) indicated, respectively, that-as compared with the original blends-interesterification decreased crystallization velocities and modified crystallization processes, altering crystalline morphology and nucleation mechanism. X-ray diffraction analyses revealed that interesterification altered crystalline polymorphism. The interesterified blends showed a predominance of the beta` polymorph, which is of more interest for food applications.

Zero trans fats from soybean oil and fully hydrogenated soybean oil: Physico-chemical properties and food applications

Blends of soybean oil (50) and fully hydrogenated soybean oil (FHSBO), with 10%, 20%, 30%, 40% and 50% FHSBO (w/w) content were interesterified under the following conditions: 0.4% sodium methoxide, 500 rpm stirring, 100 degrees C, 20 min. The original and interesterified blends were examined for triacylglycerol composition, melting point, solid fat content (SFC) and consistency. Interesterification caused considerable rearrangement of triacylglycerol species, reduction of trisaturated triacylglycerol content and increase in monounsaturated and diunsaturated triacylglycerols, resulting in lowering of respective melting points. The interesterified blends displayed reduced SFC at all temperatures and more linear melting profiles as compared with the original blends. Yield values showed increased plasticity in the blends after the reaction. Isosolid diagrams before and after the reaction showed no eutectic interactions. The 90:10, 80:20, 70:30 and 60:40 interesterified SO:FHSBO blends displayed characteristics suited to application, respectively, as liquid shortening, table margarine, baking/confectionery fat and all-purpose shortenings/biscuit-filing base. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multicollinearity and financial constraint in investment decisions: a Bayesian generalized ridge regression

This paper addresses the investment decisions considering the presence of financial constraints of 373 large Brazilian firms from 1997 to 2004, using panel data. A Bayesian econometric model was used considering ridge regression for multicollinearity problems among the variables in the model. Prior distributions are assumed for the parameters, classifying the model into random or fixed effects. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters, considering normal and Student t distributions for the error and assumed that the initial values for the lagged dependent variable are not fixed, but generated by a random process. The recursive predictive density criterion was used for model comparisons. Twenty models were tested and the results indicated that multicollinearity does influence the value of the estimated parameters. Controlling for capital intensity, financial constraints are found to be more important for capital-intensive firms, probably due to their lower profitability indexes, higher fixed costs and higher degree of property diversification.

Bayesian analysis of the error correction model

This paper presents a method for estimating the posterior probability density of the cointegrating rank of a multivariate error correction model. A second contribution is the careful elicitation of the prior for the cointegrating vectors derived from a prior on the cointegrating space. This prior obtains naturally from treating the cointegrating space as the parameter of interest in inference and overcomes problems previously encountered in Bayesian cointegration analysis. Using this new prior and Laplace approximation, an estimator for the posterior probability of the rank is given. The approach performs well compared with information criteria in Monte Carlo experiments. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Super-CHO - A cell line capable of autocrine growth under fully defined protein-free conditions

Chinese Hamster Ovary (CHO) cells are widely used for the large scale production of recombinant biopharmaceuticals. Growth of the CHO-K1 cell line has been demonstrated in serum-free medium containing insulin, transferrin and selenium. In an attempt to get autocrine growth in protein-free medium, DNA coding for insulin and transferrin production was transfected into CHO-K1 cells. Transferrin was expressed well, with clones secreting approximately 1000 ng/10(6)cells/24h. Insulin was poorly expressed, with rates peaking at 5 ng/10(6)cells/24h. Characterisation of the secreted insulin indicated that the CHO cells were incompletely processing the insulin molecule. Site-directed mutagenesis was used to introduce a furin (prohormone converting enzyme) recognition sequence into the insulin molecule, allowing the production of active insulin. However, the levels were still too low to support autocrine growth. Further investigations revealed insulin degrading activity (presumably due to the presence of insulin degrading enzymes) in the cytoplasm of CHO cells. To overcome these problems insulin-like growth factor I (instead of insulin) was transfected into the cells. IGF-1 was completely processed and expressed at rates greater than 500 ng/10(6)cells/24h. In this paper we report autonomous growth of the transfected CHO-K1 cell line expressing transferrin and IGF-1 in protein-free medium without the addition of exogenous growth factors. Growth rates and final cell densities of these cells were identical to that of the parent cell line CHO-K1 growing in insulin, transferrin, and selenium supplemented serum-free media.

Molecular characterization of the Hepatitis B virus genotypes in Colombia: A Bayesian inference on the genotype F

Hepatitis B is a worldwide health problem affecting about 2 billion people and more than 350 million are chronic carriers of the virus. Nine HBV genotypes (A to I) have been described. The geographical distribution of HBV genotypes is not completely understood due to the limited number of samples from some parts of the world. One such example is Colombia, in which few studies have described the HBV genotypes. In this study, we characterized HBV genotypes in 143 HBsAg-positive volunteer blood donors from Colombia. A fragment of 1306 bp partially comprising HBsAg and the DNA polymerase coding regions (S/POL) was amplified and sequenced. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses were conducted using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to obtain the maximum clade credibility (MCC) tree using BEAST v.1.5.3. Of all samples, 68 were positive and 52 were successfully sequenced. Genotype F was the most prevalent in this population (77%) - subgenotypes F3 (75%) and Fib (2%). Genotype G (7.7%) and subgenotype A2 (15.3%) were also found. Genotype G sequence analysis suggests distinct introductions of this genotype in the country. Furthermore, we estimated the time of the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) for each HBV/F subgenotype and also for Colombian F3 sequences using two different datasets: (i) 77 sequences comprising 1306 bp of S/POL region and (ii) 283 sequences comprising 681 bp of S/POL region. We also used two other previously estimated evolutionary rates: (i) 2.60 x 10(-4) s/s/y and (ii) 1.5 x 10(-5) s/s/y. Here we report the HBV genotypes circulating in Colombia and estimated the TMRCA for the four different subgenotypes of genotype F. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Phylogenetic Analysis of Hepatitis B Virus Genotype F Complete Genome Sequences From Chilean Patients With Chronic Infection

Molecular epidemiological data concerning the hepatitis B virus (HBV) in Chile are not known completely. Since the HBV genotype F is the most prevalent in the country, the goal of this study was to obtain full HBV genome sequences from patients infected chronically in order to determine their subgenotypes and the occurrence of resistance-associated mutations. Twenty-one serum samples from antiviral drug-naive patients with chronic hepatitis B were subjected to full-length PCR amplification, and both strands of the whole genomes were fully sequenced. Phylogenetic analyses were performed along with reference sequences available from GenBank (n = 290). The sequences were aligned using Clustal X and edited in the SE-AL software. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses were conducted by Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations (MCMC) for 10 million generations in order to obtain the substitution tree using BEAST. The sequences were also analyzed for the presence of primary drug resistance mutations using CodonCode Aligner Software. The phylogenetic analyses indicated that all sequences were found to be the HBV subgenotype F1b, clustered into four different groups, suggesting that diverse lineages of this subgenotype may be circulating within this population of Chilean patients. J. Med. Virol. 83: 1530-1536, 2011. (C) 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A Bayesian approach to fuzzy hypotheses testing for the estimation of optimal age for vaccination against measles

Fuzzy Bayesian tests were performed to evaluate whether the mother`s seroprevalence and children`s seroconversion to measles vaccine could be considered as ""high"" or ""low"". The results of the tests were aggregated into a fuzzy rule-based model structure, which would allow an expert to influence the model results. The linguistic model was developed considering four input variables. As the model output, we obtain the recommended age-specific vaccine coverage. The inputs of the fuzzy rules are fuzzy sets and the outputs are constant functions, performing the simplest Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model. This fuzzy approach is compared to a classical one, where the classical Bayes test was performed. Although the fuzzy and classical performances were similar, the fuzzy approach was more detailed and revealed important differences. In addition to taking into account subjective information in the form of fuzzy hypotheses it can be intuitively grasped by the decision maker. Finally, we show that the Bayesian test of fuzzy hypotheses is an interesting approach from the theoretical point of view, in the sense that it combines two complementary areas of investigation, normally seen as competitive. (C) 2007 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.