Utilisation of analogous climate locations to produce resilient biodiversity plantings for infrastructure developments

Developers have an obligation to biodiversity when considering the impact their development may have on the environment, with some choosing to go beyond the legal requirement for planning consent. Climate change projections over the 21st century indicate a climate warming and thus the species selected for habitat creation need to be able to withstand the pressures associated with these forecasts. A process is therefore required to identify resilient plantings for sites subject to climate change. Local government ecologists were consulted on their views on the use of plants of non-native provenance or how they consider resilience to climate change as part of their planting recommendations. There are mixed attitudes towards non-native species, but with studies already showing the impact climate change is having on biodiversity, action needs to be taken to limit further biodiversity loss, particularly given the heavily fragmented landscape preventing natural migration. A methodology has been developed to provide planners and developers with recommendations for plant species that are currently adapted to the climate the UK will experience in the future. A climate matching technique, that employs a GIS, allows the identification of European locations that currently experience the predicted level of climate change at a given UK location. Once an appropriate location has been selected, the plant species present in this area are then investigated for suitability for planting in the UK. The methodology was trialled at one site, Eastern Quarry in Kent, and suitable climate matched locations included areas in north-western France. Through the acquisition of plant species data via site visits and online published material, a species list was created, which considered original habitat design, but with added resilience to climate change.

Padrões de organização das assembleias de aves florestais em uma paisagem fragmentada de Floresta Atlântica

Brazil is home to one of the richest avifaunas the world, which is subject to high levels of environmental degradation, in particular forest fragmentation. The Atlantic Forest biome depicts this history of devastation and today remains as small isolated fragments on highly degraded landscapes. This project aimed to evaluate the effects of forest fragmentation in an area with Atlantic Forest remnants in northern Paraná (Brazil) on the distribution and the organization of assemblage of forest birds and tested the hypothesis that the structure of the assembly in the fragments is different than expected by chance. We did four qualitative samplings of birds in three sets of forest fragments in the landscape, each with three fragments: large, medium and small. The method applied in the sampling was point counts along transects, traveled randomly for four hours in each fragment. Samples were taken in two periods: from September to November / 2013, and between March and May / 2014. The structure of the meeting was assessed by rates of co-occurring species (Checkerboard and CScore) and α diversity patterns (wealth) and β (turnover of species), while the landscape structure was analyzed from the parameters: area, distance between fragments, fractal dimension, edge density, fragment shape index and nuclear area index. The null hypothesis of no structure in the assembly of birds in the landscape was tested with null models from the co-occurrence indexes. The effects of landscape structure on the assembly of the structure were analyzed by the Mantel test and principal component analysis (PCA). The assembly of the structure in the landscape showed a pattern of spatiotemporal organization significantly different from that expected by chance, revealing a structure most influenced by segregation of the species. The fragments showed significant differences in richness, unlike sets of fragments, indicating relative homogeneity in the landscape structure. The differences between the size and the distance between the fragments significantly influenced the patterns of organization of the meeting of forest birds in the landscape and patterns of α and β diversity, indicating that the higher the fragment and smaller distances between them, more the standard of species cooccurrence is different than expected by chance. Thus, the fragmented landscape of remnants of the northern Paraná Atlantic Forest still has availability of environmental resources and physical characteristics that allow a persistent organizational structure of the assembly of forest birds in space over time.

Ecological drivers of a vector borne pathogen: distribution and abundance of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato and its vector Ixodes ricinus in Scotland

Vector-borne disease emergence in recent decades has been associated with different environmental drivers including changes in habitat, hosts and climate. Lyme borreliosis is among the most important vector-borne diseases in the Northern hemisphere and is an emerging disease in Scotland. Transmitted by Ixodid tick vectors between large numbers of wild vertebrate host species, Lyme borreliosis is caused by bacteria from the Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato species group. Ecological studies can inform how environmental factors such as host abundance and community composition, habitat and landscape heterogeneity contribute to spatial and temporal variation in risk from B. burgdorferi s.l. In this thesis a range of approaches were used to investigate the effects of vertebrate host communities and individual host species as drivers of B. burgdorferi s.l. dynamics and its tick vector Ixodes ricinus. Host species differ in reservoir competence for B. burgdorferi s.l. and as hosts for ticks. Deer are incompetent transmission hosts for B. burgdorferi s.l. but are significant hosts of all life-stages of I. ricinus. Rodents and birds are important transmission hosts of B. burgdorferi s.l. and common hosts of immature life-stages of I. ricinus. In this thesis, surveys of woodland sites revealed variable effects of deer density on B. burgdorferi prevalence, from no effect (Chapter 2) to a possible ‘dilution’ effect resulting in lower prevalence at higher deer densities (Chapter 3). An invasive species in Scotland, the grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis), was found to host diverse genotypes of B. burgdorferi s.l. and may act as a spill-over host for strains maintained by native host species (Chapter 4). Habitat fragmentation may alter the dynamics of B. burgdorferi s.l. via effects on the host community and host movements. In this thesis, there was lack of persistence of the rodent associated genospecies of B. burgdorferi s.l. within a naturally fragmented landscape (Chapter 3). Rodent host biology, particularly population cycles and dispersal ability are likely to affect pathogen persistence and recolonization in fragmented habitats. Heterogeneity in disease dynamics can occur spatially and temporally due to differences in the host community, habitat and climatic factors. Higher numbers of I. ricinus nymphs, and a higher probability of detecting a nymph infected with B. burgdorferi s.l., were found in areas with warmer climates estimated by growing degree days (Chapter 2). The ground vegetation type associated with the highest number of I. ricinus nymphs varied between studies in this thesis (Chapter 2 & 3) and does not appear to be a reliable predictor across large areas. B. burgdorferi s.l. prevalence and genospecies composition was highly variable for the same sites sampled in subsequent years (Chapter 2). This suggests that dynamic variables such as reservoir host densities and deer should be measured as well as more static habitat and climatic factors to understand the drivers of B. burgdorferi s.l. infection in ticks. Heterogeneity in parasite loads amongst hosts is a common finding which has implications for disease ecology and management. Using a 17-year data set for tick infestations in a wild bird community in Scotland, different effects of age and sex on tick burdens were found among four species of passerine bird (Chapter 5). There were also different rates of decline in tick burdens among bird species in response to a long term decrease in questing tick pressure over the study. Species specific patterns may be driven by differences in behaviour and immunity and highlight the importance of comparative approaches. Combining whole genome sequencing (WGS) and population genetics approaches offers a novel approach to identify ecological drivers of pathogen populations. An initial analysis of WGS from B. burgdorferi s.s. isolates sampled 16 years apart suggests that there is a signal of measurable evolution (Chapter 6). This suggests demographic analyses may be applied to understand ecological and evolutionary processes of these bacteria. This work shows how host communities, habitat and climatic factors can affect the local transmission dynamics of B. burgdorferi s.l. and the potential risk of infection to humans. Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in pathogen dynamics poses challenges for the prediction of risk. New tools such as WGS of the pathogen (Chapter 6) and blood meal analysis techniques will add power to future studies on the ecology and evolution of B. burgdorferi s.l.

Trajectoire de la réforme de l’inspection en Belgique francophone

L’article montre que la trajectoire de la réforme de l’inspection en Fédération Wallonie-Bruxelles (FWB) est loin d’être linéaire. Elle est marquée par des processus de reconversion institutionnelle d’institutions existantes, mais aussi de sédimentation et d’hybridation entre l’« ancien » et le « nouveau ». En effet, elle participe à la fois d’une politique de changement institutionnel ambitieuse et de construction du « système scolaire » dans un paysage au départ assez décentralisé et fragmenté ; mais, simultanément, elle est marquée par des « contraintes » institutionnelles existantes, des négociations et transactions entre différents acteurs politiques et scolaires qui déterminent les contours et les compétences du nouveau corps d’inspection en gestation après le décret de 2007 comme les rôles des inspecteurs et leur division du travail avec d’autres acteurs. De plus, dans la mise en œuvre du décret, les orientations normatives, cognitives et professionnelles des acteurs, la permanence de la diversité institutionnelle des réseaux comme la variance structurelle des territoires « modulent » et « tempèrent » l’ambition du changement institutionnel affiché par la politique de la FWB. Cela change mais pas complètement : il y a un processus de conversion partielle et « en tension » de l’institution qu’est l’inspection.

Foraging by the endangered black-breasted button-quail (Turnix melanogaster) within fragmented rainforest of an agricultural landscape

We studied the foraging habitat of the endangered black-breasted button-quail (Turnix melanogaster) in 13 rainforest patches of an agricultural landscape (23.4 km(2)) in eastern Australia to assess its use of fragmented habitats outside conservation reserves. The species foraged only in the three largest patches (17.4, 40.0, 63.8 ha in size), all of which were connected to open eucalypt forest, and in intact rainforest. Occurrence of birds was greatest in the largest patch. The maximum number of individuals within the study area was estimated to be 22. Radio-tracking of nine birds revealed that three were resident in the largest patch for periods of over 100 days; no movements between patches were detected. Three radio-tagged birds were taken by avian and mammalian predators. Our results indicated that the long-term future of the species in agricultural landscapes is bleak and that management action is urgently needed to arrest its decline in these ecosystems, (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effects of cattle grazing on plant-pollinator communities in a fragmented Mediterranean landscape

The main aims of this study were to assess grazing impacts on bee communities in fragmented mediterranean shrubland (phrygana) and woodland habitats that also experience frequent wildfires, and to explain the mechanisms by which these impacts occur. Fieldwork was carried out in 1999 and 2000 on Mount Carmel, in northern Israel, a known hot-spot for bee diversity. Habitats with a range of post-burn ages and varying intensities of cattle grazing were surveyed by transect recording, grazing levels, and the diversity and abundance of both flowers and bees were measured. The species richness of both bees and flowers were highest at moderate to high grazing intensities, and path-analysis indicated that the effects of both grazing and fire on bee diversity were mediated mainly through changes in flower diversity, herb flowers being more important than shrubs. The abundance of bees increased with intensified grazing pressure even at the highest levels surveyed. Surprisingly though, changes in bee abundance at high grazing levels were not caused directly by changes in flower cover. The variation in bee abundance may have been due to higher numbers of solitary bees from the family Halictidae in grazed sites, where compacted ground (nesting resource) and composites (forage resource) were abundant. The effects of grazing on plants were clearest in the intermediate-aged sites, where cattle inhibited the growth of some of the dominant shrubs, creating or maintaining more open patches where light-demanding herbs could grow, thus allowing a diverse flora to develop. Overall, bee communities benefit from a relatively high level of grazing in phrygana. Although bee and flower diversity may decrease under very heavy grazing, the present levels of grazing on Mount Carmel appear to have only beneficial effects on the bee community.

Successful carnivore identification with faecal DNA across a fragmented Amazonian landscape

The use of scat surveys to obtain DNA has been well documented in temperate areas, where DNA preservation may be more effective than in tropical forests. Samples obtained in the tropics are often exposed to high humidity, warm temperatures, frequent rain and intense sunlight, all of which can rapidly degrade DNA. Despite these potential problems, we demonstrate successful mtDNA amplification and sequencing for faeces of carnivores collected in tropical conditions and quantify how sample condition and environmental variables influence the success of PCR amplification and species identification. Additionally, the feasibility of genotyping nuclear microsatellites from jaguar (Panthera onca) faeces was investigated. From October 2007 to December 2008, 93 faecal samples were collected in the southern Brazilian Amazon. A total of eight carnivore species was successfully identified from 71% of all samples obtained. Information theoretic analysis revealed that the number of PCR attempts before a successful sequence was an important negative predictor across all three responses (success of species identification, success of species identification from the first sequence and PCR amplification success), whereas the relative importance of the other three predictors (sample condition, season and distance from forest edge) varied between the three responses. Nuclear microsatellite amplification from jaguar faeces had lower success rates (15-44%) compared with those of the mtDNA marker. Our results show that DNA obtained from faecal samples works efficiently for carnivore species identification in the Amazon forest and also shows potential for nuclear DNA analysis, thus providing a valuable tool for genetic, ecological and conservation studies.

Experimental assessment of Heliconia acuminata growth in a fragmented Amazonian landscape

1 Fragmentation severely alters physical conditions in forest understories, but few studies have connected these changes to demographic impacts on forest species using detailed experimental examination at the individual and population levels.2 Using a 32-month, reciprocal-transplant experiment, we show that individuals of the Amazonian understory herb Heliconia acuminata transplanted into forest fragments lost over 20% of their vegetative shoots, while those transplanted to continuous forest showed a slight gain. The leaf area of plants in fragments also increased at half the rate it did in continuous forest sites.3 It appears that the normal dry season stresses to which forest understorey plants are exposed are greatly exacerbated in fragments, causing plants to shed shoots and leaves.4 the observed shifts in size could help explain why populations in fragments are more skewed towards smaller demographic stage classes than those in continuous forest. These shifts in size structure could also result in reduced abundances of flowering plants, as reproduction in H. acuminata is positively correlated with shoot number.5 Fragmentation-related changes in growth rates resulting from abiotic stress may have significant demographic consequences.

Successful carnivore identification with faecal DNA across a fragmented Amazonian landscape

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Environmental suitability of a highly fragmented and heterogeneous landscape for forest bird species in south-eastern Brazil

Assessment of the suitability of anthropogenic landscapes for wildlife species is crucial for setting priorities for biodiversity conservation. This study aimed to analyse the environmental suitability of a highly fragmented region of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, one of the world's 25 recognized biodiversity hotspots, for forest bird species. Eight forest bird species were selected for the analyses, based on point counts (n = 122) conducted in April-September 2006 and January-March 2009. Six additional variables (landscape diversity, distance from forest and streams, aspect, elevation and slope) were modelled in Maxent for (1) actual and (2) simulated land cover, based on the forest expansion required by existing Brazilian forest legislation. Models were evaluated by bootstrap or jackknife methods and their performance was assessed by AUC, omission error, binomial probability or p value. All predictive models were statistically significant, with high AUC values and low omission errors. A small proportion of the actual landscape (24.41 +/- 6.31%) was suitable for forest bird species. The simulated landscapes lead to an increase of c. 30% in total suitable areas. In average, models predicted a small increase (23.69 +/- 6.95%) in the area of suitable native forest for bird species. Being close to forest increased the environmental suitability of landscapes for all bird species; landscape diversity was also a significant factor for some species. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that species distribution modelling (SDM) successfully predicted bird distribution across a heterogeneous landscape at fine spatial resolution, as all models were biologically relevant and statistically significant. The use of landscape variables as predictors contributed significantly to the results, particularly for species distributions over small extents and at fine scales. This is the first study to evaluate the environmental suitability of the remaining Brazilian Atlantic Forest for bird species in an agricultural landscape, and provides important additional data for regional environmental planning.

Connectivity of fragmented amphibian populations in a neotropical landscape

A high proportion of amphibian species are threatened with extinction globally, and habitat loss and degradation are the most frequently implicated causes. Rapid deforestation for the establishment of agricultural production is a primary driver of habitat loss in tropical zones where amphibian diversity is highest. Land-cover change affects native assemblages, in part, through the reduction of habitat area and the reduction of movement among remnant populations. Decreased gene flow contributes to loss of genetic diversity, which limits the ability of local populations to respond to further environmental changes. The focus of this dissertation is on the degree to which common land uses in Sarapiquí, Costa Rica impede the movement of two common amphibian species. First, I used field experiments, including displacement trials, and a behavioral landscape ecology framework to investigate the resistance of pastures to movement of Oophaga pumilio. Results from experiments demonstrate that pastures do impede movement of O. pumilio relative to forest. Microclimatic effects on movement performance as well as limited perceptual ranges likely contribute to reduced return rates through pastures. Next, I linked local processes to landscape scale estimates of resistance. I conducted experiments to measure habitat-specific costs to movement for O. pumilio and Craugastor bransfodrii, and then used experimental results to parameterize connectivity models. Model validation indicated highest support for resistance estimates generated from responses to land-use specific microclimates for both species and to predator encounters for O. pumilio. Finally, I used abundance and experiment-derived resistance estimates to analyze the effects of prevalent land uses on population genetic structure of the two focal species. While O. pumilio did not exhibit a strong response to landscape heterogeneity and was primarily structured by distances among sites, C. bransfordii genetic variation was explained by resistance estimates from abundance and experiment data. Collectivity, this work demonstrates that common land uses can offer different levels of resistance to amphibian movements in Sarapiquí and illustrates the value of investigating local scales processes to inform interpretation of landscape-scale patterns.^

Connectivity of fragmented amphibian populations in a Neotropical landscape

A high proportion of amphibian species are threatened with extinction globally, and habitat loss and degradation are the most frequently implicated causes. Rapid deforestation for the establishment of agricultural production is a primary driver of habitat loss in tropical zones where amphibian diversity is highest. Land-cover change affects native assemblages, in part, through the reduction of habitat area and the reduction of movement among remnant populations. Decreased gene flow contributes to loss of genetic diversity, which limits the ability of local populations to respond to further environmental changes. The focus of this dissertation is on the degree to which common land uses in Sarapiquí, Costa Rica impede the movement of two common amphibian species. First, I used field experiments, including displacement trials, and a behavioral landscape ecology framework to investigate the resistance of pastures to movement of Oophaga pumilio. Results from experiments demonstrate that pastures do impede movement of O. pumilio relative to forest. Microclimatic effects on movement performance as well as limited perceptual ranges likely contribute to reduced return rates through pastures. Next, I linked local processes to landscape scale estimates of resistance. I conducted experiments to measure habitat-specific costs to movement for O. pumilio and Craugastor bransfodrii, and then used experimental results to parameterize connectivity models. Model validation indicated highest support for resistance estimates generated from responses to land-use specific microclimates for both species and to predator encounters for O. pumilio. Finally, I used abundance and experiment-derived resistance estimates to analyze the effects of prevalent land uses on population genetic structure of the two focal species. While O. pumilio did not exhibit a strong response to landscape heterogeneity and was primarily structured by distances among sites, C. bransfordii genetic variation was explained by resistance estimates from abundance and experiment data. Collectivity, this work demonstrates that common land uses can offer different levels of resistance to amphibian movements in Sarapiquí and illustrates the value of investigating local scales processes to inform interpretation of landscape-scale patterns.

Beyond the Fragmentation Threshold Hypothesis: Regime Shifts in Biodiversity Across Fragmented Landscapes

Ecological systems are vulnerable to irreversible change when key system properties are pushed over thresholds, resulting in the loss of resilience and the precipitation of a regime shift. Perhaps the most important of such properties in human-modified landscapes is the total amount of remnant native vegetation. In a seminal study Andren proposed the existence of a fragmentation threshold in the total amount of remnant vegetation, below which landscape-scale connectivity is eroded and local species richness and abundance become dependent on patch size. Despite the fact that species patch-area effects have been a mainstay of conservation science there has yet to be a robust empirical evaluation of this hypothesis. Here we present and test a new conceptual model describing the mechanisms and consequences of biodiversity change in fragmented landscapes, identifying the fragmentation threshold as a first step in a positive feedback mechanism that has the capacity to impair ecological resilience, and drive a regime shift in biodiversity. The model considers that local extinction risk is defined by patch size, and immigration rates by landscape vegetation cover, and that the recovery from local species losses depends upon the landscape species pool. Using a unique dataset on the distribution of non-volant small mammals across replicate landscapes in the Atlantic forest of Brazil, we found strong evidence for our model predictions - that patch-area effects are evident only at intermediate levels of total forest cover, where landscape diversity is still high and opportunities for enhancing biodiversity through local management are greatest. Furthermore, high levels of forest loss can push native biota through an extinction filter, and result in the abrupt, landscape-wide loss of forest-specialist taxa, ecological resilience and management effectiveness. The proposed model links hitherto distinct theoretical approaches within a single framework, providing a powerful tool for analysing the potential effectiveness of management interventions.

A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.