On the impossibility of fair risk allocation

Measuring and allocating risk properly are crucial for performance evaluation and internal capital allocation of portfolios held by banks, insurance companies, investment funds and other entities subject to financial risk. We show that by using coherent measures of risk it is impossible to allocate risk satisfying simultaneously the natural requirements of Core Compatibility, Equal Treatment Property and Strong Monotonicity. To obtain the result we characterize the Shapley value on the class of totally balanced games and also on the class of exact games.

Putting Adequate Financial and Human Resources in Healthcare for Effective Universal Health Coverage in Kenya: Lessons and Experiences from China

In recent years, most low and middle-income countries, have adopted different approaches to universal health coverage (UHC), to ensure equity and financial risk protection in accessing essential healthcare services. UHC-related policies and delivery strategies are largely based on existing healthcare systems, a result of gradual development (based on local factors and priorities). Most countries have emphasized on health financing, and human resources for health (HRH) reform policies, based on good practices of several healthcare plans to deliver UHC for their population.

Health financing and labor market frameworks were used, to understand health financing, HRH dynamics, and to analyze key health policies implemented over the past decade in Kenya’s effort to achieve UHC. Through the understanding, policy options are proposed to Kenya; analyzing, and generating lessons from health financing, and HRH reforms experiences in China. Data was collected using mixed methods approach, utilizing both quantitative (documents and literature review), and qualitative (in-depth interviews) data collection techniques.

The problems in Kenya are substantial: high levels of out-of-pocket health expenditure, slow progress in expanding health insurance among informal sector workers, inefficiencies in pulling of health are revenues, inadequate deployed HRH, maldistribution of HRH, and inadequate quality measures in training health worker. The government has identified the critical role of strengthening primary health care and the National Hospital Insurance Fund (NHIF) in Kenya’s move towards UHC. Strengthening primary health care requires; re-defining the role of hospitals, and health insurance schemes, and training, deploying and retaining primary care professionals according to the health needs of the population; concepts not emphasized in Kenya’s healthcare reforms or programs design. Kenya’s top leadership commitment is urgently needed for tougher reforms implementation, and important lessons from China’s extensive health reforms in the past decade are beneficial. Key lessons from China include health insurance expansion through rigorous research, monitoring, and evaluation, substantially increasing government health expenditure, innovative primary healthcare strengthening, designing, and implementing health policy reforms that are responsive to the population, and regional approaches to strengthening HRH.

Final Report

This project aims to assess the extent of economic sustainability of working in international markets by Australian construction design-related firms. This investigation also identified barriers and success factors firms experience, which ultimately increases or reduces their exposure to financial risk. This study explored new research territory by developing a detailed understanding of the way three successful firms have maintained their longevity in various international markets. The firms are not considered to be large firms by international standards. The manner in which the firms achieve long term sustainability, deal with problems and barriers in international markets and develop successful strategies rely upon being adaptable to different markets and changes within markets. A model was developed based upon a critical analysis of the literature. An adaptive performance framework for sustainability was developed which had three key areas; internationalisation process, market knowledge and design management. The sustainable business model is underpinned by the management of non-economic factors, which include social, cultural and intellectual capital. The ultimate aim of any firm and the ultimate indicator of success is financial capital. Firms typically develop their own highly sophisticated financial measures themselves however have only an implicit understanding of other softer and less tangible factors that impact upon sustainability. Adaptive performance is the firm’s continual adaptivity of business practices to respond to and thereby achieve client satisfaction by a combination of self, market and project needs assessment.

Long term sustainability in exporting creativity

This project aims to assess the extent of economic sustainability of working in international markets by Australian construction design-related firms. This investigation also identified barriers and success factors firms experience, which ultimately increases or reduces their exposure to financial risk. This study explored new research territory by developing a detailed understanding of the way three successful firms have maintained their longevity in various international markets. The firms are not considered to be large firms by international standards. The manner in which the firms achieve long term sustainability, deal with problems and barriers in international markets and develop successful strategies rely upon being adaptable to different markets and changes within markets. A model was developed based upon a critical analysis of the literature. An adaptive performance framework for sustainability was developed which had three key areas; internationalisation process, market knowledge and design management. The sustainable business model is underpinned by the management of non-economic factors, which include social, cultural and intellectual capital. The ultimate aim of any firm and the ultimate indicator of success is financial capital. Firms typically develop their own highly sophisticated financial measures themselves however have only an implicit understanding of other softer and less tangible factors that impact upon sustainability. Adaptive performance is the firm’s continual adaptivity of business practices to respond to and thereby achieve client satisfaction by a combination of self, market and project needs assessment.

Building a successful partnership to increase affordable rental housing supply in Queensland

Accessibility to housing for low to moderate income groups in Australia has been experiencing a severe decline since 2001. On the supply side, the public sector has been reducing its commitment to the direct provision of public housing. Despite high demand for affordable housing, there has been limited supply generated by non-government housing providers. One possible solution to promote an increase in affordable housing supply, like other infrastructure, is through the development of multi-stakeholder partnerships and private financing. This research aims to identify current issues underlying decision-making criteria for building multi-stakeholder partnerships to deliver affordable housing projects. It also investigates strategies for minimising risk and ensuring the financial outcomes of these partnership arrangements. A mix of qualitative in-depth interviews and quantitative surveys has been used as the main method to explore stakeholder experiences regarding their involvement in partnership arrangements in the affordable housing sector in Queensland. Two sets of interviews were conducted following an exploratory pilot study: one set in 2003-2004 and the other in 2007-2008. There were nineteen respondents representing government, private and not-for-profit organisations in the first stage interviews and surveys. The second stage interviews were focussed on twenty-two housing providers in South East Queensland. Initial analyses have been conducted using thematic and statistical analyses. This study extends the use of existing decision making tools and combines the use of a Soft System Framework to analyse the ideal state questionnaires using qualitative thematic analysis. Soft System Methodology (SSM) has been used to analyse this unstructured complex problem by using systematic thinking to develop a conceptual model and carrying it to the real world situations to solve the problem. This research found that the diversity of stakeholder capability and their level of risk acceptance will allow partnerships to develop the best synergies and a degree of collaboration which achieves the required financial return within acceptable risk parameters. However, some of the negativity attached to future commitment to such partnerships has been found to be the anticipation of a worse outcome than that expected from independent action. Many interviewees agree that housing providers' fear of financial risk and community rejection has been central to dampening their enthusiasm for entering such investment projects. The creation of a mixed-use development structure will mitigate both risk and return as the commercial income will subsidise the affordable housing development and will normalise concentration of marginalised low-income people who live in a prime location with an award winning design. In addition, tenant support schemes and rent-to-buy incentive programs will encourage them to secure their tenancies and significantly reduce the risk of rent arrears and property damage. There is also a breakthrough investment vehicle offered by the social developer which sells the non-physical but financial product to individual and institutional investors to mitigate further financial risk. Finally, this study recommends modification of the current value-for-money framework in favour of broader partnership arrangements which are more closely aligned with risk minimisation strategies.

Earned value management insights using inferential statistics

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to summarise a successfully defended doctoral thesis. The main purpose of this paper is to provide a summary of the scope, and main issues raised in the thesis so that readers undertaking studies in the same or connected areas may be aware of current contributions to the topic. The secondary aims are to frame the completed thesis in the context of doctoral-level research in project management as well as offer ideas for further investigation which would serve to extend scientific knowledge on the topic. Design/methodology/approach – Research reported in this paper is based on a quantitative study using inferential statistics aimed at better understanding the actual and potential usage of earned value management (EVM) as applied to external projects under contract. Theories uncovered during the literature review were hypothesized and tested using experiential data collected from 145 EVM practitioners with direct experience on one or more external projects under contract that applied the methodology. Findings – The results of this research suggest that EVM is an effective project management methodology. The principles of EVM were shown to be significant positive predictors of project success on contracted efforts and to be a relatively greater positive predictor of project success when using fixed-price versus cost-plus (CP) type contracts. Moreover, EVM's work-breakdown structure (WBS) utility was shown to positively contribute to the formation of project contracts. The contribution was not significantly different between fixed-price and CP contracted projects, with exceptions in the areas of schedule planning and payment planning. EVM's “S” curve benefited the administration of project contracts. The contribution of the S-curve was not significantly different between fixed-price and CP contracted projects. Furthermore, EVM metrics were shown to also be important contributors to the administration of project contracts. The relative contribution of EVM metrics to projects under fixed-price versus CP contracts was not significantly different, with one exception in the area of evaluating and processing payment requests. Practical implications – These results have important implications for project practitioners, EVM advocates, as well as corporate and governmental policy makers. EVM should be considered for all projects – not only for its positive contribution to project contract development and administration, for its contribution to project success as well, regardless of contract type. Contract type should not be the sole determining factor in the decision whether or not to use EVM. More particularly, the more fixed the contracted project cost, the more the principles of EVM explain the success of the project. The use of EVM mechanics should also be used in all projects regardless of contract type. Payment planning using a WBS should be emphasized in fixed-price contracts using EVM in order to help mitigate performance risk. Schedule planning using a WBS should be emphasized in CP contracts using EVM in order to help mitigate financial risk. Similarly, EVM metrics should be emphasized in fixed-price contracts in evaluating and processing payment requests. Originality/value – This paper provides a summary of cutting-edge research work and a link to the published thesis that researchers can use to help them understand how the research methodology was applied as well as how it can be extended.

What drives the commodity price beta of oil industry stocks

We test theoretical drivers of the oil price beta of oil industry stocks. The strongest statistical and economic support comes for market conditions-type variables as the prime drivers: namely, oil price (+), bond rate (+), volatility of oil returns (−) and cost of carry (+). Though statistically significant, exogenous firm characteristics and oil firms' financing decisions have less compelling economic significance. There is weaker support for the prediction that financial risk management reduces the exposure of oil stocks to crude oil price variation. Finally, extended modelling shows that mean reversion in oil prices also helps explain cross-sectional variation in the oil beta.

Analysing governance categories used on project alliances in the construction industry

In Australia, collaborative contracts, and in particular, project alliances, have been increasingly used to govern infrastructure projects. These contracts use formal and informal governance mechanisms to manage the delivery of infrastructure projects. Formal mechanisms such as financial risk sharing are specified in the contract, while informal mechanisms such as integrated teams are not. Given that the literature contains a multiplicity of often untestable definitions, this paper reports on a review of the literature to operationalize the concepts of formal and informal governance. This work is the first phase of a study that will examine the optimal balance of formal and informal governance structures. Desk-top review of leading journals in the areas of construction management and business management, as well as recent government documents and industry guidelines, was undertaken to to conceptualise and operationalize formal and informal governance mechanisms. The study primarily draws on transaction-cost economics (e.g. Williamson 1979; Williamson 1991), relational contract theory (Feinman 2000; Macneil 2000) and social psychology theory (e.g. Gulati 1995). Content analysis of the literature was undertaken to identify key governance mechanisms. Content analysis is a commonly used methodology in the social sciences area. It provides rich data through the systematic and objective review of literature (Krippendorff 2004). NVivo 9, a qualitative data analysis software package, was used to assist in this process. A previous study by the authors identified that formal governance mechanisms can be classified into seven measurable categories: (1) negotiated cost, (2) competitive cost, (3) commercial framework, (4) risk and reward sharing, (5) qualitative performance, (6) collaborative multi-party agreement, and (7) early contractor involvement. Similarly, informal governance mechanisms can be classified into four measureable categories: (1) leadership structure, (2) integrated team, (3) team workshops, and (4) joint management system. This paper explores and further defines the key operational characteristics of each mechanism category, highlighting its impact on value for money in alliance project delivery. The paper’s contribution is that it provides the basis for future research to compare the impact of a range of individual mechanisms within each category, as a means of improving the performance of construction projects.

Understanding Formal and Informal Governance on Infrastructure Projects - Literature Review [industry report]

In Australia, collaborative contracts have been increasingly used to govern infrastructure projects. These contracts combine formal and informal mechanisms to manage project delivery. Formal mechanisms (e.g. financial risk sharing) are specified in the contract, while informal mechanisms (e.g. integrated team) are not. The paper reports on a literature review to operationalise the concepts of formal and informal governance, as the literature contains a multiplicity of, often un-testable, definitions. This work is the first phase of a study that will examine the optimal balance of formal and informal governance structures. Desk-top review of leading journals in the areas of construction management and business management, as well as recent government documents and industry guidelines, was undertaken to to conceptualise and operatinalise formal and informal governance mechanisms. The study primarily draws on transaction-cost economics (e.g. Williamson 1979; 1991), relational contract theory (Feinman 2000; Macneil 2000) and social psychology theory (e.g. Gulati 1995). Content analysis of the literature was undertaken to identify key governance mechanisms. Content analysis is a commonly used methodology in the social sciences area. It provides rich data through the systematic and objective review of literature (Krippendorff 2004). NVivo 9, a qualitative data analysis software package, was used to assist in this process. Formal governance mechanisms were found to be usefully broken down into four measurable categories: (1) target cost arrangement (2) financial risk and reward sharing regime (3) transparent financials and (4) collaborative multi-party agreement Informal governance mechanisms were found to be usefully broken down into three measurable categories: (1) leadership structure (2) integrated team (3) joint management system We expect these categories to effectively capture the key governance drivers of outcomes on infrastructure projects. These categories will be further refined and broken down into individual governance mechanisms for assessment through a large-scale Australian survey planned for late 2012. These individual mechanisms will feature in the questionnaire that QUT will deliver to AAA in October 2012.

Laboratory investigation on the effects of overburden pressure, water, and time on slaking induced material property degradation of coal mine spoil

In open-cut strip mining, waste material is placed in-pit to minimise operational mine costs. Slope failures in these spoil piles pose a significant safety risk to personnel, along with a financial risk from loss of equipment and scheduling delays. It has been observed that most spoil pile failures occur when the pit has been previously filled with water and then subsequently dewatered. The failures are often initiated at the base of spoil piles where the material can undergo significant slaking (disintegration) over time due to overburden pressure and water saturation. It is important to understand how the mechanical properties of base spoil material are affected by slaking when designing safe spoil pile slope angles, heights, and dewatering rates. In this study, fresh spoil material collected from a coal mine in Brown Basin Coalfield of Queensland, Australia was subjected to high overburden pressure (0 – 900 kPa) under saturated condition and maintained over a period of time (0 – 6 months) allowing the material to slake. To create the above conditions, laboratory designed pressure chambers were used. Once a spoil sample was slaked under certain overburden pressure over a period of time, it was tested for classification, permeability, and strength properties. Results of this testing program suggested that the slaking of saturated coal mine spoil increase with overburden pressure and the time duration over which the overburden pressure was maintained. Further, it was observed that shear strength and permeability of spoil decreased with increase in spoil slaking.

O Estado como investidor institucional: a disciplina jurídica de uma atuação estatal não interventiva na economia

Em um contexto de demandas sociais tendencialmente crescentes, uma das alternativas para o aumento da arrecadação de receitas pelo Estado reside no manejo de aplicações financeiras. Os investimentos financeiros estatais, a rigor, já acontecem, mas nem sempre o objetivo claro e explícito de obtenção de resultados financeiramente interessantes e, eventualmente ou mesmo por isso , sob gestão economicamente ineficiente. Às vezes, até se enxerga o foco na obtenção de rendimentos relevantes na ação estatal, mas sem uma disciplina específica, o que pode abrir espaço a uma gestão de ativos desqualificada ou mesmo fraudulenta, com sérios prejuízos aos cofres públicos e, em situações extremas, ampliação ainda maior das despesas públicas. O objetivo desta tese, portanto, é reconhecer que nem sempre o Estado atua na economia com propósito interventivo e que, na qualidade de investidor institucional vale dizer, de ente que tem o dever de proceder aos investimentos e às aplicações financeiras que digam com as melhores práticas de administração dos ativos públicos , precisa atuar sob o jugo de normas jurídicas claras, que permitam ao Estado ampliar suas receitas dentro de limites razoáveis de exposição a risco financeiro e disponibilizem aos órgãos de fiscalização e controle da Administração Pública as ferramentas necessárias para, também quanto a esse aspecto, aferir a eficiência da ação estatal. Para tanto, têm-se como pressupostos o anacronismo da resistência cultural às aplicações financeiras dos entes da Administração Pública e a noção de que quaisquer ferramentas de obtenção de receitas pelo Estado estão sujeitas a algum grau de risco. Com base nas bem-sucedidas experiências nacionais e internacionais, será possível concluir, ao final, que é admissível, do ponto de vista constitucional e legal, a ação do Estado como investidor nos mercados financeiro e de capitais e que é viável a formulação de parâmetros gerais para a disciplina jurídica do Estado investidor.

Corporate Bond Market in the Transition Economy of Vietnam, 1990-2010

Corporate bond appeared early in 1992-1994 in Vietnamese capital markets. However, it is still not popular to both business sector and academic circle. This paper explores different dimensions of Vietnamese corporate bond market using a unique, and perhaps, most complete dataset. State not only intervenes in the bond markets with its powerful budget and policies but also competes directly with enterprises. The dominance of SOEs and large corporations also prevents SMEs from this debt financing vehicle. Whenever a convertible term is available, bondholders are more willing to accept lower fixed income payoff. But they would not likely stick to it. On one hand, prospective bondholders could value the holdings of equity when realized favorably ex ante. On the other hand, the applicable coupon rate for such bond could turn out negative inflationadjusted payoff when tight monetary policy is exercised and the corresponding equity holding turns out valueless, ex post. Given the weak primary market and virtually nonexistent secondary market, the corporate bond market in Vietnam reflects our perception of the relationship-based and rent-seeking behavior in the financial markets. For the corporate bonds to really work, they critically need a higher level of liquidity to become truly tradable financial assets.

It Takes Two to Tango: Entrepreneurship and Creativity in Troubled Times – Vietnam 2012

Strikingly, most literature suggests that market competition will push firms to take creativity/innovation seriously as matter of death or survival. Using the data, we examined creativity methods (Napier and Nilsson, 2008; Napier, 2010) in conjunction with three influential cultural values – namely risk tolerance, relationship, and dependence on resources – to assess how they influence decisions of entrepreneurs.The primary objective of this study focuses on perceived values of entrepreneurship and creativity in business conducted within a turbulent environment. Our initial hypothesis is that a typical entrepreneurial process carries with it “creativity-enabling elements.” In a normal situation, when businesses focus more on optimizing their resources for commercial gains, perceptions about values of entrepreneurial creativity are usually vague. However, in difficult times and harsh competition, the difference between survival and failure may be creativity. This paper also examines many previous findings on both entrepreneurship and creativity and suggests a highly possible “organic growth” of creativity in an entrepreneurial environment and reinforcing value of entrepreneurship when creativity power is present. In other words, we see each idea reinforcing the other. We use data from a survey of sample Vietnamese firms during the chaotic economic year 2012 to learn about the ‘entrepreneurshipcreativity nexus.’ A data set of 137 responses qualified for a statistical examination was obtained from an online survey, which started on February 16 and ended May 24, 2012, sent to local entrepreneurs and corporate managers using social networks. The authors employed categorical data analysis (Agresti, 2002; Azen & Walker, 2011). Statistical analyses confirm that for business operation, the creativity and entrepreneurial spirit could hardly be separate; and, this is not only correct with entrepreneurial firm, but also well established companies. The single most important factor before business startup and during early implementation in Vietnam is what we call “connection/relationship.” However, businesspeople are increasingly aware of the need of creativity/innovation. In fact, we suggest that creativity and entrepreneurial spirit cannot be separated in entrepreneurial firms as well as established companies.

Operational scales, sources of finance, and firms’ performance: evidence from Vietnamese longitudinal data

This study investigates a longitudinal dataset consisting of financial and operational data from 37 listed companies listed on Vietnamese stock market, covering the period 2004-13. By performing three main types of regression analysis - pooled OLS, fixed-effect and random-effect regressions - the investigation finds mixed results on the relationships between operational scales, sources of finance and firms' performance, depending on the choice of analytical model and use of independent/dependent variables. In most situation, fixed-effect models appear to be preferable, providing for reasonably consistent results. Toward the end, the paper offers some further explanation about the obtained insights, which reflect the nature of a business environment of a transition economy and an emerging market.

A framework for assessing the vulnerability of food systems to future shocks

Modem society depends on complex agro-ecological and trading systems to provide food for urban residents, yet there are few tools available to assess whether these systems are vulnerable to future disturbances. We propose a preliminary framework to assess the vulnerability of food systems to future shocks based on landscape ecology's 'Panarchy Framework'. According to Panarchy, ecosystem vulnerability is determined by three generic characteristics: (1) the wealth available in the system, (2) how connected the system is, and (3) how much diversity exists in the system. In this framework, wealthy, non-diverse, tightly connected systems are highly vulnerable. The wealth of food systems can be measured using the approach pioneered by development economists to assess how poverty affects food security. Diversity can be measured using the tools investors use to measure the diversity of investment portfolios to assess financial risk. The connectivity of a system can be evaluated with the tools chemists use to assess the pathways chemicals use to flow through the environment. This approach can lead to better tools for creating policy designed to reduce vulnerability, and can help urban or regional planners identify where food systems are vulnerable to shocks and disturbances that may occur in the future. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.