Venture capital meets contract theory: risky claims or formal control?

This paper develops a theory of the joint allocation of formal control and cash-flow rights in venture capital deals. We argue that when the need for investor support calls for very high-powered outside claims, entrepreneurs should optimally retain formal control in order to avoid excessive interference. Hence, we predict that risky claims should be be negatively correlated to control rights, both along the life of a start-up and across deals. This challenges the idea that risky claims should a ways be associated to more formal control, and is in line with contractual terms increasingly used in venture capital, in corporate venturing and in partnership deals between biotech start-ups and large drug companies. The paper provides a theoretical explanation to some puzzling evidence documented in Gompers (1997) and Kaplan and Stromberg (2000), namely the inclusion in venture capital contracts of contingencies that trigger both a reduction in VC control and the conversion! of her preferred stocks into common stocks.

Endogenous capacity utilization and the asymmetric effects of monetary policy

This paper investigates the role of variable capacity utilization as a source of asymmetries in the relationship between monetary policy and economic activity within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. The source of the asymmetry is directly linked to the bottlenecks and stock-outs that emerge from the existence of capacity constraints in the real side of the economy. Money has real effects due to the presence of rigidities in households' portfolio decisions in the form of a Luces-Fuerst 'limited participation' constraint. The model features variable capacity utilization rates across firms due to demand uncertainty. A monopolistic competitive structure provides additional effects through optimal mark-up changes. The overall message of this paper for monetary policy is that the same actions may have different effects depending on the capacity utilization rate of the economy.

Los principales elementos del nuevo IRPF: una valoración a partir de ESPASIM

El Impuesto sobre la Renta de las Personas Físicas (IRPF) es uno de los instrumentos claves del sistema tributario español. En este trabajo se estudia el impacto de los principales elementos del Nuevo IRPF, a partir de ESPASIM, el primer modelo integrado de microsimulación de impuestos y subsidios (tax-benefit) para España, que emplea micro datos procedentes de la Encuesta de Presupuestos Familiares (EPF) representativos de la población española. Tomando como sistema de base el impuesto sobre la renta anterior (IRPF 1998), se analiza cómo la introducción de la nueva figura impositiva afecta la tributación en términos de recaudación, número de contribuyentes y de declarantes, los tipos marginales efectivos de imposición y impacto distributivo, tanto para el conjunto de la población como por grupos de hogares. Las estimaciones que se presentan muestran que el Nuevo impuesto conlleva una reducción sustancial de la presión fiscal media por IRPF que va acompañada de una reducción del tipo marginal efectivo medio de 2,12 puntos de porcentaje. El importante coste que en términos recaudatorios suponen la introducción del mínimo vital personal y familiar, las nuevas escala de gravamen y deducción por rendimientos del trabajo por cuenta ajena, no contribuyen a reducir la desigualdad relativa, beneficiando sobretodo a la población situada en los tramos medios y altos de la escala de renta. La reforma no beneficia tampoco ni a los hogares con cargas familiares ni a los perceptores de rendimientos por cuenta ajena, que experimentan (ambos colectivos) una reducción impositiva muy similar a la del conjunto de la población. Igualmente, son los grupos relativamente más pobres -personas solas y hogares monoparentales- los que menos ganan con la reforma. La reducción del número de declarantes (en 2,1 millones) asociada al nuevo impuesto, va acompañada de más complejidad legislativa y de una pérdida de generalidad de este instrumento impositivo.

Efectos redistributivos de las subvenciones al transporte público en áreas urbanas

El objetivo de este artículo es evaluar los efectos redistributivos derivados de las subvenciones al transporte público tomando como unidad de análisis a las familias. La fuente de datos es la Encuesta de Presupuestos Familiares 1990-91. Dado que la subvención consiste en una cantidad fija por billete comprado, cabe postular que la subvención recibida es proporcional al gasto efectuado en transporte público. Por ello, se estima una relación entre gasto en transporte público y nivel de renta que permite calcular los efectos redistributivos. No obstante, para solventar el problema de falta de representatividad muestral de la EPF para determinados colectivos, el análisis utiliza una aproximación indirecta a través de la estimación de una función de gasto que discurre en dos fases. La primera es la decisión de gastar o no gastar, que se cuantifica a través de un modelo de elección discreta y, la segunda, evalúa la cantidad gastada por medio de una ecuación de regresión continua. Estas modelizaciones parciales se integran en un modelo cuasi recursivo que se simula conjuntamente y permite evaluar distintas situaciones hipotéticas para una familia tipo. La conclusión global es que las subvenciones al transporte –en ausencia de efectos adversos sobre la eficiencia- tienen efectos progresivos, dado que representan una mayor proporción de la renta para las decilas inferiores. Este efecto es más acentuado en las grandes ciudades de Madrid y Barcelona.

Petrol consumption and redistributive effects of its taxation in Spain

The objective of this paper is to estimate a petrol consumption function for Spain and to evaluate the redistributive effects of petrol taxation. We use micro data from the Spanish Household Budget Survey of 1990/91 and model petrol consumption taking into account the effect that income changes may have on car ownership levels, as well as the differences that exist between expenditure and consumption. Our results show the importance that household structure, place of residence and income have on petrol consumption. We are able to compute income elasticities of petrol expenditure, both conditional and unconditional on the level of car ownership. Non-conditional elasticities, while always very close to unit values, are lower for higher income households and for those living in rural areas or small cities. When car ownership levels are taken into account, conditional elasticities are obtained that are around one half the value of the non- conditional ones, being fairly stable across income categories and city sizes. As regards the redistributive effects of petrol taxation, we observe that for the lowest income deciles the share of petrol expenditure increases with income, and thus the tax can be regarded as progressive. However, after a certain income level the tax proves to be regressive.

Análisis de los efectos redistributivos del IVA español en la última década

El Impuesto sobre el Valor Añadido se ha convertido en el año 2000 en el tributo de mayor poder recaudatorio en la economía española. Esto pone de manifiesto la progresiva tendencia de sustitución de la imposición directa por los impuesto indirectos. Este trabajo pretende evaluar las consecuencias redistributivas de la actual legislación del IVA. Para la consecución de tal empresa, se ha utilizado la Encuesta Básica de Presupuesto Familiares 90-91, y se ha elaborado una nueva propuesta de clasificación de categorías de gasto, que contribuyen positivamente a una mejora en la homogeneización de los grupos e identificación de los tipos. Dicho tributo ha sufrido innumerables reformas fiscales en la década de los noventa, basada en cambios sustanciales en los tipos impostivos. En este sentido, se pretende enjuiciar la adecuación de dichas modificaciones a la contribución de los objetivos de equidad, y sus. Por tanto, se analiza el impacto diferencial en el tiempo de las tres reformas más relevantes en los últimos años mediante las técnicas de microsimulación. Dicha simulación se lleva a cabo bajo la asunción de dos hipótesis posibles de las decisiones de consumo: ausencia y presencia de comportamiento.

A Model of ethnic conflict

We present a model of conflict, in which discriminatory government policy or social intolerance is responsive to various forms of ethnic activism, including violence. It is this perceived responsiveness -captured by the probability that the government gives in and accepts a proponed change in ethnic policy- that induces individuals to mobilize in support for their cause. Yet, mobilization is costly and demonstrators have to be compensated accordingly. Individuals have to weigh their ethnic radicalism with their material well-being to determine the size of their money contribution to the cause. Our main results are: (i) a one-sided increase in radicalism or in population size increases conflict; (ii) a one-sided increase in income has ambiguous effects depending on the elasticity of contributions to income; (iii) an increase in within-group inequality increases conflict; and (iv) an increase in the correlation between ethnic radicalism and inequality also increases conflict.

Polarization, fractionalization and conflict

A recent upsurge of empirical studies on the causes of conflict attempts to connect various features of the distribution of the relevant characteristic (typically ethnicity or religion) to conflict. The distributional indices differ (polarization, fractionalization or Lorenz-domination) and so do the various specifications of "conflict" (onset, incidence or intensity). Overall, the results are far from clear, and combined with the mixture of alternative indices and notions of "conflict" it is not surprising that the reader may come away thoroughly perplexed. The aim of this paper is to provide a theoretical framework that permits us to distinguish between the occurrence of conflict and its severity and that clarifies the role of polarization and fractionalization in each of these cases.

Locations and Relocations:Modelling, Determinants, and Interrelations

Empirical studies on industrial location do not typically distinguish between new and relocated establishments. This paper addresses this shortcoming using data on the frequency of these events in municipalities of the same economic-administrative region. This enables us to test not only for differences in their determinants but also for interrelations between start-ups and relocations. Estimates from count regression models for cross-section and panel data show that, although partial effects differ, common patterns arise in “institutional” and “neoclassical” explanatory factors. Also, start-ups and relocations are positive but asymmetrically related. JEL classification: C25, R30, R10. Keywords: cities, count data models, industrial location

Market effects of foreign exchange coordinated intervention

In this article we develop a theoretical microstructure model of coordinated central bank intervention based on asymmetric information. We study the economic implications of coordination on some measures of market quality and show that the model predicts higher volatility and more significant exchange rate changes when central banks coordinate compared to when they intervene unilaterally. Both these predictions are in line with empirical evidence. Keywords: coordinated foreign exchange intervention, market microstructure. JEL Classification: D82, E58, F31, G14

All-pay auction equilibria in contests

We analyze (non-deterministic) contests with anonymous contest success functions. There is no restriction on the number of contestants or on their valuations for the prize. We provide intuitive and easily verifiable conditions for the existence of an equilibrium with properties similar to the one of the (deterministic) all-pay auction. Since these conditions are fulfilled for a wide array of situations, the predictions of this equilibrium are very robust to the specific details of the contest. An application of this result contributes to fill a gap in the analysis of the popular Tullock rent- seeking game because it characterizes properties of an equilibrium for increasing returns to scale larger than two, for any number of contestants and in contests with or without a common value. Keywords: (non-) deterministic contest, all-pay auction, contest success functions. JEL Classification Numbers: C72 (Noncooperative Games), D72 (Economic Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Elections), D44 (Auctions).

Deconstructing Shocks and Persistence in OECD Real Exchange Rates

This paper analyzes the persistence of shocks that affect the real exchange rates for a panel of seventeen OECD developed countries during the post-Bretton Woods era. The adoption of a panel data framework allows us to distinguish two different sources of shocks, i.e. the idiosyncratic and the common shocks, each of which may have di¤erent persistence patterns on the real exchange rates. We first investigate the stochastic properties of the panel data set using panel stationarity tests that simultaneously consider both the presence of cross-section dependence and multiple structural breaks that have not received much attention in previous persistence analyses. Empirical results indicate that real exchange rates are non-stationary when the analysis does not account for structural breaks, although this conclusion is reversed when they are modeled. Consequently, misspecification errors due to the non-consideration of structural breaks leads to upward biased shocks' persistence measures. The persistence measures for the idiosyncratic and common shocks have been estimated in this paper always turn out to be less than one year.

Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads

In this paper we examine the out-of-sample forecast performance of high-yield credit spreads regarding real-time and revised data on employment and industrial production in the US. We evaluate models using both a point forecast and a probability forecast exercise. Our main findings suggest the use of few factors obtained by pooling information from a number of sector-specific high-yield credit spreads. This can be justified by observing that, especially for employment, there is a gain from using a principal components model fitted to high-yield credit spreads compared to the prediction produced by benchmarks, such as an AR, and ARDL models that use either the term spread or the aggregate high-yield spread as exogenous regressor. Moreover, forecasts based on real-time data are generally comparable to forecasts based on revised data. JEL Classification: C22; C53; E32 Keywords: Credit spreads; Principal components; Forecasting; Real-time data.