Episodic nonstationarity in exchange rates

We examine a method recently proposed by Hinich and Patterson (mimeo, University of Texas at Austin, 1995) for testing the validity of specifying a GARCH error structure for financial time series data in the context of a set of ten daily Sterling exchange rates. The results demonstrate that there are statistical structures present in the data that cannot be captured by a GARCH model, or any of its variants. This result has important implications for the interpretation of the recent voluminous literature which attempts to model financial asset returns using this family of models.

Linear and non-linear (non-)forecastability of high-frequency exchange rates

This paper forecasts Daily Sterling exchange rate returns using various naive, linear and non-linear univariate time-series models. The accuracy of the forecasts is evaluated using mean squared error and sign prediction criteria. These show only a very modest improvement over forecasts generated by a random walk model. The Pesaran–Timmerman test and a comparison with forecasts generated artificially shows that even the best models have no evidence of market timing ability.

Testing for non-linearity in daily sterling exchange rates

A number of tests for non-linear dependence in time series are presented and implemented on a set of 10 daily sterling exchange rates covering the entire post Bretton-Woods era until the present day. Irrefutable evidence of non-linearity is shown in many of the series, but most of this dependence can apparently be explained by reference to the GARCH family of models. It is suggested that the literature in this area has reached an impasse, with the presence of ARCH effects clearly demonstrated in a large number of papers, but with the tests for non-linearity which are currently available being unable to classify any additional non-linear structure.

A measure of persistence in daily pound exchange rates

An alternative procedure to that of Lo is proposed for assessing whether there is significant evidence of persistence in time series. The technique estimates the Hurst exponent itself, and significance testing is based on an application of bootstrapping using surrogate data. The method is applied to a set of 10 daily pound exchange rates. A general lack of long-term memory is found to characterize all the series tested, in sympathy with the findings of a number of other recent papers which have used Lo's techniques.

The effects of government deficit on equilibrium real exchange rates and stock prices

This paper studies the effect of government deficits on equilibrium real exchange rates and stock prices. The theoretical part modifies a two-country cash-in-advance model like used in Lucas(1982) and Sargent(1987) in order to accommodate an exchange rate market and a government that pursues fiscal and monetary policy targets. The implied result is that unanticipated shocks in government deficits raise expectations of both taxes and inflation and, therefore, are associated with real exchange rate devaluations and lower stock prices. This finding is strongly supported by empirical evidence for a group of 19 countries, representing 76% of world production

The Brazilian foreign exchange market through the microstructure perspective

The objective of this study is to investigate whether the relationship between order ow and the spot exchange rate stems from the fact that the ow aggregates information on dispersed economic fundamentals in the economy. To perform this test, a database that includes all transactions of the commercial and nancial segments of the Brazilian primary foreign exchange market between January of 1999 and May of 2008 was used. We show that the order ow was partly responsible for variations in in ation expectations over the time period and that this relationship did not remain robust, drawing comparisons with other fundamentals such as GDP and Industrial Production.

Trade regulation of exchange rates

O presente estudo busca analisar o quadro regulatório internacional referente a medidas cambiais que trazem impactos no comércio. O artigo pretende explorar como a questão do câmbio se relaciona à OMC e afeta seus instrumentos e princípios para, em seguida, buscar dispositivos nos Acordos da OMC que poderiam ser aplicados à questão cambial a fim de reequilibrar os impactos causados pelos desalinhamentos cambiais no comércio internacional

Gas exchange rates, plant height, yield components, and productivity of upland rice as affected by plant regulators

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Gas exchange rates at different vapor pressure deficits and water relations of 'Pera' sweet orange plants with citrus variegated chlorosis (CVC)

Net photosynthesis (A) and transpiration rates (E), stomatal conductance (g), water use efficiency (WUE), intrinsic water use efficiency (IWUE) and internal leaf CO2 concentration (C) in response to different vapor pressure deficit (1.2 and 2.5 kPa) were investigated in 'Pera' sweet orange plants affected by citrus variegated chlorosis (CVC), a disease caused by Xylella fastidiosa. All plants were well watered and leaf water potential (Pw) was also measured by the psychrometric technique. Results showed that healthy plants responded to higher vapor pressure deficit (VPD), lowering its net photosynthesis and transpiration rates, and stomatal conductance. However, diseased plants presented no clear response to VPD, showing lower A, E and g for both VPDs studied and very similar values to these variables in healthy plants at the highest VPD. Internal leaf CO2 concentration also decreased for healthy plants when under the highest VPD, and surprisingly, the same pattern of response was found in plants with CVC. These results, the lower Psi(w) and higher WUE values for diseased plants, indicated that this disease may cause stomatal dysfunction and affect the water resistance through xylem vessels, which ultimately may play some role in photosynthetic metabolism. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Equilibrium real exchange rates, misalignment and competitiveness in the Southern Cone

Includes bibliography

Los tipos de cambio duales y el desarrollo económico = Dual exchange rates and economic development

Publicado separadamente en cada idioma

The relation between foreign exchange and banking crises in emerging countries: information and expectations problems

Includes bibliography