2083 – A European Declaration of Independence - An Analysis of Discourses from the Extreme

This paper analyses three of the dominating discourses Anders Behring Breivik used in his compendium, the official title of which is 2083 – A European Declaration of Independence, also known as Breivik's Manifesto. It is believed Breivik posted his Manifesto on the Internet shortly before the attacks in Norway in July, 2011. The number 2083 stands for the year when the "Western European Civil War" was expected to be completed, all traitors executed, and all Muslims deported from Europe. This article will discuss dominating discourses in the Manifesto, seen from a background of a European multicultural backlash, in which the political far-right movement is increasing. Furthermore, this article will end with a discussion of education and the importance of analysis of such phenomena within different subjects.

Keeping Variables within Bounds: Using Information between Observations

This research develops an econometric framework to analyze time series processes with bounds. The framework is general enough that it can incorporate several different kinds of bounding information that constrain continuous-time stochastic processes between discretely-sampled observations. It applies to situations in which the process is known to remain within an interval between observations, by way of either a known constraint or through the observation of extreme realizations of the process. The main statistical technique employs the theory of maximum likelihood estimation. This approach leads to the development of the asymptotic distribution theory for the estimation of the parameters in bounded diffusion models. The results of this analysis present several implications for empirical research. The advantages are realized in the form of efficiency gains, bias reduction and in the flexibility of model specification. A bias arises in the presence of bounding information that is ignored, while it is mitigated within this framework. An efficiency gain arises, in the sense that the statistical methods make use of conditioning information, as revealed by the bounds. Further, the specification of an econometric model can be uncoupled from the restriction to the bounds, leaving the researcher free to model the process near the bound in a way that avoids bias from misspecification. One byproduct of the improvements in model specification is that the more precise model estimation exposes other sources of misspecification. Some processes reveal themselves to be unlikely candidates for a given diffusion model, once the observations are analyzed in combination with the bounding information. A closer inspection of the theoretical foundation behind diffusion models leads to a more general specification of the model. This approach is used to produce a set of algorithms to make the model computationally feasible and more widely applicable. Finally, the modeling framework is applied to a series of interest rates, which, for several years, have been constrained by the lower bound of zero. The estimates from a series of diffusion models suggest a substantial difference in estimation results between models that ignore bounds and the framework that takes bounding information into consideration.

Geographical Distribution Of The Association Between El Niño South Oscillation And Dengue Fever In The Americas: A Continental Analysis Using Geographical Information System-based Techniques.

El Niño South Oscillation (ENSO) is one climatic phenomenon related to the inter-annual variability of global meteorological patterns influencing sea surface temperature and rainfall variability. It influences human health indirectly through extreme temperature and moisture conditions that may accelerate the spread of some vector-borne viral diseases, like dengue fever (DF). This work examines the spatial distribution of association between ENSO and DF in the countries of the Americas during 1995-2004, which includes the 1997-1998 El Niño, one of the most important climatic events of 20(th) century. Data regarding the South Oscillation index (SOI), indicating El Niño-La Niña activity, were obtained from Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The annual DF incidence (AIy) by country was computed using Pan-American Health Association data. SOI and AIy values were standardised as deviations from the mean and plotted in bars-line graphics. The regression coefficient values between SOI and AIy (rSOI,AI) were calculated and spatially interpolated by an inverse distance weighted algorithm. The results indicate that among the five years registering high number of cases (1998, 2002, 2001, 2003 and 1997), four had El Niño activity. In the southern hemisphere, the annual spatial weighted mean centre of epidemics moved southward, from 6° 31' S in 1995 to 21° 12' S in 1999 and the rSOI,AI values were negative in Cuba, Belize, Guyana and Costa Rica, indicating a synchrony between higher DF incidence rates and a higher El Niño activity. The rSOI,AI map allows visualisation of a graded surface with higher values of ENSO-DF associations for Mexico, Central America, northern Caribbean islands and the extreme north-northwest of South America.

A descriptive analysis of the seasonal variation of physical oceanographic characteristics in the northern region of the Todos os Santos Bay (Bahia, Brazil)

The results obtained in the August and December 2003, August 2004 and January 2005 oceanographic campaigns in the northern region of the Todos os Santos Bay (lat. 12º44.5'S; long. 038º35.00'W) between the Madre de Deus and Maré islands are analyzed. Instruments of continuous and discrete samplings were used to measure hydrographic properties currents and tides. The water mass of the northern region of the bay is forced by semidiurnal and mesotides of form number 0.08 and the lunar component M2 height was estimated at 91cm. The time series of the surface currents indicated movements in the N/S direction, forced by the tide with maximum magnitudes of 0.73 m.s-1 on the December 2003 campaign. However, in August 2004 the currents were dominated by the wind stress forcing, with a maximum speed of 1.85 m.s-1 and SE direction. Near the bottom, the influence of the tide is not as evident, with a decrease in intensity due to internal and bottom friction, with a maximum velocity of 0.17 m.s-1. The thermal and haline structures were weakly horizontally, as well as vertically stratified, with extreme values varying in the intervals 23ºC (August, 2004) to 28ºC (December, 2003) and 31.0 psu (August, 2003) to 36.0 psu (December, 2003), respectively. Some conclusions may be drawn from these results: i) The signs of the dilution of the fresh water discharges of the Caípe, Mataripe and São Paulo rivers in the region under the influence of the RLAM were observed only during the winter periods, but in the summer the region was flooded by waters of oceanic origin and the salinities above 36.0 indicated TW mass intrusion; ii) The N-S circulation near the RLAM is strongly dominated by the tide, and the importance of the M2 component was unequivocal, however, the E-W component presented some tidal modulation away from abrupt bottom topographical changes, and iii) The residual series, calculated as the difference between the original and modeled, is about ¼ of the original and confirmed its semidiurnal character.

Analysis of small signal stability margins using genetic optimization

Power system small signal stability analysis aims to explore different small signal stability conditions and controls, namely: (1) exploring the power system security domains and boundaries in the space of power system parameters of interest, including load flow feasibility, saddle node and Hopf bifurcation ones; (2) finding the maximum and minimum damping conditions; and (3) determining control actions to provide and increase small signal stability. These problems are presented in this paper as different modifications of a general optimization to a minimum/maximum, depending on the initial guesses of variables and numerical methods used. In the considered problems, all the extreme points are of interest. Additionally, there are difficulties with finding the derivatives of the objective functions with respect to parameters. Numerical computations of derivatives in traditional optimization procedures are time consuming. In this paper, we propose a new black-box genetic optimization technique for comprehensive small signal stability analysis, which can effectively cope with highly nonlinear objective functions with multiple minima and maxima, and derivatives that can not be expressed analytically. The optimization result can then be used to provide such important information such as system optimal control decision making, assessment of the maximum network's transmission capacity, etc. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

Decline in homicide rates in Sao Paulo, Brasil: a descriptive analysis

Objective. To describe homicide mortality in the municipality of Sao Paulo according to type of weapon, sex, race or skin color, age, and areas of socioeconomic inequalities, between 1996 and 2008. Method. For this ecological time-series study, data about deaths in the municipality of Sao Paulo were collected from the municipal program for improvement of mortality information, using International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) codes. Homicide mortality rates (HMR) were calculated for the overall population and specifically for each sex, race or skin color, age range, type of weapon, and occurrence in social deprivation/affluence areas. HMR were adjusted for age using the direct method. The percentage age of variation in HMR was calculated for the study period. For areas of socioeconomic inequalities, the relative risk of death from homicide was calculated. Results. HMR fell 73.7% between 2001 and 2008. A reduction in HMR was observed in all groups, especially males (-74.5%), young men between 15 and 24 years of age (-78.0%), and residents in areas of extreme socioeconomic deprivation (-79.3%). The reduction occurred mostly in firearm homicide rates (-74.1%). The relative risk of death from homicide in areas of extreme socioeconomic deprivation, as compared to areas with some degree of socioeconomic deprivation, was 2.77 in 1996, 3.9 in 2001, and 2.13 in 2008. In areas of high socioeconomic deprivation, the relative risk was 2.07 in 1996 and 1.96 in 2008. Conclusions. To understand the reduction in homicide rates in the municipality of Sao Paulo, it is important to take into consideration macrodeterminants that affect the entire municipality and all population subgroups, as well as micro/local determinants that have special impact on homicides committed with firearms and on subgroups such as the young, males, and residents of areas of high socioeconomic deprivation.

Genetic analysis of ticks belonging to the Rhipicephalus sanguineus group in Latin America

Phylogenetic analyses based on mitochondrial 16S rDNA sequences were generated from Rhipicephalus sanguineus group specimens collected in 29 localities among 9 Latin-American countries, plus ticks collected in South Africa, Spain, and Italy. Sequences from Latin America generated six different haplotypes (A, B, C, D, E, and F). Phylogenetic analyses generated trees that segregated our tick sequences into two distinct clades: one is represented by haplotypes A-C, and South African R. sanguineus and Rhipicephalus turanicus ticks; the second clade is represented by haplotypes D-F, and European R. sanguineus and R. turanicus ticks. When haplotypes A-Fare plotted in the Latin America map according to their geographical coordinates, it is clearly seen that haplotypes D-F are restricted to the southern portion of this continent, whereas haplotypes A-C are distributed in areas between northern Mexico and Brazil (except for the extreme south of this last country, where haplotype E was present). Hence, our phylogenetic analyses separated New World specimens of R. sanguineus into two distinct clades, one represented by tropical and subtropical populations (haplotypes A-C), here designated as the `tropical` species. On the other hand, haplotypes D-F are here designated as the `temperate` species because of their distribution in the southern portion of South America. Until recently, it was assumed that the R. sanguineus group was represented by a single species in the New World, namely R. sanguineus. While the present results coupled with recent studies support the presence of at least two species under the taxon R. sanguineus in the New World, they also show that even in the Old World, the taxon R. sanguineus might be represented by more than one species, since our phylogenetic analysis segregated European and South African R. sanguineus ticks into two distinct clades. The same can be applied for Spanish and South African R. turanicus. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Supervisory control of wastewater treatment plants by combining principal component analysis and fuzzy c-means clustering

In this paper a methodology for integrated multivariate monitoring and control of biological wastewater treatment plants during extreme events is presented. To monitor the process, on-line dynamic principal component analysis (PCA) is performed on the process data to extract the principal components that represent the underlying mechanisms of the process. Fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering is used to classify the operational state. Performing clustering on scores from PCA solves computational problems as well as increases robustness due to noise attenuation. The class-membership information from FCM is used to derive adequate control set points for the local control loops. The methodology is illustrated by a simulation study of a biological wastewater treatment plant, on which disturbances of various types are imposed. The results show that the methodology can be used to determine and co-ordinate control actions in order to shift the control objective and improve the effluent quality.

Briefing: Factored material properties and limit state loads-unlikely extreme or impossible pretense

In the limit state design (LSD) method each design criterion is formally stated and assessed using a performance function. The performance function defines the relationship between the design parameters and the design criterion. In practice, LSD involves factoring up loads and factoring down calculated strengths and material parameters. This provides a convenient way to carry out routine probabilistic-based design. The factors are statistically calculated to produce a design with an acceptably low probability of failure. Hence the ultimate load and the design material properties are mathematical concepts that have no physical interpretation. They may be physically impossible. Similarly, the appropriate analysis model is also defined by the performance function and may not describe the real behaviour at the perceived physical equivalent limit condition. These points must be understood to avoid confusion in the discussion and application of partial factor LSD methods.

A framework for extreme-event control in wastewater treatment

In this paper an approach to extreme event control in wastewater treatment plant operation by use of automatic supervisory control is discussed. The framework presented is based on the fact that different operational conditions manifest themselves as clusters in a multivariate measurement space. These clusters are identified and linked to specific and corresponding events by use of principal component analysis and fuzzy c-means clustering. A reduced system model is assigned to each type of extreme event and used to calculate appropriate local controller set points. In earlier work we have shown that this approach is applicable to wastewater treatment control using look-up tables to determine current set points. In this work we focus on the automatic determination of appropriate set points by use of steady state and dynamic predictions. The performance of a relatively simple steady-state supervisory controller is compared with that of a model predictive supervisory controller. Also, a look-up table approach is included in the comparison, as it provides a simple and robust alternative to the steady-state and model predictive controllers, The methodology is illustrated in a simulation study.

Analysis of the wind field and heat budget in an alpine lake basin during summertime fair weather conditions

Observational data collected in the Lake Tekapo hydro catchment of the Southern Alps in New Zealand are used to analyse the wind and temperature fields in the alpine lake basin during summertime fair weather conditions. Measurements from surface stations, pilot balloon and tethersonde soundings, Doppler sodar and an instrumented light aircraft provide evidence of multi-scale interacting wind systems, ranging from microscale slope winds to mesoscale coast-to-basin flows. Thermal forcing of the winds occurred due to differential heating as a consequence of orography and heterogeneous surface features, which is quantified by heat budget and pressure field analysis. The daytime vertical temperature structure was characterised by distinct layering. Features of particular interest are the formation of thermal internal boundary layers due to the lake-land discontinuity and the development of elevated mixed layers. The latter were generated by advective heating from the basin and valley sidewalls by slope winds and by a superimposed valley wind blowing from the basin over Lake Tekapo and up the tributary Godley Valley. Daytime heating in the basin and its tributary valleys caused the development of a strong horizontal temperature gradient between the basin atmosphere and that over the surrounding landscape, and hence the development of a mesoscale heat low over the basin. After noon, air from outside the basin started flowing over mountain saddles into the basin causing cooling in the lowest layers, whereas at ridge top height the horizontal air temperature gradient between inside and outside the basin continued to increase. In the early evening, a more massive intrusion of cold air caused rapid cooling and a transition to a rather uniform slightly stable stratification up to about 2000 m agl. The onset time of this rapid cooling varied about 1-2 h between observation sites and was probably triggered by the decay of up-slope winds inside the basin, which previously countered the intrusion of air over the surrounding ridges. The intrusion of air from outside the basin continued until about mid-night, when a northerly mountain wind from the Godley Valley became dominant. The results illustrate the extreme complexity that can be caused by the operation of thermal forcing processes at a wide range of spatial scales.

Applied physiology and game analysis of rugby union

Increased professionalism in rugby has elicited rapid changes in the fitness profile of elite players. Recent research, focusing on the physiological and anthropometrical characteristics of rugby players, and the demands of competition are reviewed. The paucity of research on contemporary elite rugby players is highlighted, along with the need for standardised testing protocols. Recent data reinforce the pronounced differences in the anthropometric and physical characteristics of the forwards and backs. Forwards are typically heavier, taller, and have a greater proportion of body fat than backs. These characteristics are changing, with forwards developing greater total mass and higher muscularity. The forwards demonstrate superior absolute aerobic and anaerobic power, and Muscular strength. Results favour the backs when body mass is taken into account. The scaling of results to body mass can be problematic and future investigations should present results using power function ratios. Recommended tests for elite players include body mass and skinfolds, vertical jump, speed, and the multi-stage shuttle run. Repeat sprint testing is a possible avenue for more specific evaluation of players. During competition, high-intensity efforts are often followed by periods of incomplete recovery. The total work over the duration of a game is lower in the backs compared with the forwards; forwards spend greater time in physical contact with the opposition while the backs spend more time in free running, allowing them to cover greater distances. The intense efforts undertaken by rugby players place considerable stress on anaerobic energy sources, while the aerobic system provides energy during repeated efforts and for recovery. Training should focus on repeated brief high-intensity efforts with short rest intervals to condition players to the demands of the game. Training for the forwards should emphasise the higher work rates of the game, while extended rest periods can be provided to the backs. Players should not only be prepared for the demands of competition, but also the stress of travel and extreme environmental conditions. The greater professionalism of rugby union has increased scientific research in the sport; however, there is scope for significant refinement of investigations on the physiological demands of the game, and sports-specific testing procedures.

Error bounds for low-rank approximations of the first exponential integral kernel

A hierarchical matrix is an efficient data-sparse representation of a matrix, especially useful for large dimensional problems. It consists of low-rank subblocks leading to low memory requirements as well as inexpensive computational costs. In this work, we discuss the use of the hierarchical matrix technique in the numerical solution of a large scale eigenvalue problem arising from a finite rank discretization of an integral operator. The operator is of convolution type, it is defined through the first exponential-integral function and, hence, it is weakly singular. We develop analytical expressions for the approximate degenerate kernels and deduce error upper bounds for these approximations. Some computational results illustrating the efficiency and robustness of the approach are presented.

Some bounds of loss in classical semideterministic immunization

Since Samuelson, Redington and Fisher and Weil, duration and immunization are very important topics in bond portfolio analysis from both a theoretical and a practical point of view. Many results have been established, especially in semi-deterministic framework. As regards, however, the loss may be sustained, we do not think that the subject has been investigated enough, except for the results found in the wake of the theorem of Fong and Vasicek. In this paper we present some results relating to the limitation of the loss in the case of local immunization for multiple liabilities.