Attractiveness of venture idea amongst expert entrepreneurs : a conjoint analysis

Principal Topic Venture ideas are at the heart of entrepreneurship (Davidsson, 2004). However, we are yet to learn what factors drive entrepreneurs’ perceptions of the attractiveness of venture ideas, and what the relative importance of these factors are for their decision to pursue an idea. The expected financial gain is one factor that will obviously influence the perceived attractiveness of a venture idea (Shepherd & DeTienne, 2005). In addition, the degree of novelty of venture ideas along one or more dimensions such as new products/services, new method of production, enter into new markets/customer and new method of promotion may affect their attractiveness (Schumpeter, 1934). Further, according to the notion of an individual-opportunity nexus venture ideas are closely associated with certain individual characteristics (relatedness). Shane (2000) empirically identified that individual’s prior knowledge is closely associated with the recognition of venture ideas. Sarasvathy’s (2001; 2008) Effectuation theory proposes a high degree of relatedness between venture ideas and the resource position of the individual. This study examines how entrepreneurs weigh considerations of different forms of novelty and relatedness as well as potential financial gain in assessing the attractiveness of venture ideas. Method I use conjoint analysis to determine how expert entrepreneurs develop preferences for venture ideas which involved with different degrees of novelty, relatedness and potential gain. The conjoint analysis estimates respondents’ preferences in terms of utilities (or part-worth) for each level of novelty, relatedness and potential gain of venture ideas. A sample of 32 expert entrepreneurs who were awarded young entrepreneurship awards were selected for the study. Each respondent was interviewed providing with 32 scenarios which explicate different combinations of possible profiles open them into consideration. Results and Implications Results indicate that while the respondents do not prefer mere imitation they receive higher utility for low to medium degree of newness suggesting that high degrees of newness are fraught with greater risk and/or greater resource needs. Respondents pay considerable weight on alignment with the knowledge and skills they already posses in choosing particular venture idea. The initial resource position of entrepreneurs is not equally important. Even though expected potential financial gain gives substantial utility, result indicate that it is not a dominant factor for the attractiveness of venture idea.

Expertise in software design : novice and expert models

This paper investigates how software designers use their knowledge during the design process. The research is based on the analysis of the observational and verbal data from three software design teams generated during the conceptual stage of the design process. The knowledge captured from the analysis of the mapped design team data is utilized to generate descriptive models of novice and expert designers. These models contribute to a better understanding of the connections between, and integration of, designer variables, and to a better understanding of software design expertise and its development. The models are transferable to other domains.

Combining expert opinions in prior elicitation

A method of eliciting prior distributions for Bayesian models using expert knowledge is proposed. Elicitation is a widely studied problem, from a psychological perspective as well as from a statistical perspective. Here, we are interested in combining opinions from more than one expert using an explicitly model-based approach so that we may account for various sources of variation affecting elicited expert opinions. We use a hierarchical model to achieve this. We apply this approach to two problems. The first problem involves a food risk assessment problem involving modelling dose-response for Listeria monocytogenes contamination of mice. The second concerns the time taken by PhD students to submit their thesis in a particular school.

Elicitator : a user-friendly, interactive tool to support scenario-based elicitation of expert knowledge

Expert elicitation is the process of determining what expert knowledge is relevant to support a quantitative analysis and then eliciting this information in a form that supports analysis or decision-making. The credibility of the overall analysis, therefore, relies on the credibility of the elicited knowledge. This, in turn, is determined by the rigor of the design and execution of the elicitation methodology, as well as by its clear communication to ensure transparency and repeatability. It is difficult to establish rigor when the elicitation methods are not documented, as often occurs in ecological research. In this chapter, we describe software that can be combined with a well-structured elicitation process to improve the rigor of expert elicitation and documentation of the results

Focusing on patients : differences between the practice of expert and non-expert nephrology nurses

Specialisation in nursing enables a nurse to focus, in much greater depth, on the requisite knowledge and skills for providing patients with the best possible care. Nephrology nursing is one such area where specialisation has evolved. The characteristic focus of practice emerged as an important feature during a study into the process of expertise acquisition in nephrology nursing practice. Using grounded theory methodology, this study involved 6 non-expert and 11 expert nurses and took place in one renal unit in New South Wales. Nephrology nursing practice was observed for 103 hours, and this was immediately followed by semi-structured interviews. The characteristic of focus was conceptualised as the nurses' centre of attention or concentration while they were undertaking nursing activities. Focus ranged from inexperienced non-expert nurses concentrating predominantly on the immediate task at hand, experienced non-expert nurses who focussed on the medium term to expert nurses who viewed actions (and their possible consequences) more broadly and in the longer term. Of significance to nursing, is how nephrology nurses alter their focus of practice as they acquire and exercise their developing expertise in this specialty.

Understanding the role of knowledge in the practice of expert nephrology nurses in Australia

This paper, which is abstracted from a larger study into the acquisition and exercise of nephrology nursing expertise, aims to explore the role of knowledge in expert practice. Using grounded theory methodology, the study involved 17 registered nurses who were practicing in a metropolitan renal unit in New South Wales, Australia. Concurrent data collection and analysis was undertaken, incorporating participants' observations and interviews. Having extensive nephrology nursing knowledge was a striking characteristic of a nursing expert. Expert nurses clearly relied on and utilized extensive nephrology nursing knowledge to practice. Of importance for nursing, the results of this study indicate that domain-specific knowledge is a crucial feature of expert practice.

Uncovering the evidence of non-expert nephrology nursing practice

Expertise in nursing has been widely studied although there have been no previous studies into what constitutes expertise in nephrology (renal) nursing. This paper, which is abstracted from a larger study into the acquisition and exercise of nephrology nursing expertise, provides evidence of the characteristics and practices of non-expert nephrology nurses. Using the grounded theory method, the study took place in one renal unit in New South Wales, Australia, and involved six non-expert and 11 expert nurses. Sampling was purposive then theoretical. Simultaneous data collection and analysis using participant observation, review of nursing documentation and semistructured interviews was undertaken. The study revealed a three-stage skills-acquisitive process that was identified as non-expert, experienced non-expert and expert stages. Non-expert nurses showed superficial nephrology nursing knowledge and limited experience; they were acquiring basic nephrology nursing skills and possessed a narrow focus of practice.

Multitask learning with expert advice

We consider the problem of prediction with expert advice in the setting where a forecaster is presented with several online prediction tasks. Instead of competing against the best expert separately on each task, we assume the tasks are related, and thus we expect that a few experts will perform well on the entire set of tasks. That is, our forecaster would like, on each task, to compete against the best expert chosen from a small set of experts. While we describe the “ideal” algorithm and its performance bound, we show that the computation required for this algorithm is as hard as computation of a matrix permanent. We present an efficient algorithm based on mixing priors, and prove a bound that is nearly as good for the sequential task presentation case. We also consider a harder case where the task may change arbitrarily from round to round, and we develop an efficient approximate randomized algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques.

Multitask learning with expert advice

We consider the problem of prediction with expert advice in the setting where a forecaster is presented with several online prediction tasks. Instead of competing against the best expert separately on each task, we assume the tasks are related, and thus we expect that a few experts will perform well on the entire set of tasks. That is, our forecaster would like, on each task, to compete against the best expert chosen from a small set of experts. While we describe the "ideal" algorithm and its performance bound, we show that the computation required for this algorithm is as hard as computation of a matrix permanent. We present an efficient algorithm based on mixing priors, and prove a bound that is nearly as good for the sequential task presentation case. We also consider a harder case where the task may change arbitrarily from round to round, and we develop an efficient approximate randomized algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques.

Helping someone with problem drinking: Mental health first aid guidelines - a Delphi expert consensus study

Background Alcohol is a leading risk factor for avoidable disease burden. Research suggests that a drinker's social network can play an integral role in addressing hazardous (i.e., high-risk) or problem drinking. Often however, social networks do not have adequate mental health literacy (i.e., knowledge about mental health problems, like problem drinking, or how to treat them). This is a concern as the response that a drinker receives from their social network can have a substantial impact on their willingness to seek help. This paper describes the development of mental health first aid guidelines that inform community members on how to help someone who may have, or may be developing, a drinking problem (i.e., alcohol abuse or dependence). Methods A systematic review of the research and lay literature was conducted to develop a 285-item survey containing strategies on how to help someone who may have, or may be developing, a drinking problem. Two panels of experts (consumers/carers and clinicians) individually rated survey items, using a Delphi process. Surveys were completed online or via postal mail. Participants were 99 consumers, carers and clinicians with experience or expertise in problem drinking from Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Items that reached consensus on importance were retained and written into guidelines. Results The overall response rate across all three rounds was 68.7% (67.6% consumers/carers, 69.2% clinicians), with 184 first aid strategies rated as essential or important by ≥80% of panel members. The endorsed guidelines provide guidance on how to: recognize problem drinking; approach someone if there is concern about their drinking; support the person to change their drinking; respond if they are unwilling to change their drinking; facilitate professional help seeking and respond if professional help is refused; and manage an alcohol-related medical emergency. Conclusion The guidelines provide a consensus-based resource for community members seeking to help someone with a drinking problem. Improving community awareness and understanding of how to identify and support someone with a drinking problem may lead to earlier recognition of problem drinking and greater facilitation of professional help seeking.

Expert science teacher's notion of scientific literacy

This paper will report on the way expert science teachers’ conceive of scientific literacy in their classrooms, the values related to scientific literacy they hold and how this conception and the underpinning values affect their teaching practice. Three perceived expert science teachers who teach both at senior and middle school levels and across the range of sub-disciplines (one senior biology, one senior chemistry and one senior physics) were interviewed about their understanding of scientific literacy and how this influenced their teaching practice. The three teachers were video recorded teaching a junior science class and a senior science class. The data were analysed to identify values that underpin their conceptions of science and science education. The analysis focussed on the matching of the verbalised conceptions and values with their practice of teaching science. This paper will report on these data.

Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks : understanding probability

An introduction to thinking about and understanding probability that highlights the main pits and trapfalls that befall logical reasoning

Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks, Part 1 of 4 : understanding probability

An introduction to elicitation of experts' probabilities, which illustrates common problems with reasoning and how to circumvent them during elicitation.