The Emperor Has New Clothes: Empirical Tests of Mainstream Theories of Economic Growth

Modern macroeconomic theory utilises optimal control techniques to model the maximisation of individual well-being using a lifetime utility function. Agents face choices over current and future consumption (with resultant implied savings decisions) seeking to maximise the present value of current plus future well-being. However, such inter-temporal welfare-maximising assumptions remain empirically untested. In the work presented here we test whether welfare was in (historical) fact maximised in the US between 1870-2000 and find empirical support for the optimising basis of growth theory, but only once a comprehensive view of what constitutes a country’s wealth or capital is taken into account.

"Periodic crises": Clément Juglar between theories of crises and theories of business cycles

Business cycle theory is normally described as having evolved out of a previous tradition of writers focusing exclusively on crises. In this account, the turning point is seen as residing in Clément Juglar's contribution on commercial crises and their periodicity. It is well known that the champion of this view is Schumpeter, who propagated it on several occasions. The same author, however, pointed to a number of other writers who, before and at the same time as Juglar, stressed one or another of the aspects for which Juglar is credited primacy, including the recognition of periodicity and the identification of endogenous elements enabling the recognition of crises as a self-generating phenomenon. There is indeed a vast literature, both primary and secondary, relating to the debates on crises and fluctuations around the middle of the nineteenth century, from which it is apparent that Juglar's book Des Crises Commerciales et de leur Retour Périodique en France, en Angleterre et aux États-Unis (originally published in 1862 and very much revised and enlarged in 1889) did not come out of the blue but was one of the products of an intellectual climate inducing the thinking of crises not as unrelated events but as part of a more complex phenomenon consisting of recurring crises related to the development of the commercial world - an interpretation corroborated by the almost regular occurrence of crises at about 10-year intervals.

Primordial Perturbations in Einstein-Aether theories

El nostre objectiu es l'estudi d'extensions de la Relativitat General i, en particular, estem interessats en les teories que continguin camps vectorials addicionals. En aquests tipus de teories es necessari imposar que el vector ha de tenir norma fixa per evitar la presència d'un fantasma o grau de llibertat amb terme cinètic negatiu, i això implica que la simetria Lorentz està trencada espontàniament. El camp del aether només interactua gravitatòriament i la seva presència es difícil de detectar, no obstant això, durant inflació les fluctuacions del buit a escales petites d'un camp lleuger pot deixar una empremta en observables com les anisotropies del fons de radiació de microones. Les fluctuacions del Einstein-aether es comporten com els camps sense massa i això fa que inflació generi modes de longitud de ona llarga en els sectors escalar i vectorial. Hem estudiat la signatura del Einstein-aether dins l'espectre de pertorbacions primordials lluny del límit de de Sitter de inflació. Aquests modes escalars i vectorials poden deixar una empremta significativa en la radiació de fons de microones en funció dels paràmetres del model. Les observacions del fons de radiació de microones imposen restriccions fenomenològiques que redueixen els límits existents per aquesta classe de teoria. Amb aquest estudi del aether també esperem millorar el coneixement que tenim de una classe més ampla de teories que exhibeixen el mateix tipus de trencament de simetria.

A survey on recent p-adic integration theories and arithmetic applications

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

Analysing variations in health expectancy - seminar presentations

A recent report by the Centre for Ageing Research and Development in Ireland (CARDI) entitled Illustrating Ageing in Ireland, North and South found that since the 1920s the number of years males can expect to live rose by about 20 years while the number of years females can expect to live rose by about 24-25 years.  It is not clear, however, if these years of life gained are lived in good health.While there is considerable policy focus on reducing inequalities in life expectancy, much less is known about the variation in health expectancy that exists across the island of Ireland. The debate hinges on our understanding of what is driving the changes in life expectancy, healthy life expectancy and the gap between the two.IPH in association with CARDI, hosted a Health Analysts' Special Interest Group (HASIG) seminar discussing the policy implications of this debate. The seminar introduced the range of health expectancy measures and compared them to life expectancy.  Initial findings from the all-island study of life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were also presented.

Paper money and national distress: William Huskisson and the early theories of credit, speculation and crises

This paper examines the explanation of commercial crises offered by William Huskisson in 1810 in the wake of the debate on the Bullion Report. Huskisson argued that the suspension of convertibility made it possible to extend issues of paper currency beyond its proper limits. Such an expansion, being in the interest of all parties concerned, would actually take place and stimulate excessive speculations, which would eventually prove unsustainable and bring generalized ruin and distress. Although some elements of this explanations were not new (having been anticipated by writers sucha as James Currie in 1793, William Roscoe in 1793, William Anderson in 1797 and an anonymous in 1796), Huskisson's explanation is more systematic and better organized, and his emphasis on the endogenous character of the crisis and on the instability of the dynamics of trade and credit makes it an interesting foreshadower of the theories of crises that were advanced half a century later.

Authors' response to 'Limitless longevity': the contribution of rectangularization to the secular increase in life expectancy: an empirical study.

Related article : Letter to the Editor: Karin Modig, Sven Drefahl, and Anders Ahlbon.Limitless longevity: Comment on the Contribution of rectangularization to the secular increase of life expectancy

Changes in the NI life expectancy gap 1999/01 to 2004/06

In Northern Ireland between 1999-01 and 2004-06 male life expectancy at birth increased from 74.8 to 76.2 years (an increase of 1.4 years) and female life expectancy increased from 79.8 to 81.0 years (an increase of 1.3 years). Declining mortality rates due to Coronary Heart Disease, strokes and other circulatory causes, as well as cancer and respiratory disease caused life expectancy to increase.However, these increases were partially offset by increasing mortality rates over time due to accidental deaths, suicides and chronic liver disease and other causes of death (not separately identified).

Life Expectancy and All Age All Cause Mortality Monitoring (Overall and Health Inequalities) - Update to include data for 2007

The latest annual update on life expectancy data and all age all cause mortality rates, with data updated to 2005-07, which are used to monitor progress against Department of Health targets for overall life expectancy in England, and for the gap in life expectancy between the areas with the worst health and deprivation indicators (the Spearhead group) and the England average, was released on 13th November 2008 according to the arrangements approved by the UK Statistics Authority.

Mortality target monitoring (life expectancy and all-age all-cause mortality, overall and inequalities)

The latest annual update on life expectancy data and all age all cause mortality rates, with data updated to 2006-08, which are used to monitor progress against Department of Health targets for overall life expectancy in England, and for the gap in life expectancy between the areas with the worst health and deprivation indicators (the Spearhead group) and the England average, was released on 5th November 2009 according to the arrangements approved by the UK Statistics Authority. �� The key points from the latest release are: �� - The overall life expectancy and all age all cause mortality (AAACM) trends for both males and females are broadly on course to deliver the target of 78.6 years for men and 82.5 years for women by 2010 (2009-11). �� - In 2006-08, life expectancy at birth in England continued to increase for both males and females, and reached its highest level on record at 77.7 years for males and 81.9 years for females. �� - Three-year average AAACM rates for England have fallen in each period since 1995-97. �� - In 2006-08, average life expectancy at birth in the Spearhead Group was 75.8 years for males and 80.4 years for females, having increased in each period since 1995-97. �� - However, England average life expectancy at birth has increased more quickly over this period, and, in 2006-08, the relative gap ��� i.e. percentage difference - in life expectancy at birth between England and the Spearhead Group was wider than at the baseline for the target (1995-97) for both males and females. �� - For males the relative gap was 7% wider than at the baseline (compared with 4% wider in 2005-07), for females 14% wider (compared with 11% wider in 2005-07).�� �� Therefore, the target to narrow the life expectancy gap between the Spearhead Group and the England average, by at least 10% by 2010, remains challenging.��Three-year average AAACM rates for the Spearhead Group have fallen in each period since 1995-97 for both males and females. Download Mortality target monitoring (life expectancy and all-age all-cause mortality, overall and inequalities): update to include data for 2008 (PDF, 683K)Download pre-release access list (PDF, 10k)��

Tackling inequalities in life expectancy in areas with the worst health and deprivation: England

While overall health outcomes in England has improved during the last Labour administration - inequalities in health has increased, according to the latest report published by the House of Commons Public Accounts Committee today. People living in the poorest communities in England are more likely to die two years earlier than people living in more affluent neighbourhoods, leading to 3,335 premature mortality the report claims. Between, 1997 and 2010, the NHS budget has doubled and the country is more prosperous than ever before, yet the gap in life expectancy between the poorest areas and the national average grew by 7% for men and 14% for women, the committee concluded.

Inequality in Healthy Life Expectancy at Birth by National Deciles of Area Deprivation: England, 2010-12

This release from the Office for National Statistics contains a reference table providing Healthy Life Expectancy (HLE) and Life Expectancy (LE) at birth for national deciles of area deprivation in England. It also provides two measures of inequality, the range and Slope Index of Inequality (SII), for the period 2010-12.Key findingsMales in the most deprived areas have a life expectancy 9.1 years shorter (when measured by the range) than males in the least deprived areas; they also spend a smaller proportion of their shorter lives in ‘Good’ health (70.8% compared to 85.0%).Females in the most deprived areas have a life expectancy 6.8 years shorter (when measured by the range) than females in the least deprived areas; they also expect to spend 17.2% less of their life in ‘Good’ health (66.1% compared to 83.2%).Males in the most advantaged areas can expect to live 19.4 years longer in ‘Good’ health than those in the least advantaged areas as measured by the Slope Index of Inequality (SII). For females this was 19.8 years.Read the release here.��

Identifying priorities for increasing life expectancy within the East Midlands

A set of life expectancy profiles for each Local Authority, County and Primary Care Trust (PCT) in the Region. These profiles highlight the causes of death that result in the largest reduction in life expectancy using England's mortality experience as the benchmark. They are part of wider programme of work aimed at supporting the regional Health Inequalities Task Group and local organisations in identifying key priorities for tackling health inequalities. This document contains all five county profiles in one: they are also available individually.

Identifying priorities for increasing life expectancy in the most deprived areas within the East Midlands

A set of life expectancy profiles for each Primary Care Trust (PCT) in the Region. These profiles show the causes of death that account for the largest shortfall in life expectancy in the most deprived areas of the PCT using the PCT's mortality experience as the benchmark. They are part of wider programme of work aimed at supporting the regional Health Inequalities Task Group and local organisations in identifying key priorities for tackling health inequalities.