994 resultados para Expansion multi-périodes
Resumo:
We present the first 7500 yr long multi-proxy record from a raised bog located at the southern Baltic coast, Poland. Testate amoebae, plant macrofossils, pollen and microscopic charcoal were used to reconstruct environmental changes in Pomerania (northern Poland, Kaszuby Lakeland) from a 7-m thick peat archive of Stążki bog dated 5500 BC–AD 1250. We obtained a record of proxies representing different spatial scales: regional vegetation changed simultaneously with local vegetation, and testate amoebae showed a pattern of change similar to that of pollen and plant macrofossils. On the basis of the combined proxies, we distinguished three hydroclimatic stages: moist conditions 5500–3450 BC, drier conditions with regionally increased fires up to 600 BC, and again moist conditions from 600 BC onward. During the drier interval, a first climatic shift to wetter conditions at 1700 BC is indicated by regional pollen as the replacement of Corylus by Carpinus, and locally by, e.g., the increase of Hyalosphenia elegans and mire plants such as Sphagnum sec. Cuspidata. Furthermore, we observed a correlation since 600 BC among the re-expansion of Carpinus (after a sudden decline ca. 950 BC), increased peat accumulation, increase of Hyalosphenia species, and fewer fires, suggesting lower evapotranspiration and a stable high water table in the bog. Fagus started to expand after AD 810 gradually replacing Carpinus, which was possibly due to a gradually more oceanic climate, though we cannot exclude human impact on the forests. Peat accumulation, determined by radiocarbon dating, varied with bog surface wetness. The hydroclimatic phases found in Stążki peatland are similar to moisture changes recorded in other sites from Poland and Europe. This is the first detailed record of hydroclimatic change during the Holocene in the southern Baltic region, so it forms a reference site for further studies on other southern Baltic bogs that are in progress.
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Current models of embryological development focus on intracellular processes such as gene expression and protein networks, rather than on the complex relationship between subcellular processes and the collective cellular organization these processes support. We have explored this collective behavior in the context of neocortical development, by modeling the expansion of a small number of progenitor cells into a laminated cortex with layer and cell type specific projections. The developmental process is steered by a formal language analogous to genomic instructions, and takes place in a physically realistic three-dimensional environment. A common genome inserted into individual cells control their individual behaviors, and thereby gives rise to collective developmental sequences in a biologically plausible manner. The simulation begins with a single progenitor cell containing the artificial genome. This progenitor then gives rise through a lineage of offspring to distinct populations of neuronal precursors that migrate to form the cortical laminae. The precursors differentiate by extending dendrites and axons, which reproduce the experimentally determined branching patterns of a number of different neuronal cell types observed in the cat visual cortex. This result is the first comprehensive demonstration of the principles of self-construction whereby the cortical architecture develops. In addition, our model makes several testable predictions concerning cell migration and branching mechanisms.
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The north-eastern escarpment of Madagascar harbours the island’s last remaining large-scale humid forest massifs surrounded by a small-scale agricultural mosaic. There is high deforestation, commonly thought to be caused by shifting cultivation practiced by local land users to produce upland rice. However, little is known about the dynamics between forest and shifting cultivation systems at a regional level. Our study presents a first attempt to quantify changes in the extent of forest and different agricultural land cover classes, and to identify the main dynamics of land cover change for two intervals, 1995–2005 and 2005–2011. Over the 16-year study period, the speed of forest loss increased, the total area of upland rice production remained almost stable, and the area of irrigated rice fields slightly increased. While our findings seem to confirm a general trend of land use intensification, deforestation through shifting cultivation is still on the rise. Deforestation mostly affects the small forest fragments interspersed in the agricultural mosaic and is slowly leading to a homogenization of the landscape. These findings have important implications for future interventions to slow forest loss in the region, as the processes of agricultural expansion through shifting cultivation versus intensified land use cannot per se be considered mutually exclusive.
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Detailed analyses of the Lake Van pollen, Ca/K ratio and stable oxygen isotope record allow the identification of millennial-scale vegetation and environmental changes in eastern Anatolia throughout the last glacial (~75-15 ka BP). The climate within the last glacial was cold and dry, with low arboreal pollen (AP) levels. The driest and coldest period corresponds to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 2 (~28-14.5 ka BP) dominated by the highest values of xerophytic steppe vegetation. Our high-resolution multi proxy record shows rapid expansions and contractions of tree populations that reflects variability in temperature and moisture availability. This rapid vegetation and environmental changes can be linked to the stadial-interstadial pattern of the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events as recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Periods of reduced moisture availability were characterized by enhanced xerophytic species and high terrigenous input from the Lake Van catchment area. Furthermore, comparison with the marine realm reveals that the complex atmosphere-ocean interaction can be explained by the strength and position of the westerlies, which is responsible for the supply of humidity in eastern Anatolia. Influenced by diverse topography of the Lake Van catchment, larger DO interstadials (e.g. DO 19, 17-16, 14, 12 and 8) show the highest expansion of temperate species within the last glacial. However, Heinrich events (HE), characterized by highest concentrations of ice-rafted debris (IRD) in marine sediments, are identified in eastern Anatolia by AP values not lower and high steppe components not more abundant than during DO stadials. In addition, this work is a first attempt to establish a continuous microscopic charcoal record over the last glacial in the Near East, which documents an initial immediate response to millennial-scale climate and environmental variability and enables us to shed light on the history of fire activity during the last glacial.
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A high-resolution multi-proxy record from Lake Van, eastern Anatolia, derived from a lacustrine sequence cored at the 357 m deep Ahlat Ridge (AR), allows a comprehensive view of paleoclimate and environmental history in the continental Near East during the last interglacial (LI). We combined paleovegetation (pollen), stable oxygen isotope (d18Obulk) and XRF data from the same sedimentary sequence, showing distinct variations during the period from 135 to 110 ka ago leading into and out of full interglacial conditions. The last interglacial plateau, as defined by the presence of thermophilous steppe-forest communities, lasted ca. 13.5 ka, from ~129.1-115.6 ka BP. The detailed palynological sequence at Lake Van documents a vegetation succession with several climatic phases: (I) the Pistacia zone (ca. 131.2-129.1 ka BP) indicates summer dryness and mild winter conditions during the initial warming, (II) the Quercus-Ulmus zone (ca. 129.1-127.2 ka BP) occurred during warm and humid climate conditions with enhanced evaporation, (III) the Carpinus zone (ca. 127.2-124.1 ka BP) suggest increasingly cooler and wetter conditions, and (IV) the expansion of Pinus at ~124.1 ka BP marks the onset of a colder/drier environment that extended into the interval of global ice growth. Pollen data suggest migration of thermophilous trees from refugial areas at the beginning of the last interglacial. Analogous to the current interglacial, the migration documents a time lag between the onset of climatic amelioration and the establishment of an oak steppe-forest, spanning 2.1 ka. Hence, the major difference between the last interglacial compared to the current interglacial (Holocene) is the abundance of Pinus as well as the decrease of deciduous broad-leaved trees, indicating higher continentality during the last interglacial. Finally, our results demonstrate intra-interglacial variability in the low mid-latitudes and suggest a close connection with the high-frequency climate variability recorded in Greenland ice cores.
Resumo:
Vivimos una época en la que el mundo se transforma aceleradamente. La globalización está siguiendo un curso imparable, la población mundial así como la población urbana siguen creciendo, y en los países emergentes los ingresos promedios aumentan, resultando en un cambio también acelerado de las dietas y hábitos alimentarios. En conjunto esos factores están causando un aumento fundamental de la demanda de alimentos. Junto con la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, estos procesos han provocado un crecimiento del comercio internacional de alimentos durante la última década. Dado que muchos países de América Latina están dotados de abundancia de recursos naturales, estas tendencias han producido un crecimiento rápido de las exportaciones de bienes primarios desde América Latina al resto del mundo. En sólo 30 años la participación en el mercado agrícola de América Latina casi se ha duplicado, desde 10% en 1980 a 18% en 2010. Este aumento del comercio agrícola ha dado lugar a un debate sobre una serie de cuestiones cruciales relacionadas con los impactos del comercio en la seguridad alimentaria mundial, en el medio ambiente o en la reducción de la pobreza rural en países en desarrollo. Esta tesis aplica un marco integrado para analizar varios impactos relacionados con la transformación de los mercados agrícolas y los mercados rurales debidos a la globalización y, en particular, al progresivo aumento del comercio internacional. En concreto, la tesis aborda los siguientes temas: En primer lugar, la producción mundial de alimentos tendrá que aumentar considerablemente para poder satisfacer la demanda de una población mundial de 9000 millones personas en 2050, lo cual plantea grandes desafíos sobre los sistemas de la producción de alimentos. Alcanzar este logro, sin comprometer la integridad del medio ambiente en regiones exportadoras, es un reto aún mayor. En este contexto, la tesis analiza los efectos de la liberalización del comercio mundial, considerando distintas tecnologías de producción agraria, sobre unos indicadores de seguridad alimentaria en diferentes regiones del mundo y sobre distintos indicadores ambientales, teniendo en cuenta escalas diferentes en América Latina y el Caribe. La tesis utiliza el modelo “International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)” – un modelo dinámico de equilibrio parcial del sector agrícola a escala global – para modelar la apertura de los mercados agrícolas así como diferentes escenarios de la producción hasta el año 2050. Los resultados del modelo están vinculados a modelos biofísicos para poder evaluar los cambios en la huella hídrica y la calidad del agua, así como para cuantificar los impactos del cambio en el uso del suelo sobre la biodiversidad y los stocks de carbono en 2050. Los resultados indican que la apertura de los mercados agrícolas es muy importante para mejorar la seguridad alimentaria a nivel mundial, sin embargo, produce también presiones ambientales indeseables en algunas regiones de América Latina. Contrastando dos escenarios que consideran distintas modos de producción, la expansión de la tierra agrícola frente a un escenario de la producción más intensiva, se demuestra que las mejoras de productividad son generalmente superiores a la expansión de las tierras agrícolas, desde un punto de vista económico e ambiental. En cambio, los escenarios de intensificación sostenible no sólo hacen posible una mayor producción de alimentos, sino que también generan menos impactos medioambientales que los otros escenarios futuros en todas sus dimensiones: biodiversidad, carbono, emisiones de nitratos y uso del agua. El análisis muestra que hay un “trade-off” entre el objetivo de alcanzar la sostenibilidad ambiental y el objetivo de la seguridad alimentaria, independiente del manejo agrícola en el futuro. En segundo lugar, a la luz de la reciente crisis de los precios de alimentos en los años 2007/08, la tesis analiza los impactos de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas en la transmisión de precios de los alimentos en seis países de América Latina: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y el Perú. Para identificar las posibles relaciones de cointegración entre los índices de precios al consumidor de alimentos y los índices de precios de agrarios internacionales, sujetos a diferentes grados de apertura de mercados agrícolas en los seis países de América Latina, se utiliza un modelo simple de corrección de error (single equation error correction). Los resultados indican que la integración global de los mercados agrícolas ha dado lugar a diferentes tasas de transmisión de precios en los países investigados. Sobre todo en el corto plazo, las tasas de transmisión dependen del grado de apertura comercial, mientras que en el largo plazo las tasas de transmisión son elevadas, pero en gran medida independientes del régimen de comercio. Por lo tanto, durante un período de shocks de precios mundiales una mayor apertura del comercio trae consigo más inestabilidad de los precios domésticos a corto plazo y la resultante persistencia en el largo plazo. Sin embargo, estos resultados no verifican necesariamente la utilidad de las políticas comerciales, aplicadas frecuentemente por los gobiernos para amortiguar los shocks de precios. Primero, porque existe un riesgo considerable de volatilidad de los precios debido a cambios bruscos de la oferta nacional si se promueve la autosuficiencia en el país; y segundo, la política de proteccionismo asume el riesgo de excluir el país de participar en las cadenas de suministro de alto valor del sector agrícola, y por lo tanto esa política podría obstaculizar el desarrollo económico. Sin embargo, es indispensable establecer políticas efectivas para reducir la vulnerabilidad de los hogares a los aumentos repentinos de precios de alimentos, lo cual requiere una planificación gubernamental precisa con el presupuesto requerido disponible. En tercer lugar, la globalización afecta a la estructura de una economía y, por medios distintos, la distribución de los ingreso en un país. Perú sirve como ejemplo para investigar más profundamente las cuestiones relacionadas con los cambios en la distribución de los ingresos en zonas rurales. Perú, que es un país que está cada vez más integrado en los mercados mundiales, consiguió importantes descensos en la pobreza extrema en sus zonas rurales, pero a la vez adolece de alta incidencia de pobreza moderada y de desigualdad de los ingresos en zonas rural al menos durante el periodo comprendido entre 2004 y 2012. Esta parte de la tesis tiene como objetivo identificar las fuerzas impulsoras detrás de estas dinámicas en el Perú mediante el uso de un modelo de microsimulación basado en modelos de generación de ingresos aplicado a nivel los hogares rurales. Los resultados indican que la fuerza principal detrás de la reducción de la pobreza ha sido el crecimiento económico general de la economía, debido a las condiciones macroeconómicas favorables durante el periodo de estudio. Estos efectos de crecimiento beneficiaron a casi todos los sectores rurales, y dieron lugar a la disminución de la pobreza rural extrema, especialmente entre los agricultores de papas y de maíz. En parte, estos agricultores probablemente se beneficiaron de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, que es lo que podría haber provocado un aumento de los precios al productor en tiempos de altos precios mundiales de los alimentos. Sin embargo, los resultados también sugieren que para una gran parte de la población más pobre existían barreras de entrada a la hora de poder participar en el empleo asalariado fuera de la agricultura o en la producción de cultivos de alto valor. Esto podría explicarse por la falta de acceso a unos activos importantes: por ejemplo, el nivel de educación de los pobres era apenas mejor en 2012 que en 2004; y también las dotaciones de tierra y de mano de obra, sobre todo de los productores pobres de maíz y patata, disminuyeron entre 2004 y 2012. Esto lleva a la conclusión de que aún hay margen para aplicar políticas para facilitar el acceso a estos activos, que podría contribuir a la erradicación de la pobreza rural. La tesis concluye que el comercio agrícola puede ser un importante medio para abastecer una población mundial creciente y más rica con una cantidad suficiente de calorías. Para evitar adversos efectos ambientales e impactos negativos para los consumidores y de los productores pobres, el enfoque debe centrarse en las mejoras de la productividad agrícola, teniendo en cuenta los límites ambientales y ser socialmente inclusivo. En este sentido, será indispensable seguir desarrollando soluciones tecnológicas que garanticen prácticas de producción agrícola minimizando el uso de recursos naturales. Además, para los pequeños pobres agricultores será fundamental eliminar las barreras de entrada a los mercados de exportación que podría tener efectos indirectos favorables a través de la adopción de nuevas tecnologías alcanzables a través de mercados internacionales. ABSTRACT The world is in a state of rapid transition. Ongoing globalization, population growth, rising living standards and increasing urbanization, accompanied by changing dietary patterns throughout the world, are increasing the demand for food. Together with more open trade regimes, this has triggered growing international agricultural trade during the last decade. For many Latin American countries, which are gifted with relative natural resource abundance, these trends have fueled rapid export growth of primary goods. In just 30 years, the Latin American agricultural market share has almost doubled from 10% in 1980 to 18% in 2010. These market developments have given rise to a debate around a number of crucial issues related to the role of agricultural trade for global food security, for the environment or for poverty reduction in developing countries. This thesis uses an integrated framework to analyze a broad array of possible impacts related to transforming agricultural and rural markets in light of globalization, and in particular of increasing trade activity. Specifically, the following issues are approached: First, global food production will have to rise substantially by the year 2050 to meet effective demand of a nine billion people world population which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity in exporting regions is an even greater challenge. In this context, the thesis explores the effects of future global trade liberalization on food security indicators in different world regions and on a variety of environmental indicators at different scales in Latin America and the Caribbean, in due consideration of different future agricultural production practices. The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) –a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)– is applied to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050. Model results are linked to biophysical models, used to assess changes in water footprints and water quality, as well as impacts on biodiversity and carbon stocks from land use change by 2050. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Most promising for achieving food security and environmental goals, in equal measure, is the sustainable intensification scenario. However, the analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths. Second, in light of the recent food price crisis of 2007/08, the thesis looks at the impacts of increasing agricultural market integration on food price transmission from global to domestic markets in six Latin American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. To identify possible cointegrating relationships between the domestic food consumer price indices and world food price levels, subject to different degrees of agricultural market integration in the six Latin American countries, a single equation error correction model is used. Results suggest that global agricultural market integration has led to different levels of price path-through in the studied countries. Especially in the short-run, transmission rates depend on the degree of trade openness, while in the long-run transmission rates are high, but largely independent of the country-specific trade regime. Hence, under world price shocks more trade openness brings with it more price instability in the short-term and the resulting persistence in the long-term. However, these findings do not necessarily verify the usefulness of trade policies, often applied by governments to buffer such price shocks. First, because there is a considerable risk of price volatility due to domestic supply shocks if self-sufficiency is promoted. Second, protectionism bears the risk of excluding a country from participating in beneficial high-value agricultural supply chains, thereby hampering economic development. Nevertheless, to reduce households’ vulnerability to sudden and large increases of food prices, effective policies to buffer food price shocks should be put in place, but must be carefully planned with the required budget readily available. Third, globalization affects the structure of an economy and, by different means, the distribution of income in a country. Peru serves as an example to dive deeper into questions related to changes in the income distribution in rural areas. Peru, a country being increasingly integrated into global food markets, experienced large drops in extreme rural poverty, but persistently high rates of moderate rural poverty and rural income inequality between 2004 and 2012. The thesis aims at disentangling the driving forces behind these dynamics by using a microsimulation model based on rural household income generation models. Results provide evidence that the main force behind poverty reduction was overall economic growth of the economy due to generally favorable macroeconomic market conditions. These growth effects benefited almost all rural sectors, and led to declines in extreme rural poverty, especially among potato and maize farmers. In part, these farmers probably benefited from policy changes towards more open trade regimes and the resulting higher producer prices in times of elevated global food price levels. However, the results also suggest that entry barriers existed for the poorer part of the population to participate in well-paid wage-employment outside of agriculture or in high-value crop production. This could be explained by a lack of sufficient access to important rural assets. For example, poor people’s educational attainment was hardly better in 2012 than in 2004. Also land and labor endowments, especially of (poor) maize and potato growers, rather decreased than increased over time. This leads to the conclusion that there is still scope for policy action to facilitate access to these assets, which could contribute to the eradication of rural poverty. The thesis concludes that agricultural trade can be one important means to provide a growing and richer world population with sufficient amounts of calories. To avoid adverse environmental effects and negative impacts for poor food consumers and producers, the focus should lie on agricultural productivity improvements, considering environmental limits and be socially inclusive. In this sense, it will be crucial to further develop technological solutions that guarantee resource-sparing agricultural production practices, and to remove entry barriers for small poor farmers to export markets which might allow for technological spill-over effects from high-value global agricultural supply chains.
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Robotics is a field that presents a large number of problems because it depends on a large number of disciplines, devices, technologies and tasks. Its expansion from perfectly controlled industrial environments toward open and dynamic environment presents a many new challenges, such as robots household robots or professional robots. To facilitate the rapid development of robotic systems, low cost, reusability of code, its medium and long term maintainability and robustness are required novel approaches to provide generic models and software systems who develop paradigms capable of solving these problems. For this purpose, in this paper we propose a model based on multi-agent systems inspired by the human nervous system able to transfer the control characteristics of the biological system and able to take advantage of the best properties of distributed software systems.
Resumo:
Robotics is an emerging field with great activity. Robotics is a field that presents several problems because it depends on a large number of disciplines, technologies, devices and tasks. Its expansion from perfectly controlled industrial environments toward open and dynamic environment presents a many new challenges. New uses are, for example, household robots or professional robots. To facilitate the low cost, rapid development of robotic systems, reusability of code, its medium and long term maintainability and robustness are required novel approaches to provide generic models and software systems who develop paradigms capable of solving these problems. For this purpose, in this paper we propose a model based on multi-agent systems inspired by the human nervous system able to transfer the control characteristics of the biological system and able to take advantage of the best properties of distributed software systems. Specifically, we model the decentralized activity and hormonal variation.
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This dissertation focused on an increasingly prevalent phenomenon in today's global business environment—strategic alliance portfolio. Building on resource-based view, resource dependency theory and real options theory, this dissertation adopted a multi-dimensional perspective to examine the performance implications, strategic antecedents of alliance portfolio configuration, and its strategic effects on firms' decision-making on their continuing foreign expansion. The dissertation consisted of three interrelated essays, each of which dealt with a specific research question. In the first essay I applied a two-dimensional construct that embraces both alliance relations' and alliance partners' attributes to illustrate alliance portfolio configuration. Based on this framework, a longitudinal study was conducted attempting to explore the performance properties of alliance portfolio configuration. The results revealed that alliance diversity and partner diversity have different relative contributions to firms' economic performance. The relationship between alliance portfolio configuration and firm performance was shaped by degree of multinationality in a curvilinear pattern. The second essay attempted to identify the firm level driving forces of alliance portfolio configuration and how these forces interacting with firms' internationalization influence firms' strategic choices on alliance portfolio configuration. The empirical results indicated that past alliance experience, slack resource and firms' brand images are three critical determinants shaping alliance portfolios, but those shaping relationships are conditioned by firms' multinationality. The third essay primarily employed real options theory to build a conceptual framework, revealing how country-, alliance portfolio-, firm-, and industry level factors and their interactions influence firms' strategic decision-making on post-entry continuing expansion in foreign markets. The two empirical studies were resided in global hospitality and travel industries and use panel data to test the relevant theoretical models. Overall, the dissertation advanced and enriched the theoretical domain of alliance portfolio. It particularly shed valuable insights on three fundamental questions in the domain of alliance portfolio research, namely "if and how alliance portfolios contribute to firms' economic performance"; "what determines the appearance of alliance portfolios”; and "how alliance portfolios affect firms' strategic decision-making". This dissertation also extended the international business and strategic management research on service multinationals' foreign expansion and performance.
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Neste artigo, pretende-se desenvolver uma versão desagregada da abordagem pós-Keynesiana para o crescimento econômico, mostrando que de fato esse modelo pode ser tratado como um caso particular do modelo Pasinettiano de mudança estrutural e crescimento econômico. Utilizando-se o conceito de integração vertical, torna-se possível conduzir a análise iniciada por Kaldor (1956) e Robinson (1956, 1962), e seguido por Dutt (1984), Rowthorn (1982) e, posteriormente, Bhaduri e Marglin (1990) em um modelo multi-sectorial em que há aumentos da demanda e produtividade em ritmos diferentes em cada setor. Ao adotar essa abordagem, é possível mostrar que a dinâmica de mudança estrutural está condicionada não apenas aos padrões de demanda de evolução das preferências e da difusão do progresso tecnológico, mas também com as características distributivas da economia, que podem dar origem a diferentes regimes setoriais de crescimento econômico. Além disso, é possível determinar a taxa natural de lucro que faz com que a taxa de mark-up seja constante ao longo do tempo. _________________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACT
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Metaphor is a multi-stage programming language extension to an imperative, object-oriented language in the style of C# or Java. This paper discusses some issues we faced when applying multi-stage language design concepts to an imperative base language and run-time environment. The issues range from dealing with pervasive references and open code to garbage collection and implementing cross-stage persistence.