Do Measurement Errors in GDP Announcements Cause Output Fluctuations?

This thesis studies empirically whether measurement errors in aggregate production statistics affect sentiment and future output. Initial announcements of aggregate production are subject to measurement error, because many of the data required to compile the statistics are produced with a lag. This measurement error can be gauged as the difference between the latest revised statistic and its initial announcement. Assuming aggregate production statistics help forecast future aggregate production, these measurement errors are expected to affect macroeconomic forecasts. Assuming agents’ macroeconomic forecasts affect their production choices, these measurement errors should affect future output through sentiment. This thesis is primarily empirical, so the theoretical basis, strategic complementarity, is discussed quite briefly. However, it is a model in which higher aggregate production increases each agent’s incentive to produce. In this circumstance a statistical announcement which suggests aggregate production is high would increase each agent’s incentive to produce, thus resulting in higher aggregate production. In this way the existence of strategic complementarity provides the theoretical basis for output fluctuations caused by measurement mistakes in aggregate production statistics. Previous empirical studies suggest that measurement errors in gross national product affect future aggregate production in the United States. Additionally it has been demonstrated that measurement errors in the Index of Leading Indicators affect forecasts by professional economists as well as future industrial production in the United States. This thesis aims to verify the applicability of these findings to other countries, as well as study the link between measurement errors in gross domestic product and sentiment. This thesis explores the relationship between measurement errors in gross domestic production and sentiment and future output. Professional forecasts and consumer sentiment in the United States and Finland, as well as producer sentiment in Finland, are used as the measures of sentiment. Using statistical techniques it is found that measurement errors in gross domestic product affect forecasts and producer sentiment. The effect on consumer sentiment is ambiguous. The relationship between measurement errors and future output is explored using data from Finland, United States, United Kingdom, New Zealand and Sweden. It is found that measurement errors have affected aggregate production or investment in Finland, United States, United Kingdom and Sweden. Specifically, it was found that overly optimistic statistics announcements are associated with higher output and vice versa.

Medication errors in residential aged care facilities: A distributed cognition analysis of the information exchange process

Background Medication safety is a pressing concern for residential aged care facilities (RACFs). Retrospective studies in RACF settings identify inadequate communication between RACFs, doctors, hospitals and community pharmacies as the major cause of medication errors. Existing literature offers limited insight about the gaps in the existing information exchange process that may lead to medication errors. The aim of this research was to explicate the cognitive distribution that underlies RACF medication ordering and delivery to identify gaps in medication-related information exchange which lead to medication errors in RACFs. Methods The study was undertaken in three RACFs in Sydney, Australia. Data were generated through ethnographic field work over a period of five months (May–September 2011). Triangulated analysis of data primarily focused on examining the transformation and exchange of information between different media across the process. Results The findings of this study highlight the extensive scope and intense nature of information exchange in RACF medication ordering and delivery. Rather than attributing error to individual care providers, the explication of distributed cognition processes enabled the identification of gaps in three information exchange dimensions which potentially contribute to the occurrence of medication errors namely: (1) design of medication charts which complicates order processing and record keeping (2) lack of coordination mechanisms between participants which results in misalignment of local practices (3) reliance on restricted communication bandwidth channels mainly telephone and fax which complicates the information processing requirements. The study demonstrates how the identification of these gaps enhances understanding of medication errors in RACFs. Conclusions Application of the theoretical lens of distributed cognition can assist in enhancing our understanding of medication errors in RACFs through identification of gaps in information exchange. Understanding the dynamics of the cognitive process can inform the design of interventions to manage errors and improve residents’ safety.

A study of errors that can occur when weighing infants

When infants are weighed at well baby or infant welfare clinics, the weight change from one visit to the next is used as a guide to the welfare of the child. Infant welfare clinic nurses are expert clinicians who use weight measurements as a rough indicator of well-being only, as it is well known by them that these measurements are fraught with error. This paper calculates the amount of error which was found in repeated tests of weights of infants, and in the weight changes brought about by biological variation. As a result, it is recommended that babies under nine months of age be weighed at clinic visits no less than a fortnight apart, and older infants, at least one month apart. If they are weighed more often, then the weight changes detected will be less than the amount of error which affects the measurements.

Clinical reasoning: The relative contribution of identification, interpretation and hypothesis errors to misdiagnosis

The aim of this study was to identify and describe the types of errors in clinical reasoning that contribute to poor diagnostic performance at different levels of medical training and experience. Three cohorts of subjects, second- and fourth- (final) year medical students and a group of general practitioners, completed a set of clinical reasoning problems. The responses of those whose scores fell below the 25th centile were analysed to establish the stage of the clinical reasoning process - identification of relevant information, interpretation or hypothesis generation - at which most errors occurred and whether this was dependent on problem difficulty and level of medical experience. Results indicate that hypothesis errors decrease as expertise increases but that identification and interpretation errors increase. This may be due to inappropriate use of pattern recognition or to failure of the knowledge base. Furthermore, although hypothesis errors increased in line with problem difficulty, identification and interpretation errors decreased. A possible explanation is that as problem difficulty increases, subjects at all levels of expertise are less able to differentiate between relevant and irrelevant clinical features and so give equal consideration to all information contained within a case. It is concluded that the development of clinical reasoning in medical students throughout the course of their pre-clinical and clinical education may be enhanced by both an analysis of the clinical reasoning process and a specific focus on each of the stages at which errors commonly occur.

Distributed Source Coding for Sensor Data Model and Estimation of Cluster Head Errors Using Bayesian and K-Near Neighborhood Classifiers in Deployment of Dense Wireless Sensor Networks

The lifetime calculation of large dense sensor networks with fixed energy resources and the remaining residual energy have shown that for a constant energy resource in a sensor network the fault rate at the cluster head is network size invariant when using the network layer with no MAC losses.Even after increasing the battery capacities in the nodes the total lifetime does not increase after a max limit of 8 times. As this is a serious limitation lots of research has been done at the MAC layer which allows to adapt to the specific connectivity, traffic and channel polling needs for sensor networks. There have been lots of MAC protocols which allow to control the channel polling of new radios which are available to sensor nodes to communicate. This further reduces the communication overhead by idling and sleep scheduling thus extending the lifetime of the monitoring application. We address the two issues which effects the distributed characteristics and performance of connected MAC nodes. (1) To determine the theoretical minimum rate based on joint coding for a correlated data source at the singlehop, (2a) to estimate cluster head errors using Bayesian rule for routing using persistence clustering when node densities are the same and stored using prior probability at the network layer, (2b) to estimate the upper bound of routing errors when using passive clustering were the node densities at the multi-hop MACS are unknown and not stored at the multi-hop nodes a priori. In this paper we evaluate many MAC based sensor network protocols and study the effects on sensor network lifetime. A renewable energy MAC routing protocol is designed when the probabilities of active nodes are not known a priori. From theoretical derivations we show that for a Bayesian rule with known class densities of omega1, omega2 with expected error P* is bounded by max error rate of P=2P* for single-hop. We study the effects of energy losses using cross-layer simulation of - large sensor network MACS setup, the error rate which effect finding sufficient node densities to have reliable multi-hop communications due to unknown node densities. The simulation results show that even though the lifetime is comparable the expected Bayesian posterior probability error bound is close or higher than Pges2P*.

Optical frequency metrology with an Rb-stabilized ring-cavity resonator-study of cavity-dispersion errors

We have developed a technique to measure the absolute frequencies of optical transitions by using an evacuated Rb-stabilized ring-cavity resonator as a transfer cavity. The absolute frequency of the Rb D-2 line (at 780 nm) used to stabilize the cavity is known and allows us to determine the absolute value of the unknown frequency. We study wavelength-dependent errors due to dispersion at the cavity mirrors by measuring the frequency of the same transition in the Cs D-2 line (at 852 nm) at three cavity lengths. The spread in the values shows that dispersion errors are below 30 kHz, corresponding to a relative precision of 10(-10). We give an explanation for reduced dispersion errors in the ring-cavity geometry by calculating errors due to the lateral shift and the phase shift at the mirrors, and show that they are roughly equal but occur with opposite signs. We have earlier shown that diffraction errors (due to Guoy phase) are negligible in the ring-cavity geometry compared to a linear cavity; the reduced dispersion error is another advantage. Our values are consistent with measurements of the same transition using the more expensive frequency-comb technique. Our simpler method is ideally suited for measuring hyperfine structure, fine structure, and isotope shifts, up to several hundreds of gigahertz.

Modeling the effect of transmission errors on TCP controlled transfers over infrastructure 802.11 wireless LANs

There have been several studies on the performance of TCP controlled transfers over an infrastructure IEEE 802.11 WLAN, assuming perfect channel conditions. In this paper, we develop an analytical model for the throughput of TCP controlled file transfers over the IEEE 802.11 DCF with different packet error probabilities for the stations, accounting for the effect of packet drops on the TCP window. Our analysis proceeds by combining two models: one is an extension of the usual TCP-over-DCF model for an infrastructure WLAN, where the throughput of a station depends on the probability that the head-of-the-line packet at the Access Point belongs to that station; the second is a model for the TCP window process for connections with different drop probabilities. Iterative calculations between these models yields the head-of-the-line probabilities, and then, performance measures such as the throughputs and packet failure probabilities can be derived. We find that, due to MAC layer retransmissions, packet losses are rare even with high channel error probabilities and the stations obtain fair throughputs even when some of them have packet error probabilities as high as 0.1 or 0.2. For some restricted settings we are also able to model tail-drop loss at the AP. Although involving many approximations, the model captures the system behavior quite accurately, as compared with simulations.

Regenerating codes for errors and erasures in distributed storage

Regenerating codes are a class of codes proposed for providing reliability of data and efficient repair of failed nodes in distributed storage systems. In this paper, we address the fundamental problem of handling errors and erasures at the nodes or links, during the data-reconstruction and node-repair operations. We provide explicit regenerating codes that are resilient to errors and erasures, and show that these codes are optimal with respect to storage and bandwidth requirements. As a special case, we also establish the capacity of a class of distributed storage systems in the presence of malicious adversaries. While our code constructions are based on previously constructed Product-Matrix codes, we also provide necessary and sufficient conditions for introducing resilience in any regenerating code.

Optimal Binary Power Control for Underlay CR With Different Interference Constraints and Impact of Channel Estimation Errors

Adapting the power of secondary users (SUs) while adhering to constraints on the interference caused to primary receivers (PRxs) is a critical issue in underlay cognitive radio (CR). This adaptation is driven by the interference and transmit power constraints imposed on the secondary transmitter (STx). Its performance also depends on the quality of channel state information (CSI) available at the STx of the links from the STx to the secondary receiver and to the PRxs. For a system in which an STx is subject to an average interference constraint or an interference outage probability constraint at each of the PRxs, we derive novel symbol error probability (SEP)-optimal, practically motivated binary transmit power control policies. As a reference, we also present the corresponding SEP-optimal continuous transmit power control policies for one PRx. We then analyze the robustness of the optimal policies when the STx knows noisy channel estimates of the links between the SU and the PRxs. Altogether, our work develops a holistic understanding of the critical role played by different transmit and interference constraints in driving power control in underlay CR and the impact of CSI on its performance.

Impact Time Guidance for Large Heading Errors Using Sliding Mode Control

In this paper, sliding mode control-based impact time guidance laws are proposed. Even for large heading angle errors and negative initial closing speeds, the desired impact time is achieved by enforcing a sliding mode on a switching surface designed by using the concepts of collision course and estimated time-to-go. Unlike existing guidance laws, the proposed guidance strategy achieves impact time successfully even when the estimated interception time is greater than the desired impact time. Simulation results are also presented.