Growth rate and vertical propagation of the initial error in baroclinic models

The present study investigates the growth of error in baroclinic waves. It is found that stable or neutral waves are particularly sensitive to errors in the initial condition. Short stable waves are mainly sensitive to phase errors and the ultra long waves to amplitude errors. Analysis simulation experiments have indicated that the amplitudes of the very long waves become usually too small in the free atmosphere, due to the sparse and very irregular distribution of upper air observations. This also applies to the four-dimensional data assimilation experiments, since the amplitudes of the very long waves are usually underpredicted. The numerical experiments reported here show that if the very long waves have these kinds of amplitude errors in the upper troposphere or lower stratosphere the error is rapidly propagated (within a day or two) to the surface and to the lower troposphere.

Representation of model error in a convective-scale ensemble prediction system

In this paper ensembles of forecasts (of up to six hours) are studied from a convection-permitting model with a representation of model error due to unresolved processes. The ensemble prediction system (EPS) used is an experimental convection-permitting version of the UK Met Office’s 24- member Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS). The method of representing model error variability, which perturbs parameters within the model’s parameterisation schemes, has been modified and we investigate the impact of applying this scheme in different ways. These are: a control ensemble where all ensemble members have the same parameter values; an ensemble where the parameters are different between members, but fixed in time; and ensembles where the parameters are updated randomly every 30 or 60 min. The choice of parameters and their ranges of variability have been determined from expert opinion and parameter sensitivity tests. A case of frontal rain over the southern UK has been chosen, which has a multi-banded rainfall structure. The consequences of including model error variability in the case studied are mixed and are summarised as follows. The multiple banding, evident in the radar, is not captured for any single member. However, the single band is positioned in some members where a secondary band is present in the radar. This is found for all ensembles studied. Adding model error variability with fixed parameters in time does increase the ensemble spread for near-surface variables like wind and temperature, but can actually decrease the spread of the rainfall. Perturbing the parameters periodically throughout the forecast does not further increase the spread and exhibits “jumpiness” in the spread at times when the parameters are perturbed. Adding model error variability gives an improvement in forecast skill after the first 2–3 h of the forecast for near-surface temperature and relative humidity. For precipitation skill scores, adding model error variability has the effect of improving the skill in the first 1–2 h of the forecast, but then of reducing the skill after that. Complementary experiments were performed where the only difference between members was the set of parameter values (i.e. no initial condition variability). The resulting spread was found to be significantly less than the spread from initial condition variability alone.

Systematic model forecast error in Rossby wave structure

Diabatic processes can alter Rossby wave structure; consequently errors arising from model processes propagate downstream. However, the chaotic spread of forecasts from initial condition uncertainty renders it difficult to trace back from root mean square forecast errors to model errors. Here diagnostics unaffected by phase errors are used, enabling investigation of systematic errors in Rossby waves in winter-season forecasts from three operational centers. Tropopause sharpness adjacent to ridges decreases with forecast lead time. It depends strongly on model resolution, even though models are examined on a common grid. Rossby wave amplitude reduces with lead time up to about five days, consistent with under-representation of diabatic modification and transport of air from the lower troposphere into upper-tropospheric ridges, and with too weak humidity gradients across the tropopause. However, amplitude also decreases when resolution is decreased. Further work is necessary to isolate the contribution from errors in the representation of diabatic processes.

A route to systematic error in forecasts of Rossby waves

Recent work has shown that both the amplitude of upper-level Rossby waves and the tropopause sharpness decrease with forecast lead time for several days in some operational weather forecast systems. In this contribution, the evolution of error growth in a case study of this forecast error type is diagnosed through analysis of operational forecasts and hindcast simulations. Potential vorticity (PV) on the 320-K isentropic surface is used to diagnose Rossby waves. The Rossby-wave forecast error in the operational ECMWF high-resolution forecast is shown to be associated with errors in the forecast of a warm conveyor belt (WCB) through trajectory analysis and an error metric for WCB outflows. The WCB forecast error is characterised by an overestimation of WCB amplitude, a location of the WCB outflow regions that is too far to the southeast, and a resulting underestimation of the magnitude of the negative PV anomaly in the outflow. Essentially the same forecast error development also occurred in all members of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System and the Met Office MOGREPS-15 suggesting that in this case model error made an important contribution to the development of forecast error in addition to initial condition error. Exploiting this forecast error robustness, a comparison was performed between the realised flow evolution, proxied by a sequence of short-range simulations, and a contemporaneous forecast. Both the proxy to the realised flow and the contemporaneous forecast a were produced with the Met Office Unified Model enhanced with tracers of diabatic processes modifying potential temperature and PV. Clear differences were found in the way potential temperature and PV are modified in the WCB between proxy and forecast. These results demonstrate that differences in potential temperature and PV modification in the WCB can be responsible for forecast errors in Rossby waves.

Eulerian superpath approach to correct sequencing error in shotgun assembly

This work describes an error correction method based on the Euler Superpath problem. Sequence data is mapped to an Euler Superpath dynamically by Merging Transformation. With restriction and guiding rules, data consistency is maintained and error paths are separated from correct data: Error edges are mapped to the correct ones and after substitution (of error edges with right paths), corresponding errors in the sequencing data are eliminated.

Narcotics Anonymous participation and changes in substance use and social support

In Victoria (a southern Australian state) in 1995, Narcotics Anonymous had a small but growing membership providing an opportunity to study the early experience of new self-help members. Ninety-one new members were interviewed and 62 (68%) were reinterviewed after 12 months. Three measures of self-help participation were examined: service role involvement, step work, and stable meeting attendance. Lower prior involvement in treatment services and greater participation in self-help predicted subsequent self-help participation. Higher levels of secondary school education predicted service role involvement and longer periods in stable meeting attendance. Higher self-help participation through the 12 months prior to follow-up was associated with lower levels of hazardous alcohol use and higher emotional support at reinterview. Multivariate regression analysis suggested stable self-help meeting attendance and step work continued to predict reductions in hazardous alcohol use and improvements in social support, after controlling for a range of alternative predictors.

Where did we go wrong? An examination of students treatment of experimental error in engineering mechanics laboratories

The ability of engineers and applied scientists to undertake experimental measurements is a fundamental requirement of the profession. However, it is not simply good enough to be able to perform experiments if we are not able to interpret the results. In this study, reports prepared by mechanical engineering students were examined to determine how students dealt with the disparity between experimental measurements and theoretical results in their Engineering Mechanics laboratories. Analysis of the reports, and discussions with students in their laboratory classes, revealed a superficial understanding or regard for experimental error. This superficial treatment of experimental error is, most likely, due to a number of factors that are discussed. Some possible strategies for addressing the issue are also examined.

Exploring the role and patterns of developmental trauma in substance using offenders

 The thesis explored the relationship between developmental trauma, substance use and offending behaviour. While a lack of sufficient power did not allow patterns and trajectories to emerge, it was demonstrated that developmental trauma was experienced disproportionally more in offender and substance using populations. Further, the study proposed the utility of the Good Lives Model in developing holistic treatment plans that encompass primary goods identified by these individuals.

Use of the Normalized Absorbance Ratio as an Internal Standardization Approach To Minimize Measurement Error in Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assays for Diagnosis of Human Papillomavirus Infection

The serological detection of antibodies against human papillomavirus (HPV) antigens is a useful tool to determine exposure to genital HPV infection and in predicting the risk of infection persistence and associated lesions. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) are commonly used for seroepidemiological studies of HPV infection but are not standardized. Intra-and interassay performance variation is difficult to control, especially in cohort studies that require the testing of specimens over extended periods. We propose the use of normalized absorbance ratios (NARs) as a standardization procedure to control for such variations and minimize measurement error. We compared NAR and ELISA optical density (OD) values for the strength of the correlation between serological results for paired visits 4 months apart and HPV-16 DNA positivity in cervical specimens from a cohort investigation of 2,048 women tested with an ELISA using HPV-16 virus-like particles. NARs were calculated by dividing the mean blank-subtracted (net) ODs by the equivalent values of a control serum pool included in the same plate in triplicate, using different dilutions. Stronger correlations were observed with NAR values than with net ODs at every dilution, with an overall reduction in nonexplained regression variability of 39%. Using logistic regression, the ranges of odds ratios of HPV-16 DNA positivity contrasting upper and lower quintiles at different dilutions and their averages were 4.73 to 5.47 for NARs and 2.78 to 3.28 for net ODs, with corresponding significant improvements in seroreactivity-risk trends across quintiles when NARs were used. The NAR standardization is a simple procedure to reduce measurement error in seroepidemiological studies of HPV infection.

Childhood trauma in substance use disorder and depression: An analysis by gender among a Brazilian clinical sample

Objective: In this study, we compared the frequency and intensity of childhood traumas in alcohol- or other drug-dependent patients, in patients with depression, and in a control group without psychiatric diagnoses. Methods: The study had a retrospective design of a clinical sample of men and women from the groups listed above. They were evaluated by the same standardized instrument: the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire.. Results: A higher frequency and intensity of emotional, physical, and sexual abuse were found in alcohol- and other drug-dependent patients than in patients with depression, who, in turn, presented significantly higher proportions than the control group. In all of the cases, the frequency was higher among women than men. Conclusion: Because of the high frequency and intensity of childhood traumas among alcohol- or other drug-dependent patients and depressed patients, the assessment of problems due to childhood traumas among these patients is essential to a better understanding of the etiology of those disorders and to their treatment. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A study on human error in the interaction with the computer systems

The term human factor is used by professionals of various fields meant for understanding the behavior of human beings at work. The human being, while developing a cooperative activity with a computer system, is subject to cause an undesirable situation in his/her task. This paper starts from the principle that human errors may be considered as a cause or factor contributing to a series of accidents and incidents in many diversified fields in which human beings interact with automated systems. We propose a simulator of performance in error with potentiality to assist the Human Computer Interaction (HCI) project manager in the construction of the critical systems. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Estimate of corrected values and the effect of correction for measurement error in dietary data obtained by the Food Frequency Questionnaire for Adolescents (AFFQ)

The scope of this study was to estimate calibrated values for dietary data obtained by the Food Frequency Questionnaire for Adolescents (FFQA) and illustrate the effect of this approach on food consumption data. The adolescents were assessed on two occasions, with an average interval of twelve months. In 2004, 393 adolescents participated, and 289 were then reassessed in 2005. Dietary data obtained by the FFQA were calibrated using the regression coefficients estimated from the average of two 24-hour recalls (24HR) of the subsample. The calibrated values were similar to the the 24HR reference measurement in the subsample. In 2004 and 2005 a significant difference was observed between the average consumption levels of the FFQA before and after calibration for all nutrients. With the use of calibrated data the proportion of schoolchildren who had fiber intake below the recommended level increased. Therefore, it is seen that calibrated data can be used to obtain adjusted associations due to reclassification of subjects within the predetermined categories.

Practical sources of error in measuring pulmonary artery occlusion pressure: a study in participants of a special intensivist training program of The Scandinavian Society of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine (SSAI)

BACKGROUND: Physiological data obtained with the pulmonary artery catheter (PAC) are susceptible to errors in measurement and interpretation. Little attention has been paid to the relevance of errors in hemodynamic measurements performed in the intensive care unit (ICU). The aim of this study was to assess the errors related to the technical aspects (zeroing and reference level) and actual measurement (curve interpretation) of the pulmonary artery occlusion pressure (PAOP). METHODS: Forty-seven participants in a special ICU training program and 22 ICU nurses were tested without pre-announcement. All participants had previously been exposed to the clinical use of the method. The first task was to set up a pressure measurement system for PAC (zeroing and reference level) and the second to measure the PAOP. RESULTS: The median difference from the reference mid-axillary zero level was - 3 cm (-8 to + 9 cm) for physicians and -1 cm (-5 to + 1 cm) for nurses. The median difference from the reference PAOP was 0 mmHg (-3 to 5 mmHg) for physicians and 1 mmHg (-1 to 15 mmHg) for nurses. When PAOP values were adjusted for the differences from the reference transducer level, the median differences from the reference PAOP values were 2 mmHg (-6 to 9 mmHg) for physicians and 2 mmHg (-6 to 16 mmHg) for nurses. CONCLUSIONS: Measurement of the PAOP is susceptible to substantial error as a result of practical mistakes. Comparison of results between ICUs or practitioners is therefore not possible.

Increase in substance P precursor mRNA in noninflamed small-bowel sections in patients with Crohn's disease

BACKGROUND: Neuropeptides, such as substance P (SP), are mediators of neurogenic inflammation and play an important role in inflammatory disorders. To further investigate the role of the SP pathway in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), we analyzed the following in normal intestinal tissue specimens and in tissue specimens from patients with Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC): neurokinin receptor-1 (NK-1R); its isoforms (NK-1R-L and NK-1R-S); its ligand SP, encoded by preprotachykinin-A (PPT-A); and the SP-degradation enzyme, neutral endopeptidase (NEP). METHODS: Real-time quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction was used to simultaneously determine the expression of NK-1R-L, NK-1R-S, and PPT-A. Protein levels of NK-1R and NEP were determined by immunoblot analysis. RESULTS: In noninflamed small-bowel tissue samples of CD patients, PPT-A mRNA expression was significantly increased, whereas there was no difference between inflamed or noninflamed UC and normal intestinal tissue samples. Examining subgroups of diverse intestinal segments from CD and UC samples with various levels of inflammation revealed no differences in NK-1R-L and NK-1R-S mRNA expression, whereas there was a tendency toward overall lower NK-1R-S mRNA copy numbers. Immunoblot analysis showed upregulation of NK-1R protein levels in cases of IBD, with more pronounced enhancement in cases of CD than in UC. For NEP, there were no differences in protein levels in normal, CD, and UC intestinal tissues. COMMENTS: These observations suggest a contribution of SP and its receptor, NK-1R, in the local inflammatory reaction in IBD and particularly in ileal CD. Moreover, significant upregulation of PPT-A mRNA in the noninflamed ileum of these patients suggests an influence of inflamed intestines on their healthy counterparts.