Quantifying historical, capital mobility in Canada : an error correction approach.

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Forecasting the spot prices of various coffee types using linear and non-linear error correction models

Este documento estima modelos lineales y no-lineales de corrección de errores para los precios spot de cuatro tipos de café. En concordancia con las leyes económicas, se encuentra evidencia que cuando los precios están por encima de su nivel de equilibrio, retornan a éste mas lentamente que cuando están por debajo. Esto puede reflejar el hecho que, en el corto plazo, para los países productores de café es mas fácil restringir la oferta para incrementar precios, que incrementarla para reducirlos. Además, se encuentra evidencia que el ajuste es más rápido cuando las desviaciones del equilibrio son mayores. Los pronósticos que se obtienen a partir de los modelos de corrección de errores no lineales y asimétricos considerados en el trabajo, ofrecen una leve mejoría cuando se comparan con los pronósticos que resultan de un modelo de paseo aleatorio.

Implementation and application of basis set superposition error-correction schemes to the theoretical modeling of weak intermolecular interactions

This thesis deals with the so-called Basis Set Superposition Error (BSSE) from both a methodological and a practical point of view. The purpose of the present thesis is twofold: (a) to contribute step ahead in the correct characterization of weakly bound complexes and, (b) to shed light the understanding of the actual implications of the basis set extension effects in the ab intio calculations and contribute to the BSSE debate. The existing BSSE-correction procedures are deeply analyzed, compared, validated and, if necessary, improved. A new interpretation of the counterpoise (CP) method is used in order to define counterpoise-corrected descriptions of the molecular complexes. This novel point of view allows for a study of the BSSE-effects not only in the interaction energy but also on the potential energy surface and, in general, in any property derived from the molecular energy and its derivatives A program has been developed for the calculation of CP-corrected geometry optimizations and vibrational frequencies, also using several counterpoise schemes for the case of molecular clusters. The method has also been implemented in Gaussian98 revA10 package. The Chemical Hamiltonian Approach (CHA) methodology has been also implemented at the RHF and UHF levels of theory for an arbitrary number interacting systems using an algorithm based on block-diagonal matrices. Along with the methodological development, the effects of the BSSE on the properties of molecular complexes have been discussed in detail. The CP and CHA methodologies are used for the determination of BSSE-corrected molecular complexes properties related to the Potential Energy Surfaces and molecular wavefunction, respectively. First, the behaviour of both BSSE-correction schemes are systematically compared at different levels of theory and basis sets for a number of hydrogen-bonded complexes. The Complete Basis Set (CBS) limit of both uncorrected and CP-corrected molecular properties like stabilization energies and intermolecular distances has also been determined, showing the capital importance of the BSSE correction. Several controversial topics of the BSSE correction are addressed as well. The application of the counterpoise method is applied to internal rotational barriers. The importance of the nuclear relaxation term is also pointed out. The viability of the CP method for dealing with charged complexes and the BSSE effects on the double-well PES blue-shifted hydrogen bonds is also studied in detail. In the case of the molecular clusters the effect of high-order BSSE effects introduced with the hierarchical counterpoise scheme is also determined. The effect of the BSSE on the electron density-related properties is also addressed. The first-order electron density obtained with the CHA/F and CHA/DFT methodologies was used to assess, both graphically and numerically, the redistribution of the charge density upon BSSE-correction. Several tools like the Atoms in Molecules topologycal analysis, density difference maps, Quantum Molecular Similarity, and Chemical Energy Component Analysis were used to deeply analyze, for the first time, the BSSE effects on the electron density of several hydrogen bonded complexes of increasing size. The indirect effect of the BSSE on intermolecular perturbation theory results is also pointed out It is shown that for a BSSE-free SAPT study of hydrogen fluoride clusters, the use of a counterpoise-corrected PES is essential in order to determine the proper molecular geometry to perform the SAPT analysis.

Bayesian estimation and selection of nonlinear vector error correction models: The case of the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil

Nonlinear adjustment toward long-run price equilibrium relationships in the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil is examined. We develop generalized bivariate error correction models that allow for cointegration between sugar, ethanol, and oil prices, where dynamic adjustments are potentially nonlinear functions of the disequilibrium errors. A range of models are estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms and compared using Bayesian model selection methods. The results suggest that the long-run drivers of Brazilian sugar prices are oil prices and that there are nonlinearities in the adjustment processes of sugar and ethanol prices to oil price but linear adjustment between ethanol and sugar prices.

The inflation hedging characteristics of US and UK investments: a multi-factor error correction approach

Historic analysis of the inflation hedging properties of stocks produced anomalous results, with equities often appearing to offer a perverse hedge against inflation. This has been attributed to the impact of real and monetary shocks to the economy, which influence both inflation and asset returns. It has been argued that real estate should provide a better hedge: however, empirical results have been mixed. This paper explores the relationship between commercial real estate returns (from both private and public markets) and economic, fiscal and monetary factors and inflation for US and UK markets. Comparative analysis of general equity and small capitalisation stock returns in both markets is carried out. Inflation is subdivided into expected and unexpected components using different estimation techniques. The analyses are undertaken using long-run error correction techniques. In the long-run, once real and monetary variables are included, asset returns are positively linked to anticipated inflation but not to inflation shocks. Adjustment processes are, however, gradual and not within period. Real estate returns, particularly direct market returns, exhibit characteristics that differ from equities.

Intermittently-visual tracking experiments reveal the roles of error-correction and predictive mechanisms in the human visual-motor control system

Prediction mechanism is necessary for human visual motion to compensate a delay of sensory-motor system. In a previous study, “proactive control” was discussed as one example of predictive function of human beings, in which motion of hands preceded the virtual moving target in visual tracking experiments. To study the roles of the positional-error correction mechanism and the prediction mechanism, we carried out an intermittently-visual tracking experiment where a circular orbit is segmented into the target-visible regions and the target-invisible regions. Main results found in this research were following. A rhythmic component appeared in the tracer velocity when the target velocity was relatively high. The period of the rhythm in the brain obtained from environmental stimuli is shortened more than 10%. The shortening of the period of rhythm in the brain accelerates the hand motion as soon as the visual information is cut-off, and causes the precedence of hand motion to the target motion. Although the precedence of the hand in the blind region is reset by the environmental information when the target enters the visible region, the hand motion precedes the target in average when the predictive mechanism dominates the error-corrective mechanism.

Transition from an anti-phase error-correction-mode to a synchronization mode in the mutual hand tracking

Proactive motion in hand tracking and in finger bending, in which the body motion occurs prior to the reference signal, was reported by the preceding researchers when the target signals were shown to the subjects at relatively high speed or high frequencies. These phenomena indicate that the human sensory-motor system tends to choose an anticipatory mode rather than a reactive mode, when the target motion is relatively fast. The present research was undertaken to study what kind of mode appears in the sensory-motor system when two persons were asked to track the hand position of the partner with each other at various mean tracking frequency. The experimental results showed a transition from a mutual error-correction mode to a synchronization mode occurred in the same region of the tracking frequency with that of the transition from a reactive error-correction mode to a proactive anticipatory mode in the mechanical target tracking experiments. Present research indicated that synchronization of body motion occurred only when both of the pair subjects operated in a proactive anticipatory mode. We also presented mathematical models to explain the behavior of the error-correction mode and the synchronization mode.

A multiple error-correction model of housing supply

This paper considers supply dynamics in the context of the Irish residential market. The analysis, in a multiple error-correction framework, reveals that although developers did respond to disequilibrium in supply, the rate of adjustment was relatively slow. In contrast, however, disequilibrium in demand did not impact upon supply, suggesting that inelastic supply conditions could explain the prolonged nature of the boom in the Irish market. Increased elasticity in the later stages of the boom may have been a contributory factor in the extent of the house price falls observed in recent years.

Does mixed frequency vector error correction model add relevant information to exchange misalignment calculus? Evidence for United States

Real exchange rate is an important macroeconomic price in the economy and a ects economic activity, interest rates, domestic prices, trade and investiments ows among other variables. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies to evaluate whether a real e ective exchange is overvalued or undervalued. There is a vast body of literature on the determinants of long-term real exchange rates and on empirical strategies to implement the equilibrium norms obtained from theoretical models. This study seeks to contribute to this literature by showing that it is possible to calculate the misalignment from a mixed ointegrated vector error correction framework. An empirical exercise using United States' real exchange rate data is performed. The results suggest that the model with mixed frequency data is preferred to the models with same frequency variables

A method for improving the code rate and error correction capability of a cyclic code

Currently, there has been an increasing demand for operational and trustworthy digital data transmission and storage systems. This demand has been augmented by the appearance of large-scale, high-speed data networks for the exchange, processing and storage of digital information in the different spheres. In this paper, we explore a way to achieve this goal. For given positive integers n,r, we establish that corresponding to a binary cyclic code C0[n,n-r], there is a binary cyclic code C[(n+1)3k-1,(n+1)3k-1-3kr], where k is a nonnegative integer, which plays a role in enhancing code rate and error correction capability. In the given scheme, the new code C is in fact responsible to carry data transmitted by C0. Consequently, a codeword of the code C0 can be encoded by the generator matrix of C and therefore this arrangement for transferring data offers a safe and swift mode. © 2013 SBMAC - Sociedade Brasileira de Matemática Aplicada e Computacional.

Convergence Property of the Measurement Gross Error Correction in Power System State Estimation, Using Geometrical Background

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Spectrum Distribution in Cognitive Radio: Error Correcting Codes Perspective

Cognitive radio is a growing zone in wireless communication which offers an opening in complete utilization of incompetently used frequency spectrum: deprived of crafting interference for the primary (authorized) user, the secondary user is indorsed to use the frequency band. Though, scheming a model with the least interference produced by the secondary user for primary user is a perplexing job. In this study we proposed a transmission model based on error correcting codes dealing with a countable number of pairs of primary and secondary users. However, we obtain an effective utilization of spectrum by the transmission of the pairs of primary and secondary users' data through the linear codes with different given lengths. Due to the techniques of error correcting codes we developed a number of schemes regarding an appropriate bandwidth distribution in cognitive radio.