Numerical prediction of three-dimensional time-dependent viscoelastic extrudate swell using differential and algebraic models

This study investigates the numerical simulation of three-dimensional time-dependent viscoelastic free surface flows using the Upper-Convected Maxwell (UCM) constitutive equation and an algebraic explicit model. This investigation was carried out to develop a simplified approach that can be applied to the extrudate swell problem. The relevant physics of this flow phenomenon is discussed in the paper and an algebraic model to predict the extrudate swell problem is presented. It is based on an explicit algebraic representation of the non-Newtonian extra-stress through a kinematic tensor formed with the scaled dyadic product of the velocity field. The elasticity of the fluid is governed by a single transport equation for a scalar quantity which has dimension of strain rate. Mass and momentum conservations, and the constitutive equation (UCM and algebraic model) were solved by a three-dimensional time-dependent finite difference method. The free surface of the fluid was modeled using a marker-and-cell approach. The algebraic model was validated by comparing the numerical predictions with analytic solutions for pipe flow. In comparison with the classical UCM model, one advantage of this approach is that computational workload is substantially reduced: the UCM model employs six differential equations while the algebraic model uses only one. The results showed stable flows with very large extrudate growths beyond those usually obtained with standard differential viscoelastic models. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improved Prediction of Hydrocarbon Flash Points from Boiling Point Data

Flash points (T(FP)) of hydrocarbons are calculated from their flash point numbers, N(FP), with the relationship T(FP) (K) = 23.369N(FP)(2/3) + 20.010N(FP)(1/3) + 31.901 In turn, the N(FP) values can be predicted from experimental boiling point numbers (Y(BP)) and molecular structure with the equation N(FP) = 0.987 Y(BP) + 0.176D + 0.687T + 0.712B - 0.176 where D is the number of olefinic double bonds in the structure, T is the number of triple bonds, and B is the number of aromatic rings. For a data set consisting of 300 diverse hydrocarbons, the average absolute deviation between the literature and predicted flash points was 2.9 K.

The utility of a workplace injury instrument in prediction of workplace injury

Workplace injuries are common and destructive to persons, organisations, and society. Various instruments presently exist that are designed to assess the factors underlying workplace injury. The study reports on the construct and predictive validity of a 46-item instrument, the safety perception survey (SPS), currently used to assess safety climate in industrial organisations throughout Australia. Initially, factor analysis was conducted on the data from a sample of 1238 employees from nine organisations, which indicated a one-factor solution, was the best fit. A structural equation model (SEM) linking injury rates to the safety climate measure for 16 sub-groups of six industrial organisations indicated that the measure contributed just 23% of the variance in injury rates. Interestingly, the results indicated that the number of employees was a better and more significant predictor of injury (R² = 0.48). It is proposed that the SPS as is would need to be modified significantly from its current form to produce improvements in validity, as in its current form the survey is no more predictive of injury than organisational size. Future research into safety climate measures should incorporate predictive validity analysis on injury rates, as for many organisations; this is a performance outcome measure.

Framingham risk prediction equations for incidence of cardiovascular disease using detailed measures for smoking

Current prediction models for risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence incorporate smoking as a dichotomous yes/no measure. However, the risk of CVD associated with smoking also varies with the intensity and duration of smoking and there is a strong association between time since quitting and the risk of disease onset. This study aims to develop improved risk prediction equations for CVD incidence incorporating intensity and duration of smoking and time since quitting. The risk of developing a first CVD event was evaluated using a Cox’s model for participants in the Framingham offspring cohort who attended the fourth examination (1988–92) between the ages of 30 and 74 years and were free of CVD (n=3751). The full models based on the smoking variables and other risk factors, and reduced models based on the smoking variables and non-laboratory risk factors demonstrated good discrimination, calibration and global fit. The incorporation of both time since quitting among past smokers and pack-years among current smokers resulted in better predictive performance as compared to a dichotomous current/non-smoker measure and a current/quitter/never smoker measure. Compared to never smokers, the risk of CVD incidence increased with pack-years. Risk among those quitting more than five years prior to the baseline exam and within five years prior to the baseline exam were similar and twice as high as that of never smokers. A CVD risk equation incorporating the effects of pack-years and time since quitting provides an improved tool to quantify risk and guide preventive care.

Effect of mean stress on multiaxial ratcheting life: a simplified life prediction model based on average equivalent stress amplitude

This article proposes a model to predict uniaxial and multiaxial ratcheting life by addressing the three primary parameters that influence failure life: fatigue damage, ratcheting damage and the multiaxial loading path. These three factors are addressed in the present model by (a) the stress amplitude for fatigue damage, (b) mean stress-dependent Goodman equation for ratcheting damage and (c) an inherent weight factor based on average equivalent stress to account for the multiaxial loading. The proposed model requires only two material constants which can be easily determined from uniaxial symmetric stress-controlled fatigue tests. Experimental ratcheting life data collected from the literature for 1025 and 42CrMo steel under multiaxial proportional and nonproportional constant amplitude loading ratcheting with triangular sinusoidal and trapezoidal waveform (i.e. linear, rhombic, circular, elliptical and square stress paths) have shown good agreement with the proposed model.

Fine root isotropy in Eucalyptus grandis plantations. Towards the prediction of root length densities from root counts on trench walls

The objectives of the study were to assess changes in fine root anisotropy and specific root lengths throughout the development of Eucalyptus grandis ( W. Hill ex Maiden) plantations and to establish a predictive model of root length density (RLD) from root intercept counts on trench walls. Fine root densities (<1 mm in diameter) were studied in 6-, 12-, 22-, 28-, 54-, 68- and 72-month-old E. grandis plantations established on deep Ferralsols in southern Brazil. Fine root intercepts were counted on 3 faces of 90-198 soil cubes (1 dm(3) in volume) in each stand and fine root lengths (L) were measured inside 576 soil cubes, sampled between the depths of 10 cm and 290 cm. The number of fine root intercepts was counted on one vertical face perpendicular to the planting row (N(t)), one vertical face parallel to the planting row (N(l)) and one horizontal face (N(h)), for each soil cube sampled. An overall isotropy of fine roots was shown by paired Student's t-tests between the numbers of fine roots intersecting each face of soil cubes at most stand ages and soil depths. Specific root lengths decreased with stand age in the upper soil layers and tended to increase in deep soil layers at the end of the rotation. A linear regression established between N(t) and L for all the soil cubes sampled accounted for 36% of the variability of L. Such a regression computed for mean Nt and L values at each sampling depth and stand age explained only 55% of the variability, as a result of large differences in the relationship between L and Nt depending on stand productivity. The equation RLD=1.89*LAI*N(t), where LAI was the stand leaf area index (m(2) m(-2)) and Nt was expressed as the number of root intercepts per cm(2), made it possible to predict accurately (R(2)=0.84) and without bias the mean RLDs (cm cm(-3)) per depth in each stand, for the whole data set of 576 soil cubes sampled between 2 years of age and the end of the rotation.

Comparison of space analysis performed on plaster vs. digital dental casts applying Tanaka and Johnston's equation

OBJETIVO: comparar medidas de tamanhos dentários, suas reprodutibilidades e a aplicação da equação de regressão de Tanaka e Johnston na predição do tamanho dos caninos e pré-molares em modelos de gesso e digital. MÉTODOS: trinta modelos de gesso foram escaneados para obtenção dos modelos digitais. As medidas do comprimento mesiodistal dos dentes foram obtidas com paquímetro digital nos modelos de gesso e nos modelos digitais utilizando o software O3d (Widialabs). A somatória do tamanho dos incisivos inferiores foi utilizada para obter os valores de predição do tamanho dos pré-molares e caninos utilizando equação de regressão, e esses valores foram comparados ao tamanho real dos dentes. Os dados foram analisados estatisticamente, aplicando-se aos resultados o teste de correlação de Pearson, a fórmula de Dahlberg, o teste t pareado e a análise de variância (p < 0,05). RESULTADOS: excelente concordância intraexaminador foi observada nas medidas realizadas em ambos os modelos. O erro aleatório não esteve presente nas medidas obtidas com paquímetro, e o erro sistemático foi mais frequente no modelo digital. A previsão de espaço obtida pela aplicação da equação de regressão foi maior que a somatória dos pré-molares e caninos presentes nos modelos de gesso e nos modelos digitais. CONCLUSÃO: apesar da boa reprodutibilidade das medidas realizadas em ambos os modelos, a maioria das medidas dos modelos digitais foram superiores às do modelos de gesso. O espaço previsto foi superestimado em ambos os modelos e significativamente maior nos modelos digitais.

Modeling approach based on experimental results for prediction of measurement errors in energy meters

This paper presents a general modeling approach to investigate and to predict measurement errors in active energy meters both induction and electronic types. The measurement error modeling is based on Generalized Additive Model (GAM), Ridge Regression method and experimental results of meter provided by a measurement system. The measurement system provides a database of 26 pairs of test waveforms captured in a real electrical distribution system, with different load characteristics (industrial, commercial, agricultural, and residential), covering different harmonic distortions, and balanced and unbalanced voltage conditions. In order to illustrate the proposed approach, the measurement error models are discussed and several results, which are derived from experimental tests, are presented in the form of three-dimensional graphs, and generalized as error equations. © 2009 IEEE.

Spin stabilized satellite's attitude analytical prediction

An analytical approach for spin stabilized attitude propagation is presented, considering the coupled effect of the aerodynamic torque and the gravity gradient torque. A spherical coordination system fixed in the satellite is used to locate the satellite spin axis in relation to the terrestrial equatorial system. The spin axis direction is specified by its right ascension and the declination angles and the equation of motion are described by these two angles and the magnitude of the spin velocity. An analytical averaging method is applied to obtain the mean torques over an orbital period. To compute the average components of both aerodynamic torque and the gravity gradient torque in the satellite body frame reference system, an average time in the fast varying orbit element, the mean anomaly, is utilized. Afterwards, the inclusion of such torques on the rotational motion differential equations of spin stabilized satellites yields conditions to derive an analytical solution. The pointing deviation evolution, that is, the deviation between the actual spin axis and the computed spin axis, is also availed. In order to validate the analytical approach, the theory developed has been applied for spin stabilized Brazilian satellite SCD1, which are quite appropriated for verification and comparison of the data generated and processed by the Satellite Control Center of the Brazil National Research Institute (INPE). Numerical simulations performed with data of Brazilian Satellite SCD1 show the period that the analytical solution can be used to the attitude propagation, within the dispersion range of the attitude determination system performance of Satellite Control Center of the Brazilian Research Institute.

Prediction of clinical toxicity in localized cervical carcinoma by radio-induced apoptosis study in peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBLs)

[EN] Background: Cervical cancer is treated mainly by surgery and radiotherapy. Toxicity due to radiation is a limiting factor for treatment success. Determination of lymphocyte radiosensitivity by radio-induced apoptosis arises as a possible method for predictive test development. The aim of this study was to analyze radio-induced apoptosis of peripheral blood lymphocytes. Methods: Ninety four consecutive patients suffering from cervical carcinoma, diagnosed and treated in our institution, and four healthy controls were included in the study. Toxicity was evaluated using the Lent-Soma scale. Peripheral blood lymphocytes were isolated and irradiated at 0, 1, 2 and 8 Gy during 24, 48 and 72 hours. Apoptosis was measured by flow cytometry using annexin V/propidium iodide to determine early and late apoptosis. Lymphocytes were marked with CD45 APC-conjugated monoclonal antibody. Results: Radiation-induced apoptosis (RIA) increased with radiation dose and time of incubation. Data strongly fitted to a semi logarithmic model as follows: RIA = βln(Gy) + α. This mathematical model was defined by two constants: α, is the origin of the curve in the Y axis and determines the percentage of spontaneous cell death and β, is the slope of the curve and determines the percentage of cell death induced at a determined radiation dose (β = ΔRIA/Δln(Gy)). Higher β values (increased rate of RIA at given radiation doses) were observed in patients with low sexual toxicity (Exp(B) = 0.83, C.I. 95% (0.73-0.95), p = 0.007; Exp(B) = 0.88, C.I. 95% (0.82-0.94), p = 0.001; Exp(B) = 0.93, C.I. 95% (0.88-0.99), p = 0.026 for 24, 48 and 72 hours respectively). This relation was also found with rectal (Exp(B) = 0.89, C.I. 95% (0.81-0.98), p = 0.026; Exp(B) = 0.95, C.I. 95% (0.91-0.98), p = 0.013 for 48 and 72 hours respectively) and urinary (Exp(B) = 0.83, C.I. 95% (0.71-0.97), p = 0.021 for 24 hours) toxicity. Conclusion: Radiation induced apoptosis at different time points and radiation doses fitted to a semi logarithmic model defined by a mathematical equation that gives an individual value of radiosensitivity and could predict late toxicity due to radiotherapy. Other prospective studies with higher number of patients are needed to validate these results.

Correlation and prediction of mixing thermodynamic properties of ester-containing systems Ester+alkane and ester+ester binary systems and the ternary dodecane+ethyl pentonoate+ethyl ethanoate

[EN]Excess thermodynamic properties VE m and HE m, have been measured for the ternary mixture dodecane + ethyl pentanoate + ethyl ethanoate and for the corresponding binaries dodecane + ethyl pentanoate, dodecane + ethyl ethanoate, ethyl pentanoate + ethyl ethanoate at 298.15 K. All mixtures show endothermic and expansive effects. Experimental results are correlated with a suitable equation whose final form for the excess ternary quantity ME contains the particular contributions of the three binaries (i–j) and a last term corresponding to the ternary, all of them obtained considering fourth-order interactions.

Microemulsion: prediction of the phase diagram with a modified Helfrich free energy

Microemulsions are thermodynamically stable, macroscopically homogeneous but microscopically heterogeneous, mixtures of water and oil stabilised by surfactant molecules. They have unique properties like ultralow interfacial tension, large interfacial area and the ability to solubilise other immiscible liquids. Depending on the temperature and concentration, non-ionic surfactants self assemble to micelles, flat lamellar, hexagonal and sponge like bicontinuous morphologies. Microemulsions have three different macroscopic phases (a) 1phase- microemulsion (isotropic), (b) 2phase-microemulsion coexisting with either expelled water or oil and (c) 3phase- microemulsion coexisting with expelled water and oil.rnrnOne of the most important fundamental questions in this field is the relation between the properties of the surfactant monolayer at water-oil interface and those of microemulsion. This monolayer forms an extended interface whose local curvature determines the structure of the microemulsion. The main part of my thesis deals with the quantitative measurements of the temperature induced phase transitions of water-oil-nonionic microemulsions and their interpretation using the temperature dependent spontaneous curvature [c0(T)] of the surfactant monolayer. In a 1phase- region, conservation of the components determines the droplet (domain) size (R) whereas in 2phase-region, it is determined by the temperature dependence of c0(T). The Helfrich bending free energy density includes the dependence of the droplet size on c0(T) as

Sonic log prediction in carbonates

This work is conducted to study the complications associated with the sonic log prediction in carbonate logs and to investigate the possible solutions to accurately predict the sonic logs in Traverse Limestone. Well logs from fifty different wells were analyzed to define the mineralogy of the Traverse Limestone by using conventional 4-mineral and 3-mineral identification approaches. We modified the conventional 3-mineral identification approach (that completely neglects the gamma ray response) to correct the shale effects on the basis of gamma ray log before employing the 3-mineral identification. This modification helped to get the meaningful insight of the data when a plot was made between DGA (dry grain density) and UMA (Photoelectric Volumetric Cross-section) with the characteristic ternary diagram of the quartz, calcite and dolomite. The results were then compared with the 4-mineral identification approach. Contour maps of the average mineral fractions present in the Traverse Limestone were prepared to see the basin wide mineralogy of Traverse Limestone. In the second part, sonic response of Traverse Limestone was predicted in fifty randomly distributed wells. We used the modified time average equation that accounts for the shale effects on the basis of gamma ray log, and used it to predict the sonic behavior from density porosity and average porosity. To account for the secondary porosity of dolomite, we subtracted the dolomitic fraction of clean porosity from the total porosity. The pseudo-sonic logs were then compared with the measured sonic logs on the root mean square (RMS) basis. Addition of dolomite correction in modified time average equation improved the results of sonic prediction from neutron porosity and average porosity. The results demonstrated that sonic logs could be predicted in carbonate rocks with a root mean square error of about 4μsec/ft. We also attempted the use of individual mineral components for sonic log prediction but the ambiguities in mineral fractions and in the sonic properties of the minerals limited the accuracy of the results.

Development and validation of energy expenditure prediction models based on GT3X accelerometer data in 5- to 9-year-old children

Background: Accelerometry has been established as an objective method that can be used to assess physical activity behavior in large groups. The purpose of the current study was to provide a validated equation to translate accelerometer counts of the triaxial GT3X into energy expenditure in young children. Methods: Thirty-two children aged 5–9 years performed locomotor and play activities that are typical for their age group. Children wore a GT3X accelerometer and their energy expenditure was measured with indirect calorimetry. Twenty-one children were randomly selected to serve as development group. A cubic 2-regression model involving separate equations for locomotor and play activities was developed on the basis of model fit. It was then validated using data of the remaining children and compared with a linear 2-regression model and a linear 1-regression model. Results: All 3 regression models produced strong correlations between predicted and measured MET values. Agreement was acceptable for the cubic model and good for both linear regression approaches. Conclusions: The current linear 1-regression model provides valid estimates of energy expenditure for ActiGraph GT3X data for 5- to 9-year-old children and shows equal or better predictive validity than a cubic or a linear 2-regression model.

Temperature Prediction Model for Bone Drilling Based on Density Distribution and In Vivo Experiments for Minimally Invasive Robotic Cochlear Implantation

Surgical robots have been proposed ex vivo to drill precise holes in the temporal bone for minimally invasive cochlear implantation. The main risk of the procedure is damage of the facial nerve due to mechanical interaction or due to temperature elevation during the drilling process. To evaluate the thermal risk of the drilling process, a simplified model is proposed which aims to enable an assessment of risk posed to the facial nerve for a given set of constant process parameters for different mastoid bone densities. The model uses the bone density distribution along the drilling trajectory in the mastoid bone to calculate a time dependent heat production function at the tip of the drill bit. Using a time dependent moving point source Green's function, the heat equation can be solved at a certain point in space so that the resulting temperatures can be calculated over time. The model was calibrated and initially verified with in vivo temperature data. The data was collected in minimally invasive robotic drilling of 12 holes in four different sheep. The sheep were anesthetized and the temperature elevations were measured with a thermocouple which was inserted in a previously drilled hole next to the planned drilling trajectory. Bone density distributions were extracted from pre-operative CT data by averaging Hounsfield values over the drill bit diameter. Post-operative [Formula: see text]CT data was used to verify the drilling accuracy of the trajectories. The comparison of measured and calculated temperatures shows a very good match for both heating and cooling phases. The average prediction error of the maximum temperature was less than 0.7 °C and the average root mean square error was approximately 0.5 °C. To analyze potential thermal damage, the model was used to calculate temperature profiles and cumulative equivalent minutes at 43 °C at a minimal distance to the facial nerve. For the selected drilling parameters, temperature elevation profiles and cumulative equivalent minutes suggest that thermal elevation of this minimally invasive cochlear implantation surgery may pose a risk to the facial nerve, especially in sclerotic or high density mastoid bones. Optimized drilling parameters need to be evaluated and the model could be used for future risk evaluation.