874 resultados para Epidemic


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The K-Means algorithm for cluster analysis is one of the most influential and popular data mining methods. Its straightforward parallel formulation is well suited for distributed memory systems with reliable interconnection networks. However, in large-scale geographically distributed systems the straightforward parallel algorithm can be rendered useless by a single communication failure or high latency in communication paths. This work proposes a fully decentralised algorithm (Epidemic K-Means) which does not require global communication and is intrinsically fault tolerant. The proposed distributed K-Means algorithm provides a clustering solution which can approximate the solution of an ideal centralised algorithm over the aggregated data as closely as desired. A comparative performance analysis is carried out against the state of the art distributed K-Means algorithms based on sampling methods. The experimental analysis confirms that the proposed algorithm is a practical and accurate distributed K-Means implementation for networked systems of very large and extreme scale.

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Antimicrobial drug resistance is a global challenge for the 21st century with the emergence of resistant bacterial strains worldwide. Transferable resistance to beta-lactam antimicrobial drugs, mediated by production of extended-spectrum beta-lactamases (ESBLs), is of particular concern. In 2004, an ESBL-carrying IncK plasmid (pCT) was isolated from cattle in the United Kingdom. The sequence was a 93,629-bp plasmid encoding a single antimicrobial drug resistance gene, bla(CTX-M-14). From this information, PCRs identifying novel features of pCT were designed and applied to isolates from several countries, showing that the plasmid has disseminated worldwide in bacteria from humans and animals. Complete DNA sequences can be used as a platform to develop rapid epidemiologic tools to identify and trace the spread of plasmids in clinically relevant pathogens, thus facilitating a better understanding of their distribution and ability to transfer between bacteria of humans and animals.

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An expert opinion workshop was held on the subject of the cause, identification and control of new and emerging Salmonella strains. Experts were invited to complete questionnaires, contribute to structured discussions and take part in cluster group tasks. Outputs of the workshop included that, with current surveillance methods, it might take up to 2.5 years from the first introduction of a new strain into the UK livestock population to its identification as a human epidemic strain. In order to reduce the time to detection and provide more effective control options, several recommendations were made, including better back-tracing of human cases to their source, which would require more effective communication between those responsible for human and veterinary surveillance.

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Multidrug-resistant (MDR-AmpC) Salmonella enterica serovar Newport has caused serious disease in animals and humans in North America, whereas in the UK S. enterica serovar Newport is not associated with severe disease and usually sensitive to antibiotics; MDR S. Newport (not AmpC) strains have only been isolated from poultry. We found that UK poultry strains belonged to MLST type ST166 and were distinct from cattle isolates for being able to utilize D-tagotose and when compared by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), comparative genomic hybridization (CGH) and diversity arrays technology (DArT). Cattle strains belonged to the ST45 complex differing from ST166 at all seven loci. PFGE showed that 19 out of 27 cattle isolates were more than 85% similar to each other and some UK and US strains were indistinguishable. Both CGH and DArT identified genes (including phage-related ones) that were uniquely present in the US isolates and two such genes identified by DArT showed sequence similarities with the pertussis-like (artAB) toxin. This work demonstrates that MDR-AmpC S. Newport from the USA are genetically closely related to pan-susceptible strains from the UK, but contained three extra phage regions and a MDR plasmid.

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Epidemic protocols are a bio-inspired communication and computation paradigm for large and extreme-scale networked systems. This work investigates the expansion property of the network overlay topologies induced by epidemic protocols. An expansion quality index for overlay topologies is proposed and adopted for the design of epidemic membership protocols. A novel protocol is proposed, which explicitly aims at improving the expansion quality of the overlay topologies. The proposed protocol is tested with a global aggregation task and compared to other membership protocols. The analysis by means of simulations indicates that the expansion quality directly relates to the speed of dissemination and convergence of epidemic protocols and can be effectively used to design better protocols.

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This article investigates the impact of exposure to a serious, unusual, and unforeseen malaria epidemic in northeast Brazil in 1938–40 on subsequent human capital attainment and income. Arguing the event was exogenous, the article exploits cohort and regional heterogeneity in exposure to identify effects. Results are consistent with differential mortality rates according to gender and socioeconomic status, such that heterogeneous selection and scarring effects are observed. Analyzing by gender alone, positive (selection) effects are found for men, and mixed (positive and negative) effects for women. Allowing for heterogeneity by race, selection effects persist for men. In contrast, positive (selection) effects are observed for nonwhite women, and negative (scarring) effects for white women. Results contribute to evidence suggesting that exposure to negative environmental shocks affects human capital attainment, while also suggesting it heterogeneously affects cohort composition.

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Epidemic protocols are a bio-inspired communication and computation paradigm for extreme-scale network system based on randomized communication. The protocols rely on a membership service to build decentralized and random overlay topologies. In a weakly connected overlay topology, a naive mechanism of membership protocols can break the connectivity, thus impairing the accuracy of the application. This work investigates the factors in membership protocols that cause the loss of global connectivity and introduces the first topology connectivity recovery mechanism. The mechanism is integrated into the Expander Membership Protocol, which is then evaluated against other membership protocols. The analysis shows that the proposed connectivity recovery mechanism is effective in preserving topology connectivity and also helps to improve the application performance in terms of convergence speed.

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Nucleoticle sequence analyses of the SH gene of 18 mumps virus isolates collected in the 2006-2007 parotitis epidemic in the state of Sao Paulo identified a new genotype, designated genotype M. This new designation fulfills all the parameters required to define a new mumps virus genotype. The parameters were established by an expert panel in collaboration with the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2005. This information will enhance the mumps virus surveillance program both at the national and global levels.

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Human herpesvirus 8 (HHV-8) infection is common in sub-Saharan Africa, but its prevalence in Mozambique is unknown. The seroprevalence of HHV-8 in a cohort of individuals seen at public health centers in Northern (n = 208), Central (n = 226), or Southern (n = 318) Mozambique was examined. All individuals were interviewed to obtain socioeconomic, demographic and clinical data and were tested for serum anti-HHV-8 antibodies using an immunofluorescence assay. The overall frequency of HHV-8 antibodies was 21.4% and, in spite of the diversity of epidemiological characteristics of the tested individuals, did not differ significantly among regions: 18.7%, 24.3% and 21.4% in the North, Center, and South, respectively (chi(2), 2.37; P = 0.305). The variables that were associated significantly with the presence of HHV-8 antibodies were gender, age, level of education, number of siblings and HIV serostatus, but these differed across the regions. In the North, although tested individuals lived under poor socioeconomic conditions, no association between HHV-8 infection and household variables was detected, with the exception of the number of siblings (P = 0.042). In the Central region, HHV-8 infection was associated with gender (P = 0.010), the number of household members (P = 0.031), and the place of attendance (P = 0.021). In the South, HHV-8 infection was associated with the number of siblings (P = 0.023) and HIV status (P = 0.002). The overall prevalence of HHV-8 seropositivity increased with age. These results demonstrate that Mozambique is another country in Africa with endemic HHV-8 infection, and, because of the AIDS epidemic, continued access to antiretroviral treatment is necessary to avert an outbreak of AIDS-Kaposi`s sarcoma. J. Med. Virol. 82:1216-1223, 2010. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

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We study a stochastic process describing the onset of spreading dynamics of an epidemic in a population composed of individuals of three classes: susceptible (S), infected (I), and recovered (R). The stochastic process is defined by local rules and involves the following cyclic process: S -> I -> R -> S (SIRS). The open process S -> I -> R (SIR) is studied as a particular case of the SIRS process. The epidemic process is analyzed at different levels of description: by a stochastic lattice gas model and by a birth and death process. By means of Monte Carlo simulations and dynamical mean-field approximations we show that the SIRS stochastic lattice gas model exhibit a line of critical points separating the two phases: an absorbing phase where the lattice is completely full of S individuals and an active phase where S, I and R individuals coexist, which may or may not present population cycles. The critical line, that corresponds to the onset of epidemic spreading, is shown to belong in the directed percolation universality class. By considering the birth and death process we analyze the role of noise in stabilizing the oscillations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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One of the challenges in epidemiology is to account for the complex morphological structure of hosts such as plant roots, crop fields, farms, cells, animal habitats and social networks, when the transmission of infection occurs between contiguous hosts. Morphological complexity brings an inherent heterogeneity in populations and affects the dynamics of pathogen spread in such systems. We have analysed the influence of realistically complex host morphology on the threshold for invasion and epidemic outbreak in an SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemiological model. We show that disorder expressed in the host morphology and anisotropy reduces the probability of epidemic outbreak and thus makes the system more resistant to epidemic outbreaks. We obtain general analytical estimates for minimally safe bounds for an invasion threshold and then illustrate their validity by considering an example of host data for branching hosts (salamander retinal ganglion cells). Several spatial arrangements of hosts with different degrees of heterogeneity have been considered in order to separately analyse the role of shape complexity and anisotropy in the host population. The estimates for invasion threshold are linked to morphological characteristics of the hosts that can be used for determining the threshold for invasion in practical applications.

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OBJETIVO Analisar mudanças espaciais no risco de Aids e a relação entre incidência da doença e variáveis socioeconômicas. MÉTODOS Estudo caso-controle espacial, de base populacional, realizado em Rondônia, Brasil, com 1.780 casos notificados pelo Sistema de Vigilância Epidemiológica e os controles a partir de dados demográficos de 1987 a 2006. Os casos foram agrupados em cinco períodos de cinco anos consecutivos. Um modelo aditivo generalizado foi ajustado aos dados. O status dos indivíduos (caso ou controle) foi considerado como a variável dependente e independente: um alisamento ( spline ) bidimensional das coordenadas geográficas e variáveis socioeconômicas municipais. Os valores observados para o teste Moran I foram comparados com a distribuição de referência dos valores obtidos em condições de aleatoriedade espacial. RESULTADOS O risco de Aids apresentou padrão espacial e temporal marcado. A incidência associou-se a indicadores socioeconômicos municipais, como urbanização e capital humano. As maiores taxas de incidência de Aids ocorreram em municípios ao longo da rodovia BR-364; os resultados do teste Moran I mostram correlação espacial positiva associada à contiguidade dos municípios com a rodovia, no terceiro e quarto períodos (p = 0,05). CONCLUSÕES A incidência da doença foi maior em municípios de maior riqueza econômica e urbanização e naqueles cortados pelas estradas principais de Rondônia. O rápido desenvolvimento associado à ocupação de regiões remotas pode ser acompanhado por aumento de riscos à saúde.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)