Endogenous mortality, human capital and economic growth

We consider growth and welfare effects of lifetime-uncertainty in an economy with human capital-led endogenous growth. We argue that lifetime uncertainty reduces private incentives to invest in both physical and human capital. Using an overlapping generations framework with finite-lived households we analyze the relevance of government expenditure on health and education to counter such growth-reducing forces. We focus on three different models that differ with respect to the mode of financing of education: (i) both private and public spending, (ii) only public spending, and (iii) only private spending. Results show that models (i) and (iii) outperform model (ii) with respect to long-term growth rates of per capita income, welfare levels and other important macroeconomic indicators. Theoretical predictions of model rankings for these macroeconomic indicators are also supported by observed stylized facts.

Long-Term Growth and Persistence with Endogenous Depreciation: Theory and Evidence

Previous research has shown a strong positive correlation between short-term persistence and long-term output growth as well as between depreciation rates and long-term output growth. This evidence, therefore, contradicts the standard predictions from traditional neoclassical or AK-type growth models with exogenous depreciation. In this paper, we first confirm these findings for a larger sample of 101 countries. We then study the dynamics of growth and persistence in a model where both the depreciation rate and growth are endogenous and procyclical. We find that the model s predictions become consistent with the empirical evidence on persistence, long-term growth and depreciation rates.

Growth and Convergence: The case of China

Growth and Convergence: The Case of China Since the initiation of economic reforms in 1978, China has become one of the world’s fast-growing economies. The rapid growth, however, has not been shared equally across the different regions in China. The prominent feature of substantial differences in incomes and growth rates across the different Chinese regions has attracted the attention of many researchers. This book focuses on issues related to economic growth and convergence across the Chinese regions over the past three decades. The book has eight chapters. Apart from an introduction chapter and a concluding chapter, all the other chapters each deal with some certain aspects of the central issue of regional growth and convergence across China over the past three decades. The whole book is organized as follows. Chapter 1 provides an introduction to the basic issues involved in this book. Chapter 2 tests economic growth and convergence across 31 Chinese provinces during 1981-2005, based on the theoretical framework of the Solow growth model. Chapter 3 investigates the relationship between openness to foreign economic activities, such as foreign trade and foreign direct investment, and the regional economic growth in the case of China during 1981-2005. Chapter 4, based on data of 31 Chinese provinces over the period 1980-2004, presents new evidence on the effects of structural shocks and structural transformation on growth and convergence among the Chinese regions. Chapter 5, by building up an empirical model that takes account of different potential effects of foreign direct investment, focuses on the impacts of foreign direct investment on China’s regional economic performance and growth. Chapter 6 reconsiders the growth and convergence problem of the Chinese regions in an alternative theoretical framework with endogenous saving behavior and capital mobility across regions. Chapter 7, by building up a theoretical model concerning comparative advantage and transaction efficiency, focuses on one of the potential mechanisms through which China achieves its fast economic growth over the past few decades. Chapter 8 concludes the book by summarizing the results from the previous chapters and suggesting directions for further studies.

Estimates of growth and comparisons of growth rates determined from length- and age-based models for populations of purple wrasse (Notolabrus fucicola)

Growth of a temperate reefa-ssociated fish, the purple wrasse (Notolabrus fucicola), was examined from two sites on the east coast of Tasmania by using age- and length-based models. Models based on the von Bertalanffy growth function, in the standard and a reparameterized form, were constructed by using otolith-derived age estimates. Growth trajectories from tag-recaptures were used to construct length-based growth models derived from the GROTAG model, in turn a reparameterization of the Fabens model. Likelihood ratio tests (LRTs) determined the optimal parameterization of the GROTAG model, including estimators of individual growth variability, seasonal growth, measurement error, and outliers for each data set. Growth models and parameter estimates were compared by bootstrap confidence intervals, LRTs, and randomization tests and plots of bootstrap parameter estimates. The relative merit of these methods for comparing models and parameters was evaluated; LRTs combined with bootstrapping and randomization tests provided the most insight into the relationships between parameter estimates. Significant differences in growth of purple wrasse were found between sites in both length- and age-based models. A significant difference in the peak growth season was found between sites, and a large difference in growth rate between sexes was found at one site with the use of length-based models.

Religion and Economic Growth: Was Weber Right?

Evidence of falling wages in Catholic cities and rising wages in Protestant cities between 1500 and 1750, during the spread of literacy in the vernacular, is inconsistent with most theoretical models of economic growth. In The Protestant Ethic, Weber suggested an alternative explanation based on culture. Here, a theoretical model confirms that a small change in the subjective cost of cooperating with strangers can generate a profound transformation in trading networks. In explaining urban growth in early-modern Europe, specifications compatible with human-capital versions of the neoclassical model and endogenous-growth theory are rejected in favor of a “small-world” formulation based on the Weber thesis.

Labor supply, biased technological change and economic growth

Se utiliza un modelo de innovaciones sesgadas para estudiar los efectos de cambios exógenos en la oferta laboral. En un contexto de innovaciones sesgadas, a medida que las economías acumulan capital, el trabajo se hace relativamente más escaso y más caro, por este motivo, hay incentivos para adoptar tecnologías ahorradoras de trabajo. Del mismo modo un cambio en la oferta laboral afecta la abundancia de factores y sus precios relativos. En general, una reducción de la oferta laboral, hace que el trabajo sea más caro y genera incentivos para cambio tecnológico ahorrador de trabajo. Así, el efecto inicial que tiene el cambio en la oferta laboral sobre los precios de los factores es mitigado por el cambio tecnológico. Finalmente, los movimientos en la remuneración a los factores afectan las decisiones de ahorro y, por lo tanto, la dinámica del crecimiento. En este trabajo se exploran las consecuencias de una reducción de la oferta laboral en dos contextos teóricos diferentes: un modelo de agentes homogéneos y horizonte infinito y un modelo de generaciones traslapadas.

Economic growth and individual satisfaction in an agent-based economy

Macro and micro-economic perspectives are combined in an eco- nomic growth model. An agent-based modeling approach is used to develop an overlapping generation framework where endogenous growth is supported by work- ers that decide to study depending on their relative (skilled and unskilled) indi- vidual satisfaction. The micro perspective is based on individual satisfaction: an utility function computed from the variation of the relative income in both space and time. The macro perspective emerges from micro decisions, and, as in other growth models of this type, concerns an important allocative social decision the share of the working population that is engaged in producing ideas (skilled work- ers). Simulations show that production and satisfaction levels are higher when the evolution of income measured in both space and time are equally weighted.

Bayesian models for longitudinal data

Longitudinal data, where data are repeatedly observed or measured on a temporal basis of time or age provides the foundation of the analysis of processes which evolve over time, and these can be referred to as growth or trajectory models. One of the traditional ways of looking at growth models is to employ either linear or polynomial functional forms to model trajectory shape, and account for variation around an overall mean trend with the inclusion of random eects or individual variation on the functional shape parameters. The identification of distinct subgroups or sub-classes (latent classes) within these trajectory models which are not based on some pre-existing individual classification provides an important methodology with substantive implications. The identification of subgroups or classes has a wide application in the medical arena where responder/non-responder identification based on distinctly diering trajectories delivers further information for clinical processes. This thesis develops Bayesian statistical models and techniques for the identification of subgroups in the analysis of longitudinal data where the number of time intervals is limited. These models are then applied to a single case study which investigates the neuropsychological cognition for early stage breast cancer patients undergoing adjuvant chemotherapy treatment from the Cognition in Breast Cancer Study undertaken by the Wesley Research Institute of Brisbane, Queensland. Alternative formulations to the linear or polynomial approach are taken which use piecewise linear models with a single turning point, change-point or knot at a known time point and latent basis models for the non-linear trajectories found for the verbal memory domain of cognitive function before and after chemotherapy treatment. Hierarchical Bayesian random eects models are used as a starting point for the latent class modelling process and are extended with the incorporation of covariates in the trajectory profiles and as predictors of class membership. The Bayesian latent basis models enable the degree of recovery post-chemotherapy to be estimated for short and long-term followup occasions, and the distinct class trajectories assist in the identification of breast cancer patients who maybe at risk of long-term verbal memory impairment.

Four models of the creative industries

Les activités et industries culturelles sont aujourd’hui englobées dans une nouvelle approche, celle d’industries créatives. Dans ce contexte, les interrogations sur les contributions de la culture au développement économique peuvent être repensées de manière élargie. La contribution examine les différentes réponses possibles à cette question, et quatre modèles sont ainsi distingués: l’approche du bien être; l’approche concurrentielle; l’approche de la croissance; l’approche de l’innovation. A chacun de ces modèles correspond une interprétation du lien entre activités créatives et économie. Ce sont ces interprétations dont la pertinence est appréciée à l’aide de données statistiques simples.

Economic growth and inequality patterns in the presence of costly technology adoption and uncertainty

We develop a stochastic endogenous growth model to explain the diversity in growth and inequality patterns and the non-convergence of incomes in transitional economies where an underdeveloped financial sector imposes an implicit, fixed cost on the diversification of idiosyncratic risk. In the model endogenous growth occurs through physical and human capital deepening, with the latter being the more dominant element. We interpret the fixed cost as a ‘learning by doing’ cost for entrepreneurs who undertake risk in the absence of well developed financial markets and institutions that help diversify such risk. As such, this cost may be interpreted as the implicit returns foregone due to the lack of diversification opportunities that would otherwise have been available, had such institutions been present. The analytical and numerical results of the model suggest three growth outcomes depending on the productivity differences between the projects and the fixed cost associated with the more productive project. We label these outcomes as poverty trap, dual economy and balanced growth. Further analysis of these three outcomes highlights the existence of a diversity within diversity. Specifically, within the ‘poverty trap’ and ‘dual economy’ scenarios growth and inequality patterns differ, depending on the initial conditions. This additional diversity allows the model to capture a richer range of outcomes that are consistent with the empirical experience of several transitional economies.

Growth curves with time-dependent explanatory variables

A class of growth models incorporating time-dependent factors and stochastic perturbations are introduced. The proposed model includes the existing growth models used in fisheries as special cases. Particular attention is given to growth of a population (in average weight or length) from which observations are taken randomly each time and the analysis of tag-recapture data. Two real data sets are used for illustration: (a) to estimate the seasonal effect and population density effect on growth of farmed prawn (Penaeus monodon) from weight data and (b) to assess the effect of tagging on growth of barramundi (Lates calcarifer)

Modeling chickpea growth and development: Nitrogen accumulation and use

Quantitative information regarding nitrogen (N) accumulation and its distribution to leaves, stems and grains under varying environmental and growth conditions are limited for chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.). The information is required for the development of crop growth models and also for assessment of the contribution of chickpea to N balances in cropping systems. Accordingly, these processes were quantified in chickpea under different environmental and growth conditions (still without water or N deficit) using four field experiments and 1325 N measurements. N concentration ([N]) in green leaves was 50 mg g-1 up to beginning of seed growth, and then it declined linearly to 30 mg g-1 at the end of seed growth phase. [N] in senesced leaves was 12 mg g-1. Stem [N] decreased from 30 mg g-1 early in the season to 8 mg g-1 in senesced stems at maturity. Pod [N] was constant (35 mg g-1), but grain [N] decreased from 60 mg g-1 early in seed growth to 43 mg g-1 at maturity. Total N accumulation ranged between 9 and 30 g m-2. N accumulation was closely linked to biomass accumulation until maturity. N accumulation efficiency (N accumulation relative to biomass accumulation) was 0.033 g g-1 where total biomass was -2 and during early growth period, but it decreased to 0.0176 g g-1 during the later growth period when total biomass was >218 g m-2. During vegetative growth (up to first-pod), 58% of N was partitioned to leaves and 42% to stems. Depending on growth conditions, 37-72% of leaf N and 12-56% of stem N was remobilized to the grains. The parameter estimates and functions obtained in this study can be used in chickpea simulation models to simulate N accumulation and distribution.

Stochastic growth of the Eastern King Prawn (melicertus plebejus (hess, 1865)) harvested off Eastern Australia

Stochastic growth models were fitted to length-increment data of eastern king prawns, Melicertus plebejus (Hess, 1865), tagged across eastern Australia. The estimated growth parameters and growth transition matrix are for each sex representative of the species' geographical distribution. Our study explicitly displays the stochastic nature of prawn growth. Capturing length-increment growth heterogeneity for short-lived exploited species such as prawns that cannot be readily aged is essential for length-based modelling and improved management.

Modelling initial survival and growth of radiata pine in New Zealand.

A sensitive framework has been developed for modelling young radiata pine survival, its growth and its size class distribution, from time of planting to age 5 or 6 years. The data and analysis refer to the Central North Island region of New Zealand. The survival function is derived from a Weibull probability density function, to reflect diminishing mortality with the passage of time in young stands. An anamorphic family of trends was used, as very little between-tree competition can be expected in young stands. An exponential height function was found to fit best the lower portion of its sigmoid form. The most appropriate basal area/ha exponential function included an allometric adjustment which resulted in compatible mean height and basal area/ha models. Each of these equations successfully represented the effects of several establishment practices by making coefficients linear functions of site factors, management activities and their interactions. Height and diameter distribution modelling techniques that ensured compatibility with stand values were employed to represent the effects of management practices on crop variation. Model parameters for this research were estimated using data from site preparation experiments in the region and were tested with some independent data sets.