Using synoptic type analysis to understand New Zealand climate during the Mid-Holocene

Diagnosing the climate of New Zealand from low-resolution General Circulation Models (GCMs) is notoriously difficult due to the interaction of the complex topography and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-latitude westerly winds. Therefore, methods of downscaling synoptic scale model data for New Zealand are useful to help understand past climate. New Zealand also has a wealth of palaeoclimate-proxy data to which the downscaled model output can be compared, and to provide a qualitative method of assessing the capability of GCMs to represent, in this case, the climate 6000 yr ago in the Mid-Holocene. In this paper, a synoptic weather and climate regime classification system using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of GCM and reanalysis data was used. The climate regimes are associated with surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies over New Zealand. From the analysis in this study, we find at 6000 BP that increased trough activity in summer and autumn led to increased precipitation, with an increased north-south pressure gradient ("zonal events") in winter and spring leading to drier conditions. Opposing effects of increased (decreased) temperature are also seen in spring (autumn) in the South Island, which are associated with the increased zonal (trough) events; however, the circulation induced changes in temperature are likely to have been of secondary importance to the insolation induced changes. Evidence from the palaeoclimate-proxy data suggests that the Mid-Holocene was characterized by increased westerly wind events in New Zealand, which agrees with the preference for trough and zonal regimes in the models.

EOF analysis of three records of sea-ice concentration spanning the last 30 years

Several continuous observational datasets of Artic sea-ice concentration are currently available that cover the period since the advent of routine satellite observations. We report on a comparison of three sea-ice concentration datasets. These are the National Ice Center charts, and two passive microwave radiometer datasets derived using different approaches: the NASA team and Bootstrap algorithms. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses were employed to compare modes of variability and their consistency between the datasets. The analysis was motivated by the need for a reliable, realistic sea ice climatology for use in climate model simulations, for which both the variability and absolute values of extent and concentration are important. We found that, while there are significant discrepancies in absolute concentrations, the major modes of variability derived from all records were essentially the same.

Extreme rainfall variability in Australia: Patterns, drivers and predictability

Leading patterns of observed monthly extreme rainfall variability in Australia are examined using an Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) method. Extreme rainfall variability is more closely related to mean rainfall variability during austral summer than in winter. The leading EOT patterns of extreme rainfall explain less variance in Australia-wide extreme rainfall than is the case for mean rainfall EOTs. We illustrate that, as with mean rainfall, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has the strongest association with warm-season extreme rainfall variability, while in the cool-season the primary drivers are atmospheric blocking and the subtropical ridge. The Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode also have significant relationships with patterns of variability during austral winter and spring. Leading patterns of summer extreme rainfall variability have predictability several months ahead from Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and as much as a year in advance from Indian Ocean SSTs. Predictability from the Pacific is greater for wetter than average summer months than for months that are drier than average, whereas for the Indian Ocean the relationship has greater linearity. Several cool-season EOTs are associated with mid-latitude synoptic-scale patterns along the south and east coasts. These patterns have common atmospheric signatures denoting moist onshore flow and strong cyclonic anomalies often to the north of a blocking anti-cyclone. Tropical cyclone activity is observed to have significant relationships with some warm season EOTs. This analysis shows that extreme rainfall variability in Australia can be related to remote drivers and local synoptic-scale patterns throughout the year.

Interannual-decadal variability of wintertime mixed layer depths in the North Pacific detected by an ensemble of ocean syntheses

The interannual-decadal variability of the wintertime mixed layer depths (MLDs) over the North Pacific is investigated from an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of an ensemble of global ocean reanalyses. The first leading EOF mode represents the interannual MLD anomalies centered in the eastern part of the central mode water formation region in phase opposition with those in the eastern subtropics and the central Alaskan Gyre. This first EOF mode is highly correlated with the Pacific decadal oscillation index on both the interannual and decadal time scales. The second leading EOF mode represents the MLD variability in the subtropical mode water (STMW) formation region and has a good correlation with the wintertime West Pacific (WP) index with time lag of 3 years, suggesting the importance of the oceanic dynamical response to the change in the surface wind field associated with the meridional shifts of the Aleutian Low. The above MLD variabilities are in basic agreement with previous observational and modeling findings. Moreover the reanalysis ensemble provides uncertainty estimates. The interannual MLD anomalies in the first and second EOF modes are consistently represented by the individual reanalyses and the amplitudes of the variabilities generally exceed the ensemble spread of the reanalyses. Besides, the resulting MLD variability indices, spanning the 1948–2012 period, should be helpful for characterizing the North Pacific climate variability. In particular, a 6-year oscillation including the WP teleconnection pattern in the atmosphere and the oceanic MLD variability in the STMW formation region is first detected.

The role of the South Indian and Pacific oceans in South American monsoon variability

This work has investigated the impact of three different low-frequency sea surface temperature (SST) variability modes located in the Indian and the Pacific Oceans on the interannual variability of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) using observed and numerical data. Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) analysis and numerical simulations with a General Circulation Model (GCM) were used. One of the three SST variability modes is located close to southeastern Africa. According to the composites, warmer waters over this region are associated with enhanced austral summer precipitation over the sub-tropics. The GCM is able to reproduce this anomalous precipitation pattern, simulating a wave train emanating from the Indian Ocean towards South America (SA). A second SST variability mode was located in the western Pacific Ocean. REOF analysis indicates that warmer waters are associated with drought conditions over the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and enhanced precipitation over the sub-tropics. The GCM indicates that the warmer waters over Indonesia generate drought conditions over tropical SA through a Pacific South America-like (PSA) wave pattern emanating from the western Pacific. Finally, the third SST variability mode is located over the southwestern South Pacific. The composites indicate that warmer waters are associated with enhanced precipitation over the SACZ and drought conditions over the sub-tropics. There is a PSA-like wave train emanating from Indonesia towards SA, and another crossing the Southern Hemisphere in the extra-tropics, probably associated with transient activity. The GCM is able to reproduce the anomalous precipitation pattern, although it is weaker than observed. The PSA-like pattern is simulated, but the model fails in reproducing the extra-tropical wave activity.

Moisture transport and intraseasonal variability in the South America monsoon system

This paper examines moisture transport on intraseasonal timescales over the continent and over the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) during the South America (SA) summer monsoon. Combined Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOFc) of Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad precipitation, specific humidity, air temperature, zonal and meridional winds at 850 hPa (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) are performed to identify the large-scale variability of the South America monsoon system and the SACZ. The first EOFc was used as a large-scale index for the South American monsoon (LISAM), whereas the second EOFc characterized the SACZ. LISAM (SACZ) index showed spectral variance on 30-90 (15-20) days and were both band filtered (10-100 days). Intraseasonal wet anomalies were defined when LISAM and SACZ anomalies were above the 75th percentile of their respective distribution. LISAM and SACZ wet events were examined independently of each other and when they occur simultaneously. LISAM wet events were observed with the amplification of wave activity in the Northern Hemisphere and the enhancement of northwesterly cross-equatorial moisture transport over tropical continental SA. Enhanced SACZ was observed with moisture transport from the extratropics of the Southern Hemisphere. Simultaneous LISAM and SACZ wet events are associated with cross-equatorial moisture transport along with moisture transport from Subtropical Southwestern Atlantic.

Multivariate analysis of the energy cycle of the South American rainy season

The South American (SA) rainy season is studied in this paper through the application of a multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis to a SA gridded precipitation analysis and to the components of Lorenz Energy Cycle (LEC) derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis. The EOF analysis leads to the identification of patterns of the rainy season and the associated mechanisms in terms of their energetics. The first combined EOF represents the northwest-southeast dipole of the precipitation between South and Central America, the South American Monsoon System (SAMS). The second combined EOF represents a synoptic pattern associated with the SACZ (South Atlantic convergence zone) and the third EOF is in spatial quadrature to the second EOF. The phase relationship of the EOFs, as computed from the principal components (PCs), suggests a nonlinear transition from the SACZ to the fully developed SAMS mode by November and between both components describing the SACZ by September-October (the rainy season onset). According to the LEC, the first mode is dominated by the eddy generation term at its maximum, the second by both baroclinic and eddy generation terms and the third by barotropic instability previous to the connection to the second mode by September-October. The predominance of the different LEC components at each phase of the SAMS can be used as an indicator of the onset of the rainy season in terms of physical processes, while the existence of the outstanding spectral peaks in the time dependence of the EOFs at the intraseasonal time scale could be used for monitoring purposes. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Is the meander growth in the Brazil Current system off Southeast Brazil due to baroclinic instability?

Temporally-growing frontal meandering and occasional eddy-shedding is observed in the Brazil Current (BC) as it flows adjacent to the Brazilian Coast. No study of the dynamics of this phenomenon has been conducted to date in the region between 22 degrees S and 25 degrees S. Within this latitude range, the flow over the intermediate continental slope is marked by a current inversion at a depth that is associated with the Intermediate Western Boundary Current (IWBC). A time series analysis of 10-current-meter mooring data was used to describe a mean vertical profile for the BC-IWBC jet and a typical meander vertical structure. The latter was obtained by an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis that showed a single mode explaining 82% of the total variance. This mode structure decayed sharply with depth, revealing that the meandering is much more vigorous within the BC domain than it is in the IWBC region. As the spectral analysis of the mode amplitude time series revealed no significant periods, we searched for dominant wavelengths. This search was done via a spatial EOF analysis on 51 thermal front patterns derived from digitized AVHRR images. Four modes were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Modes 3 and 4, which together explained 18% of the total variance, are associated with 266 and 338-km vorticity waves, respectively. With this new information derived from the data, the [Johns, W.E., 1988. One-dimensional baroclinically unstable waves on the Gulf Stream potential vorticity gradient near Cape Hatteras. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans 11, 323-350] one-dimensional quasi-geostrophic model was applied to the interpolated mean BC-IWBC jet. The results indicated that the BC system is indeed baroclinically unstable and that the wavelengths depicted in the thermal front analysis are associated with the most unstable waves produced by the model. Growth rates were about 0.06 (0.05) days(-1) for the 266-km (338-km) wave. Moreover, phase speeds for these waves were low compared to the surface BC velocity and may account for remarks in the literature about growing standing or stationary meanders off southeast Brazil. The theoretical vertical structure modes associated with these waves resembled very closely to the one obtained for the current-meter mooring EOF analysis. We interpret this agreement as a confirmation that baroclinic instability is an important mechanism in meander growth in the BC system. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Heat transfer in laminar flow of non-Newtonian fluids in ducts of elliptical section

Laminar forced convection inside tubes of various cross-section shapes is of interest in the design of a low Reynolds number heat exchanger apparatus. Heat transfer to thermally developing, hydrodynamically developed forced convection inside tubes of simple geometries such as a circular tube, parallel plate, or annular duct has been well studied in the literature and documented in various books, but for elliptical duct there are not much work done. The main assumption used in this work is a laminar flow of a power flow inside elliptical tube, under a boundary condition of first kind with constant physical properties and negligible axial heat diffusion (high Peclet number). To solve the thermally developing problem, we use the generalized integral transform technique (GITT), also known as Sturm-Liouville transform. Actually, such an integral transform is a generalization of the finite Fourier transform where the sine and cosine functions are replaced by more general sets of orthogonal functions. The axes are algebraically transformed from the Cartesian coordinate system to the elliptical coordinate system in order to avoid the irregular shape of the elliptical duct wall. The GITT is then applied to transform and solve the problem and to obtain the once unknown temperature field. Afterward, it is possible to compute and present the quantities of practical interest, such as the bulk fluid temperature, the local Nusselt number and the average Nusselt number for various cross-section aspect ratios. (C) 2006 Elsevier. SAS. All rights reserved.

Chebyshev-Laurent polynomials and weighted approximation

Let (a, b) subset of (0, infinity) and for any positive integer n, let S-n be the Chebyshev space in [a, b] defined by S-n:= span{x(-n/2+k),k= 0,...,n}. The unique (up to a constant factor) function tau(n) is an element of S-n, which satisfies the orthogonality relation S(a)(b)tau(n)(x)q(x) (x(b - x)(x - a))(-1/2) dx = 0 for any q is an element of Sn-1, is said to be the orthogonal Chebyshev S-n-polynomials. This paper is an attempt to exibit some interesting properties of the orthogonal Chebyshev S-n-polynomials and to demonstrate their importance to the problem of approximation by S-n-polynomials. A simple proof of a Jackson-type theorem is given and the Lagrange interpolation problem by functions from S-n is discussed. It is shown also that tau(n) obeys an extremal property in L-q, 1 less than or equal to q less than or equal to infinity. Natural analogues of some inequalities for algebraic polynomials, which we expect to hold for the S-n-pelynomials, are conjectured.

Thermally developing forced convection of non-Newtonian fluids inside elliptical ducts

Laminar-forced convection inside tubes of various cross-section shapes is of interest in the design of a low Reynolds number heat exchanger apparatus. Heat transfer to thermally developing, hydrodynamically developed forced convection inside tubes of simple geometries such as a circular tube, parallel plate, or annular duct has been well studied in the literature and documented in various books, but for elliptical duct there are not much work done. The main assumptions used in this work are a non-Newtonian fluid, laminar flow, constant physical properties, and negligible axial heat diffusion (high Peclet number). Most of the previous research in elliptical ducts deal mainly with aspects of fully developed laminar flow forced convection, such as velocity profile, maximum velocity, pressure drop, and heat transfer quantities. In this work, we examine heat transfer in a hydrodynamically developed, thermally developing laminar forced convection flow of fluid inside an elliptical tube under a second kind of a boundary condition. To solve the thermally developing problem, we use the generalized integral transform technique (GITT), also known as Sturm-Liouville transform. Actually, such an integral transform is a generalization of the finite Fourier transform, where the sine and cosine functions are replaced by more general sets of orthogonal functions. The axes are algebraically transformed from the Cartesian coordinate system to the elliptical coordinate system in order to avoid the irregular shape of the elliptical duct wall. The GITT is then applied to transform and solve the problem and to obtain the once unknown temperature field. Afterward, it is possible to compute and present the quantities of practical interest, such as the bulk fluid temperature, the local Nusselt number, and the average Nusselt number for various cross-section aspect ratios.

Classification of masses in mammographic image using wavelet domain features and polynomial classifier

Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women. In CAD systems, several studies have investigated the use of wavelet transform as a multiresolution analysis tool for texture analysis and could be interpreted as inputs to a classifier. In classification, polynomial classifier has been used due to the advantages of providing only one model for optimal separation of classes and to consider this as the solution of the problem. In this paper, a system is proposed for texture analysis and classification of lesions in mammographic images. Multiresolution analysis features were extracted from the region of interest of a given image. These features were computed based on three different wavelet functions, Daubechies 8, Symlet 8 and bi-orthogonal 3.7. For classification, we used the polynomial classification algorithm to define the mammogram images as normal or abnormal. We also made a comparison with other artificial intelligence algorithms (Decision Tree, SVM, K-NN). A Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve is used to evaluate the performance of the proposed system. Our system is evaluated using 360 digitized mammograms from DDSM database and the result shows that the algorithm has an area under the ROC curve Az of 0.98 ± 0.03. The performance of the polynomial classifier has proved to be better in comparison to other classification algorithms. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perturbations on the antidiagonals of Hankel matrices

Given a strongly regular Hankel matrix, and its associated sequence of moments which defines a quasi-definite moment linear functional, we study the perturbation of a fixed moment, i.e., a perturbation of one antidiagonal of the Hankel matrix. We define a linear functional whose action results in such a perturbation and establish necessary and sufficient conditions in order to preserve the quasi-definite character. A relation between the corresponding sequences of orthogonal polynomials is obtained, as well as the asymptotic behavior of their zeros. We also study the invariance of the Laguerre-Hahn class of linear functionals under such perturbation, and determine its relation with the so-called canonical linear spectral transformations. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sintetizador analógico de sinais ortogonais: projeto e construção usando tecnologia CMOS

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Diagnose de falhas em sistemas rotativos com excitações desconhecidas, através da metodologia dos observadores de estado

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)