NDVI and vegetation phenology dynamics under the influence of sunshine duration on the Tibetan plateau

Climate change has significantly influenced vegetation dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Past research mainly focused on vegetation responses to temperature variation and water stress, but the influence of sunshine duration on NDVI and vegetation phenology on the TP is not well understood. In this study, NDVI time series from 1982-2008 were used to retrieve spatiotemporal vegetation dynamics on the TP. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was conducted to understand the spatiotemporal variations of NDVI. The Start of Season (SOS) was estimated from NDVI time series with a local threshold method. The first EOF, accounting for 35.1% of NDVI variations on the TP, indicates that NDVI variations are larger in areas with shorter sunshine duration. The needle-leaved forest and shrub in the southeastern TP are more sensitive to sunshine duration anomalies (p < 0.01) than broad-leaved forest, steppe, and meadow due to spatial and altitudinal distribution of sunshine duration and vegetation types. The decrease in sunshine duration for the growing season on the TP has resulted in a decreased NDVI trend in some areas of southeastern TP (p ranging from 0.32-0.05 with threshold ranging from 0.05 to 0.25) in spite of the overall NDVI increase. SOS dynamics in most parts of the TP were mainly related to temperature variability, with precipitation and sunshine duration playing a role in a few regions. This study enhances our understanding of vegetation responses to climatic change on the TP.

Is the meander growth in the Brazil Current system off Southeast Brazil due to baroclinic instability?

Temporally-growing frontal meandering and occasional eddy-shedding is observed in the Brazil Current (BC) as it flows adjacent to the Brazilian Coast. No study of the dynamics of this phenomenon has been conducted to date in the region between 22 degrees S and 25 degrees S. Within this latitude range, the flow over the intermediate continental slope is marked by a current inversion at a depth that is associated with the Intermediate Western Boundary Current (IWBC). A time series analysis of 10-current-meter mooring data was used to describe a mean vertical profile for the BC-IWBC jet and a typical meander vertical structure. The latter was obtained by an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis that showed a single mode explaining 82% of the total variance. This mode structure decayed sharply with depth, revealing that the meandering is much more vigorous within the BC domain than it is in the IWBC region. As the spectral analysis of the mode amplitude time series revealed no significant periods, we searched for dominant wavelengths. This search was done via a spatial EOF analysis on 51 thermal front patterns derived from digitized AVHRR images. Four modes were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Modes 3 and 4, which together explained 18% of the total variance, are associated with 266 and 338-km vorticity waves, respectively. With this new information derived from the data, the [Johns, W.E., 1988. One-dimensional baroclinically unstable waves on the Gulf Stream potential vorticity gradient near Cape Hatteras. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans 11, 323-350] one-dimensional quasi-geostrophic model was applied to the interpolated mean BC-IWBC jet. The results indicated that the BC system is indeed baroclinically unstable and that the wavelengths depicted in the thermal front analysis are associated with the most unstable waves produced by the model. Growth rates were about 0.06 (0.05) days(-1) for the 266-km (338-km) wave. Moreover, phase speeds for these waves were low compared to the surface BC velocity and may account for remarks in the literature about growing standing or stationary meanders off southeast Brazil. The theoretical vertical structure modes associated with these waves resembled very closely to the one obtained for the current-meter mooring EOF analysis. We interpret this agreement as a confirmation that baroclinic instability is an important mechanism in meander growth in the BC system. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reproducibility of South American precipitation due to subtropical South Atlantic SSTs

This work investigates the eproducibility of precipitation simulated with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by subtropical South Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. This represents an important test of the model prior to investigating the impact of SSTs on regional climate. A five-member ensemble run was performed using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model, version 3 (CCM3). The CCM3 was forced by observed monthly SST over the South Atlantic from 20 to 60 S. The SST dataset used is from the Hadley Centre covering the period of September 1949-October 2001; this covers more than 50 yr of simulation. A statistical technique is used to determine the reproducibility in the CCM3 runs and to assess potential predictability in precipitation. Empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reconstruct the ensemble using the most reproducible forced modes in order to separate the atmospheric response to local SST forcing from its internal variability. Results for reproducibility show a seasonal dependence, with higher values during austral autumn and spring. The spatial distribution of reproducibility shows that the tropical atmosphere is dominated by the underlying SSTs while variations in the subtropical-extratropical regions are primarily driven by internal variability. As such, changes in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) region are mainly dominated by internal atmospheric variability while the ITCZ has greater external dependence, making it more predictable. The reproducibility distribution reveals increased values after the reconstruction of the ensemble.

Relationship between Amazon biomass burning aerosols and rainfall over La Plata Basin

High aerosol loads are discharged into the atmosphere by biomass burning in Amazon and Central Brazil during the dry season. These particles can interact with clouds as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) changing cloud microphysics and radiative properties and, thereby, affecting the radiative budget of the region. Furthermore, the biomass burning aerosols can be transported by the low level jet (LLJ) to La Plata Basin where many mesoscale convective systems (MCS) are observed during spring and summer. This work proposes to investigate whether the aerosols from biomass burning may affect the MCS in terms of rainfall over La Plata Basin during spring. Since the aerosol effect is very difficult to isolate because convective clouds are very sensitive to small environment disturbances, detailed analyses using different techniques are used. The binplot, 2D histograms and combined empirical orthogonal function (EOF) methods are used to separate certain environment conditions with the possible effects of aerosol loading. Reanalysis 2, TRMM-3B42 and AERONET data are used from 1999 up to 2012 during September-December. The results show that there are two patterns associated to rainfall-aerosol interaction in La Plata Basin: one in which the dynamic conditions are more important than aerosols to generate rain; and a second one where the aerosol particles have a role in rain formation, acting mainly to suppress rainfall over La Plata Basin.

Twentieth Century Increase of Atmospheric Ammonia Recorded in Mount Everest Ice Core

An NH4+ record covering the period A.D. 1845-1997 was reconstructed using an 80.4 m ice core from East Rongbuk Glacier at an elevation of 6450 m on the northern slope of Mount Everest. Variations in NH4+ are characterized by a dramatic increase since the 1950s. The highest NH4+ concentrations occur in the 1980s. They are about twofold more than those in the first half of twentieth century. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis on the eight major ion (Na+,K+,Mg2+,NH4+,Ca2+,NO3-,SO42- and Cl-) series from this core indicates that NH4+ is loaded mainly on EOF3 (60% of NH4+ variance), suggesting that NH4+ has a unique signature. Instrumental sea level pressure (SLP) and regional temperatures are used to explore the relationship between NH4+ variations and both atmospheric circulation and natural source strength over Asia. Higher NH4+ concentrations are associated with an enhanced winter Mongolian High and a deepened summer Mongolian Low. A positive relationship also exists between NH4+ concentrations and regional temperature changes of the GIS Box 36 (Indian subcontinent), indicating that an increase in temperature may contribute to the strengthening of natural ammonia emissions (e. g., from plants and soils). A close positive correlation between NH4+ and acidic species (SO42- plus NO3-) concentrations suggests that a portion of the increase in NH4+ concentrations could be contributed by enhanced atmospheric acidification. Anthropogenic ammonia emissions from enhanced agricultural activities and energy consumption over Asia in concert with population increase since the 1950s appear also to be a significant factor in the dramatic increase of NH4+ concentrations during the last few decades.

Atmospheric Soluble Dust Records from a Tibetan Ice Core: Possible Climate Proxies and Teleconnection With the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

In autumn 2005, a joint expedition between the University of Maine and the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research recovered three ice cores from Guoqu Glacier (33 degrees 34'37.80 '' N, 91 degrees 10'35.3 '' E, 5720 m above sea level) on the northern side of Mt. Geladaindong, central Tibetan Plateau. Isotopes ( delta(18)O), major soluble ions (Na(+), K(+), Mg(2+), Ca(2+), Cl(-), NO(3)(-), SO(4)(2-)), and radionuclide (beta-activity) measurements from one of the cores revealed a 70-year record (1935-2005). Statistical analysis of major ion time series suggests that atmospheric soluble dust species dominate the chemical signature and that background dust levels conceal marine ion species deposition. The soluble dust time series have interspecies relations and common structure (empirical orthogonal function (EOF) 1), suggesting a similar soluble dust source or transport route. Annual and seasonal correlations between the EOF 1 time series and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis climate variables (1948-2004) suggest that the Mt. Geladaindong ice core record provides a proxy for local and regional surface pressure. An approximately threefold decrease of soluble dust concentrations in the middle to late 1970s, accompanied by regional increases in pressure and temperature and decreases in wind velocity, coincides with the major 1976-1977 shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) from a negative to a positive state. This is the first ice core evidence of a potential teleconnection between central Asian atmospheric soluble dust loading and the PDO. Analysis of temporally longer ice cores from Mt. Geladaindong may enhance understanding of the relationship between the PDO and central Asian atmospheric circulation and subsequent atmospheric soluble dust loading.

Monsoonal Circulation of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Ross Sea Region, Antarctica: Signal from the Snow Chemistry

McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV, Ross Sea region, Antarctica) precipitation exhibits extreme seasonality in ion concentration, 3-5 orders of magnitude between summer and winter precipitation. To identify aerosol sources and investigate causes for the observed amplitude in concentration variability, four snow pits were sampled along a coast-Polar Plateau transect across the MDV. The elevation of the sites ranges from 50 to 2400 m and the distance from the coast from 8 to 93 km. Average chemistry gradients along the transect indicate that most species have either a predominant marine or terrestrial source in the MDV. Empirical orthogonal function analysis on the snow-chemistry time series shows that at least 57% of aerosol deposition occurs concurrently. A conceptual climate model, based on meteorological observations, is used to explain the strong seasonality in the MDV. Our results suggest that radiative forcing of the ice-free valleys creates a surface low-pressure cell during summer which promotes air-mass flow from the Ross Sea. The associated precipitating air mass is relatively warm, humid and contains a high concentration of aerosols. During winter, the MDV are dominated by air masses draining off the East Antarctic ice sheet, that are characterized by cold, dry and low concentrations of aerosols. The strong differences between these two air-mass sources create in the MDV a polar version of the monsoonal flow, with humid, warm summers and dry, cold winters.

A 700-Year Record of Atmospheric Circulation Developed from the Law Dome Ice Core, East Antarctica

A 700-year, high-resolution, multivariate ice core record from Dome Summit South (DSS) (66degrees46'S, 112degrees48'E; 1370 m), Law Dome, is used to investigate sea level pressure (SLP) variability in the region of East Antarctica. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals that the first EOF (LDEOF1) of the combined glaciochemical, oxygen isotope ratio, and accumulation rate record from DSS represents most of the variability in sea salt seen in the record. LDEOF1 is positively correlated (at least 95% confidence level) to instrumental June mean SLP across most of East Antarctica. Over the last 700 years, LDEOF1 levels at Law Dome were the highest during the nineteenth century, suggesting an increase in intensification of winter circulation during this period. The Law Dome DSS oxygen isotope ratio series also indicates that the nineteenth century had the coldest winters of any century in the record. In contrast, LDEOF1 levels were the lowest at Law Dome during the eighteenth century, suggesting a significant shift in the patterns and/or intensity of East Antarctic atmospheric circulation between the eighteenth and the nineteenth centuries. The LDEOF1 sea salt record is characterized by significant decadal-scale variability with a strong 25-year periodic structure.

Sea Level Pressure Variability Over the Southern Indian Ocean Inferred from a Glaciochemical Record in Princess Elizabeth Land, East Antarctica

A 250-year, high-resolution, multivariate ice core record from LGB65 (70degrees50'07"S, 77degrees04'29"E; 1850 m asl), Princess Elizabeth Land (PEL), is used to investigate sea level pressure (SLP) variability over the southern Indian Ocean (SIO). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals that the first EOF (EOF1) of the glaciochemical record from LGB65 represents most of the variability in sea salt throughout the 250-year record. EOF1 is negatively correlated (95% confidence level and higher) to instrumental mean sea level pressure (MSLP) at Kerguelen and New Amsterdam islands, SIO. On the basis of comparison with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, strong correlations were found between sea-salt variations and a quasi-stationary low that lies to the north of Prydz Bay, SIO. Comparison with a 250-year-long summer transpolar index (STPI) inferred from sub-Antarctic tree ring records reveals strong coherency. Decadal-scale SLP variability over SIO suggests shifting of the polar vortex. Prominent decadal-scale deepening of the southern Indian Ocean low (SIOL) exists circa 1790, 1810, 1835, 1860, 1880, 1900, and 1940 A. D., continuously after the 1970s, and prominent weakening circa 1750, 1795, 1825, 1850, 1870, 1890, 1910, and 1955 A. D. The LGB65 sea-salt record is characterized by significant decadal-scale variability with a strong similar to21-year periodic structure (99.9% confidence level). The relationship between LGB65 sea salt and solar irradiance changes shows that this periodicity is possibly the solar Hale cycle ( 22 years).

The Polar Expression of ENSO and Sea-Ice Variability as Recorded in a South Pole Ice Core

An annually dated ice core recovered from South Pole (2850 in a.s.l.) in 1995, that covers the period 1487-1992, was analyzed for the marine biogenic sulfur species methanesulfonate (MS). Empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to calibrate the high-resolution MS series with associated environmental series for the period of overlap (1973-92). Utilizing this calibration we present a similar to500 year long proxy record of the polar expression of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and southeastern Pacific sea-ice extent variations. These records reveal short-term periods of increased (1800-50, 1900-40) and decreased sea-ice extent (1550-1610., 1660-1710, 1760-1800). In general, increased (decreased) sea-ice extent is associated with a higher (lower) frequency of El Nino events.

Chemical Composition of Fresh Snow from Glaciar Marinelli, Tierra Del Fuego, Chile

A fresh-snow sampling campaign was conducted during the late austral summer of 2006 in the accumulation zone of Glaciar Marinelli, located in the Cordillera Darwin, Tierra del Fuego, Chile. Snow samples were analyzed for stable isotopes (delta(18)O, major soluble ions (Na', K', Ca, Mg, a NO(3)(-), SO(4)(2-), MS(-)) and major and trace elements (Na, Mg, Al, Fe, Ca, Sr, Cd, Cs, Ba, La, Ce, Pr, Dy, Ho, Er, Bi, U, As, Ti, V, Cr, Mn). The dominance of marine chemistry resembles that in studies from Patagonian glaciers. Snow chemistry was dominantly loaded by marine species (Cl(-), Na(+) and ssSO(4)(2-)), while contributions of crustal species (e.g. Al and Fe) were very low. Empirical orthogonal function analysis suggests two possible dust sources, one represented by Al and Fe and the other by La, Ce and Pr. Enrichment-factor calculations suggest the majority of elements are within average upper-crustal ratios, but major enrichments of Bi and Cd (hundreds of times) suggest possible anthropogenic sources. Linear correlation of delta(18)O and barometric pressure (r = 0.60, p < 0.007) suggests a potential 'amount effect' relationship between depleted delta(18)O ratios and stronger storm conditions (e.g. greater precipitation). The snow-chemistry records from Glaciar Marinelli are the first measured in Tierra del Fuego, the southernmost glaciated region outside Antarctica.

Satellite-Derived Variability in Chlorophyll, Wind Stress, Sea Surface Height, and Temperature in the Northern California Current System

Satellite-derived data provide the temporal means and seasonal and nonseasonal variability of four physical and biological parameters off Oregon and Washington ( 41 degrees - 48.5 degrees N). Eight years of data ( 1998 - 2005) are available for surface chlorophyll concentrations, sea surface temperature ( SST), and sea surface height, while six years of data ( 2000 - 2005) are available for surface wind stress. Strong cross-shelf and alongshore variability is apparent in the temporal mean and seasonal climatology of all four variables. Two latitudinal regions are identified and separated at 44 degrees - 46 degrees N, where the coastal ocean experiences a change in the direction of the mean alongshore wind stress, is influenced by topographic features, and has differing exposure to the Columbia River Plume. All these factors may play a part in defining the distinct regimes in the northern and southern regions. Nonseasonal signals account for similar to 60 - 75% of the dynamical variables. An empirical orthogonal function analysis shows stronger intra-annual variability for alongshore wind, coastal SST, and surface chlorophyll, with stronger interannual variability for surface height. Interannual variability can be caused by distant forcing from equatorial and basin-scale changes in circulation, or by more localized changes in regional winds, all of which can be found in the time series. Correlations are mostly as expected for upwelling systems on intra-annual timescales. Correlations of the interannual timescales are complicated by residual quasi-annual signals created by changes in the timing and strength of the seasonal cycles. Examination of the interannual time series, however, provides a convincing picture of the covariability of chlorophyll, surface temperature, and surface height, with some evidence of regional wind forcing.

Spatial Patterns of Intraseasonal Variability of Chlorophyll and Sea Surface Temperature in the California Current

Six years of daily satellite data are used to quantify and map intraseasonal variability of chlorophyll and sea surface temperature (SST) in the California Current. We define intraseasonal variability as temporal variation remaining after removal of interannual variability and stationary seasonal cycles. Semivariograms are used to quantify the temporal structure of residual time series. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses of semivariograms calculated across the region isolate dominant scales and corresponding spatial patterns of intraseasonal variability. The mode 1 EOFs for both chlorophyll and SST semivariograms indicate a dominant timescale of similar to 60 days. Spatial amplitudes and patterns of intraseasonal variance derived from mode 1 suggest dominant forcing of intraseasonal variability through distortion of large scale chlorophyll and SST gradients by mesoscale circulation. Intraseasonal SST variance is greatest off southern Baja and along southern Oregon and northern California. Chlorophyll variance is greatest over the shelf and slope, with elevated values closely confined to the Baja shelf and extending farthest from shore off California and the Pacific Northwest. Intraseasonal contributions to total SST variability are strongest near upwelling centers off southern Oregon and northern California, where seasonal contributions are weak. Intraseasonal variability accounts for the majority of total chlorophyll variance in most inshore areas save for southern Baja, where seasonal cycles dominate. Contributions of higher EOF modes to semivariogram structure indicate the degree to which intraseasonal variability is shifted to shorter timescales in certain areas. Comparisons of satellite-derived SST semivariograms to those calculated from co-located and concurrent buoy SST time series show similar features.

Sea surface temperatures during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11

The Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 (424-374 ka) was characterized by a protracted deglaciation and an unusually long climatic optimum. It remains unclear to what degree the climate development during this interglacial reflects the unusually weak orbital forcing or greenhouse gas trends. Previously, arguments about the duration and timing of the MIS11 climatic optimum and about the pace of the deglacial warming were based on a small number of key records, which appear to show regional differences. In order to obtain a global signal of climate evolution during MIS11, we compiled a database of 78 sea surface temperature (SST) records from 57 sites spanning MIS11, aligned these individually on the basis of benthic (N = 28) or planktonic (N = 31) stable oxygen isotope curves to a common time frame and subjected 48 of them to an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The analysis revealed a high commonality among all records, with the principal SST trend explaining almost 49% of the variability. This trend indicates that on the global scale, the surface ocean underwent rapid deglacial warming during Termination V, in pace with carbon dioxide rise, followed by a broad SST optimum centered at ~410 kyr. The second EOF, which explained ~18% of the variability, revealed the existence of a different SST trend, characterized by a delayed onset of the temperature optimum during MIS11 at ~398 kyr, followed by a prolonged warm period lasting beyond 380 kyr. This trend is most consistently manifested in the mid-latitude North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea and is here attributed to the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. A sensitivity analysis indicates that these results are robust to record selection and to age-model uncertainties of up to 3-6 kyr, but more sensitive to SST seasonal attribution and SST uncertainties >1 °C. In order to validate the CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model, version 3) predictive potential, the annual and seasonal SST anomalies recorded in a total of 74 proxy records were compared with runs for three time slices representing orbital configuration extremes during the peak interglacial of MIS11. The modeled SST anomalies are characterized by a significantly lower variance compared to the reconstructions. Nevertheless, significant correlations between proxy and model data are found in comparisons on the seasonal basis, indicating that the model captures part of the long-term variability induced by astronomical forcing, which appears to have left a detectable signature in SST trends.

Phycoerythrin concentration during POLARSTERN cruises ANT-XXIV/4, ANT-XXV/1, and ANT-XXVI/4

Phycobiliproteins are a family of water-soluble pigment proteins that play an important role as accessory or antenna pigments and absorb in the green part of the light spectrum poorly used by chlorophyll a. The phycoerythrins (PEs) are one of four types of phycobiliproteins that are generally distinguished based on their absorption properties. As PEs are water soluble, they are generally not captured with conventional pigment analysis. Here we present a statistical model based on in situ measurements of three transatlantic cruises which allows us to derive relative PE concentration from standardized hyperspectral underwater radiance measurements (Lu). The model relies on Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of Lu spectra and, subsequently, a Generalized Linear Model with measured PE concentrations as the response variable and EOF loadings as predictor variables. The method is used to predict relative PE concentrations throughout the water column and to calculate integrated PE estimates based on those profiles.