Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact

Although there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is because the vast majority of impact assessments use emissions-based scenarios with associated socio-economic assumptions, and it is not feasible to infer impacts at other temperature changes by interpolation. This paper presents an assessment of the global-scale impacts of climate change in 2050 corresponding to defined increases in global mean temperature, using spatially-explicit impacts models representing impacts in the water resources, river flooding, coastal, agriculture, ecosystem and built environment sectors. Pattern-scaling is used to construct climate scenarios associated with specific changes in global mean surface temperature, and a relationship between temperature and sea level used to construct sea level rise scenarios. Climate scenarios are constructed from 21 climate models to give an indication of the uncertainty between forcing and response. The analysis shows that there is considerable uncertainty in the impacts associated with a given increase in global mean temperature, due largely to uncertainty in the projected regional change in precipitation. This has important policy implications. There is evidence for some sectors of a non-linear relationship between global mean temperature change and impact, due to the changing relative importance of temperature and precipitation change. In the socio-economic sectors considered here, the relationships are reasonably consistent between socio-economic scenarios if impacts are expressed in proportional terms, but there can be large differences in absolute terms. There are a number of caveats with the approach, including the use of pattern-scaling to construct scenarios, the use of one impacts model per sector, and the sensitivity of the shape of the relationships between forcing and response to the definition of the impact indicator.

Solar wind-magnetosphere coupling functions on timescales of 1 day to 1 year

There are no direct observational methods for determining the total rate at which energy is extracted from the solar wind by the magnetosphere. In the absence of such a direct measurement, alternative means of estimating the energy available to drive the magnetospheric system have been developed using different ionospheric and magnetospheric indices as proxies for energy consumption and dissipation and thus the input. The so-called coupling functions are constructed from the parameters of the interplanetary medium, as either theoretical or empirical estimates of energy transfer, and the effectiveness of these coupling functions has been evaluated in terms of their correlation with the chosen index. A number of coupling functions have been studied in the past with various criteria governing event selection and timescale. The present paper contains an exhaustive survey of the correlation between geomagnetic activity and the near-Earth solar wind and two of the planetary indices at a wide variety of timescales. Various combinations of interplanetary parameters are evaluated with careful allowance for the effects of data gaps in the interplanetary data. We show that the theoretical coupling, P�, function first proposed by Vasyliunas et al. is superior at all timescales from 1-day to 1-year.

Extracting planetary waves from geomagnetic time series using Empirical Mode Decomposition

Empirical Mode Decomposition is presented as an alternative to traditional analysis methods to decompose geomagnetic time series into spectral components. Important comments on the algorithm and its variations will be given. Using this technique, planetary wave modes of 5-, 10-, and 16-day mean periods can be extracted from magnetic field components of three different stations in Germany. In a second step, the amplitude modulation functions of these wave modes can be shown to contain significant contribution from solar cycle variation through correlation with smoothed sunspot numbers. Additionally, the data indicate connections with geomagnetic jerk occurrences, supported by a second set of data providing reconstructed near-Earth magnetic field for 150 years. Usually attributed to internal dynamo processes within the Earth's outer core, the question of who is impacting whom will be briefly discussed here.

Empirical analysis of the Lieb-Oxford bound in ions and molecules

Universal properties of the Coulomb interaction energy apply to all many-electron systems. Bounds on the exchange-correlation energy, in particular, are important for the construction of improved density functionals. Here we investigate one such universal property-the Lieb-Oxford lower bound-for ionic and molecular systems. In recent work [J Chem Phys 127, 054106 (2007)], we observed that for atoms and electron liquids this bound may be substantially tightened. Calculations for a few ions and molecules suggested the same tendency, but were not conclusive due to the small number of systems considered. Here we extend that analysis to many different families of ions and molecules, and find that for these, too, the bound can be empirically tightened by a similar margin as for atoms and electron liquids. Tightening the Lieb-Oxford bound will have consequences for the performance of various approximate exchange-correlation functionals. (C) 2008 Wiley Periodicals Inc.

Fitting triangular norms to empirical data

This chapter discusses some specific tools that can be used to build triangular norms based on a finite number of (possibly noisy) observations. Such problem arises in applications, when observed data (e.g., decision patterns of experts) need to be modelled with a special class of functions, such as triangular norms. We show how this problem can be transformed into a constrained regression problem, and then efficiently solved. We also discuss related operators: uninorms, nullnorms and associative copulas.

Female labour force participation, fertility and infant mortality in Australia : some empirical evidence from Granger causality tests

This study applies Granger causality tests within a multivariate error correction framework to examine the relationship between female participation rates, infant mortality rates and fertility rates for Australia using annual data from 1960 to 2000. Decomposition of variance and impulse response functions are also considered. The main findings are twofold. First, in the short run there is unidirectional Granger causality running from the fertility rate to female labour force participation and from the infant mortality rate to female labour force participation while there is neutrality between the fertility rate and infant mortality rate. Second, in the long run both the fertility rate and infant mortality rate Granger cause female labour participation.

Prison officer's beliefs regarding self-harm in prisoners : an empirical investigation

The prevention of self-harm and suicide in prisoners depends on good interaction between the individual prisoner and prison staff. Staff perceptions of prisoner self-harm are likely to be a crucial factor influencing this interaction. The aim of the present study was to determine correctional officers' perception of the causes and functions of self-harm, and the effects of incident severity and repetitiveness on perceptions. A sample of 76 correctional officers was presented with a vignette depicting a self-harm in which the severity and repetitiveness of the incident was systematically altered. Officers' rated both the causes and functions of the behaviour. Four attributional dimensions were identified by factor analysis. These factors related primarily to personal factors about the individual prisoner. Staff perceived the functions of self-harm to be communicative rather than to commit suicide. Perceptions were not affected by severity or repetitiveness information, except for high severity leading to a greater perception of suicidal intent. Initiatives to help staff work more effectively and therapeutically with distressed prisoners are therefore likely to impact positively upon rates of self-harm.

Construction of k-Lipschitz triangular norms and conorms from empirical data

This paper examines the practical construction of k-Lipschitz triangular norms and conorms from empirical data. We apply a characterization of such functions based on k-convex additive generators and translate k-convexity of piecewise linear strictly decreasing functions into a simple set of linear inequalities on their coefficients. This is the basis of a simple linear spline-fitting algorithm, which guarantees k-Lipschitz property of the resulting triangular norms and conorms.

Dipole time correlation functions of the Stockmayer fluid in the microcanonical and canonical ensembles

Computer simulations of Stockmayer fluids were performed to generate dipole time correlation functions (TCF) at three temperatures and three dipole moments in both the microcanonical and canonical ensembles. The effect of Nosé constant-temperature dynamics on time-dependent quantities is discussed, and empirical results are given to show that the choice of thermal inertia parameter influences the speed with which a system moves through its phase space. The time correlation functions from the simulations were analyzed in terms of current theories for dipolar systems. A functional form is proposed to cover both the longtime and short-time behavior of the time correlation functions of dipoles. The relationship between this functional form and the dielectric function of the Stockmayer system is also discussed.

Developing an empirical algorithm for protecting text-based CAPTCHAs against segmentation attacks

In this paper, we aim to provide an effective and efficient method to generate text-based Captchas which are resilient against segmentation attack. Different to the popular industry practice of using very simple color schemes, we advocate to use multiple colors in our Captchas. We adopt the idea of brush and canvas when coloring our Captchas. Furthermore, we choose to use simple accumulating functions to achieve diffusion on painted colors and DES encryption to achieve a good level of confusion on the brush pattern. To facilitate ordinary users and developers, we propose an empirical algorithm with support of Taguchi method to guarantee the quality of the chosen color schemes. Our proposed methodology has at least three advantages — 1) the settings of color schemes can be fully customized by the user or developer; 2) the quality of selected colors have desirable statistical features that are ensured by Taguchi method; 3) the algorithm can be fully automated into computer programs. Moreover, our included examples and experiments prove the practicality and validity of our algorithm.

Longitudinal familial analysis of blood pressure involving parametric (co)variance functions

Abstract Background For analyzing longitudinal familial data we adopted a log-linear form to incorporate heterogeneity in genetic variance components over the time, and additionally a serial correlation term in the genetic effects at different levels of ages. Due to the availability of multiple measures on the same individual, we permitted environmental correlations that may change across time. Results Systolic blood pressure from family members from the first and second cohort was used in the current analysis. Measures of subjects receiving hypertension treatment were set as censored values and they were corrected. An initial check of the variance and covariance functions proposed for analyzing longitudinal familial data, using empirical semi-variogram plots, indicated that the observed trait dispersion pattern follows the assumptions adopted. Conclusion The corrections for censored phenotypes based on ordinary linear models may be an appropriate simple model to correct the data, ensuring that the original variability in the data was retained. In addition, empirical semi-variogram plots are useful for diagnosis of the (co)variance model adopted.

Reconstruction of spatiotemporal capture data by means of orthogonal functions: the case of skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) in the central-east Atlantic

[EN] The information provided by the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT) on captures of skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) in the central-east Atlantic has a number of limitations, such as gaps in the statistics for certain fleets and the level of spatiotemporal detail at which catches are reported. As a result, the quality of these data and their effectiveness for providing management advice is limited. In order to reconstruct missing spatiotemporal data of catches, the present study uses Data INterpolating Empirical Orthogonal Functions (DINEOF), a technique for missing data reconstruction, applied here for the first time to fisheries data. DINEOF is based on an Empirical Orthogonal Functions decomposition performed with a Lanczos method. DINEOF was tested with different amounts of missing data, intentionally removing values from 3.4% to 95.2% of data loss, and then compared with the same data set with no missing data. These validation analyses show that DINEOF is a reliable methodological approach of data reconstruction for the purposes of fishery management advice, even when the amount of missing data is very high.

Development of empirical potentials for amorphous silica

Development of empirical potentials for amorphous silica Amorphous silica (SiO2) is of great importance in geoscience and mineralogy as well as a raw material in glass industry. Its structure is characterized as a disordered continuous network of SiO4 tetrahedra. Many efforts have been undertaken to understand the microscopic properties of silica by classical molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. In this method the interatomic interactions are modeled by an effective potential that does not take explicitely into account the electronic degrees of freedom. In this work, we propose a new methodology to parameterize such a potential for silica using ab initio simulations, namely Car-Parrinello (CP) method [Phys. Rev. Lett. 55, 2471 (1985)]. The new potential proposed is compared to the BKS potential [Phys. Rev. Lett. 64, 1955 (1990)] that is considered as the benchmark potential for silica. First, CP simulations have been performed on a liquid silica sample at 3600 K. The structural features so obtained have been compared to the ones predicted by the classical BKS potential. Regarding the bond lengths the BKS tends to underestimate the Si-O bond whereas the Si-Si bond is overestimated. The inter-tetrahedral angular distribution functions are also not well described by the BKS potential. The corresponding mean value of theSiOSi angle is found to be ≃ 147◦, while the CP yields to aSiOSi angle centered around 135◦. Our aim is to fit a classical Born-Mayer/Coulomb pair potential using ab initio calculations. To this end, we use the force-matching method proposed by Ercolessi and Adams [Europhys. Lett. 26, 583 (1994)]. The CP configurations and their corresponding interatomic forces have been considered for a least square fitting procedure. The classical MD simulations with the resulting potential have lead to a structure that is very different from the CP one. Therefore, a different fitting criterion based on the CP partial pair correlation functions was applied. Using this approach the resulting potential shows a better agreement with the CP data than the BKS ones: pair correlation functions, angular distribution functions, structure factors, density of states and pressure/density were improved. At low temperature, the diffusion coefficients appear to be three times higher than those predicted by the BKS model, however showing a similar temperature dependence. Calculations have also been carried out on crystalline samples in order to check the transferability of the potential. The equilibrium geometry as well as the elastic constants of α-quartz at 0 K are well described by our new potential although the crystalline phases have not been considered for the parameterization. We have developed a new potential for silica which represents an improvement over the pair potentials class proposed so far. Furthermore, the fitting methodology that has been developed in this work can be applied to other network forming systems such as germania as well as mixtures of SiO2 with other oxides (e.g. Al2O3, K2O, Na2O).

Anti-Americanism in Europe: Theoretical Mechanisms and Empirical Evidence

One of the most popular explanations for post-9/11 anti-Americanism argues that resentment against America and Americans is mainly a function of the US government’s unpopular actions. The present article challenges this interpretation: first, it argues that neither the vitality of the resentment in times when the United States had no influence in the respective parts of the world nor its recent radical manifestations are accounted for in a political reductionist framework. In fact, specific traditions of anti-Americanism have an influence on the negative attitudes observed today, as a comparison between Britain, France, Germany, and Poland reveals. Second, this article suggests an alternative theoretical approach. Anti-Americanism can be explained by two basic mechanisms: it functions as a strategy to project denied and disliked self-concepts onto an external object, and it offers an interpretation frame for complex social processes that allows to reduce cognitive dissonance. Multivariate analyses based on empirical data collected in the Pew surveys of 2002 and 2007 show the fruitfulness of our theoretical approach.

Executive functions after pediatric mild traumatic brain injury: A prospective short-term longitudinal study

Traumatic brain injuries (TBIs) occur frequently in childhood and entail broad cognitive deficits, particularly in the domain of executive functions (EF). Concerning mild TBI (mTBI), only little empirical evidence is available on acute and postacute performance in EF. Given that EF are linked to school adaptation and achievement, even subtle deficits in performance may affect children's academic careers. The present study assessed performance in the EF components of inhibition, working memory (WM), and switching in children after mTBI. Regarding both acute and postacute consequences, performance trajectories were measured in 13 patients aged between 5 and 10 years and 13 controls who were closely matched in terms of sex, age, and education. Performance in the EF components of inhibition, switching, and WM was assessed in a short-term longitudinal design at 2, 6, and 12 weeks after the mTBI. Results indicate subtle deficits after mTBI, which became apparent in the longitudinal trajectory in the EF components of switching and WM. Compared with controls, children who sustained mTBI displayed an inferior performance enhancement across testing sessions in the first 6 weeks after the injury in switching and WM, resulting in a delayed deficit in the EF component of WM 12 weeks after the injury. Results are interpreted as mTBI-related deficits that become evident in terms of an inability to profit from previous learning opportunities, a finding that is potentially important for children's mastery of their daily lives.