El proceso electoral de 1917 en la provincia de Buenos Aires y el triunfo de la U.C.R.

El 24 de abril de 1917 se dictó el decreto de intervención federal a la provincia de Buenos Aires. Producido este hecho, las diversas fuerzas políticas se prepararon para participar en las elecciones de gobernador y legisladores que habrían de realizarse en marzo de 1918, pero fue en el radicalismo donde el proceso habría de ser realmente complicado. Arribada la UCR al poder a través de la intervención y con claras perspectivas de llegar al gobierno, rápidamente se pudo contemplar que, dentro de la misma y sin llegar a la ruptura, se formaron dos líneas claramente contrapuestas que se denominaron provincialistas, origen en parte del antipersonalismo provincial, y los metropolitanos. Luego de un arduo proceso, con activa participación de Yrigoyen, se llegó a dar consenso a la fórmula Crotto-Monteverde, que habría de imponerse sobre los conservadores y socialistas, pero que dejó abierto el camino para las fuertes luchas intrapartidarias del radicalismo

El proceso electoral de 1917 en la provincia de Buenos Aires y el triunfo de la U.C.R.

El 24 de abril de 1917 se dictó el decreto de intervención federal a la provincia de Buenos Aires. Producido este hecho, las diversas fuerzas políticas se prepararon para participar en las elecciones de gobernador y legisladores que habrían de realizarse en marzo de 1918, pero fue en el radicalismo donde el proceso habría de ser realmente complicado. Arribada la UCR al poder a través de la intervención y con claras perspectivas de llegar al gobierno, rápidamente se pudo contemplar que, dentro de la misma y sin llegar a la ruptura, se formaron dos líneas claramente contrapuestas que se denominaron provincialistas, origen en parte del antipersonalismo provincial, y los metropolitanos. Luego de un arduo proceso, con activa participación de Yrigoyen, se llegó a dar consenso a la fórmula Crotto-Monteverde, que habría de imponerse sobre los conservadores y socialistas, pero que dejó abierto el camino para las fuertes luchas intrapartidarias del radicalismo

Social cleavages and electoral support in Turkey -- toward convergence?

Studies on Western democracies have shown that deep-seated social cleavages stabilize the electoral behavior and thus reduce electoral volatility. But how do social cleavages affect a party system that is undergoing democratic consolidation, such as in Turkey? In this study, investigations were carried out on long- and short-term relationships between social cleavages (religiosity, ethnicity, and sectarism) and electoral volatility in Turkey during the 1961-2002 period. Cross-sectional multiple regressions were applied to electoral and demographic data at the provincial level. The results showed that in the long-term, social cleavages on the whole have increased volatility rather than reduced it. The cleavage-volatility relationship, however, has changed over time. Repeated elections have mitigated the volatile effect of social cleavages on the voting behavior, as political parties have become more representative of the existent social cleavages.

Party Members as an Electoral Linking Mechanism

While party membership figures are clearly in decline in several Western countries, different interpretations have been offered on the likely consequences of this trend. Some authors stress that members have lost most of their importance for political parties that increasingly rely on professionalized campaign techniques. Other scholars have expressed concern about the decline of party membership. They emphasize the fact that party members continue to function as an important linkage mechanism providing a structural alignment between the party and society (and thus also to potential voters). By means of an election forecasting model for Belgium, we test whether party membership figures still can be related to election results. Results show that party membership has a strong effect on election results, and furthermore, that this relation does not weaken during the period under investigation (1981-2010). The analysis also demonstrates that forecasting models can also be used in a complex multiparty system like Belgium.

Germany and the Eurocrisis: The timing of politics and the politics of timing. ACES Cases No. 2014.3

This paper speculates on the future of the euro. It uses Germany as a prism for the discussion about what might be done next to bolster the Euro. Researching the future—always a challenging task—is made harder when multiple state actors contend for prominence on the basis of shifting coalitions at home, all while interacting at an international level. That said, almost everyone accepts that German choices will play the central role in the path ultimately chosen. This paper thus foregrounds Germany’s role in shaping the way ahead, and it does so through an explicitly political framework focused primarily on the electoral implausibility of an alternative German policy course.

Greece as an example of “post-politics” in the eurozone. EPIN Commentary No. 28/9 November 2015

The negotiations between Greece and the EU and IMF tested the unity, limits, stamina and financial interdependence of eurozone member states. Greece emerged wounded from the fray, but Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has established beyond doubt his dominance in Greek politics, in defiance of partisan competitors at home and his counterparts’ wishes in the rest of Europe. In this EPIN Commentary the authors argue that – beyond the political significance of SYRIZA’s third electoral victory in seven months – this vote of confidence brings certain characteristics of both Greek and EU politics into sharper relief. The high-risk political activism undertaken by Syriza’s leadership in the first half of 2015 has (re)opened the debate about what kind of EU we live in, and contributed to the creation of another type of discourse in Europe – one that has so far been the preserve of established elites.

Ethnic Politics, Regime Support and Conflict in Central and Eastern Europe

Ethnicity and ethnic parties have often been portrayed as a threat to political stability. There is also no shortage of conflicts with an ethnic flavor. Yet, this book challenges the notion that the organization of politics in heterogeneous societies should necessarily overcome ethnicity. Rather, descriptive representation of ethnic groups arguably has potential to increase regime support and reduce conflict. The book studies partisan-descriptive representation of up to 130 ethnic groups in central and eastern European democracies. Ethnic minority parties are found to only run and succeed if they can expect electoral support sufficient to pass the electoral threshold. Conditional on gender and strategies of representation, ethnic representation increases satisfaction with democracy among the minority population. While protest rises given moderate levels of representation, it is reduced once ethnic groups have access to executives. In conclusion, a proportional vision of power-sharing between ethnic groups receives some qualified empirical support.

Party Members as an Electoral Linking Mechanism

While party membership figures are clearly in decline in several Western countries, different interpretations have been offered on the likely consequences of this trend. Some authors stress that members have lost most of their importance for political parties that increasingly rely on professionalized campaign techniques. Other scholars have expressed concern about the decline of party membership. They emphasize the fact that party members continue to function as an important linkage mechanism providing a structural alignment between the party and society (and thus also to potential voters). By means of an election forecasting model for Belgium, we test whether party membership figures still can be related to election results. Results show that party membership has a strong effect on election results, and furthermore, that this relation does not weaken during the period under investigation (1981-2010). The analysis also demonstrates that forecasting models can also be used in a complex multiparty system like Belgium.

Electoral Volatility, Political Sophistication, Trust and Efficacy

In this article we investigate voter volatility and analyze the causes and motives of switching vote intentions. We test two main sets of variables linked to volatility in literature; political sophistication and ‘political (dis)satisfaction’. Results show that voters with low levels of political efficacy tend to switch more often, both within a campaign and between elections. In the analysis we differentiate between campaign volatility and inter-election volatility and by doing so show that the dynamics of a campaign have a profound impact on volatility. The campaign period is when the lowly sophisticated switch their vote intention. Those with higher levels of interest in politics have switched their intention before the campaign has started. The data for this analysis are from the three wave PartiRep Belgian Election Study (2009).

Mixed-Member Electoral Systems in Constitutional Context : Taiwan, Japan, and Beyond /

After the electoral reform in 1994, Japan saw a gradual evolution from a multi-party system toward a two-party system over the course of five House of Representatives election cycles. In contrast, after Taiwan’s constitutional amendment in 2005, a two-party system emerged in the first post-reform legislative election in 2008. Critically, however, Taiwan’s president is directly elected while Japan’s prime minister is indirectly elected. The contributors conclude that the higher the payoffs of holding the executive office and the greater degree of cross-district coordination required to win it, the stronger the incentives for elites to form and stay in the major parties. In such a context, a country will move rapidly toward a two-party system. In Part II, the contributors apply this theoretical logic to other countries with mixed-member systems to demonstrate its generality. They find the effect of executive competition on legislative electoral rules in countries as disparate as Thailand, the Philippines, New Zealand, Bolivia, and Russia. The findings presented in this book have important implications for political reform. Often, reformers are motivated by high hopes of solving some political problems and enhancing the quality of democracy. But, as this group of scholars demonstrates, electoral reform alone is not a panacea. Whether and to what extent it achieves the advocated goals depends not only on the specification of new electoral rules per se but also on the political context—and especially the constitutional framework—within which such rules are embedded.

The politics of the new Germany

The Politics of the New Germany takes a new approach to understanding politics in the post-unification Federal Republic. Assuming only elementary knowledge, it focuses on debates and issues in order to help students understand both the workings of Germany's key institutions and some of the key policy challenges facing German politicians. Written in a straightforward style by four experts, each of the chapters draws on a rich variety of real-world examples. Packed with boxed summaries of key points, a guide to further reading and a range of seminar questions for discussion at the end of each chapter, this book highlights both the challenges and opportunities facing policy-makers in such areas as foreign affairs, economic policy, immigration, identity politics and institutional reforms. The book also takes a bird's-eye view of the big debates that define German politics over time, regardless of which party happens to be in power. It pinpoints three key themes that have characterised German politics over the last sixty years; reconciliation, consensus and transformation. Table of Contents: Introduction 1. Germany and the Burden of History 2. Germany’s Post-War Development, 1945-1989 3. Towards German Unity? 4. A Blockaded System of Government? 5. The Party System and Electoral Behaviour: The Path to Stable Instability? 6. Economic Management: The End of the German Model? 7. Citizenship and Demographics: A Country of Immigration? 8. The Reform of the Welfare State? 9. Germany and the European Union: A European Germany or a German Europe? 10. Foreign and Security Policy: A New Role for the Twenty-First Century? 11. Conclusion

Between ideology and pragmatism: the politics of dual nationality in Germany

This article discusses the policy and politics of dual nationality in Germany. It contrasts the policy reality, in which dual nationality is tolerated in a wide range of cases, with Germany's continued opposition in principle to this phenomenon. It then analyzes political, cultural and electoral factors to explain why this opposition persists despite these widespread exceptions. In conclusion, the article argues that by continuing formally to oppose dual nationalities, Germany in effect discourages naturalizations and thereby continues to operate a broadly exclusive citizenship.