Co-variation of temperature and precipitation in CMIP5 models and satellite observations

Current variability of precipitation (P) and its response to surface temperature (T) are analysed using coupled(CMIP5) and atmosphere-only (AMIP5) climate model simulations and compared with observational estimates. There is striking agreement between Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observed and AMIP5 simulated P anomalies over land both globally and in the tropics suggesting that prescribed sea surface temperature and realistic radiative forcings are sufficient for simulating the interannual variability in continental P. Differences between the observed and simulated P variability over the ocean, originate primarily from the wet tropical regions, in particular the western Pacific, but are reduced slightly after 1995. All datasets show positive responses of P to T globally of around 2 %/K for simulations and 3-4 %/K in GPCP observations but model responses over the tropical oceans are around 3 times smaller than GPCP over the period 1988-2005. The observed anticorrelation between land and ocean P, linked with El Niño Southern Oscillation, is captured by the simulations. All data sets over the tropical ocean show a tendency for wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier with warming. Over the wet region (75% precipitation percentile), the precipitation response is ~13-15%/K for GPCP and ~5%/K for models while trends in P are 2.4%/decade for GPCP, 0.6% /decade for CMIP5 and 0.9%/decade for AMIP5 suggesting that models are underestimating the precipitation responses or a deficiency exists in the satellite datasets.

Connection between Caspian sea level variability and ENSO

The problem of the world greatest lake, the Caspian Sea, level changes attracts the increased attention due to its environmental consequences and unique natural characteristics. Despite the huge number of studies aimed to explain the reasons of the sea level variations the underlying mechanism has not yet been clarified. The important question is to what extent the CSL variability is linked to changes in the global climate system and to what extent it can be explained by internal natural variations in the Caspian regional hydrological system. In this study an evidence of a link between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and changes of the Caspian Sea level is presented. This link was also found to be dominating in numerical experiments with the ECHAM4 atmospheric general circulation model on the 20th century climate.

The signature of ENSO in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude seasonal mean flow and high-frequency intraseasonal variability

The impact of pronounced positive and negative sea surface temperature (STT) anomalies in the tropical Pacific associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon on the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the boreal winter season is investigated. This includes both the impact on the seasonal mean flow and on the intraseasonal variability on synoptic time scales. Moreover, the interaction between the transient fluctuations on these times scales and the mean circulation is examined. Both data from an ensemble of five simulations with the ECHAM3 atmospheric general circulation model at a horizontal resolution of T42 each covering the period from 1979 through 1992 and operational analyses from ECMWF for the corresponding period are examined. In each of the simulations observed SSTs for the period of investigation are given as lower boundary forcing, but different atmospheric initial conditions are prescribed. The simulations with ECHAM3 reveal a distinct impact of the pronounced SST-anomalies in the tropical Pacific on the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during El Niño as well as during La Niña events. These changes in the atmospheric circulation, which are found to be highly significant in the Pacific/North American as well as in the Atlantic/European region, are consistent with the essential results obtained from the analyses. The pronounced SST-anomalies in the tropical Pacific lead to changes in the mean circulation, which are characterized by typical circulation patterns. These changes in the mean circulation are accompanied by marked variations of the activity of the transient fluctuations on synoptic time scales, that are changes in both the kinetic energy on these time scales and the atmospheric transports of momentum and heat accomplished by the short baroclinic waves. The synoptic disturbances, on the other hand, play also an important role in controlling the changes in the mean circulation associated with the ENSO phenomenon. They maintain these typical circulation patterns via barotropic, but counteract them via baroclinic processes. The hypothesis of an impact of the ENSO phenomenon in the Atlantic/European region can be supported. As the determining factor the intensification (reduction) of the Aleutian low and the simultaneous reduction (intensification) of the Icelandic low during El Niño and during La Niña events respectively, is identified. The changes in the intensity of the Aleutian low during the ENSO-events are accompanied by an alteration of the transport of momentum caused by the short baroclinic waves over the North American continent in such a way that the changes in the intensity of the Icelandic low during El Niño as well as during La Niña events are maintained.

Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches

This paper provides an update on research in the relatively new and fast-moving field of decadal climate prediction, and addresses the use of decadal climate predictions not only for potential users of such information but also for improving our understanding of processes in the climate system. External forcing influences the predictions throughout, but their contributions to predictive skill become dominant after most of the improved skill from initialization with observations vanishes after about six to nine years. Recent multi-model results suggest that there is relatively more decadal predictive skill in the North Atlantic, western Pacific, and Indian Oceans than in other regions of the world oceans. Aspects of decadal variability of SSTs, like the mid-1970s shift in the Pacific, the mid-1990s shift in the northern North Atlantic and western Pacific, and the early-2000s hiatus, are better represented in initialized hindcasts compared to uninitialized simulations. There is evidence of higher skill in initialized multi-model ensemble decadal hindcasts than in single model results, with multi-model initialized predictions for near term climate showing somewhat less global warming than uninitialized simulations. Some decadal hindcasts have shown statistically reliable predictions of surface temperature over various land and ocean regions for lead times of up to 6-9 years, but this needs to be investigated in a wider set of models. As in the early days of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction, improvements to models will reduce the need for bias adjustment, and increase the reliability, and thus usefulness, of decadal climate predictions in the future.

Geochemical changes recorded in Lynch's Crater, Northeastern Australia, over the past 50 ka

There are many geochemical reconstructions of environmental change in the mid and high latitudes but relatively few in the tropical latitudes, despite their considerable potential for reconstructing environmental processes that cannot be identified using more traditional proxies. Here we present one reconstruction of environmental change for the tropics. This reconstruction covers the past 50 ka using a suite of geochemical data from the high-resolution sequence of Lynch's Crater in northeast Queensland, Australia, a region highly sensitive to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity. The 23 major oxides and trace elements measured could be summarised by extracting three axes using principal components analysis (accounting for 72% of the variability). The data indicate that the greatest variability in the geochemical data accounted for erosional activity within the catchment that was associated with past changes in the frequency of ENSO activity (though this was less sensitive during wetter periods, probably as a result of buffering by high vegetation cover). The remaining variability was largely explained by elements that form complexes with organic compounds (e.g., humic acids) and those that are important nutrients for specific vegetation types (and therefore a measure of vegetation distribution). For more detailed reconstructions, further work is required to disentangle the complex controls of elements within sedimentary sequences.

Changes in tropical Atlantic interannual variability from a substantial weakening of the meridional overturning circulation

In response to a substantial weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)— from a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model experiment—significant changes in the interannual variability are found over the tropical Atlantic, characterized by an increase of variance (by ~150 %) in boreal late spring-early summer and a decrease of variance (by ~60 %) in boreal autumn. This study focuses on understanding physical mechanisms responsible for these changes in interannual variability in the tropical Atlantic. It demonstrates that the increase of variability in spring is a consequence of an increase in the variance of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which has a large impact on the tropical Atlantic via anomalous surface heat fluxes. Winter El Niño (La Niña) affects the eastern equatorial Atlantic by decreasing (increasing) cloud cover and surface wind speed which is associated with anomalous downward (upward) short wave radiation and reduced (enhanced) upward latent heat fluxes, creating anomalous positive (negative) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the region from winter to spring. On the other hand, the decrease of SST variance in autumn is due to a deeper mean thermocline which weakens the impact of the thermocline movement on SST variation. The comparison between the model results and observations is not straightforward owing to the influence of model biases and the lack of a major MOC weakening event in the instrumental record. However, it is argued that the basic physical mechanisms found in the model simulations are likely to be robust and therefore have relevance to understanding tropical Atlantic variability in the real world, perhaps with modified seasonality.

Observed and simulated precipitation responses in wet and dry regions 1850–2100

Global warming is expected to enhance fluxes of fresh water between the surface and atmosphere, causing wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier, with serious implications for water resource management. Defining the wet and dry regions as the upper 30% and lower 70% of the precipitation totals across the tropics (30° S–30° N) each month we combine observations and climate model simulations to understand changes in the wet and dry regions over the period 1850–2100. Observed decreases in precipitation over dry tropical land (1950–2010) are also simulated by coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models (−0.3%/decade) with trends projected to continue into the 21st century. Discrepancies between observations and simulations over wet land regions since 1950 exist, relating to decadal fluctuations in El Niño southern oscillation, the timing of which is not represented by the coupled simulations. When atmosphere-only simulations are instead driven by observed sea surface temperature they are able to adequately represent this variability over land. Global distributions of precipitation trends are dominated by spatial changes in atmospheric circulation. However, the tendency for already wet regions to become wetter (precipitation increases with warming by 3% K−1 over wet tropical oceans) and the driest regions drier (precipitation decreases of −2% K−1 over dry tropical land regions) emerges over the 21st century in response to the substantial surface warming.

Sea-surface temperature records of Termination 1 in the Gulf of California: Challenges for seasonal and interannual analogues of tropical Pacific climate change

Centennial-scale records of sea-surface temperature and opal composition spanning the Last Glacial Maximum and Termination 1 (circa 25–6 ka) are presented here from Guaymas Basin in the Gulf of California. Through the application of two organic geochemistry proxies, the U37K′ index and the TEX86H index, we present evidence for rapid, stepped changes in temperatures during deglaciation. These occur in both temperature proxies at 13 ka (∼3°C increase in 270 years), 10.0 ka (∼2°C decrease over ∼250 years) and at 8.2 ka (3°C increase in <200 years). An additional rapid warming step is also observed in TEX86H at 11.5 ka. In comparing the two temperature proxies and opal content, we consider the potential for upwelling intensity to be recorded and link this millennial-scale variability to shifting Intertropical Convergence Zone position and variations in the strength of the Subtropical High. The onset of the deglacial warming from 17 to 18 ka is comparable to a “southern hemisphere” signal, although the opal record mimics the ice-rafting events of the north Atlantic (Heinrich events). Neither the modern seasonal cycle nor El Niño/Southern Oscillation patterns provide valid analogues for the trends we observe in comparison with other regional records. Fully coupled climate model simulations confirm this result, and in combination we question whether the seasonal or interannual climate variations of the modern climate are valid analogues for the glacial and deglacial tropical Pacific.

Extreme rainfall variability in Australia: Patterns, drivers and predictability

Leading patterns of observed monthly extreme rainfall variability in Australia are examined using an Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) method. Extreme rainfall variability is more closely related to mean rainfall variability during austral summer than in winter. The leading EOT patterns of extreme rainfall explain less variance in Australia-wide extreme rainfall than is the case for mean rainfall EOTs. We illustrate that, as with mean rainfall, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has the strongest association with warm-season extreme rainfall variability, while in the cool-season the primary drivers are atmospheric blocking and the subtropical ridge. The Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode also have significant relationships with patterns of variability during austral winter and spring. Leading patterns of summer extreme rainfall variability have predictability several months ahead from Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and as much as a year in advance from Indian Ocean SSTs. Predictability from the Pacific is greater for wetter than average summer months than for months that are drier than average, whereas for the Indian Ocean the relationship has greater linearity. Several cool-season EOTs are associated with mid-latitude synoptic-scale patterns along the south and east coasts. These patterns have common atmospheric signatures denoting moist onshore flow and strong cyclonic anomalies often to the north of a blocking anti-cyclone. Tropical cyclone activity is observed to have significant relationships with some warm season EOTs. This analysis shows that extreme rainfall variability in Australia can be related to remote drivers and local synoptic-scale patterns throughout the year.

Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985-2012

Combining satellite data, atmospheric reanalyses and climate model simulations, variability in the net downward radiative flux imbalance at the top of Earth's atmosphere (N) is reconstructed and linked to recent climate change. Over the 1985-1999 period mean N (0.34 ± 0.67 Wm–2) is lower than for the 2000-2012 period (0.62 ± 0.43 Wm–2, uncertainties at 90% confidence level) despite the slower rate of surface temperature rise since 2000. While the precise magnitude of N remains uncertain, the reconstruction captures interannual variability which is dominated by the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991 and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Monthly deseasonalized interannual variability in N generated by an ensemble of 9 climate model simulations using prescribed sea surface temperature and radiative forcings and from the satellite-based reconstruction is significantly correlated (r ∼ 0.6) over the 1985-2012 period.

The annual-cycle modulation of meridional asymmetry in ENSO’s atmospheric response and its dependence on ENSO zonal structure

Previous studies documented that a distinct southward shift of central-Pacific low-level wind anomalies occurring during the ENSO decaying phase, is caused by an interaction between the Western Pacific annual cycle and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The present study finds that the meridional movement of the central-Pacific wind anomalies appears only during traditional Eastern-Pacific (or EP) El Niño events rather than in Central-Pacific (CP) El Niño events in which sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are confined to the central Pacific. The zonal structure of ENSO-related SST anomalies therefore has an important effect on meridional asymmetry in the associated atmospheric response and its modulation by the annual cycle. In contrast to EP El Niño events, the SST anomalies of CP El Niño events extend further west towards to the warm pool region with its climatological warm SSTs. In the warm pool region, relatively small SST anomalies thus are able to excite convection anomalies on both sides of the equator, even with a meridionally asymmetric SST background state. Therefore, almost meridionally symmetric precipitation and wind anomalies are observed over the central Pacific during the decaying phase of CP El Niño events. The SST anomaly pattern of La Niña events is similar to CP El Niño events with a reversed sign. Accordingly, no distinct southward displacement of the atmospheric response occurs over the central Pacific during the La Niña decaying phase. These results have important implications for ENSO climate impacts over East Asia, since the anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific is an integral part of the annual cycle-modulated ENSO response.

The Met Office Global Coupled model 2.0 (GC2) configuration

The latest coupled configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (Global Coupled configuration 2, GC2) is presented. This paper documents the model components which make up the configuration (although the scientific description of these components is detailed elsewhere) and provides a description of the coupling between the components. The performance of GC2 in terms of its systematic errors is assessed using a variety of diagnostic techniques. The configuration is intended to be used by the Met Office and collaborating institutes across a range of timescales, with the seasonal forecast system (GloSea5) and climate projection system (HadGEM) being the initial users. In this paper GC2 is compared against the model currently used operationally in those two systems. Overall GC2 is shown to be an improvement on the configurations used currently, particularly in terms of modes of variability (e.g. mid-latitude and tropical cyclone intensities, the Madden–Julian Oscillation and El Niño Southern Oscillation). A number of outstanding errors are identified with the most significant being a considerable warm bias over the Southern Ocean and a dry precipitation bias in the Indian and West African summer monsoons. Research to address these is ongoing.

Links between tropical Pacific seasonal, interannual and orbital variability during the Holocene

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual climate variability. However, it is unclear how ENSO has responded to external forcing, particularly orbitally induced changes in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle during the Holocene. Here we present a reconstruction of seasonal and interannual surface conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean from a network of high-resolution coral and mollusc records that span discrete intervals of the Holocene. We identify several intervals of reduced variance in the 2 to 7 yr ENSO band that are not in phase with orbital changes in equatorial insolation, with a notable 64% reduction between 5,000 and 3,000 years ago. We compare the reconstructed ENSO variance and seasonal cycle with that simulated by nine climate models that include orbital forcing, and find that the models do not capture the timing or amplitude of ENSO variability, nor the mid-Holocene increase in seasonality seen in the observations; moreover, a simulated inverse relationship between the amplitude of the seasonal cycle and ENSO-related variance in sea surface temperatures is not found in our reconstructions. We conclude that the tropical Pacific climate is highly variable and subject to millennial scale quiescent periods. These periods harbour no simple link to orbital forcing, and are not adequately simulated by the current generation of models.

ENSO and greenhouse warming

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant climate phenomenon affecting extreme weather conditions worldwide. Its response to greenhouse warming has challenged scientists for decades, despite model agreement on projected changes in mean state. Recent studies have provided new insights into the elusive links between changes in ENSO and in the mean state of the Pacific climate. The projected slow-down in Walker circulation is expected to weaken equatorial Pacific Ocean currents, boosting the occurrences of eastward-propagating warm surface anomalies that characterize observed extreme El Niño events. Accelerated equatorial Pacific warming, particularly in the east, is expected to induce extreme rainfall in the eastern equatorial Pacific and extreme equatorward swings of the Pacific convergence zones, both of which are features of extreme El Niño. The frequency of extreme La Niña is also expected to increase in response to more extreme El Niños, an accelerated maritime continent warming and surface-intensified ocean warming. ENSO-related catastrophic weather events are thus likely to occur more frequently with unabated greenhouse-gas emissions. But model biases and recent observed strengthening of the Walker circulation highlight the need for further testing as new models, observations and insights become available.

Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation is Earth’s most prominent source of interannual climate variability, alternating irregularly between El Niño and La Niña, and resulting in global disruption of weather patterns, ecosystems, fisheries and agriculture1, 2, 3, 4, 5. The 1998–1999 extreme La Niña event that followed the 1997–1998 extreme El Niño event6 switched extreme El Niño-induced severe droughts to devastating floods in western Pacific countries, and vice versa in the southwestern United States4, 7. During extreme La Niña events, cold sea surface conditions develop in the central Pacific8, 9, creating an enhanced temperature gradient from the Maritime continent to the central Pacific. Recent studies have revealed robust changes in El Niño characteristics in response to simulated future greenhouse warming10, 11, 12, but how La Niña will change remains unclear. Here we present climate modelling evidence, from simulations conducted for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (ref. 13), for a near doubling in the frequency of future extreme La Niña events, from one in every 23 years to one in every 13 years. This occurs because projected faster mean warming of the Maritime continent than the central Pacific, enhanced upper ocean vertical temperature gradients, and increased frequency of extreme El Niño events are conducive to development of the extreme La Niña events. Approximately 75% of the increase occurs in years following extreme El Niño events, thus projecting more frequent swings between opposite extremes from one year to the next.