Attribution of climate extreme events

There is a tremendous desire to attribute causes to weather and climate events that is often challenging from a physical standpoint. Headlines attributing an event solely to either human-induced climate change or natural variability can be misleading when both are invariably in play. The conventional attribution framework struggles with dynamically driven extremes because of the small signal-to-noise ratios and often uncertain nature of the forced changes. Here, we suggest that a different framing is desirable, which asks why such extremes unfold the way they do. Specifically, we suggest that it is more useful to regard the extreme circulation regime or weather event as being largely unaffected by climate change, and question whether known changes in the climate system's thermodynamic state affected the impact of the particular event. Some examples briefly illustrated include 'snowmaggedon' in February 2010, superstorm Sandy in October 2012 and supertyphoon Haiyan in November 2013, and, in more detail, the Boulder floods of September 2013, all of which were influenced by high sea surface temperatures that had a discernible human component.

Stakeholder perceptions of event attribution in the loss and damage debate

In 2013 the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) for loss and damage (L&D) associated with climate change impacts was established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). For scientists, L&D raises ques- tions around the extent that such impacts can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, which may generate complex results and be controversial in the policy arena. This is particularly true in the case of probabilistic event attribution (PEA) science, a new and rapidly evolving field that assesses whether changes in the probabilities of extreme events are attributable to GHG emissions. If the potential applications of PEA are to be considered responsibly, dialogue between scientists and policy makers is fundamental. Two key questions are considered here through a literature review and key stakeholder interviews with representatives from the science and policy sectors underpinning L&D. These provided the opportunity for in-depth insights into stakeholders’ views on firstly, how much is known and understood about PEA by those associated with the L&D debate? Secondly, how might PEA inform L&D and wider climate policy? Results show debate within the climate science community, and limited understanding among other stakeholders, around the sense in which extreme events can be attributed to climate change. However, stake- holders do identify and discuss potential uses for PEA in the WIM and wider policy, but it remains difficult to explore precise applications given the ambiguity surrounding L&D. This implies a need for stakeholders to develop greater understandings of alternative conceptions of L&D and the role of science, and also identify how PEA can best be used to support policy, and address associated challenges.

On the detection and attribution of gravity waves generated by the 20 March 2015 solar eclipse

Internal gravity waves are generated as adjustment radiation whenever a sudden change in forcing causes the atmosphere to depart from its large-scale balanced state. Such a forcing anomaly occurs during a solar eclipse, when the Moon’s shadow cools part of the Earth’s surface. The resulting atmospheric gravity waves are associated with pressure and temperature perturbations, which in principle are detectable both at the surface and aloft. In this study, surface pressure and temperature data from two UK sites at Reading and Lerwick are analysed for eclipse-driven gravity-wave perturbations during the 20 March 2015 solar eclipse over north-west Europe. Radiosonde wind data from the same two sites are also analysed using a moving parcel analysis method, to determine the periodicities of the waves aloft. On this occasion, the perturbations both at the surface and aloft are found not to be confidently attributable to eclipse-driven gravity waves. We conclude that the complex synoptic weather conditions over the UK at the time of this particular eclipse helped to mask any eclipse-driven gravity waves.

A common framework for approaches to extreme event attribution

The extent to which a given extreme weather or climate event is attributable to anthropogenic climate change is a question of considerable public interest. From a scientific perspective, the question can be framed in various ways, and the answer depends very much on the framing. One such framing is a risk-based approach, which answers the question probabilistically, in terms of a change in likelihood of a class of event similar to the one in question, and natural variability is treated as noise. A rather different framing is a storyline approach, which examines the role of the various factors contributing to the event as it unfolded, including the anomalous aspects of natural variability, and answers the question deterministically. It is argued that these two apparently irreconcilable approaches can be viewed within a common framework, where the most useful level of conditioning will depend on the question being asked and the uncertainties involved.

Interactions between climate change and land use change on biodiversity: attribution problems, risks, and opportunities

Global change drivers are known to interact in their effects on biodiversity, but much research to date ignores this complexity. As a consequence, there are problems in the attribution of biodiversity change to different drivers and, therefore, our ability to manage habitats and landscapes appropriately. Few studies explicitly acknowledge and account for interactive (i.e., nonadditive) effects of land use and climate change on biodiversity. One reason is that the mechanisms by which drivers interact are poorly understood. We evaluate such mechanisms, including interactions between demographic parameters, evolutionary trade-offs and synergies and threshold effects of population size and patch occupancy on population persistence. Other reasons for the lack of appropriate research are limited data availability and analytical issues in addressing interaction effects. We highlight the influence that attribution errors can have on biodiversity projections and discuss experimental designs and analytical tools suited to this challenge. Finally, we summarize the risks and opportunities provided by the existence of interaction effects. Risks include ineffective conservation management; but opportunities also arise, whereby the negative impacts of climate change on biodiversity can be reduced through appropriate land management as an adaptation measure. We hope that increasing the understanding of key mechanisms underlying interaction effects and discussing appropriate experimental and analytical designs for attribution will help researchers, policy makers, and conservation practitioners to better minimize risks and exploit opportunities provided by land use-climate change interactions.

Detection and attribution of human influence on regional precipitation

Understanding how human influence on climate is affecting precipitation around the world is immensely important for defining mitigation policies, and for adaptation planning. Yet despite increasing evidence for the influence of climate change on global patterns of precipitation, and expectations that significant changes in regional precipitation should have already occurred as a result of human influence on climate, compelling evidence of anthropogenic fingerprints on regional precipitation is obscured by observational and modelling uncertainties and is likely to remain so using current methods for years to come. This is in spite of substantial ongoing improvements in models, new reanalyses and a satellite record that spans over thirty years. If we are to quantify how human-induced climate change is affecting the regional water cycle, we need to consider novel ways of identifying the effects of natural and anthropogenic influences on precipitation that take full advantage of our physical expectations.

Attribution i moral och etik : hur tillskriver människor orsaker till beteenden?

Rapporten handlar om hur människor attribuerar, det vill säga tillskriver, orsaker till beteenden i moralbaserade situationer och om det finns skillnad i hur män och kvinnor attribuerar beteenden. För att undersöka hur människor attribuerar har man i denna undersökning låtit män och kvinnor göra bedömningar om varför man själv eller ”någon av samma ålder och kön” gör som de gör i specifika situationer. Detta gjordes i en enkät innehållande två situationer med vardera fyra orsaker som rangordnas efter hur troliga de är som anledning till vad som hände i situationen. Enligt resultaten finns det en signifikant skillnad i hur människor attribuerar beteenden men det beror på vilken situation de befinner sig i. Resultaten påvisar inte någon signifikant skillnad i hur män och kvinnor attribuerar sitt och andras beteenden.

Mapping Attribution Metadata to the Open Provenance Model

A description of a data item's provenance can be provided in dierent forms, and which form is best depends on the intended use of that description. Because of this, dierent communities have made quite distinct underlying assumptions in their models for electronically representing provenance. Approaches deriving from the library and archiving communities emphasise agreed vocabulary by which resources can be described and, in particular, assert their attribution (who created the resource, who modied it, where it was stored etc.) The primary purpose here is to provide intuitive metadata by which users can search for and index resources. In comparison, models for representing the results of scientific workflows have been developed with the assumption that each event or piece of intermediary data in a process' execution can and should be documented, to give a full account of the experiment undertaken. These occurrences are connected together by stating where one derived from, triggered, or otherwise caused another, and so form a causal graph. Mapping between the two approaches would be benecial in integrating systems and exploiting the strengths of each. In this paper, we specify such a mapping between Dublin Core and the Open Provenance Model. We further explain the technical issues to overcome and the rationale behind the approach, to allow the same method to apply in mapping similar schemes.

An empirical examination of the integration of causal attribution and social learning theories in achievement situations

Using path analysis, the present investigation sought to clarify possible operational linkages among constructs from social learning and attribution theories within the context of a self-esteem system. Subjects were 300 undergraduate university students who completed a measure of self-esteem and indicated expectancies for success and minimal goal levels for an experimental task. After completing the task and receiving feedback about their performance, subjects completed causal attribution and self-esteem questionnaires. Results revealed gender differences in the degree and strength of the proposed relations, but not in the mean levels of the variables studied. Results suggested that the integration of social learning and attribution theories within a single conceptual model provides a better understanding of students' behaviors and self-esteem in achievement situations.

'Initiators of Discursive Practices': Authorship, attribution, and intent in the debates between philosophes and anti-philosophes

This article focuses on the “social side” of pseudonymity—on how writers and readers compete to influence the critical destiny of a pseudonymous work. By analyzing pseudonymity and attribution in both the specific context of Voltaire’s 1760 staging of the play, Le café ou l’écossaise, and in larger debates in the emerging fields of anonymity, pseudonymity, and attribution studies, I hope to show how literary scholars at present can address the individuality of each pseudonymous case while not letting go of trans-historical, general problems of anonymous strategies. Voltaire’s use of multiple pseudonyms before and after releasing L’Ecossaise, a comédie sérieuse in which Voltaire attacks his enemy Elie-Cathérine Fréron, supports his philosophe friends at a crucial moment in history, and exemplifies his emerging taste for serious comedy and British drama calls into question traditional takes on pseudonymity, anonymity, and attribution by refusing to fit into the binary arguments of anonymous vs. attributed and authorial intent vs. the reader’s control.

Risk attribution of Campylobacter infection by age group using exposure modelling

Knowledge on the relative importance of alternative sources of human campylobacteriosis is important in order to implement effective disease prevention measures. The objective of this study was to assess the relative importance of three key exposure pathways (travelling abroad, poultry meat, pet contact) for different patient age groups in Switzerland. With a stochastic exposure model data on Campylobacter incidence for the years 2002-2007 were linked with data for the three exposure pathways and the results of a case-control study. Mean values for the population attributable fractions (PAF) over all age groups and years were 27% (95% CI 17-39) for poultry consumption, 27% (95% CI 22-32) for travelling abroad, 8% (95% CI 6-9) for pet contact and 39% (95% CI 25-50) for other risk factors. This model provided robust results when using data available for Switzerland, but the uncertainties remained high. The output of the model could be improved if more accurate input data are available to estimate the infection rate per exposure. In particular, the relatively high proportion of cases attributed to 'other risk factors' requires further attention.

Source attribution of human Campylobacter isolates by MLST and fla-typing and association of genotypes with quinolone resistance

Campylobacteriosis is the most frequent zoonosis in developed countries and various domestic animals can function as reservoir for the main pathogens Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli. In the present study we compared population structures of 730 C. jejuni and C. coli from human cases, 610 chicken, 159 dog, 360 pig and 23 cattle isolates collected between 2001 and 2012 in Switzerland. All isolates had been typed with multi locus sequence typing (MLST) and flaB-typing and their genotypic resistance to quinolones was determined. We used complementary approaches by testing for differences between isolates from different hosts with the proportion similarity as well as the fixation index and by attributing the source of the human isolates with Bayesian assignment using the software STRUCTURE. Analyses were done with MLST and flaB data in parallel and both typing methods were tested for associations of genotypes with quinolone resistance. Results obtained with MLST and flaB data corresponded remarkably well, both indicating chickens as the main source for human infection for both Campylobacter species. Based on MLST, 70.9% of the human cases were attributed to chickens, 19.3% to cattle, 8.6% to dogs and 1.2% to pigs. Furthermore we found a host independent association between sequence type (ST) and quinolone resistance. The most notable were ST-45, all isolates of which were susceptible, while for ST-464 all were resistant.