Investement appraisal in a deregulated electricity market

This thesis analyses the impact of deregulation on the theory and practice of investment decision making in the electricity sector and appraises the likely effects on its long term future inefficiency. Part I describes the market and its shortcomings in promoting an optimal generation margin and plant mix and in reducing prices through competition. A full size operational model is developed to simulate hour by hour operation of the market and analyse its features. A relationship is established between the SMP and plant mix and between the LOLP and plant margin and it is shown bow a theoretical optimum can be derived when the combined LOLP payments and the capital costs of additional generation reach a minimum. A comparison of prices against an idealised bulk supply tariff is used to show how energy prices have risen some 12% in excess of what might have occurred under the CEGB regime. This part concludes with proposals to improve the marlconsumer response is simulated .The concept of transmission uplift is developed and the operational model is extended to include transmission constraints and then used to establish monthly incremental transmission constraint cost functions. It is shown how these can be used to appraise investment options and optimally plan outages. Part 4 concludes by discussing the regulatory framework and its limitations in improving efficiency or encouraging the optimum levels of investment. The principal findings of the thesis are reviewed and potential market improvement are described. This part concludes with a discussion of alternative market structures and likely future developments.

Effects of ocean acidification on the swimming ability, development and biochemical responses of sand smelt larvae

Ocean acidification, recognized as a major threat to marine ecosystems, has developed into one of the fastest growing fields of research in marine sciences. Several studies on fish larval stages point to abnormal behaviours, malformations and increased mortality rates as a result of exposure to increased levels of CO2. However, other studies fail to recognize any consequence, suggesting species-specific sensitivity to increased levels of CO2, highlighting the need of further research. In this study we investigated the effects of exposure to elevated pCO2 on behaviour, development, oxidative stress and energy metabolism of sand smelt larvae, Atherina presbyter. Larvae were caught at Arrábida Marine Park (Portugal) and exposed to different pCO2 levels (control: 600 µatm, pH = 8.03; medium: 1000 µatm, pH = 7.85; high: 1800 µatm, pH = 7.64) up to 15 days, after which critical swimming speed (Ucrit), morphometric traits and biochemical biomarkers were determined. Measured biomarkers were related with: 1) oxidative stress-superoxide dismutase and catalase enzyme activities, levels of lipid peroxidation and DNA damage, and levels of superoxide anion production; 2) energy metabolism - total carbohydrate levels, electron transport system activity, lactate dehydrogenase and isocitrate dehydrogenase enzyme activities. Swimming speed was not affected by treatment, but exposure to increasing levels of pCO2 leads to higher energetic costs and morphometric changes, with larger larvae in high pCO2 treatment and smaller larvae in medium pCO2 treatment. The efficient antioxidant response capacity and increase in energetic metabolism only registered at the medium pCO2 treatment may indicate that at higher pCO2 levels the capacity of larvae to restore their internal balance can be impaired. Our findings illustrate the need of using multiple approaches to explore the consequences of future pCO2 levels on organisms.

Efficient discovery of immune response targets by cyclical refinement of QSAR models of peptide binding

Peptides that induce and recall T-cell responses are called T-cell epitopes. T-cell epitopes may be useful in a subunit vaccine against malaria. Computer models that simulate peptide binding to MHC are useful for selecting candidate T-cell epitopes since they minimize the number of experiments required for their identification. We applied a combination of computational and immunological strategies to select candidate T-cell epitopes. A total of 86 experimental binding assays were performed in three rounds of identification of HLA-All binding peptides from the six preerythrocytic malaria antigens. Thirty-six peptides were experimentally confirmed as binders. We show that the cyclical refinement of the ANN models results in a significant improvement of the efficiency of identifying potential T-cell epitopes. (C) 2001 by Elsevier Science Inc.

Contribution to an efficient transmission of information to the textile fashion consumer and the influence in sustainable attitudes

The concepts involved in sustainable textile fashion, demanding good knowledge about raw materials, processes, end use properties and circuits amongst others, are able to determine the way the textile product is designed and the behavior of the consumer, regarding life style and buying decisions. The textile product`s life integrates raw materials, their processing, distribution, use by the consumer and destination of the product after useful lifetime, this is, his complete life cycle. It is very important to recognize the power of the consumer to influence parameters related to sustainability, namely when he decides how, when and why he buys and afterwards by the attitudes taken during and after use. The conscious act of consumption involves ethical, ecological and technical knowledge in which the concern is overall lifecycle of the fashion product and not exclusively aesthetic and symbolic values strongly related with its ephemeral nature. The present work proposes the classification of textile products by means of an innovative label aiming to establish a rating related to the Life of Fashion Products, by using parameters considered with especial impact in lifecycle, as textile fibers, processing conditions, generated wastes, commercialization circuits, durability and cleaning procedures. This label for sustainable fashion products aims to assist the stakeholders with informed attitudes and correct decisions in order to promote the objectives of sustainable fashion near designers, consumers and industrial experts.

Selective accumulation of mature DC-Lamp+ dendritic cells in tumor sites is associated with efficient T-cell-mediated antitumor response and control of metastatic dissemination in melanoma.

The clinical relevance of dendritic cells (DCs) at the tumor site remains a matter of debate concerning their role in the generation of effective antitumor immunity in human cancers. We performed a comprehensive immunohistochemical analysis using a panel of DC-specific antibodies on regressing tumor lesions and sentinel lymph nodes (SLNs) in melanoma patients. Here we show in a case report involving spontaneous regression of metastatic melanoma that the accumulation of DC-Lamp+ DCs, clustered with tumor cells and lymphocytes, is associated with local expansion of antigen-specific memory effector CTLs. These findings were extended in a series of 19 melanoma-positive SLNs and demonstrated a significant correlation between the density of DC-Lamp+ DC infiltrates in SLNs with the absence of metastasis in downstream lymph nodes. This study, albeit performed in a limited series of patients, points to a pivotal role of mature DCs in the local expansion of efficient antitumor T-cell-mediated immune responses at the initial sites of metastasis and may have important implications regarding the prognosis, staging, and immunotherapy of melanoma patients.

Efficient transduction of dendritic cells and induction of a T-cell response by third-generation lentivectors.

In order to induce a therapeutic T lymphocyte response, recombinant viral vaccines are designed to target professional antigen-presenting cells (APC) such as dendritic cells (DC). A key requirement for their use in humans is safe and efficient gene delivery. The present study assesses third-generation lentivectors with respect to their ability to transduce human and mouse DC and to induce antigen-specific CD8+ T-cell responses. We demonstrate that third-generation lentivectors transduce DC with a superior efficiency compared to adenovectors. The transfer of DC transduced with a recombinant lentivector encoding an antigenic epitope resulted in a strong specific CD8+ T-cell response in mice. The occurrence of lower proportions of nonspecifically activated CD8+ cells suggests a lower antivector immunity of lentivector compared to adenovector. Thus, lentivectors, in addition to their promise for gene therapy of brain disorders might also be suitable for immunotherapy.

Mobility based energy efficient and multi-sink algorithms for consumer home networks

With the fast development of the Internet, wireless communications and semiconductor devices, home networking has received significant attention. Consumer products can collect and transmit various types of data in the home environment. Typical consumer sensors are often equipped with tiny, irreplaceable batteries and it therefore of the utmost importance to design energy efficient algorithms to prolong the home network lifetime and reduce devices going to landfill. Sink mobility is an important technique to improve home network performance including energy consumption, lifetime and end-to-end delay. Also, it can largely mitigate the hot spots near the sink node. The selection of optimal moving trajectory for sink node(s) is an NP-hard problem jointly optimizing routing algorithms with the mobile sink moving strategy is a significant and challenging research issue. The influence of multiple static sink nodes on energy consumption under different scale networks is first studied and an Energy-efficient Multi-sink Clustering Algorithm (EMCA) is proposed and tested. Then, the influence of mobile sink velocity, position and number on network performance is studied and a Mobile-sink based Energy-efficient Clustering Algorithm (MECA) is proposed. Simulation results validate the performance of the proposed two algorithms which can be deployed in a consumer home network environment.

Efficient biometric and password based mutual authentication for consumer USB mass storage devices

A Universal Serial Bus (USB) Mass Storage Device (MSD), often termed a USB flash drive, is ubiquitously used to store important information in unencrypted binary format. This low cost consumer device is incredibly popular due to its size, large storage capacity and relatively high transfer speed. However, if the device is lost or stolen an unauthorized person can easily retrieve all the information. Therefore, it is advantageous in many applications to provide security protection so that only authorized users can access the stored information. In order to provide security protection for a USB MSD, this paper proposes a session key agreement protocol after secure user authentication. The main aim of this protocol is to establish session key negotiation through which all the information retrieved, stored and transferred to the USB MSD is encrypted. This paper not only contributes an efficient protocol, but also does not suffer from the forgery attack and the password guessing attack as compared to other protocols in the literature. This paper analyses the security of the proposed protocol through a formal analysis which proves that the information is stored confidentially and is protected offering strong resilience to relevant security attacks. The computational cost and communication cost of the proposed scheme is analyzed and compared to related work to show that the proposed scheme has an improved tradeoff for computational cost, communication cost and security.

Environmental consciousness, economic gain and consumer choice of energy efficient appliances in Thailand, China and India

In developing economies, consumption of electricity in residential and commercial sectors increased with economic development. In order to identify the factors for effective facilitation of standard and labeling programs, this article explores factors that affect consumer choice to energy-efficient products. Main findings are as follows: (1)Consumers in Thailand shows the highest awareness to environmental friendly concepts, followed by India and China.(2) Chosen labeled products include air-conditioners, TVs, refrigerators and washing machines, but not some popular products such as ceiling fans, electric fans or mobile phones. (3) Consumer who has higher energy conservation perception will buy energy efficient products.(4) Consumers in China, India and Thailand are sensitive to energy efficiency of products, primarily because they lead to less expenditure on electricity. (5) Labeling works to make levels of the energy efficiency of products more visible and thus helped consumers to choose the products.

Next Generation of Energy Residential Gateways for Demand Response and Dynamic Pricing

Predictions about electric energy needs, based on current electric energy models, forecast that the global energy consumption on Earth for 2050 will double present rates. Using distributed procedures for control and integration, the expected needs can be halved. Therefore implementation of Smart Grids is necessary. Interaction between final consumers and utilities is a key factor of future Smart Grids. This interaction is aimed to reach efficient and responsible energy consumption. Energy Residential Gateways (ERG) are new in-building devices that will govern the communication between user and utility and will control electric loads. Utilities will offer new services empowering residential customers to lower their electric bill. Some of these services are Smart Metering, Demand Response and Dynamic Pricing. This paper presents a practical development of an ERG for residential buildings.

Dynamic Response Optimization of Vehicles through Efficient Multibody Formulations and Automatic Differentiation Techniques

El diseño y desarrollo de sistemas de suspensión para vehículos se basa cada día más en el diseño por ordenador y en herramientas de análisis por ordenador, las cuales permiten anticipar problemas y resolverlos por adelantado. El comportamiento y las características dinámicas se calculan con precisión, bajo coste, y recursos y tiempos de cálculo reducidos. Sin embargo, existe una componente iterativa en el proceso, que requiere la definición manual de diseños a través de técnicas “prueba y error”. Esta Tesis da un paso hacia el desarrollo de un entorno de simulación eficiente capaz de simular, analizar y evaluar diseños de suspensiones vehiculares, y de mejorarlos hacia la solución optima mediante la modificación de los parámetros de diseño. La modelización mediante sistemas multicuerpo se utiliza aquí para desarrollar un modelo de autocar con 18 grados de libertad, de manera detallada y eficiente. La geometría y demás características de la suspensión se ajustan a las del vehículo real, así como los demás parámetros del modelo. Para simular la dinámica vehicular, se utiliza una formulación multicuerpo moderna y eficiente basada en las ecuaciones de Maggi, a la que se ha incorporado un visor 3D. Así, se consigue simular maniobras vehiculares en tiempos inferiores al tiempo real. Una vez que la dinámica está disponible, los análisis de sensibilidad son cruciales para una optimización robusta y eficiente. Para ello, se presenta una técnica matemática que permite derivar las variables dinámicas dentro de la formulación, de forma algorítmica, general, con la precisión de la maquina, y razonablemente eficiente: la diferenciación automática. Este método propaga las derivadas con respecto a las variables de diseño a través del código informático y con poca intervención del usuario. En contraste con otros enfoques en la bibliografía, generalmente particulares y limitados, se realiza una comparación de librerías, se desarrolla una formulación híbrida directa-automática para el cálculo de sensibilidades, y se presentan varios ejemplos reales. Finalmente, se lleva a cabo la optimización de la respuesta dinámica del vehículo citado. Se analizan cuatro tipos distintos de optimización: identificación de parámetros, optimización de la maniobrabilidad, optimización del confort y optimización multi-objetivo, todos ellos aplicados al diseño del autocar. Además de resultados analíticos y gráficos, se incluyen algunas consideraciones acerca de la eficiencia. En resumen, se mejora el comportamiento dinámico de vehículos por medio de modelos multicuerpo y de técnicas de diferenciación automática y optimización avanzadas, posibilitando un ajuste automático, preciso y eficiente de los parámetros de diseño. ABSTRACT Each day, the design and development of vehicle suspension systems relies more on computer-aided design and computer-aided engineering tools, which allow anticipating the problems and solving them ahead of time. Dynamic behavior and characteristics are thus simulated accurately and inexpensively with moderate computational times and resources. There is, however, an iterative component in the process, which involves the manual definition of designs in a trialand-error manner. This Thesis takes a step towards the development of an efficient simulation framework capable of simulating, analyzing and evaluating vehicle suspension designs, and automatically improving them by varying the design parameters towards the optimal solution. The multibody systems approach is hereby used to model a three-dimensional 18-degrees-of-freedom coach in a comprehensive yet efficient way. The suspension geometry and characteristics resemble the ones from the real vehicle, as do the rest of vehicle parameters. In order to simulate vehicle dynamics, an efficient, state-of-the-art multibody formulation based on Maggi’s equations is employed, and a three-dimensional graphics viewer is developed. As a result, vehicle maneuvers can be simulated faster than real-time. Once the dynamics are ready, a sensitivity analysis is crucial for a robust optimization. To that end, a mathematical technique is introduced, which allows differentiating the dynamic variables within the multibody formulation in a general, algorithmic, accurate to machine precision, and reasonably efficient way: automatic differentiation. This method propagates the derivatives with respect to the design parameters throughout the computer code, with little user interaction. In contrast with other attempts in the literature, mostly not generalpurpose, a benchmarking of libraries is carried out, a hybrid direct-automatic differentiation approach for the computation of sensitivities is developed, and several real-life examples are analyzed. Finally, a design optimization process of the aforementioned vehicle is carried out. Four different types of dynamic response optimization are presented: parameter identification, handling optimization, ride comfort optimization and multi-objective optimization; all of which are applied to the design of the coach example. Together with analytical and visual proof of the results, efficiency considerations are made. In summary, the dynamic behavior of vehicles is improved by using the multibody systems approach, along with advanced differentiation and optimization techniques, enabling an automatic, accurate and efficient tuning of design parameters.

Hydromorphic change and biotic response challenge efficient river rehabilitation

From an extensive literature review and meta-analyses, this study has i) identified the most important hydromorphological process related to river degradation and rehabilitation, ii) conceptually linked it to evolutionary and functional response chains of aquatic biota, and iii) provided empirical evidence and ecological data for the respective hydromorphological requirements, preferences and limitations of aquatic plants, benthic invertebrates, lampreys, and freshwater fishes.