Partial correlation : Network analysis

The final year project came to us as an opportunity to get involved in a topic which has appeared to be attractive during the learning process of majoring in economics: statistics and its application to the analysis of economic data, i.e. econometrics.Moreover, the combination of econometrics and computer science is a very hot topic nowadays, given the Information Technologies boom in the last decades and the consequent exponential increase in the amount of data collected and stored day by day. Data analysts able to deal with Big Data and to find useful results from it are verydemanded in these days and, according to our understanding, the work they do, although sometimes controversial in terms of ethics, is a clear source of value added both for private corporations and the public sector. For these reasons, the essence of this project is the study of a statistical instrument valid for the analysis of large datasets which is directly related to computer science: Partial Correlation Networks.The structure of the project has been determined by our objectives through the development of it. At first, the characteristics of the studied instrument are explained, from the basic ideas up to the features of the model behind it, with the final goal of presenting SPACE model as a tool for estimating interconnections in between elements in large data sets. Afterwards, an illustrated simulation is performed in order to show the power and efficiency of the model presented. And at last, the model is put into practice by analyzing a relatively large data set of real world data, with the objective of assessing whether the proposed statistical instrument is valid and useful when applied to a real multivariate time series. In short, our main goals are to present the model and evaluate if Partial Correlation Network Analysis is an effective, useful instrument and allows finding valuable results from Big Data.As a result, the findings all along this project suggest the Partial Correlation Estimation by Joint Sparse Regression Models approach presented by Peng et al. (2009) to work well under the assumption of sparsity of data. Moreover, partial correlation networks are shown to be a very valid tool to represent cross-sectional interconnections in between elements in large data sets.The scope of this project is however limited, as there are some sections in which deeper analysis would have been appropriate. Considering intertemporal connections in between elements, the choice of the tuning parameter lambda, or a deeper analysis of the results in the real data application are examples of aspects in which this project could be completed.To sum up, the analyzed statistical tool has been proved to be a very useful instrument to find relationships that connect the elements present in a large data set. And after all, partial correlation networks allow the owner of this set to observe and analyze the existing linkages that could have been omitted otherwise.

Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in North-West Russia - Finnish Business Opportunities

Tutkimus suomalaisten yritysten liiketoimintamahdollisuuksista hiilidoksidipäästöjen vähentämisen parissa Luoteis-Venäjällä.

Evolution and perspective of the temperate fruit crops in São Paulo state, Brazil

This work was carried out to show the current situation of the temperate fruit crops in São Paulo state, Brazil, with an emphasis on grapes, peaches, apples, plums, nectarines and pears crops. Current economic data of crops, major growing regions, main cultivars produced, as well as the new technologies generated by research are presented. Regarding the grape crop, a decrease in the national production as well as in the major growing states was observed. The main grapes growing centers in São Paulo state are presented, highlighting its peculiarities regarding cultivars, cultural crop management and current researches. A trend has been observed toward increasing Niagara Rosada grape growing area rather than the fine table grape cultivars. It was also observed the adoption of cultural practices, aiming to increase productivity, to improve the fruits quality and to reduce manpower necessity. In terms of stone fruits, peaches are the most widely cultivated in São Paulo state, followed by plums and nectarines. Both for stone fruits crop and for apples and pears crops, statistics and comments are presented on the crops evolution as well as the current researches results and the requirements of these fruit crops in São Paulo state, Brazil.

Factor Analysis of a Large DSGE Model

We study the workings of the factor analysis of high-dimensional data using artificial series generated from a large, multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The objective is to use the DSGE model as a laboratory that allow us to shed some light on the practical benefits and limitations of using factor analysis techniques on economic data. We explain in what sense the artificial data can be thought of having a factor structure, study the theoretical and finite sample properties of the principal components estimates of the factor space, investigate the substantive reason(s) for the good performance of di¤usion index forecasts, and assess the quality of the factor analysis of highly dissagregated data. In all our exercises, we explain the precise relationship between the factors and the basic macroeconomic shocks postulated by the model.

Indicateurs de durabilité urbaine selon une approche épidémiologique : la ville de Maringá, au Brésil

Les analyses spatiales et statistiques ont été réalisées avec les logiciels ArcView et SPSS

Les relations franco-japonaises de 1859 à 1895.

L’histoire des relations franco-japonaises est source de bien des surprises pour les historiens, ces deux pays n’ayant, à première vue, que peu de raisons de se rapprocher. La France du Second Empire est l’une des premières puissances à se rendre au Japon et elle démontre rapidement un vif intérêt pour le développement du Japon. Dès la signature des premiers traités en 1859, la présence française se développe pour atteindre son sommet quelques années plus tard. Malgré les changements de régime au Japon et en France, cette présence restera forte jusqu’au début des années 1880, avant de décliner. Qu’est-ce qui explique cet intérêt? Et, surtout, qu’est-ce qui explique le désintérêt de la France après les années 1880? Il n’y a que quelques auteurs qui ont tenté d’y trouver des réponses, et celles-ci sont, à notre point de vue, peu concluantes: soit la France agit pour faire grandir son prestige, soit elle agit en fonction de ses représentants. Nous tenterons dans le présent travail de cerner et, si possible, de trouver en utilisant une variété de sources françaises une autre cause plus convaincante comme explication de la position française au Japon. Serait-ce le commerce qui a motivé la France au Japon, notamment à cause de la crise du ver à soie? Serait-ce la religion, avec toute la question des persécutions des chrétiens? Ou encore, est-ce une raison plus globale liée à la colonisation de l’Indochine? Afin d’y répondre, nous avons étudié avec minutie les archives du gouvernement français ainsi que les données économiques de l’époque, afin de cerner l’importance qu’ont eue certaines raisons, telles la crise de la soie, les persécutions religieuses et la présence française en Indochine, dans les décisions du gouvernement français.

Econometrics as an Academic Discipline in Higher Education: An Exploratory Study of the Need, Relevance and Significance

Econometrics is a young science. It developed during the twentieth century in the mid-1930’s, primarily after the World War II. Econometrics is the unification of statistical analysis, economic theory and mathematics. The history of econometrics can be traced to the use of statistical and mathematics analysis in economics. The most prominent contributions during the initial period can be seen in the works of Tinbergen and Frisch, and also that of Haavelmo in the 1940's through the mid 1950's. Right from the rudimentary application of statistics to economic data, like the use of laws of error through the development of least squares by Legendre, Laplace, and Gauss, the discipline of econometrics has later on witnessed the applied works done by Edge worth and Mitchell. A very significant mile stone in its evolution has been the work of Tinbergen, Frisch, and Haavelmo in their development of multiple regression and correlation analysis. They used these techniques to test different economic theories using time series data. In spite of the fact that some predictions based on econometric methodology might have gone wrong, the sound scientific nature of the discipline cannot be ignored by anyone. This is reflected in the economic rationale underlying any econometric model, statistical and mathematical reasoning for the various inferences drawn etc. The relevance of econometrics as an academic discipline assumes high significance in the above context. Because of the inter-disciplinary nature of econometrics (which is a unification of Economics, Statistics and Mathematics), the subject can be taught at all these broad areas, not-withstanding the fact that most often Economics students alone are offered this subject as those of other disciplines might not have adequate Economics background to understand the subject. In fact, even for technical courses (like Engineering), business management courses (like MBA), professional accountancy courses etc. econometrics is quite relevant. More relevant is the case of research students of various social sciences, commerce and management. In the ongoing scenario of globalization and economic deregulation, there is the need to give added thrust to the academic discipline of econometrics in higher education, across various social science streams, commerce, management, professional accountancy etc. Accordingly, the analytical ability of the students can be sharpened and their ability to look into the socio-economic problems with a mathematical approach can be improved, and enabling them to derive scientific inferences and solutions to such problems. The utmost significance of hands-own practical training on the use of computer-based econometric packages, especially at the post-graduate and research levels need to be pointed out here. Mere learning of the econometric methodology or the underlying theories alone would not have much practical utility for the students in their future career, whether in academics, industry, or in practice This paper seeks to trace the historical development of econometrics and study the current status of econometrics as an academic discipline in higher education. Besides, the paper looks into the problems faced by the teachers in teaching econometrics, and those of students in learning the subject including effective application of the methodology in real life situations. Accordingly, the paper offers some meaningful suggestions for effective teaching of econometrics in higher education

Observatorio del acuerdo comercial alianza pacífico en Colombia: oportunidades de exportación para Colombia a Chile, México y Perú

El desarrollo del presente proyecto de investigación, identifica, consolida, analiza datos económicos y el comportamiento del comercio exterior de Colombia, Chile, Perú y México dentro de la evolución del Acuerdo Alianza Pacífico durante los años 2011 - 2013. El estudio permitirá tener una visión más concreta, sobre la viabilidad que este bloque comercial representa para Colombia y mostrará cual ha sido el desempeño del país dentro del acuerdo con base a las exportaciones e importaciones efectuadas con los demás países miembros de la alianza. A lo largo del estudio, se analizará la balanza comercial de los treinta y dos (32) departamentos colombianos con los países miembros del acuerdo Alianza del Pacifico (Chile, México y Perú) entre 2011 – 2013. A partir de la obtención y análisis de resultados de tipo cuantitativo y cualitativo como el valor las exportaciones e importaciones, se hace un diagnóstico del comportamiento de la comercialización de productos por parte de los departamentos con destino y desde de Chile, México y Perú. Este análisis nos permitirá identificar cuáles son los bienes de mayor exportación y su participación dentro de las transacciones comerciales del acuerdo Alianza Pacifico. Con base a los datos que se recopilen, será posible analizar la situación y el papel que juega Colombia actualmente dentro del acuerdo y así identificar así las oportunidades, debilidades y posibles consecuencias, producto de la firma de este tratado. Finalmente, con la presente investigación se buscará iniciar el Observatorio del Acuerdo Alianza Pacifico, el cual se creará con fines investigativos, facilitando el seguimiento a la evolución de dicho acuerdo. A través del observatorio se lograra saber cuáles son los comportamientos en materia económica, tales como balanza comercial, inversión extranjera, movilidad, entre otros de este bloque de integración. Adicionalmente, será posible y analizar el comportamiento de los principales sectores económicos y los departamentos involucrados en este proceso, en términos comerciales.

Inserción de Colombia en el mercado de China, hacia un tratado de libre comercio Colombia – China.

El presente trabajo busca evaluar las oportunidades y amenazas que se pueden generar a causa de la creación de un Tratado de Libre Comercio con China, identificando así el impacto que tendrían dichas alianzas sobre el desarrollo económico del país y sobre la competitividad en la región. A partir del análisis de las relaciones comerciales y particularidades de las dos economías, se tendrá en cuenta variables como la reducción del crecimiento económico de China que ha venido experimentando en los últimos años respecto al crecimiento que ha venido ganando poco a poco Colombia. Para ello, se realizó una investigación con base en información relevante de los últimos 5 años, obtenida de diferentes fuentes. Entre estas se destaca el Plan Nacional de Desarrollo (2014- 2018), estadísticas del DANE, portales de análisis económico, entrevistas, revistas indexadas, entre otras. Este compendio de fuentes permitirá evaluar el comportamiento actual de la economía en Colombia y China, así como de las perspectivas económicas de cada país para los próximos años en relación al comercio exterior. Con esto se logrará evaluar la factibilidad, así como las ventajas y desventajas que debería asumir Colombia al firmar un Tratado de Libre Comercio con su segundo socio comercial más importante.

Construction of a historical Water Pollution Index for the Mersey Basin

The Mersey Basin has been significantly polluted for over 200 years. However, there is a lack of quantitative historical water quality data as effective water quality monitoring and data recording only began 30-40 years ago. This paper assesses water pollution in the Mersey Basin using a Water Pollution Index constructed from social and economic data. Methodology, output and the difficulties involved with validation are discussed. With the limited data input available the index approximately reproduces historical water quality. The paper illustrates how historical studies of environmental water quality may provide valuable identification of factors responsible for pollution and a marker set for contemporary and future water quality issues in the context of the past. This is an issue of growing research interest.

Small towns as 'sub-poles' in English rural development: Investigating rural-urban linkages using sub-regional social accounting matrices

This paper uses spatial economic data from four small English towns to measure the strength of economic integration between town and hinterland and to estimate the magnitude of town-hinterland spill-over effects. Following estimation of local integration indicators and inter-locale flows, sub-regional social accounting matrices (SAMs) are developed to estimate the strength of local employment and output multipliers for various economic sectors. The potential value of a town as a 'sub-pole' in local economic development is shown to be dependent on structural differences in the local economy, such as the particular mix of firms within towns. Although the multipliers are generally small, indicating a low level of local linkages, some sectors, particularly financial services and banking, show consistently higher multipliers for both output and employment. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The location of executive suites and business centers in the United States: an exploratory analysis

Increasingly, corporate occupiers seek more flexible ways of meeting their accommodation needs. One consequence of this process has been the growth of the executive suite, serviced office or business centre market. This paper, the final report of a research project funded by the Real Estate Research Institute, focuses upon the geographical distribution of business centers offering executive suites within the US. After a brief review of the development of the market, the paper examines the availability of data, provides basic descriptive statistics of the distribution of executive suites by state and by metropolitan statistical area and then attempts to model the distribution using demographic and socio-economic data at MSA level. The distribution reflects employment in key growth sectors and the position of the MSA in the urban hierarchy. An appendix presents a preliminary view of the global distribution of suites.

The socioeconomics of food crop production and climate change vulnerability: a global scale quantitative analysis of how grain crops are sensitive to drought

Many studies warn that climate change may undermine global food security. Much work on this topic focuses on modelling crop-weather interactions but these models do not generally account for the ways in which socio-economic factors influence how harvests are affected by weather. To address this gap, this paper uses a quantitative harvest vulnerability index based on annual soil moisture and grain production data as the dependent variables in a Linear Mixed Effects model with national scale socio-economic data as independent variables for the period 1990-2005. Results show that rice, wheat and maize production in middle income countries were especially vulnerable to droughts. By contrast, harvests in countries with higher investments in agriculture (e.g higher amounts of fertilizer use) were less vulnerable to drought. In terms of differences between the world's major grain crops, factors that made rice and wheat crops vulnerable to drought were quite consistent, whilst those of maize crops varied considerably depending on the type of region. This is likely due to the fact that maize is produced under very different conditions worldwide. One recommendation for reducing drought vulnerability risks is coordinated development and adaptation policies, including institutional support that enables farmers to take proactive action.

Chaos in foreign exchange markets: a sceptical view

This paper tests directly for deterministic chaos in a set of ten daily Sterling-denominated exchange rates by calculating the largest Lyapunov exponent. Although in an earlier paper, strong evidence of nonlinearity has been shown, chaotic tendencies are noticeably absent from all series considered using this state-of-the-art technique. Doubt is cast on many recent papers which claim to have tested for the presence of chaos in economic data sets, based on what are argued here to be inappropriate techniques.

The global-scale impacts of climate change: the QUEST-GSI project

This paper introduces the special issue of Climatic Change on the QUEST-GSI project, a global-scale multi-sectoral assessment of the impacts of climate change. The project used multiple climate models to characterise plausible climate futures with consistent baseline climate and socio-economic data and consistent assumptions, together with a suite of global-scale sectoral impacts models. It estimated impacts across sectors under specific SRES emissions scenarios, and also constructed functions relating impact to change in global mean surface temperature. This paper summarises the objectives of the project and its overall methodology, outlines how the project approach has been used in subsequent policy-relevant assessments of future climate change under different emissions futures, and summarises the general lessons learnt in the project about model validation and the presentation of multi-sector, multi-region impact assessments and their associated uncertainties to different audiences.