Anticipatory governance for social-ecological resilience

Anticipation is increasingly central to urgent contemporary debates, from climate change to the global economic crisis. Anticipatory practices are coming to the forefront of political, organizational, and citizens’ society. Research into anticipation, however, has not kept pace with public demand for insights into anticipatory practices, their risks and uses. Where research exists, it is deeply fragmented. This paper seeks to identify how anticipation is defined and understood in the literature and to explore the role of anticipatory practice to address individual, social, and global challenges. We use a resilience lens to examine these questions. We illustrate how varying forms of anticipatory governance are enhanced by multi-scale regional networks and technologies and by the agency of individuals, drawing from an empirical case study on regional water governance of Mälaren, Sweden. Finally, we discuss how an anticipatory approach can inform adaptive institutions, decision making, strategy formation, and societal resilience.

Decision making to support an integrated infrastructure supply chain industrial ecological approach within public private partnerships

Supply chains are complex adaptive systems for which final performance depends upon numerous interdependent decisions made by numerous firms which synthesise inputs from various resources systems.  The dynamic interdependent behaviour of social, economic, material and informational resource systems within eco-industrial settings that support the built environment life cycle supply chains can be studied at the supply chain level.  The impact of megaprojects is significant and holds promise to explore the impact of decisions on various systems as it combines project and system boundaries.  Megaoprojects considered as major events within systems can produce critical revolutionary impacts on the systems within which they are embedded.  The decisions that are made on megaprojects are central to risk management.  typically major infrastructure projects are procured through a form of public private partnership (PPP).  The core principle of PPP is value for money which refers to the best available outcome attempting to take account of all benefits, costs and risks over the whole life of the procurement.  In this paper the focus is on Australia where there has been considerable acitivity in the use of PPPs.  With recent national infrastucture packages proposed to stimulate the economy due to the global financial crisis, decision modelling on risks is a revelant and critical matter not only in practice but also in the research community.  PPPs encourage the whole-of-lifecycle approach in the procurement and management of public sector assets by transparently recognising the costs and risks associated with the whole life of the required service or facility, thus integrated whole of life supply chains can be considered.  By creating a single point of responsibility for an entire project from inception through operation, a strong incentive is created for thinking about the effects that a design or construction decision will have on the effectiveness and efficiency of managing and maintaining a facility during its operational life.  The decision to procure holistic supply chains becomes a much more viable commercial reality in the PPP environment than previously considered in the usual commercial construction spot transactional approach.  These types of decisions tend to be imprecise, approximate and complex requireing justification and reasoning logic rather than the classical 'truth' logic.  The purpose of this paper is to develop a theoretical decision framework which combines interdependency and multi-values logic for supply chain procurement modelling.

Predator control promotes invasive dominated ecological states

Invasive species are regarded as one of the top five drivers of the global extinction crisis. In response, extreme measures have been applied in an attempt to control or eradicate invasives, with little success overall. We tested the idea that state shifts to invasive dominance are symptomatic of losses in ecosystem resilience, due to the suppression of apex predators. This concept was investigated in Australia where the high rate of mammalian extinctions is largely attributed to the destructive influence of invasive species. Intensive pest control is widely applied across the continent, simultaneously eliminating Australia’s apex predator, the dingo (Canis lupus dingo). We show that predator management accounts for shifts between two main ecosystem states. Lethal control fractures dingo social structure and leads to bottom-up driven increases in invasive mesopredators and herbivores. Where control is relaxed, dingoes re-establish top–down regulation of ecosystems, allowing for the recovery of biodiversity and productivity.

Beyond species loss: the extinction of ecological interactions in a changing world

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Integrated planning for ecological urban regeneration

Considering that the vast majority of housing stock existing in 2011 will be used to satisfy residential needs in the year 2020 and beyond, ecological urban regeneration appears clearly as the key issue in relation to global urban sustainability for the most part of this century. Thus, if the 1992 Rio Summit identified the urban environment as the main arena where the global environmental crisis should be fought, 20 years later we must emphasize that it is mainly to the real cities and territories around us now where we should address our attention

Macroeconomics, economic crisis and electoral outcomes: A national European pool

An abundance of comparative survey research argues the presence of economic voting as an individual force in European elections, thereby refuting a possible ecological fallacy. But the hypothesis of economic voting at the aggregate level, with macroeconomics influencing overall electoral outcomes, seems less sure. Indeed, there might be a micrological fallacy at work, with the supposed individual economic vote effect not adding up to a national electoral effect after all. Certainly that would account for the spotty evidence linking macroeconomics and national election outcomes. We examine the possibility of a micrological fallacy through rigorous analysis of a large time-series cross-sectional dataset of European nations. From these results, it becomes clear that the macroeconomy strongly moves national election outcomes, with hard times punishing governing parties, and good times rewarding them. Further, this economy-election connection appears asymmetric, altering under economic crisis. Indeed, we show that economic crisis, defined as negative growth, has much greater electoral effects than positive economic growth. Hard times clearly make governments more accountable to their electorates.

Macroeconomics, economic crisis and electoral outcomes: A national European pool

An abundance of comparative survey research argues the presence of economic voting as an individual force in European elections, thereby refuting a possible ecological fallacy. But the hypothesis of economic voting at the aggregate level, with macroeconomics influencing overall electoral outcomes, seems less sure. Indeed, there might be a micrological fallacy at work, with the supposed individual economic vote effect not adding up to a national electoral effect after all. Certainly that would account for the spotty evidence linking macroeconomics and national election outcomes. We examine the possibility of a micrological fallacy through rigorous analysis of a large time-series cross-sectional dataset of European nations. From these results, it becomes clear that the macroeconomy strongly moves national election outcomes, with hard times punishing governing parties, and good times rewarding them. Further, this economy-election connection appears asymmetric, altering under economic crisis. Indeed, we show that economic crisis, defined as negative growth, has much greater electoral effects than positive economic growth. Hard times clearly make governments more accountable to their electorates.

Towards an Ecological Pedagogy: Body Movement for Ecological Consciousness

This paper examines the moving body as a vehicle for raising ecological consciousness. Due to the modern over-preoccupation with the pursuit of rational aims, human interactions with the surrounding environment increasingly lack conscious awareness. Consequently, in the modern world people tend to lack an ecological consciousness. Nevertheless, the human body is a rich reservoir of ecological significance. From birth, humans are woven into tremendous interconnection with the world. However, humans thrive when their sensitivity to the physical world exists in harmony with their ability to pursue their rational aims. It is the combination of these characteristics that enables humans to survive in capricious surroundings and prosper in a wide array of contexts. Today, the human species faces an unprecedented crisis that threatens to collapse the reciprocality of the ecological bonds bolstering the prosperity of all worldly beings. This paper proposes that it is no longer a rational strategy for people to remain inattentive to their embodied ecological resonance, and that the moving body is an adequate pedagogical site for raising ecological consciousness. Ritualized body movements derived from Chinese traditional cultivation systems such as Taijiquan could orient practitioners to reestablish a perceptual intimacy with the larger cosmic world, thereby raising their ecological consciousness.

Green Economy and Employment: employment potential of the ecological transition in Spain

The Green Economy offers real possibilities for productive innovation, economic growth and employment creation in Spain. These three factors are critical to facilitate the necessary change in the productive model to overcome the crisis. However, the measures taken by the current Conservative government have moved in the opposite direction: significant cutting in incentives for renewable, increasing tax burden on renewable energy production to self-consumption and privatizing public spaces of social and environmental interest. This hinders the achievement of the environmental objectives of the Europe 2020 strategy. A strategy that is born already in itself highly limited, unambitious and subordinated to the interests of energy oligopolies and the imperatives of the Stability and Growth Pact (Maastricht) and the Austerity policies imposed from EU institutions to overcome the 2008 financial crisis. So the Ecological Transition goes further, claiming a substantially change in Economic Policy away form the increasing commodification proposed by the Green Economy. Despite these limitations, young and unemployed people have much to gain from a comprehensive development of environmental industries. Therefore, innovative-sustainable plans, investment and training in green sectors are necessary to make easier the transition from a services low-valued economy to an innovative and sustainable model to make our country an environmental reference in Europe.

¿Fue la crisis política del Occidente musulmán del siglo XIII debida a un cambio climático? Una aproximación histórica al fin del Periodo Cálido Medieval

Durante el siglo XIII se produjo una sucesión de revueltas que supuso la desaparición del Imperio almohade y su sustitución por poderes regionales en al-Andalus, el Magreb y el Magreb al-Aqsà. La historiografía ha presentado el surgimiento y pugna entre estos poderes como un fenómeno social, político e, incluso, cultural y religioso, con el que se ha podido explicar su aniquilación o marginalización. Este trabajo pretende contextualizar los hechos desde una perspectiva medioambiental, de forma que la desintegración del califato almohade, el surgimiento de aquellos poderes y la progresión de los reinos cristianos en la península ibérica puedan entenderse desde una visión global de cambio climático y una posible crisis agrícola.

Dealing with crisis: Early childhood teachers perceived role in supporting children

The study explored how two experienced early childhood teachers support children dealing with crisis in their home environment, namely divorce, domestic violence and imprisonment of parents. The focus was on the relationship between the educational environment (organisation of space, time and relationships in an ecological perspective) and children's emotional well-being. This study builds on studies in Portugal about emotional well-being (Portugal & Laevers, 2010) and about the impact on children from imprisoned parents (Afonso, 2005, Kominsky, Pinto & Miyashiro, 2005, Tavares, 2011), domestic violence (Batista, 2014, Lisboa et al., 2002, Ribeiro, 2010) and divorce (Martons, 2010, Rego, 2008). The theoretical framework was weaved with Laevers (2004) concepts of emotional well-being and involvement and Siraj-Blatchford (2002) and Figueiredo (2013) perspective of pedagogy as including different dimensions of which the educational environment is essential. In-depth interviews with both teachers and some observations of their classroom dynamics were analysed for emerging cross themes in this qualitative study. Anonymity was preserved throughout the study by the use of codes. The study was presented to the teachers and questions were presented in advance. Both teachers expressed preference for adapting existing pedagogical tools (e.g. the classroom diary) and the daily dynamic to support children instead of using special interventions. Domestic violence was seen as the most problematic situation for its repercussions. Attention to emotional well-being, a strong relationship with the child and the families was highlighted. Pedagogy was described as answering different challenges, with a strong emphasis on children's participation. Thematising teachers' pedagogical knowledge is important.

Review article : ecological approach in studying the relation of perception-action : review of the theoretical and empirical data

In daily activities people are using a number of available means for the achievement of balance, such as the use of hands and the co-ordination of balance. One of the approaches that explains this relationship between perception and action is the ecological theory that is based on the work of a) Bernstein (1967), who imposed the problem of ‘the degrees of freedom’, b) Gibson (1979), who referred to the theory of perception and the way which the information is received from the environment in order for a certain movement to be achieved, c) Newell (1986), who proposed that movement can derive from the interaction of the constraints that imposed from the environment and the organism and d) Kugler, Kelso and Turvey (1982), who showed the way which “the degrees of freedom” are connected and interact. According to the above mentioned theories, the development of movement co-ordination can result from the different constraints that imposed into the organism-environment system. The close relation between the environmental and organismic constraints, as well as their interaction is responsible for the movement system that will be activated. These constraints apart from shaping the co-ordination of specific movements can be a rate limiting factor, to a certain degree, in the acquisition and mastering of a new skill. This frame of work can be an essential tool for the study of catching an object (e.g., a ball). The importance of this study becomes obvious due to the fact that movements that involved in catching an object are representative of every day actions and characteristic of the interaction between perception and action.