Absolute and relative abundance estimates of Australian east cost humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae)

The humpback whales that migrate along the east coast of Australia were hunted to near-extinction in the 1950s and early 1960s. Two independent series of land-based surveys conducted over the last 25 years during the whales’ northward migration along the Australian coastline have demonstrated a rapid increase in the size of the population. In 2004 we conducted a survey of the migratory population as a continuation of these series of surveys. Two methods of data analysis were used in line with the previous surveys, both for calculation of absolute and relative abundance. We consider the best estimates for 2004 to be 7,090 ± 660 (95% CI) whales with an annual rate of increase of 10.6 ± 0.5% (95% CI) for 1987 – 2004. The rate of increase agrees with those previously obtained for this population and demonstrates the continuation of a strong post-exploitation recovery. While there are still some uncertainties concerning the absolute abundance estimate and structure of this population, the rate of annual increase should be independent of these and highly robust.

Orbitally induced oscillations in the East Antarctic ice sheet at the Oligocene/Miocene boundary

Between 34 and 15 million years (Myr) ago, when planetary temperatures were 3-4 degreesC warmer than at present and atmospheric CO2 concentrations were twice as high as today(1), the Antarctic ice sheets may have been unstable(2-7). Oxygen isotope records from deep-sea sediment cores suggest that during this time fluctuations in global temperatures and high-latitude continental ice volumes were influenced by orbital cycles(8-10). But it has hitherto not been possible to calibrate the inferred changes in ice volume with direct evidence for oscillations of the Antarctic ice sheets(11). Here we present sediment data from shallow marine cores in the western Ross Sea that exhibit well dated cyclic variations, and which link the extent of the East Antarctic ice sheet directly to orbital cycles during the Oligocene/Miocene transition (24.1-23.7 Myr ago). Three rapidly deposited glaci-marine sequences are constrained to a period of less than 450 kyr by our age model, suggesting that orbital influences at the frequencies of obliquity (40 kyr) and eccentricity (125 kyr) controlled the oscillations of the ice margin at that time. An erosional hiatus covering 250 kyr provides direct evidence for a major episode of global cooling and ice-sheet expansion about 23.7 Myr ago, which had previously been inferred from oxygen isotope data (Mil event(5)).

Peacebuilding in East Timor

This essay analyses some of the political, economic and social challenges of East Timer's transition to independence. It scrutinizes the ethical dimensions of building peace in a territory devastated by the combined effect of Indonesia's colonial occupation and the violent militia attacks of September 1999. The most difficult task ahead does not lie in the physical rebuilding of the territory-gargantuan as it may be-but in the more intricate and long-term rehabilitation of a traumatized society. The latter involves competing Timorese factions as well as a range of international actors, including the United Nations Transitional Authority, foreign governments, business institutions and various multilateral and bilateral donors. each having their own organizational leitmotifs and policy priorities. If not managed carefully, the reconstruction process could further exacerbate existing societal tensions and complicate the starch for peace and reconciliation. The essay identifies a number of crucial components necessary to counter such risks, including the need to promote popular participation in the rebuilding process. Without the legitimacy created by strong community involvement and grassroots participation in decision making, the task of national reconstruction may well become overwhelmed by conflict.