Earthquakes, influenza and cycles of Indian kala-azar.

It is suggested that previous data indicate 3 major epidemics of kala-azar in Assam between 1875 and 1950, with inter-epidemic periods of 30-45 and 20 years. This deviates from the popular view of regular cycles with a 10-20 year period. A deterministic mathematical model of kala-azar is used to find the simplest explanation for the timing of the 3 epidemics, paying particular attention to the role of extrinsic (drugs, natural disasters, other infectious diseases) versus intrinsic (host and vector dynamics, birth and death rates, immunity) processes in provoking the second. We conclude that, whilst widespread influenza in 1918-1919 may have magnified the second epidemic, intrinsic population processes provide the simplest explanation for its timing and synchrony throughout Assam. The model also shows that the second inter-epidemic period is expected to be shorter than the first, even in the absence of extrinsic agents, and highlights the importance of a small fraction of patients becoming chronically infectious (with post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis) after treatment during an epidemic.

Influence of fluid viscosity on the response of buried structures in earthquakes

The use of high viscous pore fluid has been widely established to match the rate of excess pore pressure generation and subsequent dissipation in dynamic centrifuge tests. The appropriate viscosity is linked to the geometric and gravity scaling factors which corresponds to the use of pore fluid of 'N' cSt in a 'N'g centrifuge test. The use of either water (1 cSt) or pore fluid lower than 'N' cSt can influence the behaviour of soil liquefaction in a centrifuge test. In this paper, the floatation of a tunnel following soil liquefaction is investigated using pore fluids with two different viscosities. The results show that the uplift displacement of the tunnel is significantly affected by the pore fluid viscosity. © 2010 Taylor & Francis Group, London.

Measuring shaft friction during earthquakes

The failure of piled foundations has been observed in many earthquake events. The manner in which a pile is able to support its applied superstructure loading during an earthquake is not yet fully understood, particularly with respect to the shaft friction capacity. In this paper, new pile group is presented which has been instrumented to measure the shaft friction distribution along the length of a pile. In addition, this pile group is able to measure the pore pressures directly beneath the pile tips. The pile group was tested in dynamic centrifuge experiments and showed differing shaft friction behaviour in dense and loose soil layers as well as strong dilation beneath the pile tips at the start of earthquake loading. A reduction in shaft friction was observed after the earthquake due to soil down-drag. © 2010 Taylor & Francis Group, London.

The rocking response of large flexible structures to earthquakes

The rocking response of structures subjected to strong ground motions is a problem of 'several scales'. While small structures are sensitive to acceleration pulses acting successively, large structures are more significantly affected by coherent low frequency components of ground motion. As a result, the rocking response of large structures is more stable and orderly, allowing effective isolation from the ground without imminent danger of overturning. This paper aims to characterize and predict the maximum rocking response of large and flexible structures to earthquakes using an idealized structural model. To achieve this, the maximum rocking demand caused by different earthquake records was evaluated using several ground motion intensity measures. Pulse-type records which typically have high peak ground velocity and lower frequency content caused large rocking amplitudes, whereas non-pulse type records caused random rocking motion confined to small rocking amplitudes. Coherent velocity pulses were therefore identified as the primary cause of significant rocking motion. Using a suite of pulse-type ground motions, it was observed that idealized wavelets fitted to velocity pulses can adequately describe the rocking response of large structures. Further, a parametric analysis demonstrates that pulse shape parameters affect the maximum rocking response significantly. Based on these two findings, a probabilistic analysis method is proposed for estimating the maximum rocking demand to pulse-type earthquakes. The dimensionless demand maps, produced using these methods, have predictive power in the near-field provided that pulse period and amplitude can be estimated a priori. Use of this method within a probabilistic seismic demand analysis framework is briefly discussed. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

Universal Quake Statistics: From Compressed Nanocrystals to Earthquakes.

Slowly-compressed single crystals, bulk metallic glasses (BMGs), rocks, granular materials, and the earth all deform via intermittent slips or "quakes". We find that although these systems span 12 decades in length scale, they all show the same scaling behavior for their slip size distributions and other statistical properties. Remarkably, the size distributions follow the same power law multiplied with the same exponential cutoff. The cutoff grows with applied force for materials spanning length scales from nanometers to kilometers. The tuneability of the cutoff with stress reflects "tuned critical" behavior, rather than self-organized criticality (SOC), which would imply stress-independence. A simple mean field model for avalanches of slipping weak spots explains the agreement across scales. It predicts the observed slip-size distributions and the observed stress-dependent cutoff function. The results enable extrapolations from one scale to another, and from one force to another, across different materials and structures, from nanocrystals to earthquakes.

Volcanoes and earthquakes.

Analiza las causas de los terremotos y las erupciones volcánicas, la forma en que pueden ser detectados, y cómo sobrevivir a ellos. Ofrece tres experimentos con explicaciones paso a paso para el aprendizaje por descubrimiento. Los experimentos hacen hincapié en la necesidad del niño de investigar. Hay glosario, bibliografía y direcciones de páginas webs para ampliar información.