Predicting the arrival of high-speed solar wind streams at Earth using the STEREO Heliospheric Imagers

High-speed solar wind streams modify the Earth's geomagnetic environment, perturbing the ionosphere, modulating the flux of cosmic rays into the Earth atmosphere, and triggering substorms. Such activity can affect modern technological systems. To investigate the potential for predicting the arrival of such streams at Earth, images taken by the Heliospheric Imager (HI) on the STEREO-A spacecraft have been used to identify the onsets of high-speed solar wind streams from observations of regions of increased plasma concentrations associated with corotating interaction regions, or CIRs. In order to confirm that these transients were indeed associated with CIRs and to study their average properties, arrival times predicted from the HI images were used in a superposed epoch analysis to confirm their identity in near-Earth solar wind data obtained by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft and to observe their influence on a number of salient geophysical parameters. The results are almost identical to those of a parallel superposed epoch analysis that used the onset times of the high-speed streams derived from east/west deflections in the ACE measurements of solar wind speed to predict the arrival of such streams at Earth, assuming they corotated with the Sun with a period of 27 days. Repeating the superposed epoch analysis using restricted data sets demonstrates that this technique can provide a timely prediction of the arrival of CIRs at least 1 day ahead of their arrival at Earth and that such advanced warning can be provided from a spacecraft placed 40° ahead of Earth in its orbit.

Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model – HadGEM2

We describe here the development and evaluation of an Earth system model suitable for centennial-scale climate prediction. The principal new components added to the physical climate model are the terrestrial and ocean ecosystems and gas-phase tropospheric chemistry, along with their coupled interactions. The individual Earth system components are described briefly and the relevant interactions between the components are explained. Because the multiple interactions could lead to unstable feedbacks, we go through a careful process of model spin up to ensure that all components are stable and the interactions balanced. This spun-up configuration is evaluated against observed data for the Earth system components and is generally found to perform very satisfactorily. The reason for the evaluation phase is that the model is to be used for the core climate simulations carried out by the Met Office Hadley Centre for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), so it is essential that addition of the extra complexity does not detract substantially from its climate performance. Localised changes in some specific meteorological variables can be identified, but the impacts on the overall simulation of present day climate are slight. This model is proving valuable both for climate predictions, and for investigating the strengths of biogeochemical feedbacks.

Reconstruction of geomagnetic activity and near-Earth interplanetary conditions over the past 167 yr – Part 1: A new geomagnetic data composite

We present a new composite of geomagnetic activity which is designed to be as homogeneous in its construction as possible. This is done by only combining data that, by virtue of the locations of the source observatories used, have similar responses to solar wind and IMF (interplanetary magnetic field) variations. This will enable us (in Part 2, Lockwood et al., 2013a) to use the new index to reconstruct the interplanetary magnetic field, B, back to 1846 with a full analysis of errors. Allowance is made for the effects of secular change in the geomagnetic field. The composite uses interdiurnal variation data from Helsinki for 1845–1890 (inclusive) and 1893–1896 and from Eskdalemuir from 1911 to the present. The gaps are filled using data from the Potsdam (1891–1892 and 1897–1907) and the nearby Seddin observatories (1908–1910) and intercalibration achieved using the Potsdam–Seddin sequence. The new index is termed IDV(1d) because it employs many of the principles of the IDV index derived by Svalgaard and Cliver (2010), inspired by the u index of Bartels (1932); however, we revert to using one-day (1d) means, as employed by Bartels, because the use of near-midnight values in IDV introduces contamination by the substorm current wedge auroral electrojet, giving noise and a dependence on solar wind speed that varies with latitude. The composite is compared with independent, early data from European-sector stations, Greenwich, St Petersburg, Parc St Maur, and Ekaterinburg, as well as the composite u index, compiled from 2–6 stations by Bartels, and the IDV index of Svalgaard and Cliver. Agreement is found to be extremely good in all cases, except two. Firstly, the Greenwich data are shown to have gradually degraded in quality until new instrumentation was installed in 1915. Secondly, we infer that the Bartels u index is increasingly unreliable before about 1886 and overestimates the solar cycle amplitude between 1872 and 1883 and this is amplified in the proxy data used before 1872. This is therefore also true of the IDV index which makes direct use of the u index values.

Reconstruction of geomagnetic activity and near-Earth interplanetary conditions over the past 167 yr - Part 4: Near-Earth solar wind speed, IMF, and open solar flux

In the concluding paper of this tetralogy, we here use the different geomagnetic activity indices to reconstruct the near-Earth interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and solar wind flow speed, as well as the open solar flux (OSF) from 1845 to the present day. The differences in how the various indices vary with near-Earth interplanetary parameters, which are here exploited to separate the effects of the IMF and solar wind speed, are shown to be statistically significant at the 93% level or above. Reconstructions are made using four combinations of different indices, compiled using different data and different algorithms, and the results are almost identical for all parameters. The correction to the aa index required is discussed by comparison with the Ap index from a more extensive network of mid-latitude stations. Data from the Helsinki magnetometer station is used to extend the aa index back to 1845 and the results confirmed by comparison with the nearby St Petersburg observatory. The optimum variations, using all available long-term geomagnetic indices, of the near-Earth IMF and solar wind speed, and of the open solar flux, are presented; all with ±2sigma� uncertainties computed using the Monte Carlo technique outlined in the earlier papers. The open solar flux variation derived is shown to be very similar indeed to that obtained using the method of Lockwood et al. (1999).

Solar wind-magnetosphere coupling functions on timescales of 1 day to 1 year

There are no direct observational methods for determining the total rate at which energy is extracted from the solar wind by the magnetosphere. In the absence of such a direct measurement, alternative means of estimating the energy available to drive the magnetospheric system have been developed using different ionospheric and magnetospheric indices as proxies for energy consumption and dissipation and thus the input. The so-called coupling functions are constructed from the parameters of the interplanetary medium, as either theoretical or empirical estimates of energy transfer, and the effectiveness of these coupling functions has been evaluated in terms of their correlation with the chosen index. A number of coupling functions have been studied in the past with various criteria governing event selection and timescale. The present paper contains an exhaustive survey of the correlation between geomagnetic activity and the near-Earth solar wind and two of the planetary indices at a wide variety of timescales. Various combinations of interplanetary parameters are evaluated with careful allowance for the effects of data gaps in the interplanetary data. We show that the theoretical coupling, P�, function first proposed by Vasyliunas et al. is superior at all timescales from 1-day to 1-year.

The day the solar wind nearly died

On 11 May 1999, the density of the solar wind dropped almost to zero. Space scientists are now giving their first reports of this rare opportunity to study the complex relationship between the Sun and Earth.

Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models

Observational analyses of running 5-year ocean heat content trends (Ht) and net downward top of atmosphere radiation (N) are significantly correlated (r~0.6) from 1960 to 1999, but a spike in Ht in the early 2000s is likely spurious since it is inconsistent with estimates of N from both satellite observations and climate model simulations. Variations in N between 1960 and 2000 were dominated by volcanic eruptions, and are well simulated by the ensemble mean of coupled models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We find an observation-based reduction in N of -0.31±0.21 Wm-2 between 1999 and 2005 that potentially contributed to the recent warming slowdown, but the relative roles of external forcing and internal variability remain unclear. While present-day anomalies of N in the CMIP5 ensemble mean and observations agree, this may be due to a cancellation of errors in outgoing longwave and absorbed solar radiation.

A carbon isotope challenge to the snowball Earth

The snowball Earth hypothesis postulates that the planet was entirely covered by ice for millions of years in the Neoproterozoic era, in a self-enhanced glaciation caused by the high albedo of the ice-covered planet. In a hard-snowball picture, the subsequent rapid unfreezing resulted from an ultra-greenhouse event attributed to the buildup of volcanic carbon dioxide (CO(2)) during glaciation(1). High partial pressures of atmospheric CO(2) (p(CO2); from 20,000 to 90,000 p. p. m. v.) in the aftermath of the Marinoan glaciation (similar to 635 Myr ago) have been inferred from both boron and triple oxygen isotopes(2,3). These p(CO2) values are 50 to 225 times higher than present-day levels. Here, we re-evaluate these estimates using paired carbon isotopic data for carbonate layers that cap Neoproterozoic glacial deposits and are considered to record post-glacial sea level rise(1). The new data reported here for Brazilian cap carbonates, together with previous ones for time-equivalent units(4-8), provide p(CO2) estimates lower than 3,200 p. p. m. v.-and possibly as low as the current value of similar to 400 p. p. m. v. Our new constraint, and our reinterpretation of the boron and triple oxygen isotope data, provide a completely different picture of the late Neoproterozoic environment, with low atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and oxygen that are inconsistent with a hard-snowball Earth.

Earth-based spirituality in Australian outdoor & environmental studies

Australian Outdoor & Environmental Studies (OES), under the curriculum framework of Health and Physical Education (HPE), is influenced by dominant discourses of androcentric perspectives of wilderness. As such, inherent adventure hegemonies impact the type and depth of relationship that can emerge with nature. Through an eco-feminist lens, I will draw on the stories of three adolescent students and their encounters with spiritual pedagogy, namely meditation practices within Australian OES. These student stories, collected during a 5-day hiking expedition in a remote coastal environment in southern Victoria, demonstrated that ideas of ‘femininity’ are subjugated and inferiorised to ideas of ‘masculinity’ in the outdoors. Therefore, I call for OES pedagogical approaches to work towards a more robust integration of ‘masculine’ and ‘feminine’ psyches towards values of deep ecology. In this paper I will draw on Merleau - Ponty’s emotional embodiment theories and Jung’s psychological theories, to argue for a reshaping of OES pedagogical approaches that more thoroughly include spiritual and emotional inquiry, in order to create deeper connections to the natural world in the context of contemporary global environmental challenges.

A comprehensive study of the 26th December 2004 Sumatra earthquake: possible implications on Earth rotation and investigations on the coseismic and postseismic stress diffusion associated with the seismic rupture

In this work a multidisciplinary study of the December 26th, 2004 Sumatra earthquake has been carried out. We have investigated both the effect of the earthquake on the Earth rotation and the stress field variations associated with the seismic event. In the first part of the work we have quantified the effects of a water mass redistribution associated with the propagation of a tsunami wave on the Earth’s pole path and on the length-of-day (LOD) and applied our modeling results to the tsunami following the 2004 giant Sumatra earthquake. We compared the result of our simulations on the instantaneous rotational axis variations with some preliminary instrumental evidences on the pole path perturbation (which has not been confirmed yet) registered just after the occurrence of the earthquake, which showed a step-like discontinuity that cannot be attributed to the effect of a seismic dislocation. Our results show that the perturbation induced by the tsunami on the instantaneous rotational pole is characterized by a step-like discontinuity, which is compatible with the observations but its magnitude turns out to be almost one hundred times smaller than the detected one. The LOD variation induced by the water mass redistribution turns out to be not significant because the total effect is smaller than current measurements uncertainties. In the second part of this work of thesis we modeled the coseismic and postseismic stress evolution following the Sumatra earthquake. By means of a semi-analytical, viscoelastic, spherical model of global postseismic deformation and a numerical finite-element approach, we performed an analysis of the stress diffusion following the earthquake in the near and far field of the mainshock source. We evaluated the stress changes due to the Sumatra earthquake by projecting the Coulomb stress over the sequence of aftershocks taken from various catalogues in a time window spanning about two years and finally analyzed the spatio-temporal pattern. The analysis performed with the semi-analytical and the finite-element modeling gives a complex picture of the stress diffusion, in the area under study, after the Sumatra earthquake. We believe that the results obtained with the analytical method suffer heavily for the restrictions imposed, on the hypocentral depths of the aftershocks, in order to obtain the convergence of the harmonic series of the stress components. On the contrary we imposed no constraints on the numerical method so we expect that the results obtained give a more realistic description of the stress variations pattern.

Forward modelling of petrological crust-forming processes on the early Earth

Tonalite-trondhjemite-granodiorite (TTG) gneisses form up to two-thirds of the preserved Archean continental crust and there is considerable debate regarding the primary magmatic processes of the generation of these rocks. The popular theories indicate that these rocks were formed by partial melting of basaltic oceanic crust which was previously metamorphosed to garnet-amphibolite and/or eclogite facies conditions either at the base of thick oceanic crust or by subduction processes.rnThis study investigates a new aspect regarding the source rock for Archean continental crust which is inferred to have had a bulk compostion richer in magnesium (picrite) than present-day basaltic oceanic crust. This difference is supposed to originate from a higher geothermal gradient in the early Archean which may have induced higher degrees of partial melting in the mantle, which resulted in a thicker and more magnesian oceanic crust. rnThe methods used to investigate the role of a more MgO-rich source rock in the formation of TTG-like melts in the context of this new approach are mineral equilibria calculations with the software THERMOCALC and high-pressure experiments conducted from 10–20 kbar and 900–1100 °C, both combined in a forward modelling approach. Initially, P–T pseudosections for natural rock compositions with increasing MgO contents were calculated in the system NCFMASHTO (Na2O–CaO–FeO–MgO–Al2O3–SiO2–H2O–TiO2) to ascertain the metamorphic products from rocks with increasing MgO contents from a MORB up to a komatiite. A small number of previous experiments on komatiites showed the development of pyroxenite instead of eclogite and garnet-amphibolite during metamorphism and established that melts of these pyroxenites are of basaltic composition, thus again building oceanic crust instead of continental crust.rnThe P–T pseudosections calculated represent a continuous development of their metamorphic products from amphibolites and eclogites towards pyroxenites. On the basis of these calculations and the changes within the range of compositions, three picritic Models of Archean Oceanic Crust (MAOC) were established with different MgO contents (11, 13 and 15 wt%) ranging between basalt and komatiite. The thermodynamic modelling for MAOC 11, 13 and 15 at supersolidus conditions is imprecise since no appropriate melt model for metabasic rocks is currently available and the melt model for metapelitic rocks resulted in unsatisfactory calculations. The partially molten region is therfore covered by high-pressure experiments. The results of the experiments show a transition from predominantly tonalitic melts in MAOC 11 to basaltic melts in MAOC 15 and a solidus moving towards higher temperatures with increasing magnesium in the bulk composition. Tonalitic melts were generated in MAOC 11 and 13 at pressures up to 12.5 kbar in the presence of garnet, clinopyroxene, plagioclase plus/minus quartz (plus/minus orthopyroxene in the presence of quartz and at lower pressures) in the absence of amphibole but it could not be explicitly indicated whether the tonalitic melts coexisting with an eclogitic residue and rutile at 20 kbar do belong to the Archean TTG suite. Basaltic melts were generated predominantly in the presence of granulite facies residues such as amphibole plus/minus garnet, plagioclase, orthopyroxene that lack quartz in all MAOC compositions at pressures up to 15 kbar. rnThe tonalitic melts generated in MAOC 11 and 13 indicate that thicker oceanic crust with more magnesium than that of a modern basalt is also a viable source for the generation of TTG-like melts and therefore continental crust in the Archean. The experimental results are related to different geologic settings as a function of pressure. The favoured setting for the generation of early TTG-like melts at 15 kbar is the base of an oceanic crust thicker than existing today or by melting of slabs in shallow subduction zones, both without interaction of tonalic melts with the mantle. Tonalitic melts at 20 kbar may have been generated below the plagioclase stability by slab melting in deeper subduction zones that have developed with time during the progressive cooling of the Earth, but it is unlikely that those melts reached lower pressure levels without further mantle interaction.rn

A 20-day period standing oscillation in the northern winter stratosphere

Observations of the ozone profile by a ground-based microwave radiometer in Switzerland indicate a dominant 20-day oscillation in stratospheric ozone, possibly related to oscillations of the polar vortex edge during winter. For further understanding of the nature of the 20-day oscillation, the ozone data set of ERA Interim meteorological reanalysis is analyzed at the latitude belt of 47.5° N and in the time from 1979 to 2010. Spectral analysis of ozone time series at 7 hPa indicates that the 20-day oscillation is maximal at two locations: 7.5° E, 47.5° N and 60° E, 47.5° N. Composites of the stream function are derived for different phases of the 20-day oscillation of stratospheric ozone at 7 hPa in the Northern Hemisphere. The streamline at Ψ = −2 × 107 m2 s−1 is in the vicinity of the polar vortex edge. The other streamline at Ψ = 4 × 107 m2 s1 surrounds the Aleutian anticyclone and goes to the subtropics. The composites show 20-day period standing oscillations at the polar vortex edge and in the subtropics above Northern Africa, India, and China. The 20-day period standing oscillation above Aral Sea and India is correlated to the strength of the Aleutian anticyclone.

Earth gravity field recovery using GPS, GLONASS, and SLR satellites

The time variable Earth’s gravity field provides the information about mass transport within the system Earth, i.e., the relationship of mass transport between atmosphere, oceans, and land hydrology. We recover the low-degree parameters of the time variable gravity field using microwave observations from GPS and GLONASS satellites and from SLR data to five geodetic satellites, namely LAGEOS-1/2, Starlette, Stella, and AJISAI. GPS satellites are particularly sensitive to specific coefficients of the Earth's gravity field, because of the deep 2:1 orbital resonance with Earth rotation (two revolutions of the GPS satellites per sidereal day). The resonant coefficients cause, among other, a “secular” drift (actually periodic variations of very long periods) of the semi-major axes of up to 5.3 m/day of GPS satellites. We processed 10 years of GPS and GLONASS data using the standard orbit models from the Center of Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) with a simultaneous estimation of the Earth gravity field coefficients and other parameters, e.g., satellite orbit parameters, station coordinates, Earth rotation parameters, troposphere delays, etc. The weekly GNSS gravity solutions up to degree and order 4/4 are compared to the weekly SLR gravity field solutions. The SLR-derived geopotential coefficients are compared to monthly GRACE and CHAMP results.

REE and Hf distribution among mineral phases in the CV-CK clan : a way to explain present-day Hf isotopic variations in chondrites

Chondrites are among the most primitive objects in the Solar System and constitute the main building blocks of telluric planets. Among the radiochronometers currently used for dating geological events, Sm–Nd and Lu–Hf are both composed of refractory, lithophile element. They are thought to behave similarly as the parent elements (Sm and Lu) are generally less incompatible than the daughter elements (Nd and Hf) during geological processes. As such, their respective average isotopic compositions for the solar system should be well defined by the average of chondrites, called Chondritic Uniform Reservoir (CHUR). However, while the Sm–Nd isotopic system shows an actual spread of less than 4% in the average chondritic record, the Lu–Hf system shows a larger variation range of 28% [Bouvier A., Vervoort J. D. and Patchett P. J. (2008) The Lu–Hf and Sm–Nd isotopic composition of CHUR: Constraints from unequilibrated chondrites and implications for the bulk composition of terrestrial planets. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett.273, 48–57]. To better understand the contrast between Sm–Nd and Lu–Hf systems, the REE and Hf distribution among mineral phases during metamorphism of Karoonda (CK) and Vigarano-type (CV) carbonaceous chondrites has been examined. Mineral modes were determined from elemental mapping on a set of five CK chondrites (from types 3–6) and one CV3 chondrite. Trace-element patterns are obtained for the first time in all the chondrite-forming minerals of a given class (CK chondrites) as well as one CV3 sample. This study reveals that REE are distributed among both phosphates and silicates. Only 30–50% of Sm and Nd are stored in phosphates (at least in chondrites types 3–5); as such, they are not mobilized during early stages of metamorphism. The remaining fraction of Sm and Nd is distributed among the same mineral phases; these elements are therefore not decoupled during metamorphism. Of the whole-rock total of Lu, the fraction held in phosphate decreases significantly as the degree of metamorphism increases (30% for types 3 and 4, less than 5% in type 6). In contrast to Lu, Hf is mainly hosted by silicates with little contribution from phosphates throughout the CK metamorphic sequence. A significant part of Sm and Nd are stored in phosphates in types 3–5, and these elements behave similarly during CK chondrite metamorphism. That explains the robustness of the Sm/Nd ratios in chondrites through metamorphism, and the slight discrepancies observed in the present-day isotopic Nd values in chondrites. On the contrary, Lu and Hf are borne by several different minerals and consequently they are redistributed during metamorphism–induced recrystallization. The Lu/Hf ratios are therefore significantly disturbed during chondrites metamorphism, leading to the high discrepancies observed in present-day Hf isotopic values in chondrites.