A non-linear dynamic model for primates. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Extension of dynamic model of impulse behavior of concentrated grounds at high currents

A dynamic model which describes the impulse behavior of concentrated grounds at high currents is described in this paper. This model is an extension of previous models in that it can successfully account for the surge behavior of concentrated grounds over a much wider range of current densities. It is able to describe the well known effect of ionization of soil as well as the observed effect of discrete breakdowns and filamentary arc paths at much higher currents. Results of verification against experimental results are also presented.

A dynamic model for the activated sludge treatment of coke oven effluents

This is an Inter-Disciplinary Higher Degree (IHD) thesis about Water Pollution Control in the Iron and Steel Industry. After examining the compositions, and various treatment methods, for the major effluent streams from a typical Integrated Iron and Steel works, it was decided to concentrate investigative work on the activated-sludge treatment of coke-oven effluents. A mathematical model of this process was developed in an attempt to provide a tool for plant management that would enable improved performance, and enhanced control of Works Units. The model differs from conventional models in that allowance is made for the presence of two genera of microorganisms, each of which utilises a particular type of substrate as its energy source. Allowance is also made for the inhibitive effect of phenol on thiocyanate biodegradation, and for the self-toxicity of the bacteria when present in a high substrate concentration environment. The enumeration of the kinetic characteristics of the two groups of micro-organisms was shown to be of major importance. Laboratory experiments were instigated in an attempt to determine accurate values of these coefficients. The use of the Suspended Solids concentration was found to be too insensitive a measure of viable active mass. Other measures were investigated, and Adenosine Triphosphate concentration was chosen as the most effective measure of bacterial populations. Using this measure, a model was developed for phenol biodegradation from experimental results which implicated the possibility of storage of substate prior to metabolism. A model for thiocyanate biodegradation was also developed, although the experimental results indicate that much work is still required in this area.

A dynamic model of the hypoxia-inducible factor 1α (HIF-1α) network

Activation of the hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) pathway is a critical step in the transcriptional response to hypoxia. Although many of the key proteins involved have been characterised, the dynamics of their interactions in generating this response remain unclear. In the present study, we have generated a comprehensive mathematical model of the HIF-1a pathway based on core validated components and dynamic experimental data, and confirm the previously described connections within the predicted network topology. Our model confirms previous work demonstrating that the steps leading to optimal HIF-1a transcriptional activity require sequential inhibition of both prolyl- and asparaginyl-hydroxylases. We predict from our model (and confirm experimentally) that there is residual activity of the asparaginyl-hydroxylase FIH (factor inhibiting HIF) at low oxygen tension. Furthermore, silencing FIH under conditions where prolyl-hydroxylases are inhibited results in increased HIF-1a transcriptional activity, but paradoxically decreases HIF-1a stability. Using a core module of the HIF network and mathematical proof supported by experimental data, we propose that asparaginyl hydroxylation confers a degree of resistance upon HIF-1a to proteosomal degradation. Thus, through in vitro experimental data and in silico predictions, we provide a comprehensive model of the dynamic regulation of HIF-1a transcriptional activity by hydroxylases and use its predictive and adaptive properties to explain counter-intuitive biological observations.

Dynamic model development of adiabatic compressed air energy storage

The share of variable renewable energy in electricity generation has seen exponential growth during the recent decades, and due to the heightened pursuit of environmental targets, the trend is to continue with increased pace. The two most important resources, wind and insolation both bear the burden of intermittency, creating a need for regulation and posing a threat to grid stability. One possibility to deal with the imbalance between demand and generation is to store electricity temporarily, which was addressed in this thesis by implementing a dynamic model of adiabatic compressed air energy storage (CAES) with Apros dynamic simulation software. Based on literature review, the existing models due to their simplifications were found insufficient for studying transient situations, and despite of its importance, the investigation of part load operation has not yet been possible with satisfactory precision. As a key result of the thesis, the cycle efficiency at design point was simulated to be 58.7%, which correlated well with literature information, and was validated through analytical calculations. The performance at part load was validated against models shown in literature, showing good correlation. By introducing wind resource and electricity demand data to the model, grid operation of CAES was studied. In order to enable the dynamic operation, start-up and shutdown sequences were approximated in dynamic environment, as far as is known, the first time, and a user component for compressor variable guide vanes (VGV) was implemented. Even in the current state, the modularly designed model offers a framework for numerous studies. The validity of the model is limited by the accuracy of VGV correlations at part load, and in addition the implementation of heat losses to the thermal energy storage is necessary to enable longer simulations. More extended use of forecasts is one of the important targets of development, if the system operation is to be optimised in future.

DYNAMIC MODEL BASED STATE ESTIMATION IN A HEAVY DUTY DIESEL AFTERTREATMENT SYSTEM FOR ONBOARD DIAGNOSTICS AND CONTROLS

Estimating un-measurable states is an important component for onboard diagnostics (OBD) and control strategy development in diesel exhaust aftertreatment systems. This research focuses on the development of an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) based state estimator for two of the main components in a diesel engine aftertreatment system: the Diesel Oxidation Catalyst (DOC) and the Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) catalyst. One of the key areas of interest is the performance of these estimators when the catalyzed particulate filter (CPF) is being actively regenerated. In this study, model reduction techniques were developed and used to develop reduced order models from the 1D models used to simulate the DOC and SCR. As a result of order reduction, the number of states in the estimator is reduced from 12 to 1 per element for the DOC and 12 to 2 per element for the SCR. The reduced order models were simulated on the experimental data and compared to the high fidelity model and the experimental data. The results show that the effect of eliminating the heat transfer and mass transfer coefficients are not significant on the performance of the reduced order models. This is shown by an insignificant change in the kinetic parameters between the reduced order and 1D model for simulating the experimental data. An EKF based estimator to estimate the internal states of the DOC and SCR was developed. The DOC and SCR estimators were simulated on the experimental data to show that the estimator provides improved estimation of states compared to a reduced order model. The results showed that using the temperature measurement at the DOC outlet improved the estimates of the CO , NO , NO2 and HC concentrations from the DOC. The SCR estimator was used to evaluate the effect of NH3 and NOX sensors on state estimation quality. Three sensor combinations of NOX sensor only, NH3 sensor only and both NOX and NH3 sensors were evaluated. The NOX only configuration had the worst performance, the NH3 sensor only configuration was in the middle and both the NOX and NH3 sensor combination provided the best performance.

UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?

Block factor methods offer an attractive approach to forecasting with many predictors. These extract the information in these predictors into factors reflecting different blocks of variables (e.g. a price block, a housing block, a financial block, etc.). However, a forecasting model which simply includes all blocks as predictors risks being over-parameterized. Thus, it is desirable to use a methodology which allows for different parsimonious forecasting models to hold at different points in time. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging and dynamic model selection to achieve this goal. These methods automatically alter the weights attached to different forecasting models as evidence comes in about which has forecast well in the recent past. In an empirical study involving forecasting output growth and inflation using 139 UK monthly time series variables, we find that the set of predictors changes substantially over time. Furthermore, our results show that dynamic model averaging and model selection can greatly improve forecast performance relative to traditional forecasting methods.

Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters

This paper uses forecasts from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters to investigate the relationship between inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. We use theoretical structures based on the New Keynesian and Neoclassical Phillips curves to inform our empirical work. Given the relatively short data span of the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the need to control for many explanatory variables, we use dynamic model averaging in order to ensure a parsimonious econometric speci cation. We use both regression-based and VAR-based methods. We find no support for the backward looking behavior embedded in the Neo-classical Phillips curve. Much more support is found for the forward looking behavior of the New Keynesian Phillips curve, but most of this support is found after the beginning of the financial crisis.

Forecasting the European Carbon Market

In an effort to meet its obligations under the Kyoto Protocol, in 2005 the European Union introduced a cap-and-trade scheme where mandated installations are allocated permits to emit CO2. Financial markets have developed that allow companies to trade these carbon permits. For the EU to achieve reductions in CO2 emissions at a minimum cost, it is necessary that companies make appropriate investments and policymakers design optimal policies. In an effort to clarify the workings of the carbon market, several recent papers have attempted to statistically model it. However, the European carbon market (EU ETS) has many institutional features that potentially impact on daily carbon prices (and associated nancial futures). As a consequence, the carbon market has properties that are quite different from conventional financial assets traded in mature markets. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging (DMA) in order to forecast in this newly-developing market. DMA is a recently-developed statistical method which has three advantages over conventional approaches. First, it allows the coefficients on the predictors in a forecasting model to change over time. Second, it allows for the entire fore- casting model to change over time. Third, it surmounts statistical problems which arise from the large number of potential predictors that can explain carbon prices. Our empirical results indicate that there are both important policy and statistical bene ts with our approach. Statistically, we present strong evidence that there is substantial turbulence and change in the EU ETS market, and that DMA can model these features and forecast accurately compared to conventional approaches. From a policy perspective, we discuss the relative and changing role of different price drivers in the EU ETS. Finally, we document the forecast performance of DMA and discuss how this relates to the efficiency and maturity of this market.

UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?

Block factor methods offer an attractive approach to forecasting with many predictors. These extract the information in these predictors into factors reflecting different blocks of variables (e.g. a price block, a housing block, a financial block, etc.). However, a forecasting model which simply includes all blocks as predictors risks being over-parameterized. Thus, it is desirable to use a methodology which allows for different parsimonious forecasting models to hold at different points in time. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging and dynamic model selection to achieve this goal. These methods automatically alter the weights attached to different forecasting model as evidence comes in about which has forecast well in the recent past. In an empirical study involving forecasting output and inflation using 139 UK monthly time series variables, we find that the set of predictors changes substantially over time. Furthermore, our results show that dynamic model averaging and model selection can greatly improve forecast performance relative to traditional forecasting methods.

Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs

In this paper we develop methods for estimation and forecasting in large timevarying parameter vector autoregressive models (TVP-VARs). To overcome computational constraints with likelihood-based estimation of large systems, we rely on Kalman filter estimation with forgetting factors. We also draw on ideas from the dynamic model averaging literature and extend the TVP-VAR so that its dimension can change over time. A final extension lies in the development of a new method for estimating, in a time-varying manner, the parameter(s) of the shrinkage priors commonly-used with large VARs. These extensions are operationalized through the use of forgetting factor methods and are, thus, computationally simple. An empirical application involving forecasting inflation, real output, and interest rates demonstrates the feasibility and usefulness of our approach.

A New Index of Financial Conditions

We use factor augmented vector autoregressive models with time-varying coefficients to construct a financial conditions index. The time-variation in the parameters allows for the weights attached to each financial variable in the index to evolve over time. Furthermore, we develop methods for dynamic model averaging or selection which allow the financial variables entering into the FCI to change over time. We discuss why such extensions of the existing literature are important and show them to be so in an empirical application involving a wide range of financial variables.