A comparison of tests of non-linear cointegration with an application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure

We test whether there are nonlinearities in the response of short- and long-term interest rates to the spread in interest rates, and assess the out-of-sample predictability of interest rates using linear and nonlinear models. We find strong evidence of nonlinearities in the response of interest rates to the spread. Nonlinearities are shown to result in more accurate short-horizon forecasts, especially of the spread.

Linear and non-linear transmission of equity return volatility: evidence from the US, Japan and Australia

This paper models the transmission of shocks between the US, Japanese and Australian equity markets. Tests for the existence of linear and non-linear transmission of volatility across the markets are performed using parametric and non-parametric techniques. In particular the size and sign of return innovations are important factors in determining the degree of spillovers in volatility. It is found that a multivariate asymmetric GARCH formulation can explain almost all of the non-linear causality between markets. These results have important implications for the construction of models and forecasts of international equity returns.

Linear and non-linear (non-)forecastability of high-frequency exchange rates

This paper forecasts Daily Sterling exchange rate returns using various naive, linear and non-linear univariate time-series models. The accuracy of the forecasts is evaluated using mean squared error and sign prediction criteria. These show only a very modest improvement over forecasts generated by a random walk model. The Pesaran–Timmerman test and a comparison with forecasts generated artificially shows that even the best models have no evidence of market timing ability.

Fractional order and non-linear system identification algorithms for biomedical applications

We discuss the modelling of dielectric responses of amorphous biological samples. Such samples are commonly encountered in impedance spectroscopy studies as well as in UV, IR, optical and THz transient spectroscopy experiments and in pump-probe studies. In many occasions, the samples may display quenched absorption bands. A systems identification framework may be developed to provide parsimonious representations of such responses. To achieve this, it is appropriate to augment the standard models found in the identification literature to incorporate fractional order dynamics. Extensions of models using the forward shift operator, state space models as well as their non-linear Hammerstein-Wiener counterpart models are highlighted. We also discuss the need to extend the theory of electromagnetically excited networks which can account for fractional order behaviour in the non-linear regime by incorporating nonlinear elements to account for the observed non-linearities. The proposed approach leads to the development of a range of new chemometrics tools for biomedical data analysis and classification.

A new adaptive multiple modelling approach for non-linear and non-stationary systems

This paper proposes a novel adaptive multiple modelling algorithm for non-linear and non-stationary systems. This simple modelling paradigm comprises K candidate sub-models which are all linear. With data available in an online fashion, the performance of all candidate sub-models are monitored based on the most recent data window, and M best sub-models are selected from the K candidates. The weight coefficients of the selected sub-model are adapted via the recursive least square (RLS) algorithm, while the coefficients of the remaining sub-models are unchanged. These M model predictions are then optimally combined to produce the multi-model output. We propose to minimise the mean square error based on a recent data window, and apply the sum to one constraint to the combination parameters, leading to a closed-form solution, so that maximal computational efficiency can be achieved. In addition, at each time step, the model prediction is chosen from either the resultant multiple model or the best sub-model, whichever is the best. Simulation results are given in comparison with some typical alternatives, including the linear RLS algorithm and a number of online non-linear approaches, in terms of modelling performance and time consumption.

Genetic heterogeneity of residual variance : estimation of variance components using double hierarchical generalized linear models

Background: The sensitivity to microenvironmental changes varies among animals and may be under genetic control. It is essential to take this element into account when aiming at breeding robust farm animals. Here, linear mixed models with genetic effects in the residual variance part of the model can be used. Such models have previously been fitted using EM and MCMC algorithms. Results: We propose the use of double hierarchical generalized linear models (DHGLM), where the squared residuals are assumed to be gamma distributed and the residual variance is fitted using a generalized linear model. The algorithm iterates between two sets of mixed model equations, one on the level of observations and one on the level of variances. The method was validated using simulations and also by re-analyzing a data set on pig litter size that was previously analyzed using a Bayesian approach. The pig litter size data contained 10,060 records from 4,149 sows. The DHGLM was implemented using the ASReml software and the algorithm converged within three minutes on a Linux server. The estimates were similar to those previously obtained using Bayesian methodology, especially the variance components in the residual variance part of the model. Conclusions: We have shown that variance components in the residual variance part of a linear mixed model can be estimated using a DHGLM approach. The method enables analyses of animal models with large numbers of observations. An important future development of the DHGLM methodology is to include the genetic correlation between the random effects in the mean and residual variance parts of the model as a parameter of the DHGLM.

On the optimality of the Friedman Rule with heterogeneous agents and non-linear income taxation

We study the optimal “inflation tax” in an environment with heterogeneous agents and non-linear income taxes. We first derive the general conditions needed for the optimality of the Friedman rule in this setup. These general conditions are distinct in nature and more easily interpretable than those obtained in the literature with a representative agent and linear taxation. We then study two standard monetary specifications and derive their implications for the optimality of the Friedman rule. For the shopping-time model the Friedman rule is optimal with essentially no restrictions on preferences or transaction technologies. For the cash-credit model the Friedman rule is optimal if preferences are separable between the consumption goods and leisure, or if leisure shifts consumption towards the credit good. We also study a generalized model which nests both models as special cases.

A comparison of test of non-linear cointegration with an application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure

We evaluate the forecasting performance of a number of systems models of US shortand long-term interest rates. Non-linearities, induding asymmetries in the adjustment to equilibrium, are shown to result in more accurate short horizon forecasts. We find that both long and short rates respond to disequilibria in the spread in certain circumstances, which would not be evident from linear representations or from single-equation analyses of the short-term interest rate.

Reactive power dispatch and planning using a non-linear branch-and-bound algorithm

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

On non-linear dynamics and an optimal control synthesis of the action potential of membranes (ideal and non-ideal cases) of the Hodgkin-Huxley (HH) mathematical model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

On non-linear dynamics and a periodic control design applied to the potential of membrane action

The Fitzhugh-Nagumo (fn) mathematical model characterizes the action potential of the membrane. The dynamics of the Fitzhugh-Nagumo model have been extensively studied both with a view to their biological implications and as a test bed for numerical methods, which can be applied to more complex models. This paper deals with the dynamics in the (FH) model. Here, the dynamics are analyzed, qualitatively, through the stability diagrams to the action potential of the membrane. Furthermore, we also analyze quantitatively the problem through the evaluation of Floquet multipliers. Finally, the nonlinear periodic problem is controlled, based on the Chebyshev polynomial expansion, the Picard iterative method and on Lyapunov-Floquet transformation (L-F transformation).

Non-Linear Dielectric Properties of PLMN-PT Relaxor Ferroelectrics

Recent investigations on the non-linear (NL) dielectric properties of relaxor ferroelectrics systems, not only as ceramic bodies, but also, in thin films, have showed a significant technological and scientific interest. The most common practical applications of relaxors include multilayer capacitors and actuators. In this work, non-linear dielectric properties of hot-pressed (1-x)[Pb1 -(3/2) yLayMg1/3Nb2/3O3]-xPbTiO3 (PLMN-PT) ferroelectric ceramics were investigated. The NL properties were obtained by using the measurements of the dielectric permittivity of the material as a function of the AC electric field with variable amplitude in the frequency and temperature range of 100 Hz-1 MHz and 50-450 K, respectively. An anomalous behavior of the non-linear dielectric response was observed when submitted to high electric fields levels. The obtained results were analyzed concerning one of the models for the dielectric response of relaxors ferroelectrics materials currently discussed in the literature.

Non-linear analysis of reinforced concrete plates by the boundary element method and continuum damage mechanics

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Giant non-linear absorption in Er3+-doped fluoroindate glass

Non-linear absorption is observed in Er3+-doped fluoroindate glass (in mol% 37InF2:20ZnF2:20SrF2:16BaF2:2GdF2: 2NaF:1GaF3:2ErF3) when the sample is irradiated with a CW laser emitting at 650 nm. An intensity dependence of the optical transmittance is detected. Saturation and sequential absorption of two photons are responsible for the decrease of 50% in the transmittance. The results are explained by simple models which are solved based on rate-equations for the populations of energy levels.

Non-linear 3D finite element analysis of full-arch implant-supported fixed dentures

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)