A quase-estagnação brasileira e sua explicação novo-desenvolvimentista

The Brazilian economy is quasi-stagnant since 1980, with exception of the short 2006-2010 boom, caused by the high prices of the commodities. Up to 1994, the causes were the major financial crisis of the 1980s and the ensuing high inertial inflation. Since these two causes were overcome, the Brazilian economy should have resumed growth, but didn’t. According to new developmental macroeconomics, the new fact that explains this low growth is the 1990-91 trade liberalization, which had as non-predicted consequence the suspension of the neutralization of the Dutch disease. This fact made the Brazilian manufacturing industry to have since then a competitive disadvantage of 20 to 25%, which is causing premature deindustrialization and quasi-stagnation. There is a solution for this stalemate today, but liberal as well as developmental Brazilian economists are not being able to consider the new macroeconomic models that justify it

Economia quase estagnada, acúmulo de incertezas e expectativas negativas no curto prazo (Agosto 2014)

A Copa do Mundo trouxe notícias ruins para o país não só em relação ao que aconteceu com a seleção brasileira nos gramados, mas, também, quanto aos impactos sobre o nível de atividade da economia. As preocupações estão mais recentemente fundamentadas nos resultados de junho: da produção industrial (Pesquisa Industrial Mensal – Produção Física); das vendas no comércio varejista (Pesquisa Mensal do Comércio — PMC); e da produção de Serviços (Pesquisa Mensal de Serviços —PMS, todas do IBGE).

Na primeira rodada da Copa, Neymar foi (quase) absoluto no Twitter

A primeira fase da Copa do Mundo no Brasil encerrou-se na última quinta-feira (26), tendo atraído grande atenção internacional. Até ontem, foram registradas cerca de 17 milhões de menções relacionadas ao torneio no Twitter no mundo inteiro, com média de mais de 1 milhão de "tuítes" por dia. Os principais destaques até o momento foram Neymar, astro da Seleção Brasileira e um dos artilheiros do Mundial com quatro gols, e Luis Suárez, artilheiro uruguaio que praticamente monopolizou as redes desde a terça-feira (25), após morder o italiano Giorgio Chiellini em partida válida pela terceira rodada da primeira fase.

Na primeira rodada da Copa, Neymar foi (quase) absoluto no Twitter

A primeira fase da Copa do Mundo no Brasil encerrou-se na última quinta-feira (26), tendo atraído grande atenção internacional. Até ontem, foram registradas cerca de 17 milhões de menções relacionadas ao torneio no Twitter no mundo inteiro, com média de mais de 1 milhão de "tuítes" por dia. Os principais destaques até o momento foram Neymar, astro da Seleção Brasileira e um dos artilheiros do Mundial com quatro gols, e Luis Suárez, artilheiro uruguaio que praticamente monopolizou as redes desde a terça-feira (25), após morder o italiano Giorgio Chiellini em partida válida pela terceira rodada da primeira fase. Os números são do Mundial na Rede, ferramenta da Diretoria de Análise de Políticas Públicas da Fundação Getulio Vargas em parceria com a empresa britânica Brandwatch, que monitora menções à Copa do Mundo no Twitter. A ferramenta, que pode ser acessada no site da FGV/DAPP, monitora os "tuítes" em inglês no mundo inteiro e também em português, oferecendo insights em tempo real sobre cada um dos países participantes do Mundial.

Distribuições hiperbólicas generalizadas: aplicações ao mercado português

O objectivo desta tese é discutir o uso das distribuições hiperbólicas generalizadas como modelo para os retornos logarítmicos de 4 activos do mercado de capitais Português. Os activos em análise são o índice Português PSI 20 e as 3 maiores empresas pertencentes ao PSI 20: PT, EDP e BCP. Os dados são constituidos pelos valores de fecho diário durante mais de 8 anos. Utilizando o software R procederemos à estimação dos parâmetros das distribuições para ajustamento aos dados empíricos. Para medir o grau de ajustamento das distribuições aos dados empíricos usamos os gráficos QQ-plots e 4 distâncias: Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Kuiper, Anderson-Darling e Fajardo-Farias-Ornelas. Os resultados obtidos permitem concluir que o melhor ajustamento é feito pela hiperbólica generalizada e em seguida a distribuição normal inversa gaussiana. Todas as distribuições desta família ajustam-se muito melhor que a distribuição normal. Por último temos uma aplicação ao cálculo do preço de derivados financeiros, nomeadamente a fórmula de uma opção de compra Europeia no modelo discutido.

Simulação computacional de medidas estereológicas em estruturas de metal duro (WC-Co)

This work focuses on the creation and applications of a dynamic simulation software in order to study the hard metal structure (WC-Co). The technological ground used to increase the GPU hardware capacity was Geforce 9600 GT along with the PhysX chip created to make games more realistic. The software simulates the three-dimensional carbide structure to the shape of a cubic box where tungsten carbide (WC) are modeled as triangular prisms and truncated triangular prisms. The program was proven effective regarding checking testes, ranging from calculations of parameter measures such as the capacity to increase the number of particles simulated dynamically. It was possible to make an investigation of both the mean parameters and distributions stereological parameters used to characterize the carbide structure through cutting plans. Grounded on the cutting plans concerning the analyzed structures, we have investigated the linear intercepts, the intercepts to the area, and the perimeter section of the intercepted grains as well as the binder phase to the structure by calculating the mean value and distribution of the free path. As literature shows almost consensually that the distribution of the linear intercepts is lognormal, this suggests that the grain distribution is also lognormal. Thus, a routine was developed regarding the program which made possible a more detailed research on this issue. We have observed that it is possible, under certain values for the parameters which define the shape and size of the Prismatic grain to find out the distribution to the linear intercepts that approach the lognormal shape. Regarding a number of developed simulations, we have observed that the distribution curves of the linear and area intercepts as well as the perimeter section are consistent with studies on static computer simulation to these parameters.

Caracterização analítica e geométrica da metodologia geral de determinação de distribuições de Weibull para o regime eólico e suas aplicações

O regime eólico de uma região pode ser descrito por distribuição de frequências que fornecem informações e características extremamente necessárias para uma possível implantação de sistemas eólicos de captação de energia na região e consequentes aplicações no meio rural em regiões afastadas. Estas características, tais como a velocidade média anual, a variância das velocidades registradas e a densidade da potência eólica média horária, podem ser obtidas pela frequência de ocorrências de determinada velocidade, que por sua vez deve ser estudada através de expressões analíticas. A função analítica mais adequada para distribuições eólicas é a função de densidade de Weibull, que pode ser determinada por métodos numéricos e regressões lineares. O objetivo deste trabalho é caracterizar analítica e geometricamente todos os procedimentos metodológicos necessários para a realização de uma caracterização completa do regime eólico de uma região e suas aplicações na região de Botucatu - SP, visando a determinar o potencial energético para implementação de turbinas eólicas. Assim, foi possível estabelecer teoremas relacionados com a forma de caracterização do regime eólico, estabelecendo a metodologia concisa analiticamente para a definição dos parâmetros eólicos de qualquer região a ser estudada. Para o desenvolvimento desta pesquisa, utilizou-se um anemômetro da CAMPBELL.

Qualidade de vida em gestantes no contexto na Estratégia Saúde da Família

The pregnancy as a process in woman's life requires several biological, psychological, relational and socio-cultural changes for the preparation for motherhood. By modifying its capacity and, at the expense of these factors, it is observed that the physical, social and emotional problems experienced by women during pregnancy can affect their quality of life, especially related to health. It had as objectives of this research verifying the quality of life of women in the context of the Family Health Strategy in a municipality in Paraíba, in order to characterize the sociodemographic aspects, lifestyle habits, and obstetric care of pregnant women and to characterize the fields of quality of life of pregnant women according to the WHOQOL-bref. This is a descriptive exploratory study with cross-sectional and quantitative approach. The population consisted of 120 pregnant women in primary care in the municipality of Sousa-PB. Data collection occurred over a period of two months by the own master's degree student and two nursing students in applying a standard form about sociodemographic characteristics, and obstetric care and the WHOQOL-bref instrument. The data collected were organized into an electronic database of the Microsoft Excel application, coded, tabulated and presented in tables, charts and figures with their respective percentage distributions. Of the surveyed, the predominant were age group of 20 to 25 years, Catholic religion, with a steady partner, low education, no employment, wage income of 01 minimum wage. As for the data and obstetric care, almost all had never aborted and reported to the care received as excellent. The most frequent complaints were back pain and in lower abdomen. Regarding quality of life according to the WHOQOL-bref, dissatisfactions that predominated in the areas were in the physical pain and discomfort, sleep, rest, energy and fatigue. In the psychological domain, body image and appearance, memory, concentration and negative feelings. In the field of social relationships, sexual activity and the environment domain, the greatest dissatisfaction with facets scored: financial resources, leisure opportunities and transport. It is concluded that the quality of life of the users interviewed were deemed unsatisfactory for these facets, indicating that assistance to this target audience should be done comprehensively and holistically, in order to accommodate the affected facets to improve the quality of life pregnant women attended in primary care

Novas configurações de monopólios planares quase-fractais para sistemas de comunicações móveis

The characteristic properties of the fractal geometry have shown to be very useful for the construction of filters, frequency selective surfaces, synchronized circuits and antennas, enabling optimized solutions in many different commercial uses at microwaves frequency band. The fractal geometry is included in the technology of the microwave communication systems due to some interesting properties to the fabrication of compact devices, with higher performance in terms of bandwidth, as well as multiband behavior. This work describes the design, fabrication and measurement procedures for the Koch quasi-fractal monopoles, with 1 and 2 iteration levels, in order to investigate the bandwidth behavior of planar antennas, from the use of quasi-fractal elements printed on their rectangular patches. The electromagnetic effect produced by the variation of the fractal iterations and the miniaturization of the structures is analyzed. Moreover, a parametric study is performed to verify the bandwidth behavior, not only at the return loss but also in terms of SWR. Experimental results were obtained through the accomplishment of measurements with the aid of a vetorial network analyzer and compared to simulations performed using the Ansoft HFSS software. Finally, some proposals for future works are presented

Antenas de microfita com patch quase-fractal para aplicações em Redes WPAN/WLAN

The microstrip antennas are in constant evidence in current researches due to several advantages that it presents. Fractal geometry coupled with good performance and convenience of the planar structures are an excellent combination for design and analysis of structures with ever smaller features and multi-resonant and broadband. This geometry has been applied in such patch microstrip antennas to reduce its size and highlight its multi-band behavior. Compared with the conventional microstrip antennas, the quasifractal patch antennas have lower frequencies of resonance, enabling the manufacture of more compact antennas. The aim of this work is the design of quasi-fractal patch antennas through the use of Koch and Minkowski fractal curves applied to radiating and nonradiating antenna s edges of conventional rectangular patch fed by microstrip inset-fed line, initially designed for the frequency of 2.45 GHz. The inset-fed technique is investigated for the impedance matching of fractal antennas, which are fed through lines of microstrip. The efficiency of this technique is investigated experimentally and compared with simulations carried out by commercial software Ansoft Designer used for precise analysis of the electromagnetic behavior of antennas by the method of moments and the neural model proposed. In this dissertation a study of literature on theory of microstrip antennas is done, the same study is performed on the fractal geometry, giving more emphasis to its various forms, techniques for generation of fractals and its applicability. This work also presents a study on artificial neural networks, showing the types/architecture of networks used and their characteristics as well as the training algorithms that were used for their implementation. The equations of settings of the parameters for networks used in this study were derived from the gradient method. It will also be carried out research with emphasis on miniaturization of the proposed new structures, showing how an antenna designed with contours fractals is capable of a miniaturized antenna conventional rectangular patch. The study also consists of a modeling through artificial neural networks of the various parameters of the electromagnetic near-fractal antennas. The presented results demonstrate the excellent capacity of modeling techniques for neural microstrip antennas and all algorithms used in this work in achieving the proposed models were implemented in commercial software simulation of Matlab 7. In order to validate the results, several prototypes of antennas were built, measured on a vector network analyzer and simulated in software for comparison

Desenvolvimento de monopolos quase-espirais para aplicações em sistemas UWB

This work is the analysis of a structure of the microstrip antenna designed for application in ultra wide band systems (Ultra Wideband - UWB). This is a prospective analytical study where they tested the changes in the geometry of the antenna, observing their suitability to the proposed objectives. It is known that the UWB antenna must operate in a range of at least 500 MHz, and answer a fractional bandwidth greater than or equal to 25%. It is also desirable that the antenna meets the specifications of track determined by FCC - Federal Communication Commission, which regulates the system in 2002 designating the UWB bandwidth of 7.5 GHz, a range that varies from 3.1 GHz to 10, 6 GHz. by setting the maximum power spectral density of operation in -41.3 dB / MHz, and defining the fractional bandwidth by 20%. The study starts of a structure of geometry in the form of stylized @, which evolves through changes in its form, in simulated commercial software CST MICROWAVE STUDIO, version 5.3.1, and then tested using the ANSOFT HFSS, version 9. These variations, based on observations of publications available from literature referring to the microstrip monopole planar antennas. As a result it is proposed an antenna, called Monopole Antenna Planar Spiral Almost Rectangular for applications in UWB systems - AMQEUWB, which presents simulated and measured results satisfactory, consistent with the objectives of the study. Some proposals for future work are mentioned

Propriedades magnéticas quase-estáticas de filmes ferromagnéticos amorfos de FeCuNbSiB

Today, one of the topics that attracts interest of the scientific community is the understanding of magnetic properties of magnetic systems with reduced dimensions, in particular, ferromagnetic thin films. In this case, the comprehension and control of these properties, as well as the development of routes to obtain them, are crucial issues in many aspects of current and future technologies for storage and transmission of information in the electro-electronic industry. There are several materials that exhibit soft magnetic properties, and we highlight the amorphous alloys and that ones obtained by partial crystallization, so-called nanocrystalline materials. The production of these alloys as magnetic ribbons is very common in scientific and technological area, but there are just a few works related to the production of these alloys as thin films. In this work, we studied the quasi-static magnetic properties of ferromagnetic thin films based on FeCuNbSiB in a wide range of thicknesses, from 20 to 500 nm, produced by sputtering. In particular, after the structural characterization performed via X-ray diffraction, the magnetic properties of the sets of samples were investigated using experimental magnetization curve, obtained using a vibrating sample magnetometer, as well as through theoretical curves obtained by theoretical modeling and numerical computation. The modeling process is based on the Stoner Wohlfarth model applied to three dimensions, and adds some energy terms, using as reference experimental results of magnetization. In this case, from the comparison between theoretical and experimental results and the analysis of the constant anisotropy behavior as a function of film thickness, we aim to obtain further information on the magnetization process of the samples, to identify routes for the production of thin films and develop a theoretical to films to use it, in the future, in the obtainment of the theoretical curves of some magnetic measurements, such as magnetoimpedance and magnetoresistance

Uma estratégia aleatória chamada de MOSES

This paper we study a random strategy called MOSES, which was introduced in 1996 by Fran¸cois. Asymptotic results of this strategy; behavior of the stationary distributions of the chain associated to strategy, were derived by Fran¸cois, in 1998, of the theory of Freidlin and Wentzell [8]. Detailings of these results are in this work. Moreover, we noted that an alternative approach the convergence of this strategy is possible without making use of theory of Freidlin and Wentzell, yielding the visit almost certain of the strategy to uniform populations which contain the minimum. Some simulations in Matlab are presented in this work

Evolução e determinantes de incremento de peso (por altura e idade) em crianças de dois a 72 meses em Sorocaba, São Paulo: evidências a partir de estudo quase-experimental seriado.

OBJETIVOS: recupera-se síntese dos principais aspectos das publicações referentes a projeto conduzido pela equipe, na década passada, com o objetivo de subsidiar a avaliação de política pública setorial de suplementação alimentar na infância. MÉTODOS: acompanharam-se trimestralmente, durante um ano, indicadores de crescimento e desenvolvimento em populações periféricas de dois a 72 meses de idade, em Sorocaba, São Paulo. Após realização do censo infantil de duas regiões da cidade, as crianças freqüentes a creches (em número de 164) foram comparadas às demais (280). O impacto nutricional foi quantificado através de análises univariadas (testes inferenciais Kappa e de Goodman) e multivariadas. Vieses e confundimento foram averiguados e controlados. RESULTADOS: observou-se, entre muitas outras informações obtidas, que o grupo assistido apresentou: 1) idade média superior; 2) menor taxa de aleitamento natural; 3) menores valores de peso/altura à admissão, com maiores ganhos durante a evolução; 4) essa melhora aumentou com a duração da exposição e foi maior entre os mais velhos. CONCLUSÕES: avalia-se que assistir apropriadamente pré-escolares constitui hoje, em nosso meio, relevante imperativo de ordem social.