Toward partial redirection of energy policy for responsible development

This paper addresses the surprising lack of quality control on the analysis and selection on energy policies observable in the last decades. As an example, we discuss the delusional idea that it is possible to replace fossil energy with large scale ethanol production from agricultural crops. But if large scale ethanol production is not practical in energetic terms, why huge amount of money has been invested in it and is it still being invested? In order to answer this question we introduce two concepts useful to frame, in general terms, the predicament of quality control in science: (i) the concept of “granfalloons” proposed by K. Vonnegut (1963) flagging the danger of the formation of “crusades to save the world” void of real meaning. These granfalloons are often used by powerful lobbies to distort policy decisions; and (ii) the concept of Post-Normal science by S. Funtowicz and J. Ravetz (1990) indicating a standard predicament faced by science when producing information for governance. When mixing together uncertainty, multiple-scale and legitimate but contrasting views it becomes impossible to deal with complex issue using the conventional scientific approach based on reductionism. We finally discuss the implications of a different approach to the assessment of alternative energy sources by introducing the concept of Promethean technology.

Daily energy expenditure in free-living conditions in obese and non-obese children: comparison of doubly labelled water (2H2(18)O) method and heart-rate monitoring.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the heart-rate monitoring with the doubly labelled water (2H2(18)O) method to estimate total daily energy expenditure in obese and non-obese children. DESIGN: Cross sectional study of obese and normal weight children. SUBJECTS: 13 prepubertal children: six obese (4M, 2F, 9.1 +/- 1.5 years, 47.3 +/- 9.7 kg) and seven non-obese (3M, 4F, 9.3 +/- 0.6 years, 31.8 +/- 3.2 kg). MEASUREMENTS: Total daily energy expenditure was assessed by means of the doubly labelled water method (TEEDLW) and of heart-rate monitoring (TEEHR). RESULTS: TEEHR was significantly (P < 0.05) higher than TEEDLW in obese children (9.47 +/- 0.84 MJ/d vs 8.99 +/- 0.63 MJ/d) whereas it was not different in non-obese children (8.43 +/- 2.02 MJ/d vs 8.42 +/- 2.30 MJ/d, P = NS). The difference of TEE assessed by HR monitoring in the obese group averaged 6.2 +/- 4.7%. At the individual level, the degree of agreement (difference between TEEHR and TEEDLW +/- 2s.d.) was low both in obese (-0.36, 1.32 MJ/d) and in non-obese children (-1.30, 1.34 MJ/d). At the group level, the agreement between the two methods was good in nonobese children (95% c.i. for the bias:-0.59, 0.63 MJ/d) but not in obese children (0.04, 0.92 MJ/d). Duration of sleep and energy expenditure during resting and physical activity were not significantly different in the two groups. Patterns of heart-rate (or derived energy expenditure) during the day-time were similar in obese and non-obese children. CONCLUSION: The HR monitoring technique provides an estimation of TEE close to that assessed by the DLW method in non-obese prepubertal children. In comparison with DLW, the HR monitoring method yields a greater TEE value in obese children.

Comparison of thermogenic effect of fructose and glucose in normal humans.

After nutrient ingestion there is an increase in energy expenditure that has been referred to as dietary-induced thermogenesis. In the present study we have employed indirect calorimetry to compare the increment in energy expenditure after the ingestion of 75 g of glucose or fructose in 17 healthy volunteers. During the 4 h after glucose ingestion the plasma insulin concentration increased by 33 +/- 4 microU/ml and this was associated with a significant increase in carbohydrate oxidation and decrement in lipid oxidation. Energy expenditure increased by 0.08 +/- 0.01 kcal/min. When fructose was ingested, the plasma insulin concentration increased by only 8 +/- 2 microU/ml vs. glucose. Nonetheless, the increments in carbohydrate oxidation and decrement in lipid oxidation were significantly greater than with glucose. The increment in energy expenditure was also greater with fructose. When the mean increment in plasma insulin concentration after fructose was reproduced using the insulin clamp technique, the increase in carbohydrate oxidation and decrement in lipid oxidation were markedly reduced compared with the fructose-ingestion study; energy expenditure failed to increase above basal levels. To examine the role of the adrenergic nervous system in fructose-induced thermogenesis, fructose ingestion was also performed during beta-adrenergic blockade with propranolol. The increase in energy expenditure during fructose plus propranolol was lower than with fructose ingestion alone. These results indicate that the stimulation of thermogenesis after carbohydrate ingestion is related to an augmentation of cellular metabolism and is not dependent on an increase in the plasma insulin concentration per se.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Price spike forecasting in a competitive day-ahead energy market

Electricity price forecasting has become an important area of research in the aftermath of the worldwide deregulation of the power industry that launched competitive electricity markets now embracing all market participants including generation and retail companies, transmission network providers, and market managers. Based on the needs of the market, a variety of approaches forecasting day-ahead electricity prices have been proposed over the last decades. However, most of the existing approaches are reasonably effective for normal range prices but disregard price spike events, which are caused by a number of complex factors and occur during periods of market stress. In the early research, price spikes were truncated before application of the forecasting model to reduce the influence of such observations on the estimation of the model parameters; otherwise, a very large forecast error would be generated on price spike occasions. Electricity price spikes, however, are significant for energy market participants to stay competitive in a market. Accurate price spike forecasting is important for generation companies to strategically bid into the market and to optimally manage their assets; for retailer companies, since they cannot pass the spikes onto final customers, and finally, for market managers to provide better management and planning for the energy market. This doctoral thesis aims at deriving a methodology able to accurately predict not only the day-ahead electricity prices within the normal range but also the price spikes. The Finnish day-ahead energy market of Nord Pool Spot is selected as the case market, and its structure is studied in detail. It is almost universally agreed in the forecasting literature that no single method is best in every situation. Since the real-world problems are often complex in nature, no single model is able to capture different patterns equally well. Therefore, a hybrid methodology that enhances the modeling capabilities appears to be a possibly productive strategy for practical use when electricity prices are predicted. The price forecasting methodology is proposed through a hybrid model applied to the price forecasting in the Finnish day-ahead energy market. The iterative search procedure employed within the methodology is developed to tune the model parameters and select the optimal input set of the explanatory variables. The numerical studies show that the proposed methodology has more accurate behavior than all other examined methods most recently applied to case studies of energy markets in different countries. The obtained results can be considered as providing extensive and useful information for participants of the day-ahead energy market, who have limited and uncertain information for price prediction to set up an optimal short-term operation portfolio. Although the focus of this work is primarily on the Finnish price area of Nord Pool Spot, given the result of this work, it is very likely that the same methodology will give good results when forecasting the prices on energy markets of other countries.

Vitamin D receptor alleles and bone mineral density in a normal premenopausal Brazilian female population

Studies on the association between vitamin D receptor (VDR) polymorphism and bone mineral density (BMD) in different populations have produced conflicting results probably due to ethnic differences in the populations studied. The Brazilian population is characterized by a very broad genetic background and a high degree of miscegenation. Of an initial group of 164, we studied 127 women from the city of São Paulo, aged 20 to 47 years (median, 31 years), with normal menses, a normal diet and no history of diseases or use of any medication that could alter BMD. VDR genotype was assessed by PCR amplification followed by BsmI digestion of DNA isolated from peripheral leukocytes. BMD was measured using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (Lunar DPX) at the lumbar site (L2-L4) and femoral neck. Most of the women (77.6%) were considered to be of predominantly European ancestry (20.6% of them reported also native American ancestry), 12.8% were of African-Brazilian ancestry and 9.6% of Asian ancestry, 41.0% (52) were classified as bb, 48.8% (62) as Bb and 10.2% (13) as BB. The BB, Bb and bb groups did not differ in age, height, weight, body mass index or age at menarche. Lumbar spine BMD was significantly higher in the bb group (1.22 ± 0.16 g/cm²) than in the BB group (1.08 ± 0.14; P<0.05), and the Bb group presented an intermediate value (1.17 ± 0.15). Femoral neck BMD was higher in the bb group (0.99 ± 0.11 g/cm²) compared to Bb (0.93 ± 0.12) and BB (0.90 ± 0.09) (P<0.05). These data indicate that there is a significant correlation between the VDR BsmI genotype and BMD in healthy Brazilian premenopausal females.

Protein-energy malnutrition halts hemopoietic progenitor cells in the G0/G1 cell cycle stage, thereby altering cell production rates

Protein energy malnutrition (PEM) is a syndrome that often results in immunodeficiency coupled with pancytopenia. Hemopoietic tissue requires a high nutrient supply and the proliferation, differentiation and maturation of cells occur in a constant and balanced manner, sensitive to the demands of specific cell lineages and dependent on the stem cell population. In the present study, we evaluated the effect of PEM on some aspects of hemopoiesis, analyzing the cell cycle of bone marrow cells and the percentage of progenitor cells in the bone marrow. Two-month-old male Swiss mice (N = 7-9 per group) were submitted to PEM with a low-protein diet (4%) or were fed a control diet (20% protein) ad libitum. When the experimental group had lost about 20% of their original body weight after 14 days, we collected blood and bone marrow cells to determine the percentage of progenitor cells and the number of cells in each phase of the cell cycle. Animals of both groups were stimulated with 5-fluorouracil. Blood analysis, bone marrow cell composition and cell cycle evaluation was performed after 10 days. Malnourished animals presented anemia, reticulocytopenia and leukopenia. Their bone marrow was hypocellular and depleted of progenitor cells. Malnourished animals also presented more cells than normal in phases G0 and G1 of the cell cycle. Thus, we conclude that PEM leads to the depletion of progenitor hemopoietic populations and changes in cellular development. We suggest that these changes are some of the primary causes of pancytopenia in cases of PEM.

The vibrational spectra and the normal coordinate analysis of thiocarbonye halides /|nby C. R. Subramaniam. -- 260 St. Catharines, Ont. : [s. n.],

The infrared and the Raman spectra of eSelF has been obtained for the first time and has been analysed to give the in-plane normal vibrational frequencies of the molecule, in the ground state. A normal co-ordinate analysis has been carried out for the molecules CSF2, CSClF and eSel 2 using a Urey-Bradley type of potential function and the elements of the [L] matrix elements, the distribution of the potential energy in Urey-Bradley space, and the displacement vector diagrams for the normal modes of vibration for these molecules, have been obtained. The bond for~e constants obtained through the normal co-ordinate analysis, have given some interesting results. The stretching force constant, Kes ' varies markedly with halogen substitution and the force constants KeF and Keel also vary with substitution.

Bone speed of sound in overweight and normal-weight girls and adolescents

Over the last two decades, the prevalence of obesity in the general population has been steadily increasing. Obesity is a major issue in scientific research because it is associated with many health problems, one of which is bone quality. In adult females, adiposity is associated with increased bone mineral density, suggesting that there is a protective effect of fat on bone. However, the association between adiposity and bone strength during childhood is not clear. Thus, the purpose of this study was to compare bone strength, as reflected by speed of sound (SOS), of overweight and obese girls and adolescents with normal-weight age-matched controls. Data from 75 females included normal-weight girls (G-NW; body fat:::; 25%; n = 21), overweight and obese girls (GOW; body fat ~ 28%; n = 19), normal-weight adolescents (A-NW, body fat:::; 25%; n = 13) and overweight and obese adolescents (A-OW; body fat ~ 28%; n = 22). Nutrition was assessed with a 24-hour recall questionnaire and habitual physical activity was measured for one week using accelerometry. Using quantitative ultrasound (QUS; Sunlight Omnisense™), bone SOS was measured at the distal radius and mid-tibia. No differences were found between groups in daily total energy, calcium or vitamin D intake. However, all groups were below the recommended daily calcium intake of 1300 mg (Osteoporosis Canada, 2008). Adolescents were significantly less active than girls (14.7 ± 0.6 vs. 6.3 ± 0.6% active for G and A, respectively). OW accumulated significantly less minutes of moderate-to-very vigorous physical activity per day (MVPA) than NW in both age groups (114 ± 6 vs. 57 ± 5 min/day for NW and OW, i respectively). Girls had significantly lower radial SOS (3794 ± 87 vs. 3964 ± 64 mls for G-NW and A-NW, respectively), and tibial SOS (3678 ± 86 vs. 3878 ± 52 mls for G-NW and A-NW, respectively) than adolescents. Radial SOS was similar in the two adiposity groups within each age group. However, tibial SOS was lower in the two overweight groups (3601 ± 75 mls vs. 3739 ± 134 mls for G-OW and A-OW, respectively) compared with the age-matched normal-weight controls. Body fat percentage negatively correlated with tibial SOS in the study sample as a whole (r = -0.30). However, when split into groups, percent bo~y fat correlated with tibial SOS only in the A-OW group (r = -0.53). MVPA correlated with tibial SOS (r = 0.40), once age was partialed out. In conclusion, in contrast withthe higher bone strength characteristic of obese adult women, overweight and obese girls and adolescents are characterized by low tibial bone strength, as assessed with QUS. The differences between adiposity groups in tibial SOS may be at least partially due to the reduced weight-bearing physical activity levels in the overweight girls and adolescents. However, other factors, such as hormonal influences associated with high body fat may also playa role in reducing bone strength in overweight girls. Further research is required to reveal the mechanisms causing low bone strength in overweight and obese children and adolescents.

Eddy current testing system with scanning probe head having parallel and normal sensing coils

An eddy current testing system consists of a multi-sensor probe, a computer and a special expansion card and software for data-collection and analysis. The probe incorporates an excitation coil, and sensor coils; at least one sensor coil is a lateral current-normal coil and at least one is a current perturbation coil.

Eddy current testing program with scanning probe head having parallel and normal sensing coils

An eddy current testing system consists of a multi-sensor probe, computer and a special expansion card and software for data collection and analysis. The probe incorporates an excitation coil, and sensor coils; at least one sensor coil is a lateral current-normal coil and at least one is a current perturbation coil.

On the relationship of normal modes to local modes in molecular vibrations

A simple model for the effective vibrational hamiltonian of the XH stretching vibrations in H2O, NH3 and CH4 is considered, based on a morse potential function for the bond stretches plus potential and kinetic energy coupling between pairs of bond oscillators. It is shown that this model can be set up as a matrix in local mode basis functions, or as a matrix in normal mode basis functions, leading to identical results. The energy levels obtained exhibit normal mode patterns at low vibrational excitation, and local mode patterns at high excitation. When the hamiltonian is set up in the normal mode basis it is shown that Darling-Dennison resonances must be included, and simple relations are found to exist between the xrs, gtt, and Krrss anharmonic constants (where the Darling-Dennison coefficients are denoted K) due to their contributions from morse anharmonicity in the bond stretches. The importance of the Darling-Dennison resonances is stressed. The relationship of the two alternative representations of this local mode/normal mode model are investigated, and the potential uses and limitations of the model are discussed.

Normal coordinates in the methyl halides

The potential‐energy functions found by Chang for the methyl halides have been put into valence‐type form and revised to eliminate inconsistencies and to accord with the true (nontetrahedral) geometry and the normal frequencies (corrected for Fermi resonance and anharmonicity). The resulting valence‐type force constants and normal coordinates are given for light (CH3) and heavy (CD3) chlorides, bromides, and iodides.

Effect of type and timing of oil supplements to sows during pregnancy on the growth performance and endocrine profile of low and normal birth weight offspring

Eighty-eight multiparous sows were used to evaluate whether type and timing of oil supplementation during gestation influences the incidence of low birth weight (LBW). Sows were allocated (eight per treatment) commercial sow pellets (3 kg/d; control diet) or an experimental diet consisting of control diet plus 10 % extra energy in the form of excess pellets, palm oil, olive oil (OO), sunflower oil (SO) or fish oil; experimental diets were fed during either the first half (G1) or second half (G2) of gestation. Growth performance and endocrine profile of LBW ( < 1·09 kg) and normal birth weight (NBW; 1·46–1·64 kg) offspring were compared. Maternal dietary supplementation altered the distribution curve for piglet birth weight. SOG1 sows had a greater proportion of LBW piglets (P < 0·05), whilst it was reduced in the OOG1 group (P < 0·05). Growth rate of LBW piglets was lower compared with their NBW siblings (P < 0·05) when dietary supplementation was offered in G2 but were similar for G1. At birth, LBW offspring of supplemented animals possessed more fat compared with the control group (P < 0·05); LBW offspring of control animals exhibited a more rapid decline in fat free mass/kg prior to weaning. Plasma metabolites and insulin concentrations were influenced by maternal diet and birth weight. In conclusion, maternal dietary supplementation altered the distribution of piglet birth weights and improved the energy status of LBW piglets. Supplementation with MUFA during G1 reduced the incidence of LBW, whereas PUFA had the reverse effect.

Rates of production of acetate, propionate, and butyrate in the rumen of lactating dairy cows given normal and low-roughage diets

Five lactating dairy cows with a permanent cannula in the rumen were given ( kg DM/d) a normal diet (7.8 concentrates, 5.1 hay) or a low-roughage (LR) diet (11.5 concentrates, 1.2 hay) in two meals daily in a two-period crossover design. Milk fat (g/kg) was severely reduced on diet LR. To measure rates of production of individual volatile fatty acids (VFA) in the rumen, 0.5 mCi 1-C-14-acetic acid, 2-C-14-propionic acid, or 1-C-14-n-butyric acid were infused into the rumen for 22 h at intervals of 2 to 6 d; rumen samples were taken over the last 12 h. To measure rumen volume, we infused Cr-EDTA into the rumen continuously, and polyethylene glycol was injected 2 h before the morning feed. Results were very variable, so volumes measured by rumen emptying were used instead. Net production of propionic acid more than doubled on LR, but acetate and butyrate production was only numerically lower. Net production rates pooled across both diets were significantly related to concentrations for each VFA. Molar proportions of net production were only slightly higher than molar proportions of concentrations for acetate and propionate but were lower for butyrate. The net energy value (MJ/d) of production of the three VFA increased from 89.5 on normal to 109.1 on LR, equivalent to 55 and 64% of digestible energy, respectively. Fully interchanging, three-pool models of VFA C fluxes are presented. It is concluded that net production rates of VFA can be measured in non-steady states without the need to measure rumen volumes.

Rovibrational energy levels of hydrogen peroxide, studied by MULTIMODE with a reaction path Hamiltonian

Recently. Carter and Handy [J. Chem. Phys. 113 (2000) 987] have introduced the theory of the reaction path Hamiltonian (RPH) [J. Chem. Phys. 72 (1980) 99] into the variational scheme MULTIMODE, for the calculation of the J = 0 vibrational levels of polyatomic molecules, which have a single large-amplitude motion. In this theory the reaction path coordinate s becomes the fourth dimension of the moment-of-inertia tensor, and must be treated separately from the remaining 3N - 7 normal coordinates in the MULTIMODE program. In the modified program, complete integration is performed over s, and the M-mode MULTIMODE coupling approximation for the evaluation of the matrix elements applies only to the 3N - 7 normal coordinates. In this paper the new algorithm is extended to the calculation of rotational-vibration energy levels (i.e. J > 0) with the RPH, following from our analogous implementation for rigid molecules [Theoret. Chem. Acc. 100 (1998) 191]. The full theory is given, and all extra terms have been included to give the exact kinetic energy operator. In order to validate the new code, we report studies on hydrogen peroxide (H2O2), where the reaction path is equivalent to torsional motion. H2O2 has previously been studied variationally using a valence coordinate Hamiltonian; complete agreement for calculated rovibrational levels is obtained between the previous results and those from the new code, using the identical potential surface. MULTIMODE is now able to calculate rovibrational levels for polyatomic molecules which have one large-amplitude motion. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.