Numerical Feasibility Study for Treated Wastewater Recharge as a Tool to Impede Saltwater Intrusion in the Coastal Aquifer of Gaza – Palestine

The ongoing depletion of the coastal aquifer in the Gaza strip due to groundwater overexploitation has led to the process of seawater intrusion, which is continually becoming a serious problem in Gaza, as the seawater has further invaded into many sections along the coastal shoreline. As a first step to get a hold on the problem, the artificial neural network (ANN)-model has been applied as a new approach and an attractive tool to study and predict groundwater levels without applying physically based hydrologic parameters, and also for the purpose to improve the understanding of complex groundwater systems and which is able to show the effects of hydrologic, meteorological and anthropogenic impacts on the groundwater conditions. Prediction of the future behaviour of the seawater intrusion process in the Gaza aquifer is thus of crucial importance to safeguard the already scarce groundwater resources in the region. In this study the coupled three-dimensional groundwater flow and density-dependent solute transport model SEAWAT, as implemented in Visual MODFLOW, is applied to the Gaza coastal aquifer system to simulate the location and the dynamics of the saltwater–freshwater interface in the aquifer in the time period 2000-2010. A very good agreement between simulated and observed TDS salinities with a correlation coefficient of 0.902 and 0.883 for both steady-state and transient calibration is obtained. After successful calibration of the solute transport model, simulation of future management scenarios for the Gaza aquifer have been carried out, in order to get a more comprehensive view of the effects of the artificial recharge planned in the Gaza strip for some time on forestall, or even to remedy, the presently existing adverse aquifer conditions, namely, low groundwater heads and high salinity by the end of the target simulation period, year 2040. To that avail, numerous management scenarios schemes are examined to maintain the ground water system and to control the salinity distributions within the target period 2011-2040. In the first, pessimistic scenario, it is assumed that pumping from the aquifer continues to increase in the near future to meet the rising water demand, and that there is not further recharge to the aquifer than what is provided by natural precipitation. The second, optimistic scenario assumes that treated surficial wastewater can be used as a source of additional artificial recharge to the aquifer which, in principle, should not only lead to an increased sustainable yield of the latter, but could, in the best of all cases, revert even some of the adverse present-day conditions in the aquifer, i.e., seawater intrusion. This scenario has been done with three different cases which differ by the locations and the extensions of the injection-fields for the treated wastewater. The results obtained with the first (do-nothing) scenario indicate that there will be ongoing negative impacts on the aquifer, such as a higher propensity for strong seawater intrusion into the Gaza aquifer. This scenario illustrates that, compared with 2010 situation of the baseline model, at the end of simulation period, year 2040, the amount of saltwater intrusion into the coastal aquifer will be increased by about 35 %, whereas the salinity will be increased by 34 %. In contrast, all three cases of the second (artificial recharge) scenario group can partly revert the present seawater intrusion. From the water budget point of view, compared with the first (do nothing) scenario, for year 2040, the water added to the aquifer by artificial recharge will reduces the amount of water entering the aquifer by seawater intrusion by 81, 77and 72 %, for the three recharge cases, respectively. Meanwhile, the salinity in the Gaza aquifer will be decreased by 15, 32 and 26% for the three cases, respectively.

Restricted dispersal reduces the strength of spatial density dependence in a tropical bird population

Spatial processes could play an important role in density-dependent population regulation because the disproportionate use of poor quality habitats as population size increases is widespread in animal populations-the so-called buffer effect. While the buffer effect patterns and their demographic consequences have been described in a number of wild populations, much less is known about how dispersal affects distribution patterns and ultimately density dependence. Here, we investigated the role of dispersal in spatial density dependence using an extraordinarily detailed dataset from a reintroduced Mauritius kestrel (Falco punctatus) population with a territorial (despotic) breeding system. We show that recruitment rates varied significantly between territories, and that territory occupancy was related to its recruitment rate, both of which are consistent with the buffer effect theory. However, we also show that restricted dispersal affects the patterns of territory occupancy with the territories close to release sites being occupied sooner and for longer as the population has grown than the territories further away. As a result of these dispersal patterns, the strength of spatial density dependence is significantly reduced. We conclude that restricted dispersal can modify spatial density dependence in the wild, which has implications for the way population dynamics are likely to be impacted by environmental change.

Aggregation of parasitism risk in an aphid-parasitoid system: Effects of plant patch size and aphid density

Few studies have linked density dependence of parasitism and the tritrophic environment within which a parasitoid forages. In the non-crop plant-aphid, Centaurea nigra-Uroleucon jaceae system, mixed patterns of density-dependent parasitism by the parasitoids Aphidius funebris and Trioxys centaureae were observed in a survey of a natural population. Breakdown of density-dependent parasitism revealed that density dependence was inverse in smaller colonies but direct in large colonies (>20 aphids), suggesting there is a threshold effect in parasitoid response to aphid density. The CV2 of searching parasitoids was estimated from parasitism data using a hierarchical generalized linear model, and CV2>1 for A. funebris between plant patches, while for T. centaureae CV2>1 within plant patches. In both cases, density independent heterogeneity was more important than density-dependent heterogeneity in parasitism. Parasitism by T. centaureae increased with increasing plant patch size. Manipulation of aphid colony size and plant patch size revealed that parasitism by A. funebris was directly density dependent at the range of colony sizes tested (50-200 initial aphids), and had a strong positive relationship with plant patch size. The effects of plant patch size detected for both species indicate that the tritrophic environment provides a source of host density independent heterogeneity in parasitism, and can modify density-dependent responses. (c) 2007 Gessellschaft fur Okologie. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

The population dynamical consequences of density-dependence in fungal plant pathogens

Almost all stages of a plant pathogen life cycle are potentially density dependent. At small scales and short time spans appropriate to a single-pathogen individual, density dependence can be extremely strong, mediated both by simple resource use, changes in the host due to defence reactions and signals between fungal individuals. In most cases, the consequences are a rise in reproductive rate as the pathogen becomes rarer, and consequently stabilisation of the population dynamics; however, at very low density reproduction may become inefficient, either because it is co-operative or because heterothallic fungi do not form sexual spores. The consequence will be historically determined distributions. On a medium scale, appropriate for example to several generations of a host plant, the factors already mentioned remain important but specialist natural enemies may also start to affect the dynamics detectably. This could in theory lead to complex (e.g. chaotic) dynamics, but in practice heterogeneity of habitat and host is likely to smooth the extreme relationships and make for more stable, though still very variable, dynamics. On longer temporal and longer spatial scales evolutionary responses by both host and pathogen are likely to become important, producing patterns which ultimately depend on the strength of interactions at smaller scales.

Genetic evidence of frequent long-distance recruitment in a vertebrate-dispersed tree

The importance of dispersal for the maintenance of biodiversity, while long-recognized, has remained unresolved. We used molecular markers to measure effective dispersal in a natural population of the vertebrate-dispersed Neotropical tree, Simarouba amara (Simaroubaceae) by comparing the distances between maternal parents and their offspring and comparing gene movement via seed and pollen in the 50 ha plot of the Barro Colorado Island forest, Central Panama. In all cases (parent-pair, mother-offspring, father-offspring, sib-sib) distances between related pairs were significantly greater than distances to nearest possible neighbours within each category. Long-distance seedling establishment was frequent: 74% of assigned seedlings established > 100 m from the maternal parent [mean = 392 +/- 234.6 m (SD), range = 9.3-1000.5 m] and pollen-mediated gene flow was comparable to that of seed [mean = 345.0 +/- 157.7 m (SD), range 57.6-739.7 m]. For S. amara we found approximately a 10-fold difference between distances estimated by inverse modelling and mean seedling recruitment distances (39 m vs. 392 m). Our findings have important implications for future studies in forest demography and regeneration, with most seedlings establishing at distances far exceeding those demonstrated by negative density-dependent effects.

The influence of larval density, food availability and habitat longevity on the life history and population growth rate of the midge Chironomus riparius

Despite long-standing interest in the forms and mechanisms of density dependence, these are still imperfectly understood. However, in a constant environment an increase in density must reduce per capita resource availability, which in turn leads to reduced survival, fecundity and somatic growth rate. Here we report two population experiments examining the density dependent responses under controlled conditions of an important indicator species, Chironomus riparius. The first experiment was run for 35 weeks and was started at low density with replicate populations being fed three different rations. Increased ration reduced generation time and increased population growth rate (pgr) but had no effect on survival, fecundity and female body weight in the first generation. In the second generation there was a six-fold increase in generation time, presumably due to the greatly reduced per capita resource availability as the estimated initial densities of the second generation were 300 times greater than the first. Juvenile survival to emergence, fecundity, adult body weight and pgr declined by 90%, 75%, 35% and 99%, respectively. These large between-generation effects may have obscured the effects of the threefold variation in ration, as only survival to emergence significantly increased with ration in the second generation. These results suggest that some chironomid larvae survive a reduction in resource availability by growing more slowly. In the ephemeral habitats sometimes occupied by C. riparius, the effects of population density may depend crucially on the longevity of the environment. A second experiment was therefore performed to measure pgr from six different starting densities over an eight-week period. The relationship between pgr and density was concave, viewed from above. At densities above 16 larvae per cm(2), less than 1% of the population emerged and no offspring were produced. Under the conditions of experiment 2 - an 8-week habitat lifespan carrying capacity was estimated as 8 larvae per cm(2).

Declining survival rates in a reintroduced population of the Mauritius kestrel: evidence for non-linear density dependence and environmental stochasticity

1. We studied a reintroduced population of the formerly critically endangered Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus Temmink from its inception in 1987 until 2002, by which time the population had attained carrying capacity for the study area. Post-1994 the population received minimal management other than the provision of nestboxes. 2. We analysed data collected on survival (1987-2002) using program MARK to explore the influence of density-dependent and independent processes on survival over the course of the population's development. 3.We found evidence for non-linear, threshold density dependence in juvenile survival rates. Juvenile survival was also strongly influenced by climate, with the temporal distribution of rainfall during the cyclone season being the most influential climatic variable. Adult survival remained constant throughout. 4. Our most parsimonious capture-mark-recapture statistical model, which was constrained by density and climate, explained 75.4% of the temporal variation exhibited in juvenile survival rates over the course of the population's development. 5. This study is an example of how data collected as part of a threatened species recovery programme can be used to explore the role and functional form of natural population regulatory processes. With the improvements in conservation management techniques and the resulting success stories, formerly threatened species offer unique opportunities to further our understanding of the fundamental principles of population ecology.

Time-dependent flows in the coupled solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere system

Concepts of time-dependent flow in the coupled solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere system are discussed and compared with the frequently-adopted steady-state paradigm. Flows are viewed as resulting from departures of the system from equilibrium excited by dayside and nightside reconnection processes, with the flows then taking the system back towards a new equilibrium configuration. The response of the system to reconnection impulses, continuous but unbalanced reconnection and balanced steady-state reconnection are discussed in these terms. It is emphasized that in the time-dependent case the ionospheric and interplanetary electric fields are generally inductively decoupled from each other; a simple mapping of the interplanetary electric field along equipotential field lines into the ionosphere occurs only in the electrostatic steady-state case.

Effect of density on population development in the Amazon River prawn Macrobrachium amazonicum

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Non-newtonian flow and pressure drop of pineapple juice in a plate heat exchanger

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Antler Size of Alaskan Moose Alces alces gigas: Effects of Population Density, Hunter Harvest and Use of Guides

Moose Alces alces gigas in Alaska, USA, exhibit extreme sexual dimorphism, with adult males possessing large, elaborate antlers. Antler size and conformation are influenced by age, nutrition and genetics, and these bony structures serve to establish social rank and affect mating success. Population density, combined with anthropogenic effects such as harvest, is thought to influence antler size. Antler size increased as densities of moose decreased, ostensibly a density-dependent response related to enhanced nutrition at low densities. The vegetation type where moose were harvested also affected antler size, with the largest-antlered males occupying more open habitats. Hunts with guides occurred in areas with low moose density, minimized hunter interference and increased rates of success. Such hunts harvested moose with larger antler spreads than did non-guided hunts. Knowledge and abilities allowed guides to satisfy demands of trophy hunters, who are an integral part of the Alaskan economy. Heavy harvest by humans was also associated with decreased antler size of moose, probably via a downward shift in the age structure of the population resulting in younger males with smaller antlers. Nevertheless, density-dependence was more influential than effects of harvest on age structure in determining antler size of male moose. Indeed, antlers are likely under strong sexual selection, but we demonstrate that resource availability influenced the distribution of these sexually selected characters across the landscape. We argue that understanding population density in relation to carrying capacity (K) and the age structure of males is necessary to interpret potential consequences of harvest on the genetics of moose and other large herbivores. Our results provide researchers and managers with a better understanding of variables that affect the physical condition, antler size, and perhaps the genetic composition of populations, which may be useful in managing and modeling moose populations.

Genetic dynamics across early life stages in the tropical tree Prunus africana (Rosaceae)

In many plant species, the genetic template of early life-stages is formed by animal-mediated pollination and seed dispersal and has profound impact on further recruitment and population dynamics. Understanding the impact of pollination and seed dispersal on genetic patterns is a central issue in plant population biology. In my thesis, I investigated (i) contemporary dispersal and gene flow distances as well as (ii) genetic diversity and spatial genetic structure (SGS) across subsequent recruitment stages in a population of the animal-pollinated and dispersed tree Prunus africana in Kakamega Forest, West Kenya. Using microsatellite markers and parentage analyses, I inferred distances of pollen dispersal (father-to-mother), seed dispersal/maternal gene flow (mother-to-offspring) as well as paternal gene flow (father-to-offspring) for four early life stages of the species (seeds and fruits, current year seedlings, seedlings ≤ 3yr, seedlings > 3yr). Distances of pollen and seed dispersal as well as paternal gene flow were significantly shorter than expected from the spatial arrangement of trees and sampling plots. They were not affected by the density of conspecific trees in the surrounding. At the propagule stage, mean pollen dispersal distances were considerably (23-fold) longer than seed dispersal distances, and paternal gene flow distances exceeded maternal gene flow by a factor of 25. Seed dispersal distances were remarkably restricted, potentially leading to a strong initial SGS. The initial genetic template created by pollination and seed dispersal was extensively altered during later recruitment stages. Potential Janzen-Connell effects led to markedly increasing distances between offspring and both parental trees in older life stages. This showed that distance and density-dependent mortality factors are not exclusively related to the mother tree, but also to the father. Across subsequent recruitment stages, the pollen to seed dispersal ratio and the paternal to maternal gene flow ratio dropped to 2.1 and 3.4, respectively, in seedlings > 3yr. The relative changes in effective pollen dispersal, seed dispersal, and paternal gene flow distances across recruitment stages elucidate the mechanisms affecting the contribution of the two processes pollen and seed dispersal to overall gene flow. Using the same six microsatellite loci, I analyzed genetic diversity and SGS across five life stages, from seed rain to adults. Levels of genetic diversity within the studied P. africana population were comparable to other Prunus species and did not vary across life stages. In congruence with the short seed dispersal distances, I found significant SGS in all life stages. SGS decreased from seed and early seedling stages to older juvenile stages, and it was higher in adults than in late juveniles of the next generation. A comparison of the data with direct assessments of contemporary gene flow patterns indicate that distance- or density-dependent mortality, potentially due to Janzen-Connell effects, led to the initial decrease in SGS. Intergeneration variation in SGS could have been driven by variation in demographic processes, the effect of overlapping generations, and local selection processes. Overall, my study showed that complex sequential processes during recruitment contribute to the spatial genetic structure of tree populations. It highlights the importance of a multistage perspective for a comprehensive understanding of the impact of animal-mediated pollen and seed dispersal on spatial population dynamics and genetic patterns of trees.

drp, A novel cell density regulated protein

Growing cells are continuously processing signals of all varieties and responding to these signals by changes in cellular gene expression. One signal that cells in close proximity relay to each other is cell-cell contact. Non-transformed cells respond to cell-cell contact by arrest of growth and entry into G$\sb0,$ a process known as contact inhibition. Transformed cells do not respond to contact inhibition and continue to grow to high cell density, forming foci when in cell culture and tumors in the living organism. The events surrounding the generation, transduction, and response to cellular contact are poorly understood. In the present study, a novel gene product, drp, is shown to be expressed at high levels in cultured cells at high cell density. This density regulated protein, drp, has an apparent molecular weight of 70 kDa. Northern analysis shows drp to be highly expressed in cardiac and skeletal muscle and least abundant in lung and kidney tissues. By homology to two independently derived sequence tagged sites (STSs) used in the human genome project, drp or a closely related sequence maps to human chromosome 12. Density-dependent increases in drp expression have been demonstrated in six different cell lines including NIH 3T3, Hela and a human teratocarcinoma cell line, PA-1. Cells exhibit increased drp expression both when they are plated at increasing concentrations per unit area, or plated at low density and allowed to grow naturally to higher cell density. Cells at high density can exhibit several phenotypes including growth arrest, accumulation of soluble factors in the media, and increased numbers of cell contacts. Growth arrest by serum starvation or TGF-$\beta$ treatment fails to produce an increase in drp expression. Similarly, treatment of low density cells with conditioned media from high density cells fails to elicit drp expression. These results argue that neither soluble factors accumulated or expressed at high density nor simple exit from the cell cycle is sufficient to produce an increase in drp expression. The expression of drp appears to be uniquely regulated by cell density alone. ^

EVOLUTION OF DOMINANCE UNDER FREQUENCY-DEPENDENT INTRASPECIFIC COMPETITION IN AN ASSORTATIVELY MATING POPULATION

We study the evolution of higher levels of dominance as a response to negative frequency-dependent selection. In contrast to previous studies, we focus on the effect of assortative mating on the evolution of dominance under frequency-dependent intraspecific competition. We analyze a two-locus two-allele model, in which the primary locus has a major effect on a quantitative trait that is under a mixture of frequency-independent stabilizing selection, density-dependent selection, and frequency-dependent selection caused by intraspecific competition for a continuum of resources. The second (modifier) locus determines the degree of dominance at the trait level. Additionally, the population mates assortatively with respect to similarities in the ecological trait. Our analysis shows that the parameter region in which dominance can be established decreases if small levels of assortment are introduced. In addition, the degree of dominance that can be established also decreases. In contrast, if assortment is intermediate, sexual selection for extreme types can be established, which leads to evolution of higher levels of dominance than under random mating. For modifiers with large effects, intermediate levels of assortative mating are most favorable for the evolution of dominance. For large modifiers, the speed of fixation can even be higher for intermediate levels of assortative mating than for random mating.

Flow and fracture behaviour of high performance alloys

Based on our needs, that is to say, through precise simulation of the impact phenomena that may occur inside a jet engine turbine with an explicit non-linear finite element code, four new material models are postulated. Each one of is calibrated for four high-performance alloys that can be encountered in a modern jet engine. A new uncoupled material model for high strain and ballistic is proposed. Based on a Johnson-Cook type model, the proposed formulation introduces the effect of the third deviatoric invariant by means of three different Lode angle dependent functions. The Lode dependent functions are added to both plasticity and failure models. The postulated model is calibrated for a 6061-T651 aluminium alloy with data taken from the literature. The fracture pattern predictability of the JCX material model is shown performing numerical simulations of various quasi-static and dynamic tests. As an extension of the above-mentioned model, a modification in the thermal softening behaviour due to phase transformation temperatures is developed (JCXt). Additionally, a Lode angle dependent flow stress is defined. Analysing the phase diagram and high temperature tests performed, phase transformation temperatures of the FV535 stainless steel are determined. The postulated material model constants for the FV535 stainless steel are calibrated. A coupled elastoplastic-damage material model for high strain and ballistic applications is presented (JCXd). A Lode angle dependent function is added to the equivalent plastic strain to failure definition of the Johnson-Cook failure criterion. The weakening in the elastic law and in the Johnson-Cook type constitutive relation implicitly introduces the Lode angle dependency in the elastoplastic behaviour. The material model is calibrated for precipitation hardened Inconel 718 nickel-base superalloy. The combination of a Lode angle dependent failure criterion with weakened constitutive equations is proven to predict fracture patterns of the mechanical tests performed and provide reliable results. A transversely isotropic material model for directionally solidified alloys is presented. The proposed yield function is based a single linear transformation of the stress tensor. The linear operator weighs the degree of anisotropy of the yield function. The elastic behaviour, as well as the hardening, are considered isotropic. To model the hardening, a Johnson-Cook type relation is adopted. A material vector is included in the model implementation. The failure is modelled with the Cockroft-Latham failure criterion. The material vector allows orienting the reference orientation in any other that the user may need. The model is calibrated for the MAR-M 247 directionally solidified nickel-base superalloy.