El m??todo Delphi

Resumen basado en el de la publicaci??n

Exploring the determinants of CAP reform: A Delphi survey of key decision-makers

A panel of key decision-makers, closely involved in the 1992, 1999 and 2003 CAP reforms, participated in a Delphi survey designed to ascertain what had prompted the European Commission to launch these reform initiatives and what factors were relevant in determining the reform packages subsequently decided by the Council.

Understanding construction competitiveness: the initial results of a Delphi survey in Finland, Sweden and the UK

The competitiveness of the construction industry is an important issue for many countries as the industry makes up a substantial part of their GDP – about 8% in the UK. A number of competitiveness studies have been undertaken at company, industry and national levels. However, there has been little focus on sustainable competitiveness and the many factors that are involved. This paper addresses that need by investigating what construction industry experts consider to be the most important factors of construction industry competitiveness. It does so by conducting a Delphi survey among industry experts in Finland, Sweden and the UK. A list of 158 factors was compiled from competitiveness reports by institutions such as World Economic Forum and International Institute of Management Development, as well as from explorative workshops in the countries involved in the study. For each of the countries, experts with different perspectives of the industry, including, consultants, contractors and clients, were asked to select their 30 most influential factors. They then ranked their chosen factors in order of importance for the competitiveness of their construction industry. The findings after the first round of the Delphi process underline the complexity of the term competitiveness and the wide range of factors that are considered important contributors to competitiveness. The results also indicate that what are considered to be the most important factors of competitiveness is likely to differ from one country to another.

Thessaly and Macedon at Delphi

The Daochos Monument at Delphi has received some scholarly attention from an art-historical and archaeological perspective; this article, however, examines it rather as a reflection of contemporary Thessalian history and discourse, an aspect which has been almost entirely neglected. Through its visual imagery and its inscriptions, the monument adopts and adapts long-standing Thessalian themes of governance and identity, and achieves a delicate balance with Macedonian concerns to forge a symbolic rapprochement between powers and cultures in the Greek north. Its dedicator, Daochos, emerges as far more than just the puppet of Philip II of Macedon. This hostile and largely Demosthenic characterisation, which remains influential even in modern historiography, is far from adequate in allowing for an understanding of the relationship between Thessalian and Macedonian motivations at this time, or of the importance of Delphi as the pan-Hellenic setting of their interaction. Looking closely at the Daochos Monument instead allows for a rare glimpse into the Thessalian perspective in all its complexity.

Content validation for level of use of feature rich systems: a Delphi study of electronic medical records systems

Introduction. Feature usage is a pre-requisite to realising the benefits of investments in feature rich systems. We propose that conceptualising the dependent variable 'system use' as 'level of use' and specifying it as a formative construct has greater value for measuring the post-adoption use of feature rich systems. We then validate the content of the construct as a first step in developing a research instrument to measure it. The context of our study is the post-adoption use of electronic medical records (EMR) by primary care physicians. Method. Initially, a literature review of the empirical context defines the scope based on prior studies. Having identified core features from the literature, they are further refined with the help of experts in a consensus seeking process that follows the Delphi technique. Results.The methodology was successfully applied to EMRs, which were selected as an example of feature rich systems. A review of EMR usage and regulatory standards provided the feature input for the first round of the Delphi process. A panel of experts then reached consensus after four rounds, identifying ten task-based features that would be indicators of level of use. Conclusions. To study why some users deploy more advanced features than others, theories of post-adoption require a rich formative dependent variable that measures level of use. We have demonstrated that a context sensitive literature review followed by refinement through a consensus seeking process is a suitable methodology to validate the content of this dependent variable. This is the first step of instrument development prior to statistical confirmation with a larger sample.

Fatores críticos de sucesso na operação de escritórios de gerenciamento de projeto (PMOs): uma abordagem Delphi

Projetos são precursores de novos produtos, serviços e processos organizacionais. Sendo assim, a gestão de projetos aparece como uma grande oportunidade para organizações nos diversos ramos de atividade. O aumento da complexidade do mundo dos negócios e a crescente competitividade fazem com que as empresas tenham que responder cada vez mais rápida e eficientemente aos estímulos externos. Neste contexto, as falhas na execução dos projetos muitas vezes têm resultados desastrosos. Esta dissertação tem por objetivo identificar e analisar os fatores críticos de sucesso para a operação de Escritórios de Gerenciamento de Projetos (Project Management Office – PMO) nas organizações. O PMO permite às empresas usufruir dos benefícios da integração de processos, assim como informar a alta administração sobre o andamento do seu portfólio de projetos, buscando competitividade no mercado com o sucesso de seus projetos. A pesquisa qualitativa (espontânea) teve participação de especialistas brasileiros e estrangeiros, reconhecidos pelo PMI como pessoas destacadas (consultores especializados) em gerenciamento de projetos. Na pesquisa Delphi, quarenta e três especialistas de vários países foram submetidos a um questionário de vinte e cinco perguntas minuciosamente preparadas, a fim de extrair o máximo possível de informações consideradas críticas nas atividades atuais e tendências de PMOs nas empresas. A pesquisa Delphi foi realizada em duas rodadas e concluída com recomendações efetivas, validadas internacionalmente. Como resultado do trabalho, foi desenvolvido um estudo que poderá ser utilizado como referência para a operação de Escritórios de Gerenciamento de Projetos (PMO) nas empresas sem distinção de segmento.

How the delphi and AHP methods are aiding to define the critical success factors priorities in a digital factory project implementation

Digital factory is a concept that offers a collaborative approach to enhance product and production engineering processes through simulation. Products, processes and resources are modeled to be used to develop and test the product conception and manufacturing processes, before their use in the real factory. The purpose of this paper is to present the steps to identify the Critical Success Factors (CSF) priorities in a digital factory project implementation in a Brazilian company and how the Delphi and AHP Methods are aiding to identify these CSF priorities. Copyright © 2008 SAE International.

Validação de constructo de tecnologia educativa para pacientes mediante aplicação da técnica Delphi

OBJETIVO: Descrever o processo de validação de uma tecnologia educativa para pacientes submetidos à cirurgia ortognática, mediante a aplicação da técnica Delphi. MÉTODOS: Participaram do estudo, dez juízes (quatro cirurgiões bucomaxilofaciais, duas enfermeiras, duas nutricionistas e duas fonoaudiólogas) que indicaram os assuntos a serem abordados no material destinado à primeira fase da técnica Delphi. Após a construção do material e a obtenção dos resultados da primeira fase, iniciou-se as segunda e terceira fases dessa técnica com validação da pertinência das informações contidas nessa tecnologia educativa. RESULTADOS: Na segunda rodada, obteve-se, pelo menos, 90,0% de concordância em todas as categorias. Na terceira, houve um aumento de 12% para o item conteúdo, melhora de 6,7% em linguagem, de 12,5% em ilustrações, de 3,3% no layout, de 10% em cultura, mantendo-se constante o item motivação. CONCLUSÃO: A técnica Delphi, pode ser uma importante ferramenta na construção e validação de tecnologias educativas.

Studies of Heavy Baryons in DELPHI and Radiation Monitoring in DØ

Between the years 1992 and 1995 about 3.5 million hadronic Z decays were collected by the DELPHI detector at CERN. This data has been used to measure the production and lifetime of the beauty strange baryon Ξb, in the inclusive decay channel Ξb →Ξ-ℓ- X. The Ξ- baryon was reconstructed through the decay Ξ- → Λ π-, using a constrained fit method for cascade decays. An iterative discriminant analysis was used for the Ξb selection. A search for the Ξb baryon was also performed using an alternative method of reconstructing the Ξ- baryon. A measurement of the production of the charmed strange baryon Ξc in the decay channel Ξc → Ξ-π+ using the same data is also presented. The radiation monitoring system of the Silicon Microstrip Tracker in the DØ detector is studied and used to estimate the radiation dose received by the Silicon detector during normal running conditions of the TeVatron accelerator.