An Ensemble Kalman Filter multi-tracer assimilation: Determining uncertain ocean model parameters for improved climate-carbon cycle projections

An Ensemble Kalman Filter is applied to assimilate observed tracer fields in various combinations in the Bern3D ocean model. Each tracer combination yields a set of optimal transport parameter values that are used in projections with prescribed CO2 stabilization pathways. The assimilation of temperature and salinity fields yields a too vigorous ventilation of the thermocline and the deep ocean, whereas the inclusion of CFC-11 and radiocarbon improves the representation of physical and biogeochemical tracers and of ventilation time scales. Projected peak uptake rates and cumulative uptake of CO2 by the ocean are around 20% lower for the parameters determined with CFC-11 and radiocarbon as additional target compared to those with salinity and temperature only. Higher surface temperature changes are simulated in the Greenland–Norwegian–Iceland Sea and in the Southern Ocean when CFC-11 is included in the Ensemble Kalman model tuning. These findings highlights the importance of ocean transport calibration for the design of near-term and long-term CO2 emission mitigation strategies and for climate projections.

Ocean (De)oxygenation Across the Last Deglaciation: Insights for the Future

Anthropogenic warming is expected to drive oxygen out of the ocean as the water temperature rises and the rate of exchange between subsurface waters and the atmosphere slows due to enhanced upper ocean density stratification. Observations from recent decades are tantalizingly consistent with this prediction, though these changes remain subtle in the face of natural variability. Earth system model projections unanimously predict a long-term decrease in the global ocean oxygen inventory, but show regional discrepancies, particularly in the most oxygen-depleted waters, owing to the complex interplay between oxygen supply pathways and oxygen consumption. The geological record provides an orthogonal perspective, showing how the oceanic oxygen content varied in response to prior episodes of climate change. These past changes were much slower than the current, anthropogenic change, but can help to appraise sensitivities, and point toward potentially dominant mechanisms of change. Consistent with the model projections, marine sediments recorded an overall expansion of low-oxygen waters in the upper ocean as it warmed at the end of the last ice age. This expansion was not linearly related with temperature, though, but reached a deoxygenation extreme midway through the warming. Meanwhile, the deep ocean became better oxygenated, opposite the general expectation. These observations require that significant changes in apparent oxygen utilization occurred, suggesting that they will also be important in the future.

Biological and physical controls in the Southern Ocean on past millennial-scale atmospheric CO2 changes

Millennial-scale climate changes during the last glacial period and deglaciation were accompanied by rapid changes in atmospheric CO2 that remain unexplained. While the role of the Southern Ocean as a ’control valve’ on ocean–atmosphere CO2 exchange has been emphasized, the exact nature of this role, in particular the relative contributions of physical (for example, ocean dynamics and air–sea gas exchange) versus biological processes (for example, export productivity), remains poorly constrained. Here we combine reconstructions of bottom-water [O2], export production and 14C ventilation ages in the sub-Antarctic Atlantic, and show that atmospheric CO2 pulses during the last glacial- and deglacial periods were consistently accompanied by decreases in the biological export of carbon and increases in deep-ocean ventilation via southern-sourced water masses. These findings demonstrate how the Southern Ocean’s ’organic carbon pump’ has exerted a tight control on atmospheric CO2, and thus global climate, specifically via a synergy of both physical and biological processes.

Strike-slip faults mediate the rise of crustal-derived fluids and mud volcanism in the deep sea

We report on newly discovered mud volcanoes located at about 4500 m water depth 90 km west of the deformation front of the accretionary wedge of the Gulf of Cadiz, and thus outside of their typical geotectonic environment. Seismic data suggest that fluid flow is mediated by a >400-km-long strike-slip fault marking the transcurrent plate boundary between Africa and Eurasia. Geochemical data (Cl, B, Sr, 87Sr/86Sr, Delta18O, DeltaD) reveal that fluids originate in oceanic crust older than 140 Ma. On their rise to the surface, these fluids receive strong geochemical signals from recrystallization of Upper Jurassic carbonates and clay-mineral dehydration in younger terrigeneous units. At present, reports of mud volcanoes in similar deep-sea settings are rare, but given that the large area of transform-type plate boundaries has been barely investigated, such pathways of fluid discharge may provide an important, yet unappreciated link between the deeply buried oceanic crust and the deep ocean.

Model results of ocean physical field of the reference state and the targets in NetCDF format

In a feasibility study, the potential of proxy data for the temperature and salinity during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, about 19 000 to 23 000 years before present) in constraining the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) with a general ocean circulation model was explored. The proxy data were simulated by drawing data from four different model simulations at the ocean sediment core locations of the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean surface (MARGO) project, and perturbing these data with realistic noise estimates. The results suggest that our method has the potential to provide estimates of the past strength of the AMOC even from sparse data, but in general, paleo-sea-surface temperature data without additional prior knowledge about the ocean state during the LGM is not adequate to constrain the model. On the one hand, additional data in the deep-ocean and salinity data are shown to be highly important in estimating the LGM circulation. On the other hand, increasing the amount of surface data alone does not appear to be enough for better estimates. Finally, better initial guesses to start the state estimation procedure would greatly improve the performance of the method. Indeed, with a sufficiently good first guess, just the sea-surface temperature data from the MARGO project promise to be sufficient for reliable estimates of the strength of the AMOC.

Stable carbon and oxygen isotope records of Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi in DSDP and ODP sites in the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean

Carbon isotopic records from benthic foraminifera are used to map patterns of deep ocean circulation between 3 and 2 million years ago, the interval when significant northern hemisphere glaciation began. The delta18O and delta13C data from four Atlantic sites (552, 607, 610, and 704) and one Pacific site (677) show that global cooling over this interval was associated with increased suppression of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation. However, the relative strength of NADW production was always greater than is observed during late Pleistocene glaciations when extreme decreases in NADW are observed in the deep North Atlantic. Our data indicate that an increase in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient associated with the onset of northern hemisphere glaciation did not intensify deepwater production in the North Atlantic but rather the opposite occurred. This is not unexpected as it is the "warm high-salinity" characteristic, rather than the "low temperature", of thermocline waters that is critical to the deepwater formation process in this region today.

Benthic foraminiferal fauna and isotope record in Holocene sediments of the northwest Indian Ocean

Historically, the Holocene has been considered an interval of relatively stable climate. However, recent studies from the northern Arabian Sea (Netherlands Indian Ocean Program 905) suggested high-amplitude climate shifts in the early and middle Holocene based on faunal and benthic isotopic proxy records. We examined benthic foraminiferal faunal and stable isotopic data from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 723 and total organic carbon data from ODP Site 724, Oman Margin (808 and 593 m water depths, respectively). At Site 723 the mid-Holocene shift in d18O values of infaunal benthic species Uvigerina peregrina (1.4 per mil) is 3 times larger than that of epifaunal benthic species Cibicides kullenbergi recorded at Site NIOP 905 off Somalia. However, none of the five other benthic species we measured at Hole 723A exhibits such a shift in d18O. We speculate that the late Holocene d18O decrease in U. peregrina represents species-specific changes in ecological habitat or food preference in response to changes in surface and deep ocean circulation. While the stable isotopic data do not appear to indicate a middle Holocene climatic shift, our total organic carbon and benthic faunal assemblage data do indicate that the early Holocene deep Arabian Sea was influenced by increased ventilation perhaps by North Atlantic Deep Water and/or Circumpolar Deep Water incursions into the Indian Ocean, leading to remineralization of organic matter and a relatively weak early Holocene oxygen minimum zone in the northwest Arabian Sea in spite of strong summer monsoon circulation.

Radiocarbon ages and plateau definitions of sediments from the abyssal ocean

Ice core records demonstrate a glacial-interglacial atmospheric CO2 increase by ~100 ppm, while 14C calibration efforts document a strong decrease in atmospheric 14C concentration during this period. A calculated transfer of ~530 Gt of 14C depleted carbon is required to produce the deglacial coeval rise of carbon in the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere. This amount is usually ascribed to oceanic carbon release, although the actual mechanisms remained elusive, since an adequately old and carbon-enriched deep-ocean reservoir seemed unlikely. Here we present a new, though still fragmentary, ocean-wide d14C dataset showing that during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS-1) the maximum 14C age difference between ocean deep waters and the atmosphere exceeded the modern values by up to 1500 14C yr, in the extreme reaching 5100 14C yr. Below 2000 m depth the 14C ventilation age of modern ocean waters is directly linked to the concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). We propose as working hypothesis that the modern regression of DIC vs d14C also applies for LGM times, which implies that a mean LGM aging by ~600 14C yr corresponded to a global rise of ~85-115 µmol DIC/kg in the deep ocean. Thus, the prolonged residence time of ocean deep waters may indeed have made it possible to absorb an additional ~730-980 Gt DIC, one third of which possibly originated from intermediate waters. We also infer that LGM deep-water O2 dropped to suboxic values of <10µmol/kg in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, possibly also in the subpolar North Pacific. The outlined deglacial transfer of the extra aged, deep-ocean carbon to the atmosphere via the dynamic ocean-atmosphere carbon exchange would be sufficient to account for two trends observed, (1) for the increase in atmospheric CO2 and (2) for the 190-permil drop in atmospheric d14C during the so-called HS-1 'Mystery Interval', when atmospheric 14C production rates were largely constant.

3He/4He and 4He/20Ne ratios in pore water and gas in Pacific deep-sea sediments

We have measured the 3He/3He and 3He/20 Ne ratios of thirty-nine pore water and gas samples in deep-sea sediments collected at twelve sites on the Pacific Ocean bottom during the cruises of Deep Sea Drilling Project Legs 87, 89, 90 and 92. The 3He/4He and 4He/20Ne ratios vary from 0.000000215 to 0.00000165 and from 0.29 to 20, respectively. He in the sample is composed of four components: (1) atmospheric He dissolved in seawater; (2) atmospheric He with mantle-derived He in Pacific bottom water; (3) in situ radiogenic He in the sediment; and (4) crustal He in the basement rock. Assuming that the 20Ne contents are constant with the value of seawater, the depth variations in the 4He/20Ne ratios at five Sites, 583D, 594, 597A, 598A and 504B, may provide useful information on 4He flux at the ocean bottom. The estimated 4He fluxes vary from 2000 to 40000 atoms cm**-2 s**-1 and are one to three orders of magnitude less than those calculated from the excess He in deep ocean water. An overall similarity between the geographical distribution of the 3He/4He ratios and heat flow data is found in the study area, between the East Pacific Rise across the Pacific Ocean and the Japanese Islands. The tendency is well explained by a conventional sea-floor spreading model.

Deep water formation in the North Pacific and deglacial CO2 rise

Deep water formation in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean is widely thought to influence deglacial CO2 rise and climate change; here we suggest that deep water formation in the North Pacific may also play an important role. We present paired radiocarbon and boron isotope data from foraminifera from sediment core MD02-2489 at 3640 m in the North East Pacific. These show a pronounced excursion during Heinrich Stadial 1, with benthic-planktic radiocarbon offsets dropping to ~350 years, accompanied by a decrease in benthic d11B. We suggest this is driven by the onset of deep convection in the North Pacific, which mixes young shallow waters to depth, old deep waters to the surface, and low-pH water from intermediate depths into the deep ocean. This deep water formation event was likely driven by an increase in surface salinity, due to subdued atmospheric/monsoonal freshwater flux during Heinrich Stadial 1. The ability of North Pacific Deep Water (NPDW) formation to explain the excursions seen in our data is demonstrated in a series of experiments with an intermediate complexity Earth system model. These experiments also show that breakdown of stratification in the North Pacific leads to a rapid ~30 ppm increase in atmospheric CO2, along with decreases in atmospheric d13C and D14C, consistent with observations of the early deglaciation. Our inference of deep water formation is based mainly on results from a single sediment core, and our boron isotope data are unavoidably sparse in the key HS1 interval, so this hypothesis merits further testing. However we note that there is independent support for breakdown of stratification in shallower waters during this period, including a minimum in d15N, younging in intermediate water 14C, and regional warming. We also re-evaluate deglacial changes in North Pacific productivity and carbonate preservation in light of our new data, and suggest that the regional pulse of export production observed during the Bølling-Allerød is promoted by relatively stratified conditions, with increased light availability and a shallow, potent nutricline. Overall, our work highlights the potential of NPDW formation to play a significant and hitherto unrealized role in deglacial climate change and CO2 rise.

Dissolved and dissolvable iron concentrations and ligand characteristics in samples taken during POLARSTERN expedition ARK-XXII/2 to the Arctic Ocean

The speciation of iron was investigated in three shelf seas and three deep basins of the Arctic Ocean in 2007. The dissolved fraction (<0.2 µm) and a fraction < 1000 kDa were considered here. In addition, unfiltered samples were analyzed. Between 74 and 83% of dissolved iron was present in the fraction < 1000 kDa at all stations and depth, except at the chlorophyll maximum (42-64%). Distinct trends in iron concentrations and ligand characteristics were observed from the shelf seas toward the central deep basins, with a decrease of total dissolvable iron ([TDFe] > 3 nM on the shelves and [TDFe] < 2 nM in the Makarov Basin). A relative enrichment of particulate Fe toward the bottom was revealed at all stations, indicating Fe export toward the deep ocean. In deep waters, dissolved ligands became less saturated with Fe (increase of [Excess L]/[Fe]) from the Nansen Basin via the Amundsen Basin toward the Makarov Basin. This trend was explained by the reactivity of the ligands, higher (log alpha > 13.5) in the Nansen and Amundsen basins than in the Makarov Basin (log alpha <13) where the sources of Fe and ligands were limited. The ligands became nearly saturated with depth in the Amundsen and Nansen Basins, favoring Fe removal in the deep ocean, whereas in the deep Makarov Basin, they became unsaturated with depth. Still here scavenging occurred. Although scavenging of Fe was attenuated by the presence of unsaturated organic ligands, their low reactivity in combination with a lack of sources of Fe in the Makarov Basin might be the reason of a net export of Fe to the sediment.

Chemical composition of volcanic glass of some tephra layers in Northeastern Pacific Ocean

Five widespread upper Cenozoic tephra layers that are found within continental sediments of the western United States have been correlated with tephra layers in marine sediments in the Humboldt and Ventura basins of coastal California by similarities in major-and trace-element abundances; four of these layers have also been identified in deep-ocean sediments at DSDP sites 34, 36, 173, and 470 in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. These layers, erupted from vents in the Yellowstone National Park area of Wyoming and Idaho (Y), the Cascade Range of the Pacific Northwest (C), and the Long Valley area, California (L), are the Huckleberry Ridge ash bed (2.0 Ma, Y), Rio Dell ash bed (ca. 1.5 Ma, C), Bishop ash bed (0.74 Ma, L), Lava Creek B ash bed (0.62 Ma, Y), and Loleta ash bed (ca. 0.4 Ma, C). The isochronous nature of these beds allows direct comparison of chronologic and climatic data in a variety of depositional environments. For example, the widespread Bishop ash bed is correlated from proximal localities near Bishop in east-central California, where it is interbedded with volcanic and glacial deposits, to lacustrine beds near Tecopa, southeastern California, to deformed on-shore marine strata near Ventura, southwestern California, to deep-ocean sediments at site 470 in the eastern Pacific Ocean west of northern Mexico. The correlations allow us to compare isotopic ages determined for the tephra layers with ages of continental and marine biostratigraphic zones determined by magnetostratigraphy and other numerical age control and also provide iterative checks for available age control. Relative age variations of as much as 0.5 m.y. exist between marine biostratigraphic datums [for example, highest occurrence level of Discoaster brouweri and Calcidiscus tropicus (= C. macintyrei)], as determined from sedimentation rate curves derived from other age control available at each of several sites. These discrepancies may be due to several factors, among which are (1) diachronism of the lowest and highest occurrence levels of marine faunal and floral species with latitude because of ecologic thresholds, (2) upward reworking of older forms in hemipelagic sections adjacent to the tectonically active coast of the western United States and other similar analytical problems in identification of biostratigraphic and magnetostratigraphic datums, (3) dissolution of microfossils or selective diagenesis of some taxa, (4) lack of precision in isotopic age calibration of these datums, (5) errors in isotopic ages of tephra beds, and (6) large variations in sedimentation rates or hiatuses in stratigraphic sections that result in age errors of interpolated datums. Correlation of tephra layers between on-land marine and deep-ocean deposits indicates that some biostratigraphic datums (diatom and calcareous nannofossil) may be truly time transgressive because at some sites, they are found above and, at other sites, below the same tephra layers.

A deep-sea coral record of the North Atlantic

Our record of Younger Dryas intermediate-depth seawater D14C from North Atlantic deep-sea corals supports a link between abrupt climate change and intermediate ocean variability. Our data show that northern source intermediate water (~1700 m) was partially replaced by 14C-depleted southern source water at the onset of the event, consistent with a reduction in the rate of North Atlantic Deep Water formation. This transition requires the existence of large, mobile gradients of D14C in the ocean during the Younger Dryas. The D14C water column profile from Keigwin (2004) provides direct evidence for the presence of one such gradient at the beginning of the Younger Dryas (~12.9 ka), with a 100 per mil offset between shallow (<~2400 m) and deep water. Our early Younger Dryas data are consistent with this profile and also show a D14C inversion, with 35 per mil more enriched water at ~2400 m than at ~1700 m. This feature is probably the result of mixing between relatively well 14C ventilated northern source water and more poorly 14C ventilated southern source intermediate water, which is slightly shallower. Over the rest of the Younger Dryas our intermediate water/deepwater coral D14C data gradually increase, while the atmosphere D14C drops. For a very brief interval at ~12.0 ka and at the end of the Younger Dryas (11.5 ka), intermediate water D14C (~1200 m) approached atmospheric D14C. These enriched D14C results suggest an enhanced initial D14C content of the water and demonstrate the presence of large lateral D14C gradients in the intermediate/deep ocean in addition to the sharp vertical shift at ~2500 m. The transient D14C enrichment at ~12.0 ka occurred in the middle of the Younger Dryas and demonstrates that there is at least one time when the intermediate/deep ocean underwent dramatic change but with much smaller effects in other paleoclimatic records.

Global Ocean Particulate Organic Carbon flux merged with satellite parameters

The efficiency of the biological pump of carbon to the deep ocean depends largely on the biologically mediated export of carbon from the surface ocean and its remineralization with depth. Global satellite studies have primarily focused on chlorophyll concentration and net primary production (NPP) to understand the role of phytoplankton in these processes. Recent satellite retrievals of phytoplankton composition now allow for the size of phytoplankton cells to be considered. Here, we improve understanding of phytoplankton size structure impacts on particle export, remineralization and transfer. Particulate organic carbon (POC) flux observations from sediment traps and 234Th are compiled across the global ocean. Annual climatologies of NPP, percent microplankton, and POC flux at four time series locations and within biogeochemical provinces are constructed, and sinking velocities are calculated to align surface variables with POC flux at depth. Parameters that characterize POC flux vs. depth (export flux ratio, labile fraction, remineralization length scale) are then fit to the aligned dataset. Times of the year dominated by different size compositions are identified and fit separately in regions of the ocean where phytoplankton cell size showed enough dynamic range over the annual cycle. Considering all data together, our findings support the paradigm of high export flux but low transfer efficiency in more productive regions and vice versa for oligotrophic regions. However, when parsing by dominant size class, we find periods dominated by small cells to have both greater export flux and lower transfer efficiency than periods when large cells comprise a greater proportion of the phytoplankton community.

Objective Mapping of Argo data in the Weddell Gyre: a gridded dataset of upper ocean water properties, link to data files in NetCDF format

The Weddell Gyre plays a crucial role in the regulation of climate by transferring heat into the deep ocean through deep and bottom water mass formation. However, our understanding of Weddell Gyre water mass properties is limited to regions of data availability, primarily along the Prime Meridian. The aim is to provide a dataset of the upper water column properties of the entire Weddell Gyre. Objective mapping was applied to Argo float data in order to produce spatially gridded, time composite maps of temperature and salinity for fixed pressure levels ranging from 50 to 2000 dbar, as well as temperature, salinity and pressure at the level of the sub-surface temperature maximum. While the data are currently too limited to incorporate time into the gridded structure, the data are extensive enough to produce maps of the entire region across three time composite periods (2002-2005, 2006-2009 and 2010-2013), which can be used to determine how representative conclusions drawn from data collected along general RV transect lines are on a gyre scale perspective. The time composite data sets are provided as netCDF files; one for each time period. Mapped fields of conservative temperature, absolute salinity and potential density are provided for 41 vertical pressure levels. The above variables as well as pressure are provided at the level of the sub-surface temperature maximum. Corresponding mapping errors are also included in the netCDF files. Further details are provided in the global attributes, such as the unit variables and structure of the corresponding data array (i.e. latitude x longitude x vertical pressure level). In addition, all files ending in "_potTpSal" provide mapped fields of potential temperature and practical salinity.