Modelling the relationship between local logistics management decisions and overall supply chain performance:A research agenda

Supply chains are advocated widely as being the new units for commercial competition and developments have made the sharing of supply chain wide information increasingly common. Most organisations however still make operational decisions intended to maximise local organisational performance. With improved information sharing a holistic focus for operational decisions should now be possible. The development of a pan supply chain performance framework requires an examination of the conditions under which holistic-decisions provide benefits to either the individual enterprise or the complete supply chain. This paper presents the background and supporting methodology for a study of the impact of an overall supply chain performance metric framework upon local logistics decisions and the conditions under which such a framework would improve overall supply chain performance. The methodology concludes a simulation approach using a functionally extended Gensym's e-SCOR model, together with case based triangulation, to be optimum. Copyright © 2007 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

A piaci normák sérülése, üzleti döntések és a vállalati hatékonyság (Violation of market norms, business decisions and firms’ efficiency)

Az üzleti vállalkozások környezetére vonatkozó előfeltevések és ezek érvényesülése keretet szab az üzleti döntésekhez és hat a teljesítményre. A cikkben (a feltételezett, illetve elvárt) piaci normák sérülésének hatékonysági következményeit vizsgálja a szerző. Kiindulásként értelmezi a vállalati hatékonyság fogalmát és külső befolyásoló tényezőit. Ezt követően rendszerezi a nem normasértő üzleti döntéshozók lehetséges válaszait a piaci szereplők (versenytársak, üzleti partnerek) normasértéseire, kitérve arra is, hogy ez milyen hatást gyakorol a hatékonyságra. _______ The decisions and the performance of business corporations are not independent of their environment. The assumed norms provide a framework for the business decisions and the existing norms affect the firms’ performance. The article focuses on the efficiency consequences of the violation of the market norms. It presents the concept of corporate efficiency and its influencing factors. Then the decision makers’ possible answers to the violation of norms are investigated and the efficiency consequences are analyzed.

The impact of bandwidth in structured interviewing and criterion stability in predicting and assessing manager performance across transition and maintenance stages

The current study examined the role of three important components in the use of structured employment interviewing in performance prediction: construct bandwidth, observed communication skill, and the stability/dynamicity of performance criteria over time. A matched sample of 242 hospitality managers was derived from a field data set provided by a large hospitality management organization. Interview data and two years of performance appraisal data were provided. Bandwidth analysis demonstrated only minimal differences in prediction between matched predictor-criterion pairs compared with predictor to overall aggregate ratings (unmatched). The communication skill analysis revealed that this interviewer rated observation significantly predicted a number of the individual performance dimensions as well as overall performance over time. Of the five interview items, the strongest overall predictor of performance was interviewer rated communication skill. The stability/dynamicity analyses demonstrated the performance criteria to be generally stable over the two year period examined, which provides support for the long held notion that performance criteria is stabile over time. However, there were two exceptions. The interview dimension customer service orientation had shifting relationships over time with four of the criteria over the two year period. The performance criteria employee development also demonstrated some instability in its relationships with predictors. Thus, some evidence of dynamicity in performance criteria was revealed. Interestingly, both of the most noteworthy findings in the study involved items that were rated differently than the others in the study. The rated interview item communication skill and the rated performance criteria client satisfaction were ratings that involved a more direct level of observation. Additional analyses also revealed evidence of a general factor of performance. These two themes are more fully covered in the discussion.

Human Capital Decisions and Employee Satisfaction at Selected Hotels in India

Understanding the role of human capital is one of the key considerations in delivering and sustaining competitiveness. Managing employees in the hospitality industry is particularly a challenging task as the industry is considered to be labor intensive. High turnover and increasing employee demands are among the problems that are identified as threats to maintaining a strong competitive position. Successful hotels attempt to retain their best employees in an effort to adapt to changing environments and increased competition. Effective hotel human resource systems can produce positive outcomes, through effective employee retention strategies that focus on work force motivation, attitudes and perception. The positive implementation of these strategies can influence and create employee satisfaction. This study aims to focus on the relationship between the mediating variables of motivation, attitudes, perception and their effect on employee satisfaction. These findings are based upon an extensive survey carried out between April 2009 and June 2009 in the small mountainous state of Uttarakhand, located within the Indian sub-continent. Although the area of study is confined to the Kumaon region of Uttarakhand, the authors contend that the findings and implications can be applied to other remote developing tourist destinations in other regions.

How did varying levels of intensity of the 2005 Pakistan earthquake differentially affect women’s fertility decisions and children’s health outcomes?

This paper uses a difference in difference model to investigate the impact of a large scale and high mortality 2005 earthquake in Pakistan on women’s fertility decisions and children’s health outcomes. Using a nationally representative, cross sectional DHS data from 2006 and geographical data from USGS, this paper investigates how variation in earthquake intensity levels can differentially impact total fertility for women and the likelihood of children suffering from diseases such as diarrhea, Acute Respiratory Infections (ARI) and fever. The post-earthquake results demonstrate a statistically significant increase in total fertility for areas closer to the epicenter of the earthquake, within a 100km radius of the rupture surface and at higher altitudes. Similarly, for children who were in-utero at the time of the earthquake, the probability of having early symptoms of ARI or fever was much smaller in lower earthquake intensity zones compared to the highest intensity zone.

SEQUENTIAL DECISIONS AND PREDICTIONS IN NATURAL LANGUAGE PROCESSING

Natural language processing has achieved great success in a wide range of ap- plications, producing both commercial language services and open-source language tools. However, most methods take a static or batch approach, assuming that the model has all information it needs and makes a one-time prediction. In this disser- tation, we study dynamic problems where the input comes in a sequence instead of all at once, and the output must be produced while the input is arriving. In these problems, predictions are often made based only on partial information. We see this dynamic setting in many real-time, interactive applications. These problems usually involve a trade-off between the amount of input received (cost) and the quality of the output prediction (accuracy). Therefore, the evaluation considers both objectives (e.g., plotting a Pareto curve). Our goal is to develop a formal understanding of sequential prediction and decision-making problems in natural language processing and to propose efficient solutions. Toward this end, we present meta-algorithms that take an existent batch model and produce a dynamic model to handle sequential inputs and outputs. Webuild our framework upon theories of Markov Decision Process (MDP), which allows learning to trade off competing objectives in a principled way. The main machine learning techniques we use are from imitation learning and reinforcement learning, and we advance current techniques to tackle problems arising in our settings. We evaluate our algorithm on a variety of applications, including dependency parsing, machine translation, and question answering. We show that our approach achieves a better cost-accuracy trade-off than the batch approach and heuristic-based decision- making approaches. We first propose a general framework for cost-sensitive prediction, where dif- ferent parts of the input come at different costs. We formulate a decision-making process that selects pieces of the input sequentially, and the selection is adaptive to each instance. Our approach is evaluated on both standard classification tasks and a structured prediction task (dependency parsing). We show that it achieves similar prediction quality to methods that use all input, while inducing a much smaller cost. Next, we extend the framework to problems where the input is revealed incremen- tally in a fixed order. We study two applications: simultaneous machine translation and quiz bowl (incremental text classification). We discuss challenges in this set- ting and show that adding domain knowledge eases the decision-making problem. A central theme throughout the chapters is an MDP formulation of a challenging problem with sequential input/output and trade-off decisions, accompanied by a learning algorithm that solves the MDP.

Agendas de ordenamiento ambiental : Priorización de acciones y dimensionalización de indicadores desde contextos y criterios locales

La propuesta de revisar cuestiones vinculadas al papel de la Universidad en las políticas territoriales, a sus compromisos para una gestión asociada y a sus responsabilidades en la construcción y aplicación de la información en municipios de su área de influencia; ha impulsado la formulación de dos proyectos de investigación: uno 'INVESTIGACION Y DESARROLLO TERRITORIAL (2da etapa). Construcción de agendas de ordenamiento ambiental desde criterios múltiples' y otro 'INDICADORES DE SUSTENTABILIDAD TERRITORIAL. Contenidos de aplicación multicriterio y presupuestos filosóficos de base'

Agendas de ordenamiento ambiental : Priorización de acciones y dimensionalización de indicadores desde contextos y criterios locales

La propuesta de revisar cuestiones vinculadas al papel de la Universidad en las políticas territoriales, a sus compromisos para una gestión asociada y a sus responsabilidades en la construcción y aplicación de la información en municipios de su área de influencia; ha impulsado la formulación de dos proyectos de investigación: uno 'INVESTIGACION Y DESARROLLO TERRITORIAL (2da etapa). Construcción de agendas de ordenamiento ambiental desde criterios múltiples' y otro 'INDICADORES DE SUSTENTABILIDAD TERRITORIAL. Contenidos de aplicación multicriterio y presupuestos filosóficos de base'

Agendas de ordenamiento ambiental : Priorización de acciones y dimensionalización de indicadores desde contextos y criterios locales

La propuesta de revisar cuestiones vinculadas al papel de la Universidad en las políticas territoriales, a sus compromisos para una gestión asociada y a sus responsabilidades en la construcción y aplicación de la información en municipios de su área de influencia; ha impulsado la formulación de dos proyectos de investigación: uno 'INVESTIGACION Y DESARROLLO TERRITORIAL (2da etapa). Construcción de agendas de ordenamiento ambiental desde criterios múltiples' y otro 'INDICADORES DE SUSTENTABILIDAD TERRITORIAL. Contenidos de aplicación multicriterio y presupuestos filosóficos de base'

Decisions with multiple simultaneous goals and uncertain causal effects

A key aspect of decision-making in a disaster response scenario is the capability to evaluate multiple and simultaneously perceived goals. Current competing approaches to build decision-making agents are either mental-state based as BDI, or founded on decision-theoretic models as MDP. The BDI chooses heuristically among several goals and the MDP searches for a policy to achieve a specific goal. In this paper we develop a preferences model to decide among multiple simultaneous goals. We propose a pattern, which follows a decision-theoretic approach, to evaluate the expected causal effects of the observable and non-observable aspects that inform each decision. We focus on yes-or-no (i.e., pursue or ignore a goal) decisions and illustrate the proposal using the RoboCupRescue simulation environment.

Decoding decisions in healthy subjects and auditory discrimination in comatose patients through single-trial topographic EEG analyses

Neuroimaging studies analyzing neurophysiological signals are typically based on comparing averages of peri-stimulus epochs across experimental conditions. This approach can however be problematic in the case of high-level cognitive tasks, where response variability across trials is expected to be high and in cases where subjects cannot be considered part of a group. The main goal of this thesis has been to address this issue by developing a novel approach for analyzing electroencephalography (EEG) responses at the single-trial level. This approach takes advantage of the spatial distribution of the electric field on the scalp (topography) and exploits repetitions across trials for quantifying the degree of discrimination between experimental conditions through a classification scheme. In the first part of this thesis, I developed and validated this new method (Tzovara et al., 2012a,b). Its general applicability was demonstrated with three separate datasets, two in the visual modality and one in the auditory. This development allowed then to target two new lines of research, one in basic and one in clinical neuroscience, which represent the second and third part of this thesis respectively. For the second part of this thesis (Tzovara et al., 2012c), I employed the developed method for assessing the timing of exploratory decision-making. Using single-trial topographic EEG activity during presentation of a choice's payoff, I could predict the subjects' subsequent decisions. This prediction was due to a topographic difference which appeared on average at ~516ms after the presentation of payoff and was subject-specific. These results exploit for the first time the temporal correlates of individual subjects' decisions and additionally show that the underlying neural generators start differentiating their responses already ~880ms before the button press. Finally, in the third part of this project, I focused on a clinical study with the goal of assessing the degree of intact neural functions in comatose patients. Auditory EEG responses were assessed through a classical mismatch negativity paradigm, during the very early phase of coma, which is currently under-investigated. By taking advantage of the decoding method developed in the first part of the thesis, I could quantify the degree of auditory discrimination at the single patient level (Tzovara et al., in press). Our results showed for the first time that even patients who do not survive the coma can discriminate sounds at the neural level, during the first hours after coma onset. Importantly, an improvement in auditory discrimination during the first 48hours of coma was predictive of awakening and survival, with 100% positive predictive value. - L'analyse des signaux électrophysiologiques en neuroimagerie se base typiquement sur la comparaison des réponses neurophysiologiques à différentes conditions expérimentales qui sont moyennées après plusieurs répétitions d'une tâche. Pourtant, cette approche peut être problématique dans le cas des fonctions cognitives de haut niveau, où la variabilité des réponses entre les essais peut être très élevéeou dans le cas où des sujets individuels ne peuvent pas être considérés comme partie d'un groupe. Le but principal de cette thèse est d'investiguer cette problématique en développant une nouvelle approche pour l'analyse des réponses d'électroencephalographie (EEG) au niveau de chaque essai. Cette approche se base sur la modélisation de la distribution du champ électrique sur le crâne (topographie) et profite des répétitions parmi les essais afin de quantifier, à l'aide d'un schéma de classification, le degré de discrimination entre des conditions expérimentales. Dans la première partie de cette thèse, j'ai développé et validé cette nouvelle méthode (Tzovara et al., 2012a,b). Son applicabilité générale a été démontrée avec trois ensembles de données, deux dans le domaine visuel et un dans l'auditif. Ce développement a permis de cibler deux nouvelles lignes de recherche, la première dans le domaine des neurosciences cognitives et l'autre dans le domaine des neurosciences cliniques, représentant respectivement la deuxième et troisième partie de ce projet. En particulier, pour la partie cognitive, j'ai appliqué cette méthode pour évaluer l'information temporelle de la prise des décisions (Tzovara et al., 2012c). En se basant sur l'activité topographique de l'EEG au niveau de chaque essai pendant la présentation de la récompense liée à un choix, on a pu prédire les décisions suivantes des sujets (en termes d'exploration/exploitation). Cette prédiction s'appuie sur une différence topographique qui apparaît en moyenne ~516ms après la présentation de la récompense. Ces résultats exploitent pour la première fois, les corrélés temporels des décisions au niveau de chaque sujet séparément et montrent que les générateurs neuronaux de ces décisions commencent à différentier leurs réponses déjà depuis ~880ms avant que les sujets appuient sur le bouton. Finalement, pour la dernière partie de ce projet, je me suis focalisée sur une étude Clinique afin d'évaluer le degré des fonctions neuronales intactes chez les patients comateux. Des réponses EEG auditives ont été examinées avec un paradigme classique de mismatch negativity, pendant la phase précoce du coma qui est actuellement sous-investiguée. En utilisant la méthode de décodage développée dans la première partie de la thèse, j'ai pu quantifier le degré de discrimination auditive au niveau de chaque patient (Tzovara et al., in press). Nos résultats montrent pour la première fois que même des patients comateux qui ne vont pas survivre peuvent discriminer des sons au niveau neuronal, lors de la phase aigue du coma. De plus, une amélioration dans la discrimination auditive pendant les premières 48heures du coma a été observée seulement chez des patients qui se sont réveillés par la suite (100% de valeur prédictive pour un réveil).

The evolution, maintenance and adaptive function of genetic colour polymorphism in birds.

The hypothesis that ornaments can honestly signal quality only if their expression is condition-dependent has dominated the study of the evolution and function of colour traits. Much less interest has been devoted to the adaptive function of colour traits for which the expression is not, or is to a low extent, sensitive to body condition and the environment in which individuals live. The aim of the present paper is to review the current theoretical and empirical knowledge of the evolution, maintenance and adaptive function of colour plumage traits for which the expression is mainly under genetic control. The finding that in many bird species the inheritance of colour morphs follows the laws of Mendel indicates that genetic colour polymorphism is frequent. Polymorphism may have evolved or be maintained because each colour morph facilitates the exploitation of alternative ecological niches as suggested by the observation that individuals are not randomly distributed among habitats with respect to coloration. Consistent with the hypothesis that different colour morphs are linked to alternative strategies is the finding that in a majority of species polymorphism is associated with reproductive parameters, and behavioural, life-history and physiological traits. Experimental studies showed that such covariations can have a genetic basis. These observations suggest that colour polymorphism has an adaptive function. Aviary and field experiments demonstrated that colour polymorphism is used as a criterion in mate-choice decisions and dominance interactions confirming the claim that conspecifics assess each other's colour morphs. The factors favouring the evolution and maintenance of genetic variation in coloration are reviewed, but empirical data are virtually lacking to assess their importance. Although current theory predicts that only condition-dependent traits can signal quality, the present review shows that genetically inherited morphs can reveal the same qualities. The study of genetic colour polymorphism will provide important and original insights on the adaptive function of conspicuous traits.

Right ventromedial and dorsolateral prefrontal cortices mediate adaptive decisions under ambiguity by integrating choice utility and outcome evaluation.

The Iowa gambling task (IGT) is one of the most influential behavioral paradigms in reward-related decision making and has been, most notably, associated with ventromedial prefrontal cortex function. However, performance in the IGT relies on a complex set of cognitive subprocesses, in particular integrating information about the outcome of choices into a continuously updated decision strategy under ambiguous conditions. The complexity of the task has made it difficult for neuroimaging studies to disentangle the underlying neurocognitive processes. In this study, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging in combination with a novel adaptation of the task, which allowed us to examine separately activation associated with the moment of decision or the evaluation of decision outcomes. Importantly, using whole-brain regression analyses with individual performance, in combination with the choice/outcome history of individual subjects, we aimed to identify the neural overlap between areas that are involved in the evaluation of outcomes and in the progressive discrimination of the relative value of available choice options, thus mapping the two fundamental cognitive processes that lead to adaptive decision making. We show that activation in right ventromedial and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex was predictive of adaptive performance, in both discriminating disadvantageous from advantageous decisions and confirming negative decision outcomes. We propose that these two prefrontal areas mediate shifting away from disadvantageous choices through their sensitivity to accumulating negative outcomes. These findings provide functional evidence of the underlying processes by which these prefrontal subregions drive adaptive choice in the task, namely through contingency-sensitive outcome evaluation.