Modeling the fiscal impacts caused by climate change

Aim of the paper: The purpose is to gather the practices and to model the impacts of climate change on fiscal spending and revenues, responsibilities and opportunities, balance and debt related to climate change (CC). Methodology of the paper: The methodology will distinguish fiscal cost of mitigation and adaptation, besides direct and indirect costs. It will also introduce cost benefit analyses to evaluate the propensity of policy makers for action or passivity. Several scenarios will be drafted to see the different outcomes. The scenarios shall contain the possible losses in the natural and artificial environment and resources. Impacts on public budget are based on damage of income opportunities and capital/wealth/natural assets. There will be a list of actions when the fiscal correction of market failures will be necessary. Findings: There will be a summary and synthesis of estimation models on CC impacts on public finances, and morals of existing/existed budgeting practices on mitigation. The model will be based on damages (and maybe benefits) from CC, adjusted with probabilities of scenarios and policy making propensity for action. Findings will cover the way of funding of fiscal costs. Practical use, value added: From the synthesis of model, the fiscal cost of mitigation and adaptation can be estimated for any developed, emerging and developing countries. The paper will try to reply, also, for the challenge how to harmonize fiscal and developmental sustainability.

Stochastic Modeling of Reversible Biochemical Reaction-Diffusion Systems and High-Resolution Shock-Capturing Methods for Fluid Interfaces

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Finite Element Modeling of Spiral Frequency Steerable Acoustic Transducers (FSATs) for guided waves based Structural Health Monitoring of plate-like structures

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) is an emerging area of research associated to improvement of maintainability and the safety of aerospace, civil and mechanical infrastructures by means of monitoring and damage detection. Guided wave structural testing method is an approach for health monitoring of plate-like structures using smart material piezoelectric transducers. Among many kinds of transducers, the ones that have beam steering feature can perform more accurate surface interrogation. A frequency steerable acoustic transducer (FSATs) is capable of beam steering by varying the input frequency and consequently can detect and localize damage in structures. Guided wave inspection is typically performed through phased arrays which feature a large number of piezoelectric transducers, complexity and limitations. To overcome the weight penalty, the complex circuity and maintenance concern associated with wiring a large number of transducers, new FSATs are proposed that present inherent directional capabilities when generating and sensing elastic waves. The first generation of Spiral FSAT has two main limitations. First, waves are excited or sensed in one direction and in the opposite one (180 ̊ ambiguity) and second, just a relatively rude approximation of the desired directivity has been attained. Second generation of Spiral FSAT is proposed to overcome the first generation limitations. The importance of simulation tools becomes higher when a new idea is proposed and starts to be developed. The shaped transducer concept, especially the second generation of spiral FSAT is a novel idea in guided waves based of Structural Health Monitoring systems, hence finding a simulation tool is a necessity to develop various design aspects of this innovative transducer. In this work, the numerical simulation of the 1st and 2nd generations of Spiral FSAT has been conducted to prove the directional capability of excited guided waves through a plate-like structure.

Towards a performance based design of shear walls based on damage criteria = Vers un dimensionnement performanciel des murs de refend basé sur des critères d'endommagement

Le dimensionnement basé sur la performance (DBP), dans une approche déterministe, caractérise les objectifs de performance par rapport aux niveaux de performance souhaités. Les objectifs de performance sont alors associés à l'état d'endommagement et au niveau de risque sismique établis. Malgré cette approche rationnelle, son application est encore difficile. De ce fait, des outils fiables pour la capture de l'évolution, de la distribution et de la quantification de l'endommagement sont nécessaires. De plus, tous les phénomènes liés à la non-linéarité (matériaux et déformations) doivent également être pris en considération. Ainsi, cette recherche montre comment la mécanique de l'endommagement pourrait contribuer à résoudre cette problématique avec une adaptation de la théorie du champ de compression modifiée et d'autres théories complémentaires. La formulation proposée adaptée pour des charges monotones, cycliques et de type pushover permet de considérer les effets non linéaires liés au cisaillement couplé avec les mécanismes de flexion et de charge axiale. Cette formulation est spécialement appliquée à l'analyse non linéaire des éléments structuraux en béton soumis aux effets de cisaillement non égligeables. Cette nouvelle approche mise en œuvre dans EfiCoS (programme d'éléments finis basé sur la mécanique de l'endommagement), y compris les critères de modélisation, sont également présentés ici. Des calibrations de cette nouvelle approche en comparant les prédictions avec des données expérimentales ont été réalisées pour les murs de refend en béton armé ainsi que pour des poutres et des piliers de pont où les effets de cisaillement doivent être pris en considération. Cette nouvelle version améliorée du logiciel EFiCoS a démontrée être capable d'évaluer avec précision les paramètres associés à la performance globale tels que les déplacements, la résistance du système, les effets liés à la réponse cyclique et la quantification, l'évolution et la distribution de l'endommagement. Des résultats remarquables ont également été obtenus en référence à la détection appropriée des états limites d'ingénierie tels que la fissuration, les déformations unitaires, l'éclatement de l'enrobage, l'écrasement du noyau, la plastification locale des barres d'armature et la dégradation du système, entre autres. Comme un outil pratique d'application du DBP, des relations entre les indices d'endommagement prédits et les niveaux de performance ont été obtenus et exprimés sous forme de graphiques et de tableaux. Ces graphiques ont été développés en fonction du déplacement relatif et de la ductilité de déplacement. Un tableau particulier a été développé pour relier les états limites d'ingénierie, l'endommagement, le déplacement relatif et les niveaux de performance traditionnels. Les résultats ont démontré une excellente correspondance avec les données expérimentales, faisant de la formulation proposée et de la nouvelle version d'EfiCoS des outils puissants pour l'application de la méthodologie du DBP, dans une approche déterministe.

CHARACTERIZATION OF RADIATION DAMAGE TO A NOVEL PHOTONIC CRYSTAL SENSOR

New methods of nuclear fuel and cladding characterization must be developed and implemented to enhance the safety and reliability of nuclear power plants. One class of such advanced methods is aimed at the characterization of fuel performance by performing minimally intrusive in-core, real time measurements on nuclear fuel on the nanometer scale. Nuclear power plants depend on instrumentation and control systems for monitoring, control and protection. Traditionally, methods for fuel characterization under irradiation are performed using a “cook and look” method. These methods are very expensive and labor-intensive since they require removal, inspection and return of irradiated samples for each measurement. Such fuel cladding inspection methods investigate oxide layer thickness, wear, dimensional changes, ovality, nuclear fuel growth and nuclear fuel defect identification. These methods are also not suitable for all commercial nuclear power applications as they are not always available to the operator when needed. Additionally, such techniques often provide limited data and may exacerbate the phenomena being investigated. This thesis investigates a novel, nanostructured sensor based on a photonic crystal design that is implemented in a nuclear reactor environment. The aim of this work is to produce an in-situ radiation-tolerant sensor capable of measuring the deformation of a nuclear material during nuclear reactor operations. The sensor was fabricated on the surface of nuclear reactor materials (specifically, steel and zirconium based alloys). Charged-particle and mixed-field irradiations were both performed on a newly-developed “pelletron” beamline at Idaho State University's Research and Innovation in Science and Engineering (RISE) complex and at the University of Maryland's 250 kW Training Reactor (MUTR). The sensors were irradiated to 6 different fluences (ranging from 1 to 100 dpa), followed by intensive characterization using focused ion beam (FIB), transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) to investigate the physical deformation and microstructural changes between different fluence levels, to provide high-resolution information regarding the material performance. Computer modeling (SRIM/TRIM) was employed to simulate damage to the sensor as well as to provide significant information concerning the penetration depth of the ions into the material.

Three dimensional modeling of contaminants transportation (oil spill) in Caspian Sea

Nowadays, Caspian Sea is in focus of more attentions than past because of its individualistic as the biggest lake in the world and the existing of very large oil and gas resources within it. Very large scale of oil pollution caused by development of oil exploration and excavation activities not only make problem for coastal facilities but also make severe damage on environment. In the first stage of this research, the location and quality of oil resources in offshore and onshore have been determined and then affected depletion factors on oil spill such as evaporation, emulsification, dissolution, sedimentation and so on have been studied. In second stage, sea hydrodynamics model is offered and tested by determination of governing hydrodynamic equations on sea currents and on pollution transportation in sea surface and by finding out main parameters in these equations such as Coriolis, bottom friction, wind and etc. this model has been calculated by using cell vertex finite volume method in an unstructured mesh domain. According to checked model; sea currents of Caspian Sea in different seasons of the year have been determined and in final stage different scenarios of oil spill movement in Caspian sea on various conditions have been investigated by modeling of three dimensional oil spill movement on surface (affected by sea currents) and on depth (affected by buoyancy, drag and gravity forces) by applying main above mentioned depletion factors.

Modeling Flood Stage-Duration-Frequency: A Risk Assessment of Critical Infrastructure in the Tidal Potomac

The service of a critical infrastructure, such as a municipal wastewater treatment plant (MWWTP), is taken for granted until a flood or another low frequency, high consequence crisis brings its fragility to attention. The unique aspects of the MWWTP call for a method to quantify the flood stage-duration-frequency relationship. By developing a bivariate joint distribution model of flood stage and duration, this study adds a second dimension, time, into flood risk studies. A new parameter, inter-event time, is developed to further illustrate the effect of event separation on the frequency assessment. The method is tested on riverine, estuary and tidal sites in the Mid-Atlantic region. Equipment damage functions are characterized by linear and step damage models. The Expected Annual Damage (EAD) of the underground equipment is further estimated by the parametric joint distribution model, which is a function of both flood stage and duration, demonstrating the application of the bivariate model in risk assessment. Flood likelihood may alter due to climate change. A sensitivity analysis method is developed to assess future flood risk by estimating flood frequency under conditions of higher sea level and stream flow response to increased precipitation intensity. Scenarios based on steady and unsteady flow analysis are generated for current climate, future climate within this century, and future climate beyond this century, consistent with the WWTP planning horizons. The spatial extent of flood risk is visualized by inundation mapping and GIS-Assisted Risk Register (GARR). This research will help the stakeholders of the critical infrastructure be aware of the flood risk, vulnerability, and the inherent uncertainty.

Modeling Alzheimer disease with iPSCs and mouse model for the identification of risk factors, new targets, and potential therapeutical strategies

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common neurodegenerative disease in elderly. Donepezil is the first-line drug used for AD. In section one, the experimental activity was oriented to evaluate and characterize molecular and cellular mechanisms that contribute to neurodegeneration induced by the Aβ1-42 oligomers (Aβ1-42O) and potential neuroprotective effects of the hybrids feruloyl-donepezil compound called PQM130. The effects of PQM130 were compared to donepezil in a murine AD model, obtained by intracerebroventricular (i.c.v.) injection of Aβ1-42O. The intraperitoneal administration of PQM130 (0.5-1 mg/kg) after i.c.v. Aβ1-42O injection improved learning and memory, protecting mice against spatial cognition decline. Moreover, it reduced oxidative stress, neuroinflammation and neuronal apoptosis, induced cell survival and protein synthesis in mice hippocampus. PQM130 modulated different pathways than donepezil, and it is more effective in counteracting Aβ1-42O damage. The section two of the experimental activity was focused on studying a loss of function variants of ABCA7. GWA studies identified mutations in the ABCA7 gene as a risk factor for AD. The mechanism through which ABCA7 contributes to AD is not clear. ABCA7 regulates lipid metabolism and critically controls phagocytic function. To investigate ABCA7 functions, CRISPR/Cas9 technology was used to engineer human iPSCs and to carry the genetic variant Y622*, which results in a premature stop codon, causing ABCA7 loss-of-function. From iPSCs, astrocytes were generated. This study revealed the effects of ABCA7 loss in astrocytes. ABCA7 Y622* mutation induced dysfunctional endocytic trafficking, impairing Aβ clearance, lipid dysregulation and cell homeostasis disruption, alterations that could contribute to AD. Though further studies are needed to confirm the PQM130 neuroprotective role and ABCA7 function in AD, the provided results showed a better understanding of AD pathophysiology, a new therapeutic approach to treat AD, and illustrated an innovative methodology for studying the disease.

Lifetime Modeling of SiC Power Modules in Automotive Traction Inverters

This thesis presents a model-based software implementation for the estimation of the damage of a power module inside and automotive traction inverter with few hardware test setup performed to support the simulation with real-life data.

Diet Carotenoid Lutein Modulates The Expression Of Genes Related To Oxygen Transporters And Decreases Dna Damage And Oxidative Stress In Mice.

Lutein (LT) is a carotenoid obtained by diet and despite its antioxidant activity had been biochemically reported, few studies are available concerning its influence on the expression of antioxidant genes. The expression of 84 genes implicated in antioxidant defense was quantified using quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction array. DNA damage was measured by comet assay and glutathione (GSH) and thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) were quantified as biochemical parameters of oxidative stress in mouse kidney and liver. cDDP treatment reduced concentration of GSH and increased TBARS, parameters that were ameliorated in treatment associated with LT. cDDP altered the expression of 32 genes, increasing the expression of GPx2, APC, Nqo1 and CCs. LT changed the expression of 37 genes with an induction of 13 mainly oxygen transporters. In treatments associating cDDP and LT, 30 genes had their expression changed with a increase of the same genes of the cDDP treatment alone. These results suggest that LT might act scavenging reactive species and also inducing the expression of genes related to a better antioxidant response, highlighting the improvement of oxygen transport. This improved redox state of the cell through LT treatment could be related to the antigenotoxic and antioxidant effects observed.

Uv-vis Spectra As An Alternative To The Lowry Method For Quantify Hair Damage Induced By Surfactants.

It is well known that long term use of shampoo causes damage to human hair. Although the Lowry method has been widely used to quantify hair damage, it is unsuitable to determine this in the presence of some surfactants and there is no other method proposed in literature. In this work, a different method is used to investigate and compare the hair damage induced by four types of surfactants (including three commercial-grade surfactants) and water. Hair samples were immersed in aqueous solution of surfactants under conditions that resemble a shower (38 °C, constant shaking). These solutions become colored with time of contact with hair and its UV-vis spectra were recorded. For comparison, the amount of extracted proteins from hair by sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) and by water were estimated by the Lowry method. Additionally, non-pigmented vs. pigmented hair and also sepia melanin were used to understand the washing solution color and their spectra. The results presented herein show that hair degradation is mostly caused by the extraction of proteins, cuticle fragments and melanin granules from hair fiber. It was found that the intensity of solution color varies with the charge density of the surfactants. Furthermore, the intensity of solution color can be correlated to the amount of proteins quantified by the Lowry method as well as to the degree of hair damage. UV-vis spectrum of hair washing solutions is a simple and straightforward method to quantify and compare hair damages induced by different commercial surfactants.

Deregulation Of Adipokines Related To Target Organ Damage On Resistant Hypertension.

Resistant hypertension (RHTN) includes patients with controlled blood pressure (BP) (CRHTN) and uncontrolled BP (UCRHTN). In fact, RHTN patients are more likely to have target organ damage (TOD), and resistin, leptin and adiponectin may affect BP control in these subjects. We assessed the relationship between adipokines levels and arterial stiffness, left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) and microalbuminuria (MA). This cross-sectional study included CRHTN (n=51) and UCRHTN (n=38) patients for evaluating body mass index, ambulatory blood pressure monitoring, plasma adiponectin, leptin and resistin concentrations, pulse wave velocity (PWV), MA and echocardiography. Leptin and resistin levels were higher in UCRHTN, whereas adiponectin levels were lower in this same subgroup. Similarly, arterial stiffness, LVH and MA were higher in UCRHTN subgroup. Adiponectin levels negatively correlated with PWV (r=-0.42, P<0.01), and MA (r=-0.48, P<0.01) only in UCRHTN. Leptin was positively correlated with PWV (r=0.37, P=0.02) in UCRHTN subgroup, whereas resistin was not correlated with TOD in both subgroups. Adiponectin is associated with arterial stiffness and renal injury in UCRHTN patients, whereas leptin is associated with arterial stiffness in the same subgroup. Taken together, our results showed that those adipokines may contribute to vascular and renal damage in UCRHTN patients.

Graded Meshes In Bio-thermal Problems With Transmission-line Modeling Method.

In this study, the transmission-line modeling (TLM) applied to bio-thermal problems was improved by incorporating several novel computational techniques, which include application of graded meshes which resulted in 9 times faster in computational time and uses only a fraction (16%) of the computational resources used by regular meshes in analyzing heat flow through heterogeneous media. Graded meshes, unlike regular meshes, allow heat sources to be modeled in all segments of the mesh. A new boundary condition that considers thermal properties and thus resulting in a more realistic modeling of complex problems is introduced. Also, a new way of calculating an error parameter is introduced. The calculated temperatures between nodes were compared against the results obtained from the literature and agreed within less than 1% difference. It is reasonable, therefore, to conclude that the improved TLM model described herein has great potential in heat transfer of biological systems.

Variability Modeling Of Rainfall, Deforestation, And Incidence Of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis In Orán, Argentina, 1985-2007.

American tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL) is a disease transmitted to humans by the female sandflies of the genus Lutzomyia. Several factors are involved in the disease transmission cycle. In this work only rainfall and deforestation were considered to assess the variability in the incidence of ATL. In order to reach this goal, monthly recorded data of the incidence of ATL in Orán, Salta, Argentina, were used, in the period 1985-2007. The square root of the relative incidence of ATL and the corresponding variance were formulated as time series, and these data were smoothed by moving averages of 12 and 24 months, respectively. The same procedure was applied to the rainfall data. Typical months, which are April, August, and December, were found and allowed us to describe the dynamical behavior of ATL outbreaks. These results were tested at 95% confidence level. We concluded that the variability of rainfall would not be enough to justify the epidemic outbreaks of ATL in the period 1997-2000, but it consistently explains the situation observed in the years 2002 and 2004. Deforestation activities occurred in this region could explain epidemic peaks observed in both years and also during the entire time of observation except in 2005-2007.

Characterization Of Cumulative Joint Damage Patterns In Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Clinical, Serological, And Gene Polymorphism Perspective.

To characterize cumulative joint damage (CJD) patterns in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and determine their associations with demographic/clinical features and HLA-DRB1 gene polymorphism. Hand and foot radiographs were obtained from 404 patients with RA. CJD patterns were determined by 3 derivations from Sharp/van der Heijde scores, obtained by the mathematical division of scores for hands/feet (Sharp-h/f score), fingers/wrists (Sharp-f/w score), and erosion/space narrowing (Sharp-e/sn score), respectively. DNA and serum were obtained for determination of HLA-DRB1 polymorphism, rheumatoid factor (RF), and anticitrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA). Patients with wrist-dominant CJD pattern were more likely to have severe RA than those with finger-dominant pattern (68.4% vs 46.0%; p = 0.036) as were those with foot-dominant vs hand-dominant CJD pattern (76.5% vs 56.4%; p = 0.044). HLA-DRB1 shared epitope (SE) alleles were associated with erosion-dominant CJD pattern (p = 0.021). Patients with erosion-dominant CJD pattern had higher levels of RF and ACPA than those with space-narrowing-dominant CJD pattern (median RF 71.35 U/ml vs 22.05 U/ml, respectively; p = 0.003; median ACPA 187.9 U/ml vs 143.2 U/ml, respectively; p < 0.001). The majority of triple-positive patients (SE+, RF+, ACPA+) had erosion-dominant CJD pattern (62.3%) while the majority of triple-negative patients (SE-, FR-, ACPA-) had space narrowing-dominant CJD pattern (75%; p = 0.017). ACPA was associated with HLA-DRB1 SE alleles (p < 0.05). Patients with foot-dominant CJD pattern were taller than those with hand-dominant CJD pattern (p = 0.002); those with erosion-dominant CJD pattern had higher weight and body mass index than those with space narrowing-dominant CJD pattern (p = 0.014, p = 0.001). CJD patterns were associated with disease severity, HLA-DRB1 SE status, presence and titer of ACPA and RF, and morphometric features.