Evaluation of Xylella fastidiosa genetic diversity by fAFPL markers

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Entwicklung und Anwendung molekularbiologischer Methoden zur Art- und Stamm-Identifizierung pro- und eukaryotischer Organismen

Das Wachstum von Milchsäurebakterien-Arten der Gattungen Lactobacillus, Pediococcus und Leuconostoc während der Weinfermentation kann durch die Bildung verschiedener Stoffwechselprodukte zu Weinfehlern führen. Um rechtzeitig Gegenmaßnahmen ergreifen zu können und einem Weinverderb vorzubeugen, bedarf es geeigneter Identifizierungsmethoden. Klassische mikrobiologische Methoden reichen oft nicht aus, um Mikroorganismen auf Art- und Stammniveau gezielt zu identifizieren. Wegen ihrer schnellen Durchführbarkeit und Zuverlässigkeit sind molekularbiologische Identifizierungsmethoden zur Kontrolle der mikrobiellen Flora während der Lebensmittelfermentierung in der heutigen Zeit unabdingbar. In der vorliegenden Forschungsarbeit wurden die 23S rRNA-Gensequenzen von neun Pediococcus-Typstämmen sequenziert, analysiert und phylogenetische Analysen durchgeführt. Zur Art-Identifizierung der Pediokokken wurden PCR-Primer generiert und ein Multiplex PCR System entwickelt, mit dem alle typischen Arten simultan in einer Reaktion nachgewiesen werden konnten. Die Ergebnisse der Multiplex PCR-Identifizierung von 62 Pediococcus-Stämmen aus Kulturensammlungen und 47 neu isolierten Stämmen aus Wein zeigten, dass einige Stämme unter falschen Artnamen hinterlegt waren, und dass P. parvulus im Weinanbaugebiet Rheinhessen weit verbreitet war. Die Fähigkeit der Pediococcus-Stämme zur Exopolysaccharid-Synthese wurde durch den Nachweis zweier Gene überprüft. Auf Basis der 23S rDNA-Sequenzen wurden rRNA-Sekundärstrukturen mit der neu entwickelten Software Structure Star generiert, die zum Auffinden von Zielbereichen für fluoreszenzmarkierte DNA-Sonden geeignet waren. Die Sequenzunterschiede zwischen den Pediococcus-Arten reichten aus, um zwei Gruppen durch Fluoreszenz in situ Hybridisierung differenzieren zu können. Die Verwendung unmarkierter Helfer-sonden verbesserte die Zugänglichkeit der Sonden an die rRNA, wodurch das Fluoreszenz-Signal verstärkt wurde. Um Milchsäurebakterien durch Denaturierende Gradienten Gel Elektrophorese differenzieren zu können, wurden Primer entwickelt, mit denen ein hochvariabler 23S rDNA-Bereich amplifiziert werden konnte. Die Nested Specifically Amplified Polymorphic DNA (nSAPD)-PCR wurde in der vorliegenden Arbeit zur Art- und Stamm-Differenzierung pro- und eukaryotischer Organismen angewandt. Es wurden vor allem weinrelevante Milchsäurebakterien der Gattungen Oenococcus, Lactobacillus, Pediococcus und Leuconostoc und Hefen der Gattungen Dekkera / Brettanomyces und Saccharomyces untersucht. Die Cluster-Analyse der Pediococcus-Typstämme führte zu einer unterschiedlichen Baum-Topologie im Vergleich zum phylogenetischen 23S rDNA-Stammbaum. Die Verwandtschaftsverhältnisse der untersuchten O. oeni-Stämme aus Starterkulturen konnten in Bezug auf eine frühere Cluster-Analyse reproduziert werden. Die Untersuchung von 40 B. bruxellensis-Stämmen aus rheinhessischen Weinproben zeigte eine Gruppierung der Stämme gemäß dem Ort der Probennahme. Beim Vergleich der Verwandtschaftsverhältnisse von Stämmen der Arten P. parvulus und B. bruxellensis, die aus denselben Weinproben isoliert wurden, konnte eine hohe Übereinstimmung der beiden Baum-Topologien beobachtet werden. Anhand der SAPD-PCR Untersuchung von Sekthefen aus Starterkulturen konnten alle Stämme der Art S. cerevisiae zugeordnet werden. Die nSAPD-PCR war darüber hinaus geeignet, um höhere Eukaryoten wie Weinreben zu differenzieren und es konnten die Verwandtschaftsverhältnisse von Mäusen und menschlichen Individuen durch Cluster-Analysen nachvollzogen werden. Mit Hilfe der Sequence Characterized Amplified Region (SCAR)-Technik wurden (n)SAPD-Marker in SCAR-Marker konvertiert. Die neu generierten SCAR-Primer konnten zur simultanen Art-Identifizierung von sieben weinschädlichen Milchsäurebakterien in einer Multiplex PCR erfolgreich eingesetzt werden. Die in dieser Arbeit entwickelten molekularbiologischen Identifizierungsmethoden können zum Beispiel in der mikrobiologischen Qualitätskontrolle Anwendung finden.

Identifizierung, Quantifizierung und Hemmung von ausgewählten Hefen im Wein

Hefen stellen einen großen und wichtigen Teil der Mikrobiota während der Weinbereitung dar, da ohne ihre alkoholische Fermentation die Umwandlung von Most und Wein nicht möglich wäre. Ferner ist es ihre Vielzahl an Stoffwechselprodukten, die dem Aroma des fertigen Weines eine zusätzliche Komplexität verleihen. Auf der anderen Seite steht durch den Metabolismus verschiedenster so genannter Wildhefen die Gefahr von Qualitätsabstufungen der Weine, was allgemein als „Weinfehler“ betrachtet wird. Ziel dieser Arbeit war zum einen die taxonomische Einordnung von Saccharomyces-Spezies, sowie die Quantifizierung und Hemmung von ausgewählten Wildhefen während der Weinbereitung.rnEin Teil dieser Arbeit umfasste die Identifizierung der nahverwandten Mitglieder der Saccharomyces sensu stricto-Gruppe. Durch den Einsatz des DNA-Fingerpinting-Systems SAPD-PCR konnten alle die Gruppe umfassenden Spezies anhand spezifischer Bandenmuster nachgewiesen werden, wodurch eine Einordnung dieser schwer zu differenzierenden Arten möglich war. Die Differenzierung zwischen den einzelnen Spezies war in jedem Fall deutlicher als dies die Sequenzierung der 5.8S rDNA und ihre flankierenden ITS-Regionen vermochte. Die SAPD-PCR zeichnete sich zudem durch eine geringe Muster-Varianz bei verschiedenen Stämmen einer Art aus und konnte zuverlässig unbekannte Stämme bestimmen und bereits hinterlegte Stämme neu klassifizieren. Zudem konnte mit Hilfe dieses Systems Hybride aus Saccharomyces cerevisiae und S. bayanus bzw. S. cerevisiae und S. kudriavzevii detektiert werden, wenn diese Hybride aus relativ gleichen genomischen Anteilen der Eltern bestanden. rnZusätzlich wurde ein quantitatives PCR-System entwickelt, um die Gattungen Saccharomyces, Hanseniaspora und Brettanomyces in Most und Wein detektieren und quantifizieren zu können. Die hierfür entwickelten Primer zeigten sich spezifisch für die untersuchten Arten. Durch die serielle Verdünnung definierter DNA-Mengen konnte für alle drei Systeme eine Kalibrierungskurve erstellt werden, mit Hilfe derer die tatsächlichen Quantifizierungen durchgeführt wurden. Die qPCR-Analyse lieferte ähnliche Zellzahlen wie Lebendzellzahl-Bestimmungen und wurde nicht von anderen Spezies und von Traubensaft gestört. Die maximal detektierbare Zellzahl betrug 2 x 107 Zellen/ml, während die minimale Detektionsgrenze je nach Art zwischen 1 x 102 Zellen/ml und 1 x 103 Zellen/ml lag. Allerdings konnte eine effektive DNA-Isolierung dieser geringen Zellzahlen nur erreicht werden, wenn die Zellzahl durch artfremde Hefen künstlich erhöht wurde. Die Analyse einer Most-Vergärung mit den drei Spezies zeigte schlussendlich, dass die quantitative PCR sicher und schnell Veränderungen und Sukzessionen detektiert und so ein geeignetes Mittel darstellt, um Populationsdynamiken während der Weinherstellung zu beobachten. rnDer letzte Teil dieser Arbeit befasste sich mit der Inhibierung von Schadhefen durch zellwand-hydrolysierende Enzyme. Es konnte hierbei eine endoglykosidisch wirkende β-1,3-Glucanase aus dem Bakterium Delftia tsuruhatensis isoliert werden. Diese besaß eine ungefähre Masse von 28 kDa, einen isolektrischen Punkt von ca. 4,3 und wirkte mit einer spezifischen Aktivität von 10 U/mg Protein gegen das Glucan Laminarin. Zudem zeigte das Enzym ein Temperaturoptimum von 50 °C und ein pH-Optimum bei pH 4,0. Weinparameter wie erhöhte Konzentrationen an Ethanol, Phenolen und Sulfit beeinflussten die Wirkung des Enzyms nicht oder nur wenig. Neben der allgemeinen Wirkung gegen β-1,3-Glucane konnte hier auch gezeigt werden, dass ebenso gut die β-1,3-Glucane in der Zellwand verschiedener Hefen hydrolysiert wurden. Fluoreszenz- und rasterelektronen-mikroskopische Aufnahmen von Hefezellen nach Inkubation mit der β-1,3-Glucanase zeigten zusätzlich die Zerstörung der Zelloberfläche der Hefen. Die lytische Wirkung des Enzyms wurde an verschiedenen weintypischen Hefen getestet. Hierbei zeigten sich stammspezifische Unterschiede in der Sensitivität gegenüber dem Enzym. Außerdem konnte festgestellt werden, dass sowohl Wachstumsphase als auch Medium der Hefen Einfluss auf deren Zellwand hat und somit auch auf die Wirkung des Enzyms.rn

Extensive clonal spread and extreme longevity in saw palmetto, a foundation clonal plant

The lack of effective tools have hampered our ability to assess the size, growth and ages of clonal plants. With Serenoa repens (saw palmetto) as a model, we introduce a novel analytical framework that integrates DNA fingerprinting and mathematical modelling to simulate growth and estimate ages of clonal plants. We also demonstrate the application of such life-history information of clonal plants to provide insight into management plans. Serenoa is an ecologically important foundation species in many Southeastern United States ecosystems; yet, many land managers consider Serenoa a troublesome invasive plant. Accordingly, management plans have been developed to reduce or eliminate Serenoa with little understanding of its life history. Using Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphisms, we genotyped 263 Serenoa and 134 Sabal etonia (a sympatric non-clonal palmetto) samples collected from a 20 X 20 m study plot in Florida scrub. Sabal samples were used to assign small field-unidentifiable palmettos to Serenoa or Sabal and also as a negative control for clone detection. We then mathematically modelled clonal networks to estimate genet ages. Our results suggest that Serenoa predominantly propagate via vegetative sprouts and 10000-year-old genets may be common, while showing no evidence of clone formation by Sabal. The results of this and our previous studies suggest that: (i) Serenoa has been part of scrub associations for thousands of years, (ii) Serenoa invasion are unlikely and (ii) once Serenoa is eliminated from local communities, its restoration will be difficult. Reevaluation of the current management tools and plans is an urgent task.

Extensive clonal spread and extreme longevity in saw palmetto, a foundation clonal plant

The lack of effective tools has hampered our ability to assess the size, growth and ages of clonal plants. With Serenoa repens (saw palmetto) as a model, we introduce a novel analytical frame work that integrates DNA fingerprinting and mathematical modelling to simulate growth and estimate ages of clonal plants. We also demonstrate the application of such life-history information of clonal plants to provide insight into management plans. Serenoa is an ecologically important foundation species in many Southeastern United States ecosystems; yet, many land managers consider Serenoa a troublesome invasive plant. Accordingly, management plans have been developed to reduce or eliminate Serenoa with little understanding of its life history. Using Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphisms, we genotyped 263 Serenoa and 134 Sabal etonia (a sympatric non-clonal palmetto) samples collected from a 20 x 20 m study plot in Florida scrub. Sabal samples were used to assign small field-unidentifiable palmettos to Serenoa or Sabal and also as a negative control for clone detection. We then mathematically modelled clonal networks to estimate genet ages. Our results suggest that Serenoa predominantly propagate via vegetative sprouts and 10000-year-old genets maybe common, while showing no evidence of clone formation by Sabal. The results of this and our previous studies suggest that: (i) Serenoa has been part of scrub associations for thousands of years, (ii) Serenoa invasions are unlikely and (ii) once Serenoa is eliminated from local communities, its restoration will be difficult. Reevaluation of the current management tools and plans is an urgent task.

Analysis of non-porcine isolates of Actinobacillus suis

Twenty-four Actinobacillus suis isolates obtained from several species of non-porcine mammals were compared to the representative porcine strains, ATCC 15557 (serotype O1) and H89-1173 (serotype O2), by O serotyping, DNA fingerprinting, PCR amplification of apxICA, apxIICA and apxIIICA toxin genes and by rrs (16S rRNA) gene sequencing. Only two strains, both equine, reacted with O1 antiserum while two others, one canine and the other feline, reacted with O2 antiserum. One equine strain reacted weakly with both antisera. No amplification of apx genes was found with the non-porcine O1 or the "not O1/O2" strains but amplification of the apxICA and apxIICA genes was observed with the two O2 strains. In addition, these two O2 strains had both BamHI and BglII fingerprints that were very similar to the porcine O2 reference strain, H89-1173 and rrs gene sequences that were identical to the A. suis reference strain ATCC 15557. Taken together, these data suggest that although many non-porcine A. suis isolates are not A. suis (sensu stricto), some isolates are genotypically as well as phenotypically similar to A. suis.

Molecular epidemiology of vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium: a prospective, multicenter study in South American hospitals.

Enterococcus faecium has emerged as an important nosocomial pathogen worldwide, and this trend has been associated with the dissemination of a genetic lineage designated clonal cluster 17 (CC17). Enterococcal isolates were collected prospectively (2006 to 2008) from 32 hospitals in Colombia, Ecuador, Perú, and Venezuela and subjected to antimicrobial susceptibility testing. Genotyping was performed with all vancomycin-resistant E. faecium (VREfm) isolates by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and multilocus sequence typing. All VREfm isolates were evaluated for the presence of 16 putative virulence genes (14 fms genes, the esp gene of E. faecium [espEfm], and the hyl gene of E. faecium [hylEfm]) and plasmids carrying the fms20-fms21 (pilA), hylEfm, and vanA genes. Of 723 enterococcal isolates recovered, E. faecalis was the most common (78%). Vancomycin resistance was detected in 6% of the isolates (74% of which were E. faecium). Eleven distinct PFGE types were found among the VREfm isolates, with most belonging to sequence types 412 and 18. The ebpAEfm-ebpBEfm-ebpCEfm (pilB) and fms11-fms19-fms16 clusters were detected in all VREfm isolates from the region, whereas espEfm and hylEfm were detected in 69% and 23% of the isolates, respectively. The fms20-fms21 (pilA) cluster, which encodes a putative pilus-like protein, was found on plasmids from almost all VREfm isolates and was sometimes found to coexist with hylEfm and the vanA gene cluster. The population genetics of VREfm in South America appear to resemble those of such strains in the United States in the early years of the CC17 epidemic. The overwhelming presence of plasmids encoding putative virulence factors and vanA genes suggests that E. faecium from the CC17 genogroup may disseminate in the region in the coming years.

A functional collagen adhesin gene, acm, in clinical isolates of Enterococcus faecium correlates with the recent success of this emerging nosocomial pathogen.

Enterococcus faecium recently evolved from a generally avirulent commensal into a multidrug-resistant health care-associated pathogen causing difficult-to-treat infections, but little is known about the factors responsible for this change. We previously showed that some E. faecium strains express a cell wall-anchored collagen adhesin, Acm. Here we analyzed 90 E. faecium isolates (99% acm(+)) and found that the Acm protein was detected predominantly in clinically derived isolates, while the acm gene was present as a transposon-interrupted pseudogene in 12 of 47 isolates of nonclinical origin. A highly significant association between clinical (versus fecal or food) origin and collagen adherence (P

A trilocus sequence typing scheme for hospital epidemiology and subspecies differentiation of an important nosocomial pathogen, Enterococcus faecalis.

In this study, we present a trilocus sequence typing (TLST) scheme based on intragenic regions of two antigenic genes, ace and salA (encoding a collagen/laminin adhesin and a cell wall-associated antigen, respectively), and a gene associated with antibiotic resistance, lsa (encoding a putative ABC transporter), for subspecies differentiation of Enterococcus faecalis. Each of the alleles was analyzed using 50 E. faecalis isolates representing 42 diverse multilocus sequence types (ST(M); based on seven housekeeping genes) and four groups of clonally linked (by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis [PFGE]) isolates. The allelic profiles and/or concatenated sequences of the three genes agreed with multilocus sequence typing (MLST) results for typing of 49 of the 50 isolates; in addition to the one exception, two isolates were found to have identical TLST types but were single-locus variants (differing by a single nucleotide) by MLST and were therefore also classified as clonally related by MLST. TLST was also comparable to PFGE for establishing short-term epidemiological relationships, typing all isolates classified as clonally related by PFGE with the same type. TLST was then applied to representative isolates (of each PFGE subtype and isolation year) of a collection of 48 hospital isolates and demonstrated the same relationships between isolates of an outbreak strain as those found by MLST and PFGE. In conclusion, the TLST scheme described here was shown to be successful for investigating short-term epidemiology in a hospital setting and may provide an alternative to MLST for discriminating isolates.

Extreme clonal uniformity of Phoxinus eos/neogaeus gynogens (pisces: Cyprinidae) among variable habitats in northern Minnesota beaver ponds.

Genetic surveys of parthenogenetic vertebrate populations have demonstrated a common pattern of relatively high degrees of clonal variation and the coexistence of numerous clones. In striking contrast, the Phoxinus eos/Phoxinus neogaeus/hybrid gynogen complex of cyprinid fishes exhibits no clonal variation within a northern Minnesota drainage characterized by successional beaver ponds. Gynogens were sampled from three habitats in each of four different pond types in a single drainage in Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota. The abundance of gynogens relative to sexual dace varied with pond type, being least common in deep upland ponds and most common in shallow, collapsed, lowland ponds (13.4% and 48.6%, respectively). Simple-sequence multilocus DNA fingerprinting of 464 individual gynogens detected one, and only one, clone. DNA fingerprints, generated sequentially by using three oligonucleotide probes, (CAC)5, (GACA)4, and the Jeffreys' 33.15 probe, all revealed the same unprecedented lack of variation. The extreme lack of clonal diversity in these gynogens across a range of habitat types does not fit the general pattern of high clonal diversity found within populations of other vertebrate parthenogens.

A new predilection site of Mycoplasma bovis: Postsurgical seromas in beef cattle

Mycoplasma bovis is a highly contagious bacterium, which predominantly causes chronic pneumonia, otitis and arthritis in calves and mastitis in adult cattle. In humans, Mycoplasma species have been associated with post-surgical infections. The present study aimed to identify the bacteria associated with three outbreaks of infected seromas after caesarian section in Belgian Blue beef cattle. A total of 10 cases occurred in three herds which were in close proximity of each other and shared the same veterinary practice. M. bovis could be cultured from seroma fluid in five of the six referred animals, mostly in pure culture and was isolated from multiple chronic sites of infection (arthritis and mastitis) as well. DNA fingerprinting of the isolates targeting two insertion sequence elements suggested spread of M. bovis from chronic sites of infection (udder and joints) to the postsurgical seromas. Identical genetic profiles were demonstrated in two animals from two separate farms, suggesting spread between farms. Mortality rate in the referred animals positive for M. bovis in a seroma was 80% (4/5), despite intensive treatment. A massive increase in antimicrobial use was observed in every affected farm. These observations demonstrate involvement of mycoplasmas in outbreaks of postsurgical seromas in cattle.

Genetic diversity revealed in the apomictic fruit species Garcinia mangostana L. (mangosteen)

The novel molecular marker technique Randomly Amplified DNA Fingerprinting (RAF) was used to survey genetic relationships between 37 accessions of the tropical fruit G. mangostana (mangosteen) and among 11 accessions from eight other Garcinia species. Although mangosteen is believed to reproduce exclusively through apomixis, our results show that considerable genetic diversity exists within G. mangostana and between other Garcinia species. Among the 37 G. mangostana accessions examined, nine different genotypes were identified which clustered into three distinct groups based on correspondence analysis (reciprocal averaging). For 26 (70%) of the accessions no marker variation was detected over 530 loci screened. A further eight (22%) accessions exhibited very low levels of variation (0.2-1%) suggesting at least one well conservedm angosteen genotype. The remaining three accessions (8%) showed extensive variation (22-31%) compared with the majority of accessions. The three mangosteen groups were 63-70% dissimilar to the other Garcinia species investigated. The genetic diversity identified in this research will assist in the conservation of Garcinia germplasm and provides a valuable framework for the genetic improvement of mangosteen.

Fine mapping of the tomato I-3 gene for fusarium wilt resistance and elimination of a co-segregating resistance gene analogue as a candidate for I-3

The I-3 gene from the wild tomato species Lycopersicon pennellii confers resistance to race 3 of the devastating vascular wilt pathogen Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. lycopersici. As an initial step in a positional cloning strategy for the isolation of I-3, we converted restriction fragment length polymorphism and conserved orthologue set markers, known genes and a resistance gene analogue (RGA) mapping to the I-3 region into PCR-based sequence characterised amplified region (SCAR) and cleaved amplified polymorphic sequence (CAPS) markers. Additional PCR-based markers in the I-3 region were generated using the randomly amplified DNA fingerprinting (RAF) technique. SCAR, CAPS and RAF markers were used for high-resolution mapping around the I-3 locus. The I-3 gene was localised to a 0.3-cM region containing a RAF marker, eO6, and an RGA, RGA332. RGA332 was cloned and found to correspond to a putative pseudogene with at least two loss-of-function mutations. The predicted pseudogene belongs to the Toll interleukin-1 receptor-nucleotide-binding site-leucine-rich-repeat sub-class of plant disease resistance genes. Despite the presence of two RGA332 homologues in L. esculentum, DNA gel blot and PCR analysis suggests that no other homologues are present in lines carrying I-3 that could be alternative candidates for the gene.

A comparison of molecular markers for genetic analysis of macadamia

Various marker systems exist for genetic analysis of horticultural species. Isozymes were first applied to the woody perennial nut crop, macadamia, in the early 1990s. The advent of DNA markers saw the development, for macadamia, of STMS (sequence-tagged microsatellite site), RAPD (randomly amplified polymorphic DNA), and RAF (randomly amplified DNA fingerprinting). The RAF technique typically generates dominant markers, but within the dominant marker profiles, certain primers also amplify multi-allelic co-dominant markers that are suspected to be microsatellites. In this paper, we confirm this for one such marker, and describe how RAF primers can be chosen that amplify one or more putative microsatellites. This approach of genotyping anonymous microsatellite markers via RAF is designated RAMiFi (randomly amplified microsatellite fingerprinting). Several marker systems were compared for the type, amount, and cost-efficiency of the information generated, using data from published studies on macadamia. The markers were also compared for the way they clustered a common set of accessions. The RAMiFi approach was identified as the most efficient and economical. The availability of such a versatile tool offers many advantages for the genetic characterisation of horticultural species.

Increase of a Caribbean leatherback turtle Dermochelys coriacea nesting population linked to long-term nest protection

The leatherback turtle Dermochelys coriacea is considered to be at serious risk of global extinction, despite ongoing conservation efforts. Intensive long-term monitoring of a leatherback nesting population on Sandy Point (St. Croix, US Virgin Islands) offers a unique opportunity to quantify basic population parameters and evaluate effectiveness of nesting beach conservation practices. We report a significant increase in the number of females nesting annually from ca. 18-30 in the 1980s to 186 in 2001, with a corresponding increase in annual hatchling production from ca. 2000 to over 49,000. We then analyzed resighting data from 1991 to 2001 with an open robust-design capture-mark-recapture model to estimate annual nester survival and adult abundance for this population. The expected annual survival probability was estimated at ca. 0.893 (95% CL 0.87-0.92) and the population was estimated to be increasing ca. 13% pa since the early 1990s. Taken together with DNA fingerprinting that identify mother-daughter relations, our findings suggest that the increase in the size of the nesting population since 1991 was probably due to an aggressive program of beach protection and egg relocation initiated more than 20 years ago. Beach protection and egg relocation provide a simple and effective conservation strategy for this Northern Caribbean nesting population as long as adult survival at sea remains relatively high. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.