Demographic and functional responses of wild dogs to poison baiting

Lethal control of wild dogs - that is Dingo (Canis lupus dingo) and Dingo/Dog (Canis lupus familiaris) hybrids - to reduce livestock predation in Australian rangelands is claimed to cause continental-scale impacts on biodiversity. Although top predator populations may recover numerically after baiting, they are predicted to be functionally different and incapable of fulfilling critical ecological roles. This study reports the impact of baiting programmes on wild dog abundance, age structures and the prey of wild dogs during large-scale manipulative experiments. Wild dog relative abundance almost always decreased after baiting, but reductions were variable and short-lived unless the prior baiting programme was particularly effective or there were follow-up baiting programmes within a few months. However, age structures of wild dogs in baited and nil-treatment areas were demonstrably different, and prey populations did diverge relative to nil-treatment areas. Re-analysed observations of wild dogs preying on kangaroos from a separate study show that successful chases that result in attacks of kangaroos by wild dogs occurred when mean wild dog ages were higher and mean group size was larger. It is likely that the impact of lethal control on wild dog numbers, group sizes and age structures compromise their ability to handle large difficult-to-catch prey. Under certain circumstances, these changes sometimes lead to increased calf loss (Bos indicus/B. taurus genotypes) and kangaroo numbers. Rangeland beef producers could consider controlling wild dogs in high-risk periods when predation is more likely and avoid baiting at other times.

Field-tunable stochasticity in the magnetization reversal of a cylindrical nanomagnet

The nature of magnetization reversal in an isolated cylindrical nanomagnet has been studied employing time-resolved magnetoresistance measurement. We find that the reversal mode is highly stochastic, occurring either by multimode or single-step switching. Intriguingly, the stochasticity was found to depend on the alignment of the driving magnetic field to the long axis of the nanowires, where predominantly multimode switching gives way to single-step switching behavior as the field direction is rotated from parallel to transverse with respect to the nanowire axis.

Phylogeography and demographic history of Lacerta lepida in the Iberian Peninsula

The Iberian Peninsula is recognized as an important refugial area for species survival and diversification during the climatic cycles of the Quaternary. Recent phylogeographic studies have revealed Iberia as a complex of multiple refugia. However, most of these studies have focused either on species with narrow distributions within the region or species groups that, although widely distributed, generally have a genetic structure that relates to pre-Quaternary cladogenetic events. In this study we undertake a detailed phylogeographic analysis of the lizard species, Lacerta lepida, whose distribution encompasses the entire Iberian Peninsula. We attempt to identify refugial areas, recolonization routes, zones of secondary contact and date demographic events within this species. Results support the existence of 6 evolutionary lineages (phylogroups) with a strong association between genetic variation and geography, suggesting a history of allopatric divergence in different refugia. Diversification within phylogroups is concordant with the onset of the Pleistocene climatic oscillations. The southern regions of several phylogroups show a high incidence of ancestral alleles in contrast with high incidence of recently derived alleles in northern regions. All phylogroups show signs of recent demographic and spatial expansions. We have further identified several zones of secondary contact, with divergent mitochondrial haplotypes occurring in narrow zones of sympatry. The concordant patterns of spatial and demographic expansions detected within phylogroups, together with the high incidence of ancestral haplotypes in southern regions of several phylogroups, suggests a pattern of contraction of populations into southern refugia during adverse climatic conditions from which subsequent northern expansions occurred. This study supports the emergent pattern of multiple refugia within Iberia but adds to it by identifying a pattern of refugia coincident with the southern distribution limits of individual evolutionary lineages. These areas are important in terms of long-term species persistence and therefore important areas for conservation.

Demographic history of India and mtDNA-sequence diversity

The demographic history of India was examined by comparing mtDNA sequences obtained from members of three culturally divergent Indian subpopulations (endogamous caste groups). While an inferred tree revealed some clustering according to caste affiliation, there was no clear separation into three genetically distinct groups along caste lines. Comparison of pairwise nucleotide difference distributions, however, did indicate a difference in growth patterns between two of the castes. The Brahmin population appears to have undergone either a rapid expansion or steady growth. The low-ranking Mukri caste, however, may have either maintained a roughly constant population size or undergone multiple bottlenecks during that period. Comparison of the Indian sequences to those obtained from other populations, using a tree, revealed that the Indian sequences, along with ah other non-African samples, form a starlike cluster. This cluster may represent a major expansion, possibly originating in southern Asia, taking place at some point after modern humans initially left Africa.

A stochasticity threshold in holography and the instability of AdS

We give strong numerical evidence that a self-interacting probe scalar field in AdS, with only a few modes turned on initially, will undergo fast thermalization only if it is above a certain energetic threshold. Below the threshold the energy stays close to constant in a few modes for a very long time instead of cascading quickly. This indicates the existence of a Strong Stochasticity Threshold (SST) in holography. The idea of SST is familiar from certain statistical mechanical systems, and we suggest that it exists also in AdS gravity. This would naturally reconcile the generic nonlinear instability of AdS observed by Bizon and Rostworowski, with the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam-Tsingou-like quasiperiodicity noticed recently for some classes of initial conditions. We show that our simple setup captures many of the relevant features of the full gravity-scalar system.

Caribbean connectivity: implications for Marine Protected Area Management. Proceedings of a Special Symposium, 9-11 November 2006, 59th Annual Meeting of the Gulf and Caribbean Fisheries Institute, Belize City, Belize

Executive Summary: Tropical marine ecosystems in the Caribbean region are inextricably linked through the movement of pollutants, nutrients, diseases, and other stressors, which threaten to further degrade coral reef communities. The magnitude of change that is occurring within the region is considerable, and solutions will require investigating pros and cons of networks of marine protected areas (MPAs), cooperation of neighboring countries, improved understanding of how external stressors degrade local marine resources, and ameliorating those stressors. Connectivity can be broadly defined as the exchange of materials (e.g., nutrients and pollutants), organisms, and genes and can be divided into: 1) genetic or evolutionary connectivity that concerns the exchange of organisms and genes, 2) demographic connectivity, which is the exchange of individuals among local groups, and 3) oceanographic connectivity, which includes flow of materials and circulation patterns and variability that underpin much of all these exchanges. Presently, we understand little about connectivity at specific locations beyond model outputs, and yet we must manage MPAs with connectivity in mind. A key to successful MPA management is how to most effectively work with scientists to acquire the information managers need. Oceanography connectivity is poorly understood, and even less is known about the shape of the dispersal curve for most species. Dispersal kernels differ for various systems, species, and life histories and are likely highly variable in space and time. Furthermore, the implications of different dispersal kernels on population dynamics and management of species is unknown. However, small dispersal kernels are the norm - not the exception. Linking patterns of dispersal to management options is difficult given the present state of knowledge. The behavioral component of larval dispersal has a major impact on where larvae settle. Individual larval behavior and life history details are required to produce meaningful simulations of population connectivity. Biological inputs are critical determinants of dispersal outcomes beyond what can be gleaned from models of passive dispersal. There is considerable temporal and spatial variation to connectivity patterns. New models are increasingly being developed, but these must be validated to understand upstream-downstream neighborhoods, dispersal corridors, stepping stones, and source/sink dynamics. At present, models are mainly useful for providing generalities and generating hypotheses. Low-technology approaches such as drifter vials and oceanographic drogues are useful, affordable options for understanding local connectivity. The “silver bullet” approach to MPA design may not be possible for several reasons. Genetic connectivity studies reveal divergent population genetic structures despite similar larval life histories. Historical stochasticity in reproduction and/or recruitment likely has important, longlasting consequences on present day genetic structure. (PDF has 200 pages.)

Demographic studies of extrasolar planets

Uncovering the demographics of extrasolar planets is crucial to understanding the processes of their formation and evolution. In this thesis, we present four studies that contribute to this end, three of which relate to NASA's Kepler mission, which has revolutionized the field of exoplanets in the last few years.

In the pre-Kepler study, we investigate a sample of exoplanet spin-orbit measurements---measurements of the inclination of a planet's orbit relative to the spin axis of its host star---to determine whether a dominant planet migration channel can be identified, and at what confidence. Applying methods of Bayesian model comparison to distinguish between the predictions of several different migration models, we find that the data strongly favor a two-mode migration scenario combining planet-planet scattering and disk migration over a single-mode Kozai migration scenario. While we test only the predictions of particular Kozai and scattering migration models in this work, these methods may be used to test the predictions of any other spin-orbit misaligning mechanism.

We then present two studies addressing astrophysical false positives in Kepler data. The Kepler mission has identified thousands of transiting planet candidates, and only relatively few have yet been dynamically confirmed as bona fide planets, with only a handful more even conceivably amenable to future dynamical confirmation. As a result, the ability to draw detailed conclusions about the diversity of exoplanet systems from Kepler detections relies critically on understanding the probability that any individual candidate might be a false positive. We show that a typical a priori false positive probability for a well-vetted Kepler candidate is only about 5-10%, enabling confidence in demographic studies that treat candidates as true planets. We also present a detailed procedure that can be used to securely and efficiently validate any individual transit candidate using detailed information of the signal's shape as well as follow-up observations, if available.

Finally, we calculate an empirical, non-parametric estimate of the shape of the radius distribution of small planets with periods less than 90 days orbiting cool (less than 4000K) dwarf stars in the Kepler catalog. This effort reveals several notable features of the distribution, in particular a maximum in the radius function around 1-1.25 Earth radii and a steep drop-off in the distribution larger than 2 Earth radii. Even more importantly, the methods presented in this work can be applied to a broader subsample of Kepler targets to understand how the radius function of planets changes across different types of host stars.

Age validation, growth, mortality, and demographic modeling of spotted gully shark (Triakis megalopterus) from the southeast coast of South Africa

This study documents validation of vertebral band-pair formation in spotted gully shark (Triakis megalopterus) with the use of fluorochrome injection and tagging of captive and wild sharks over a 21-year period. Growth and mortality rates of T. megalopterus were also estimated and a demographic analysis of the species was conducted. Of the 23 OTC (oxytetracycline) -marked vertebrae examined (12 from captive and 11 from wild sharks), seven vertebrae (three from captive and four from wild sharks) exhibited chelation of the OTC and fluoresced under ultraviolet light. It was concluded that a single opaque and translucent band pair was deposited annually up to at least 25 years of age, the maximum age recorded. Reader precision was assessed by using an index of average percent error calculated at 5%. No significant differences were found between male and female growth patterns (P>0.05), and von Bertalanffy growth model parameters for combined sexes were estimated to be L∞=1711.07 mm TL, k=0.11/yr and t0=–2.43 yr (n=86). Natural mortality was estimated at 0.17/yr. Age at maturity was estimated at 11 years for males and 15 years for females. Results of the demographic analysis showed that the population, in the absence of fishing mortality, was stable and not significantly different from zero and particularly sensitive to overfishing. At the current age at first capture and natural mortality rate, the fishing mortality rate required to result in negative population growth was low at F>0.004/ yr. Elasticity analysis revealed that juvenile survival was the principal factor in explaining variability in population growth rate.

Demographic characteristics of exploited tropical lutjanids: a comparative analysis

Demographic parameters from seven exploited coral reef lutjanid species were compared as a case study of the implications of intrafamily variation in life histories for multispecies harvest management. Modal lengths varied by 4 cm among four species (Lutjanus fulviflamma, L. vitta, L. carponotatus, L. adetii), which were at least 6 cm smaller than the modal lengths of the largest species (L. gibbus, Symphorus nematophorus, Aprion virescens). Modal ages, indicating ages of full selection to fishing gear, were 10 years or less for all species, but maximum ages ranged from 12 (L. gibbus) to 36 years (S. nematophorus). Each species had a unique growth pattern, with differences in length-at-age and mean asymptotic fork length (L∞), but smaller species generally grew fast during the first 1–2 years of life and larger species grew more slowly over a longer period. Total mortality rates varied among species; L. gibbus had the highest mortality and L. fulviflamma, the lowest mortality. The variability in life history strategies of these tropical lutjanids makes generalizations about lutjanid life histories difficult, but the fact that all seven had characteristics that would make them particularly vulnerable to fishing indicates that harvest of tropical lutjanids should be managed with caution.

A Demographic Profile of Participants in Two Gulf of Mexico Inshore Shrimp Fisheries and Their Response to the Texas Closure

A social study of the shrimp fisheries of Galveston Bay, Tex., and Calcasieu Lake, La., was made during the summer of 1987 to examine the impacts of the seasonal closure of the Federal waters off Texas and to understand the infrastructure and demographic processes of these two diverse fisheries. Survey instruments were administered to 159 shrimp boat captains: 89 from Galveston Bay and 70 from Calcasieu Lake. Shrimp-house owners were interviewed in each region as well. The results suggest that the inshore fisheries (i.e., shrimpers and shrimp houses) are distinct from the offshore fisheries. The infrastructure of the two inshore fisheries examined differ in that the market distribution of shrimp from Galveston Bay was more diffuse than from Calcasieu Lake. Much more of the shrimp harvested from Galveston Bay was channelled into the surrounding community than from Calcasieu Lake. The distribution of age,years as a commercial fisherman, and family involvement in fishing suggest that participation in Calcasieu Lake's and Galveston Bay's inshore fisheries have expanded concurrent with declining economies. While overall the Texas closure had little impact on either of the inshore fisheries, the Galveston Bay shrimpers experienced more of a direct impact on their livelihood than Calcasieu Lake shrimpers.