Military crisis management in the next decade (2020-2030) : inducing consent or relying on compliance?

The most outstanding conceptual challenge of modern crisis management is the principle of consent. It is not a problem only at the operational level - it challenges the entire decision-making structures of crisis management operations. In post-cold war times and especially in the 21st century, there has been a transition from peacekeeping with limited size and scope towards large and complex peace operations. This shift has presented peace operations with a dilemma. How to balance between maintaining consent for peace operations, whilst being able to use military force to coerce those attempting to wreck peace processes? To address such a dilemma, this research aims to promote understanding, on what can be achieved by military crisis management operations (peace support operations) in the next decade. The research concentrates on the focal research question: Should military components induce consent or rely on the compliance of conflicting parties in crisis management operations of the next decade (2020 – 2030)? The focus is on military – political strategic level considerations, and especially on the time before political decisions to commit to a crisis management operation. This study does not focus on which actor or organisation should intervene. The framework of this thesis derives from the so called ‘peacebuilding space’, the scope of peace operations and spoiler theory. Feasibility of both peace enforcement and peacekeeping in countering future risk conditions are analysed in this framework. This future-orientated qualitative research uses the Delphi-method with a panel of national and international experts. Citation analysis supports identification of relevant reference material, which consists of contemporary literature, the Delphi-questionnaires and interviews. The research process followed three main stages. In the first stage, plausible future scenarios and risk conditions were identified with the Delphi-panel. In the second stage, operating environments for peace support operations were described and consequent hypotheses formulated. In the third stage, these hypotheses were tested on the Delphi-panel. The Delphi-panel is sufficiently wide and diverse to produce plausible yet different insights. The research design utilised specifically military crisis management and peace operations theories. This produced various and relevant normative considerations. Therefore, one may argue that this research; which is based on accepted contemporary theory, hypotheses derived thereof and utilising an expert panel, contributes to the realm of peace support operations. This research finds that some degree of peace enforcement will be feasible and necessary in at least the following risk conditions: failed governance; potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; vulnerability of strategic chokepoints and infrastructures in ungoverned spaces; as well as in territorial and extra-territorial border disputes. In addition, some form of peace enforcement is probably necessary in risk conditions pertaining to: extremism of marginalised groups; potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories; and interstate rivalry. Furthermore, this research finds that peacekeeping measures will be feasible and necessary in at least risk conditions pertaining to: potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; uncontrolled migration; consequences from environmental catastrophes or changes; territorial and extra-territorial border disputes; and potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories. These findings are all subject to both generic and case specific preconditions that must exist for a peace support operation. Some deductions could be derived from the research findings. Although some risk conditions may appear illogical, understanding the underlying logic of a conflict is fundamental to understanding transition in crisis management. Practitioners of crisis management should possess cognizance of such transition. They must understand how transition should occur from threat to safety, from conflict to stability – and so forth. Understanding transition is imperative for managing the dynamic evolution of preconditions, which begins at the outset of a peace support operation. Furthermore, it is pertinent that spoilers are defined from a peace process point of view. If spoilers are defined otherwise, it changes the nature of an operation towards war, where the logic is breaking the will of an enemy - and surrender. In peace support operations, the logic is different: actions towards spoilers are intended to cause transition towards consent - not defeat. Notwithstanding future developments, history continues to provide strategic education. However, the distinction is that the risk conditions occur in novel futures. Hence, lessons learned from the past should be fitted to the case at hand. This research shows compelling evidence that swaying between intervention optimism and pessimism is not substantiated. Both peace enforcement and peacekeeping are sine qua non for successful military crisis management in the next decade.

Role of Capabilities in Purchasing and Supply Management Performance

The objective of this thesis was to study the role of capabilities in purchasing and supply management. For the pre-understanding of the research topic, purchasing and supply management development and the multidimensional, unstructured and complex nature of purchasing and supply management performance was studied in literature review. In addition, a capability-based purchasing and supply management performance framework were researched and structured for the empirical research. Due to the unstructured nature of the research topic, the empirical research is three-pronged in this study including three different research methods: the Delphi method, semi-structured interview, and case research. As a result, the purchasing and supply management capability assessment tool was structured to measure current level of capabilities and impact of capabilities on purchasing and supply management performance. The final results indicate that capabilities are enablers of purchasing and supply management performance, and therefore critical to purchasing and supply performance.

Fraud detection in the banking sector : a multi-agent approach

Fraud is an increasing phenomenon as shown in many surveys carried out by leading international consulting companies in the last years. Despite the evolution of electronic payments and hacking techniques there is still a strong human component in fraud schemes. Conflict of interest in particular is the main contributing factor to the success of internal fraud. In such cases anomaly detection tools are not always the best instruments, since the fraud schemes are based on faking documents in a context dominated by lack of controls, and the perpetrators are those ones who should control possible irregularities. In the banking sector audit team experts can count only on their experience, whistle blowing and the reports sent by their inspectors. The Fraud Interactive Decision Expert System (FIDES), which is the core of this research, is a multi-agent system built to support auditors in evaluating suspicious behaviours and to speed up the evaluation process in order to detect or prevent fraud schemes. The system combines Think-map, Delphi method and Attack trees and it has been built around audit team experts and their needs. The output of FIDES is an attack tree, a tree-based diagram to ”systematically categorize the different ways in which a system can be attacked”. Once the attack tree is built, auditors can choose the path they perceive as more suitable and decide whether or not to start the investigation. The system is meant for use in the future to retrieve old cases in order to match them with new ones and find similarities. The retrieving features of the system will be useful to simplify the risk management phase, since similar countermeasures adopted for past cases might be useful for present ones. Even though FIDES has been built with the banking sector in mind, it can be applied in all those organisations, like insurance companies or public organizations, where anti-fraud activity is based on a central anti-fraud unit and a reporting system.

Päivystyshoitotyön osaaminen valmistuvien sairaanhoitajaopiskelijoiden arvioimana

Potilaan hoitamisessa korostuvat mm. triagen tekeminen, potilaan voinnin seuranta ja hoitoa koskevien päätösten tekeminen nopeasti potilaan voinnin mukaan sekä potilaan jatkohoidon turvaaminen. Tämä kaksivaiheinen koulutustutkimus kohdistui päivystyshoitotyön osaamiseen. Tutkimuksen ensimmäisessä vaiheessa määriteltiin päivystyshoitotyön osaaminen ja toisessa vaiheessa arvioitiin valmistuvien sairaanhoitajaopiskelijoiden päivystyshoitotyön osaamista ja osaamiseen yhteydessä olevia tekijöitä. Osaamisen arvioinnin suorittivat opiskelijat itse ja vertailuperustana opiskelijoiden päivystyshoitotyön osaamiselle käytettiin ammatissa toimivien sairaanhoitajien päivystyshoitotyön osaamista. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli arvioinnin perusteella määrittää päivystyshoitotyön osaamisen nykytaso ja tehdä tarvittavat ehdotukset päivystyshoitotyön osaamisen kehittämiseen. Tutkimuksen ensimmäisessä vaiheessa (2006–2012) tiedonkeruumenetelminä oli kirjallisuuskatsaus ja asiantuntija-arviointi hyödyntäen delphi-menetelmää. Kirjallisuuskatsauksen perusteella muodostettiin päivystyshoitotyön osaamista kuvaavat pääkategoriat, yläkategoriat ja alakategoriat.Alakategoriat (n=61) annettiin asiantuntijoille (sairaanhoitajat, opettajat, ylihoitajat) arvioitavaksi.Kaksivaiheisen asiantuntija-arvioinnin perusteella muodostui 92 päivystyshoitotyön osaamista kuvaavaa alakategoriaa. Tutkimuksen toisessa vaiheessa (2007–2012) valmistuvien suomalaisten sairaanhoitaja-opiskelijoiden (N=382, n=208, vastausprosentti 55 %) päivystyshoitotyön osaamista arvioitiin tätä tutkimusta varten kehitetyllä mittarilla (Päivystyshoitotyön osaaminen -mittari). Mittari perustui tutkimuksen ensimmäisessä vaiheessa muodostettuun määrittelyyn päivystyshoitotyön osaamisesta. Osaamista mitattiin VAS-janalla (asteikko 0–100) arvon 100 ollessa optimaalinen taso, johon pyrittiin. Sairaanhoitajaopiskelijoiden tavoiteltavaksi osaamisen tasoksi asetettiin 80 olettaen opiskelijoiden osaamisen vielä kehittyvän työkokemuksen myötä. Ammatissa toimivien sairaanhoitajien (N=586, n=280, vastausprosentti 48 %) itsearvioitua osaamista käytettiin vertailuperustana opiskelijoiden osaamiselle. Aineisto analysoitiin tilastollisin menetelmin. Valmistuvien sairaanhoitajaopiskelijoiden itsearvioitu päivystyshoitotyön osaaminen oli alle tavoiteltavan osaamisen tason. Opiskelijoilla oli mielestään eniten eettistä osaamista sekä vuorovaikutus- ja yhteistyöosaamista ja vähiten päätöksenteko-osaamista ja kliinistä osaamista. Myös ammatissa toimivilla sairaanhoitajilla oli mielestään eniten vuorovaikutus- ja yhteistyöosaamista. Vähiten heillä oli ohjausosaamista ja päätöksenteko-osaamista. Sairaanhoitajilla oli tilastollisesti merkitsevästi enemmän päivystyshoitotyön osaamista kuin opiskelijoilla. Opiskelijoiden päivystyshoitotyön osaamista selitti eniten aikaisempi terveysalan tutkinto. Päivystyshoitotyön osaamisen kehittämisehdotukset kohdistuvat ammatillisen peruskoulutuksen ja täydennyskoulutuksen opetuksen sisältöihin ja määrään, opetus- ja opiskelumenetelmiin, osaamisen arviointiin sekä urasuunnitteluun. Jatkotutkimusehdotukset kohdistuvat päivystyshoitotyön osaamisen määrittelyn ja osaamista arvioivan mittarin edelleen kehittämiseen, erilaisten arviointimenetelmien kehittämiseen sekä osaamiseen yhteydessä olevien tekijöiden edelleen tutkimiseen.

Barriers of ESCO Service Business in Finland

The purpose of this study is to determine what are the key barriers hampering ESCO service business success in Finland. Research approach for this study is qualitative. Data was collected using Delphi method with two questionnaire rounds. Internet based tool was applied in carrying out questionnaires. Respondents of the questionnaires were ESCO service experts and researchers, and people working for ESCO service providers. Characteristics of ESCO service and ESCO project implementation are analyzed by using transaction costs theory of service business. In terms of ESCO service in Finland, uncertainty and asset specificity are relevant dimensions of TCE. General uncertainty in world’s economy hinders demand for ESCO service, and asset specificity of ESCO contracts induces slight problems for project financiers. Also bounded rationalism and opportunism are present in Finnish ESCO business. The most significant barriers of success of ESCO service in Finland are problems in legislative and political frameworks, and in customers’ investment processes. ESCO service providers should move more strongly towards service dominant business logic and improve understanding of customer needs. Political barriers are unsuitable procurement processes, unclear and unpredictable laws, and lack of compelling factors in subsidy system. Investment process hurdles are caused by customers’ lack of interest to change course of action. These are things in which ESCOs can have influence in.

Kestävät liiketoimintamallit 2030

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on tunnistaa erilaisia tulevaisuuskuvia siitä, miltä tulevaisuuden kestävät liiketoimintamallit voisivat näyttää vuonna 2030 ja miten toivottuun tulevaisuuskuvaan päästään. Lisäksi tavoitteena on esittää perusteluja mitä kestävällä liiketoimintamallilla ylipäänsä tarkoitetaan. Eksploratiivisen tutkimuksen aineisto on kerätty tulevaisuuden tutkimuksen piirissä paljon käytetyllä Delfoi-menetelmällä. Ymmärrys kestävien liiketoimintamallien luonteesta pohjautuu systemaattiseen kirjallisuuskatsaukseen. Tutkimus käsittää teoriakatsauksen kestävistä liiketoimintamalleista ja kestävää liiketoimintaa tukevasta liiketoimintaympäristöstä. Lisäksi empiriaosuudessa esitetään asiantuntijanäkemyksiä kestävien liiketoimintamallien ominaispiirteistä vuonna 2030 ja muutoksen aikaansaamiseen vaikuttavista tekijöistä. Tuloksena on esitys tulevaisuuden todennäköisistä sekä toivottavista kehityskuluista, kuvaus edellytyksistä, joita kestävien liiketoimintamallien yleistyminen vaatii sekä esitys kestävien liiketoimintamallien arvioimiseksi ja kehittämiseksi. Tämä tutkimus on toteutettu osana Tekesin Green Growth – Tie kestävään talouteen ohjelman 2011–2015 käynnissä olevaa DemaNET (Dematerialization and Sustainable Competitiveness through New Models for Industrial Networking) -tutkimusprojektia.

Russia, China, India Foresight for Small and Medium size Enterprises in Uusimaa : Changes forecast in the Russian, Chinese and Indian operating environments from the viewpoint of small and middle-sized enterprises in Uusimaa

The report describes those factors of the future that are related to the growth and needs of Russia, China, and India and that may provide significant internationalisation potential for Uusimaa companies. The report examines the emerging trends and market-entry challenges for each country separately. Additionally, it evaluates the training needs of Uusimaa companies in terms of the current offerings available for education on topics related to Russia, China, and India. The report was created via the Delphi method: experts were interviewed, and both Trendwiki material and the latest literature were used to create a summary of experts’ views, statements, and reasons behind recent developments. This summary of views was sent back to the experts with the objective of reaching consensus synthesising the differing views or, at least, of providing argumentation for the various alternative lines of development. In addition to a number of outside experts and business leaders, all heads of Finpro’s Finland Trade Centers participated in the initial interviews. The summary was commented upon by all Finpro consultants and analysts for Russia, China, and India, with each focusing on his or her own area of expertise. The literature used consisted of reports, listed for each country, and an extensive selection of the most recent newspaper articles. The report was created in January-April 2010. On 22 April 2010 its results were reviewed at the final report presentation in cooperation with the Uusimaa ELY Centre.

State of logistics and transport in the Baltic Sea region in 2025

The world’s pace of change is accelerating and new innovations, inventions and technologies come about every day. Change is unavoidable. It is difficult to keep up and even more difficult to prepare for the future. Even though it is not possible to know exactly what will happen in the future, by studying futures people can better anticipate what might lie ahead. By making decisions and realizing the consequences of their choices today, people and governments are able to actively decide how they will act in the future. Both opportunities and pitfalls lie ahead, which encourages actors to make more farsighted decisions. The Baltic Sea region is an interesting area for futures studies. It comprises 11 nations and more than 100 million inhabitants and entails countries with advanced, high-income economies, like Finland, Germany and Denmark, and developing economies, like Russia, Latvia and Lithuania. The western, eastern, northern and southern parts of the region are separated by the Baltic Sea, which at the same time represents a barrier and a facility for trade and travel between the countries belonging to the region The purpose of this study was to uncover the most probable future of transport and logistics in the Baltic Sea region in 2025 by using the Delphi method. Altogether 109 responses were collected in two separate instances from experts in all the Baltic Sea region countries, 56 of whom were defined as academic respondents and 53 of whom business respondents. Only minor differences in the opinions of academic and business experts were discovered, and the larger differences lie between eastern and western response groups. The Baltic Sea region is a very heterogeneous region and the division is clearest between East and West, which differ in political, economic, social, technological and environmental aspects. The probable future of the Baltic Sea region presented in this study is coherent with previous studies on the same subject. The future of the Baltic Sea region in terms of logistics and transport looks quite bright according to the experts who participated in the study. Trade volumes will grow and the importance of logistics and transport to the competitiveness of the region will increase. Respondents from eastern countries seemed to be more optimistic about the future in general. Most differences between opinions could be explained by the gap in technological and infrastructural development between the East and West. As eastern countries are less-developed in some parts of their economies, it is easier for them to improve the technical condition of infrastructure by merely catching up with the western countries.

PDM system functions and utilizations analysis to improve efficiency of sheet metal product design and manufacturing

This study will concentrate on Product Data Management (PDM) systems, and sheet metal design features and classification. In this thesis, PDM is seen as an individual system which handles all product-related data and information. The meaning of relevant data is to take the manufacturing process further with fewer errors. The features of sheet metals are giving more information and value to the designed models. The possibility of implementing PDM and sheet metal features recognition are the core of this study. Their integration should make the design process faster and manufacturing-friendly products easier to design. The triangulation method is the basis for this research. The sections of this triangle are: scientific literature review, interview using the Delphi method and the author’s experience and observations. The main key findings of this study are: (1) the area of focus in triangle (the triangle of three different point of views: business, information exchange and technical) depends on the person’s background and their role in the company, (2) the classification in the PDM system (and also in the CAD system) should be done using the materials, tools and machines that are in use in the company and (3) the design process has to be more effective because of the increase of industrial production, sheet metal blank production and the designer’s time spent on actual design and (4) because Design For Manufacture (DFM) integration can be done with CAD-programs, DFM integration with the PDM system should also be possible.

The future of branded sportswear store formats in Germany 2030: Four images of the future

A fast changing dynamic business environment is becoming a norm today in different areas, including retailing. The aims of this study are to explore existing store formats of branded sportswear retailing and their characteristics, and to identify the trends which might shape their future. The ultimate goal, however, is to create and analyze images of the future of branded sportswear retailing in Germany 2030 by applying the methods of futures studies. As theoretical background, the cyclical theories of retail evolution have been used. Empirical material is obtained by conducting a Disaggregative Policy Delphi method based study, the aim of which is to obtain well–argued qualitative and quantitative information from experts about store format development in order to create future images based on cluster analysis. Flagship stores, Concept stores, Factory Outlets, Pop-up stores, E-commerce and M-commerce represent the diversity of store formats existing in Germany today. They have different aims, roles, and advantages which retailers try to leverage. However such trends as multichannel integration, technological enhancements, growing popularity of online channels, switching customer behaviors, customization and personalization, and economic turbulence might shape the future of sportswear retailing. Four future images constructed: “Multichannel Integration”, “Smart and Personal”, “Consumer Diversification”, and “Always Online” – describe alternative futures of German branded sportswear store formats in 2030 based on different trends, assumptions, hopes and fears. They also point out uncertainties in retailing such as cannibalization of channels, the growing power and expectations of consumers, the complexity of multichannel synergies, and the switching customer behavior. Constructed future images, thus, provide readers with an opportunity to imagine and explore alternative states of the future of branded sportswear store formats in Germany 2030. They could serve well as a tool to communicate the results to decision–makers, compare them, and to analyze to inspire and direct actions for a better future tomorrow.

Future at risk: A study on the Club of Rome

Sustainability, in its modern meaning, has been discussed for more than forty years. However, many experts believe that humanity is still far from being sustainable. Some experts have argued that humanity should seek survivable development because it is too late for sustainable one, since 1990s. Obviously, some problems prevented humanity from becoming sustainable. This thesis focuses on the agenda of sustainability discussions and seeks for the essential topics missing from it. For this purpose, the research is conducted on 21 out of 33 books endorsed by the Club of Rome. All of these books are titled ‘a report to the Club of Rome’. The Club of Rome is an organization that has been constantly working on the problems of humankind for the past 40 years. This thesis has three main components: first, the messages of the reports to the Club of Rome, second, academics perceptions of the Club, and third, the Club member perceptions of its evolution, messages and missing topics. This thesis investigates the evolution of four aspects in the reports. The first one is the agenda of the reports. The second one is the basic approaches of the Club (i.e., global, long-term and holistic). The third one is the ways that the reports treat free market and growth ideology. The fourth one is the approach of the reports toward components of the global complex system (i.e., society, economy and politics). The outline of the thesis is as follows. First, the original reports are briefly summarized. After this, the academic perceptions are discussed and structured around three concepts (i.e., futures studies, sustainability and degrowth). In the final step, the perceptions of the experts are collected and analysed, using a variation of Delphi method, called ‘in-depth interviews’, and ‘quality content analysis’ method. This thesis is useful for those interested in sustainability, global problems, and the Club of Rome. This thesis concludes that the reports from 1972 up to 1980 were cohesive in discussing topics related to the problems of humankind. The topics of the reports are fragmented after this period. The basic approaches of CoR are visible in all the reports. However, after 1980, those approaches and especially holistic thinking are only visible in the background. Regarding the free market and growth ideology, although all the reports are against them, the early reports were more explicitly expressing their disagreement. A milestone is noticeable around 1980 when such objections went completely to the background. However, recent reports are more similar to those of 1970s both in adopting a holistic approach and in explicitly criticizing free market and growth ideology. Finally, concerning the components of global complex system, the society is excluded and the focus of the reports is on politics, economy and their relation. Concerning the topics missing from the debate, this thesis concludes that no major research has been conducted on the fundamental and underlying reasons of the problems (e.g. beliefs, values and culture). Studying the problems without considering their underlying reasons, obviously, leads to superficial and ineffective solutions. This might be one of the reasons that sustainability discussions have as yet led to no concrete result.

Value of Information Logistics Integration in Digital Business Ecosystem

Digital business ecosystems (DBE) are becoming an increasingly popular concept for modelling and building distributed systems in heterogeneous, decentralized and open environments. Information- and communication technology (ICT) enabled business solutions have created an opportunity for automated business relations and transactions. The deployment of ICT in business-to-business (B2B) integration seeks to improve competitiveness by establishing real-time information and offering better information visibility to business ecosystem actors. The products, components and raw material flows in supply chains are traditionally studied in logistics research. In this study, we expand the research to cover the processes parallel to the service and information flows as information logistics integration. In this thesis, we show how better integration and automation of information flows enhance the speed of processes and, thus, provide cost savings and other benefits for organizations. Investments in DBE are intended to add value through business automation and are key decisions in building up information logistics integration. Business solutions that build on automation are important sources of value in networks that promote and support business relations and transactions. Value is created through improved productivity and effectiveness when new, more efficient collaboration methods are discovered and integrated into DBE. Organizations, business networks and collaborations, even with competitors, form DBE in which information logistics integration has a significant role as a value driver. However, traditional economic and computing theories do not focus on digital business ecosystems as a separate form of organization, and they do not provide conceptual frameworks that can be used to explore digital business ecosystems as value drivers—combined internal management and external coordination mechanisms for information logistics integration are not the current practice of a company’s strategic process. In this thesis, we have developed and tested a framework to explore the digital business ecosystems developed and a coordination model for digital business ecosystem integration; moreover, we have analysed the value of information logistics integration. The research is based on a case study and on mixed methods, in which we use the Delphi method and Internetbased tools for idea generation and development. We conducted many interviews with key experts, which we recoded, transcribed and coded to find success factors. Qualitative analyses were based on a Monte Carlo simulation, which sought cost savings, and Real Option Valuation, which sought an optimal investment program for the ecosystem level. This study provides valuable knowledge regarding information logistics integration by utilizing a suitable business process information model for collaboration. An information model is based on the business process scenarios and on detailed transactions for the mapping and automation of product, service and information flows. The research results illustrate the current cap of understanding information logistics integration in a digital business ecosystem. Based on success factors, we were able to illustrate how specific coordination mechanisms related to network management and orchestration could be designed. We also pointed out the potential of information logistics integration in value creation. With the help of global standardization experts, we utilized the design of the core information model for B2B integration. We built this quantitative analysis by using the Monte Carlo-based simulation model and the Real Option Value model. This research covers relevant new research disciplines, such as information logistics integration and digital business ecosystems, in which the current literature needs to be improved. This research was executed by high-level experts and managers responsible for global business network B2B integration. However, the research was dominated by one industry domain, and therefore a more comprehensive exploration should be undertaken to cover a larger population of business sectors. Based on this research, the new quantitative survey could provide new possibilities to examine information logistics integration in digital business ecosystems. The value activities indicate that further studies should continue, especially with regard to the collaboration issues on integration, focusing on a user-centric approach. We should better understand how real-time information supports customer value creation by imbedding the information into the lifetime value of products and services. The aim of this research was to build competitive advantage through B2B integration to support a real-time economy. For practitioners, this research created several tools and concepts to improve value activities, information logistics integration design and management and orchestration models. Based on the results, the companies were able to better understand the formulation of the digital business ecosystem and the importance of joint efforts in collaboration. However, the challenge of incorporating this new knowledge into strategic processes in a multi-stakeholder environment remains. This challenge has been noted, and new projects have been established in pursuit of a real-time economy.

Paperi- ja selluteollisuus: Kestävän kehityksen rooli alalla ja alan tulevaisuus: Delfoi-tutkimus

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli hahmottaa paperi- ja selluteollisuuden nykytilaa ja tulevaisuutta kirjallisuuden sekä empiirisen tutkimuksen avulla. Tutkimuksen avulla hahmotettiin erityisesti kestävän kehityksen ja CSR:n merkitystä paperi- ja selluteollisuudessa, paperi- ja selluteollisuuden tämänhetkistä tilannetta sekä kilpailuedun lähteitä ja liiketoiminnan mahdollisuuksia alalla tulevaisuudessa. Tutkimuksen tutkimusmenetelmä oli kvalitatiivinen ja tutkimusmenetelmänä käytettiin Delfoi-menetelmää. Tutkimuksen perusteella voidaan todeta, että kestävä kehitys on tärkeä aihe paperi- ja selluteollisuudessa ja sen voidaan olettaa tulevaisuudessa olevan alalla vieläkin merkityksellisempi. Ympäristöllisistä tekijöistä ja näkökulmista on metsäteollisuudessa puhuttu jo vuosikymmenten ajan ja alan kansainvälistyminen sekä alalla viime aikoina tapahtuneet muutokset ovat nostaneet kiinnostusta kestävää kehitystä kohtaan entisestään. Tutkimuksen mukaan paperi- ja selluteollisuuden nykytilanne on tällä hetkellä haastava ja kilpailu alalla on kovaa. Syitä alan haastavaan tilanteeseen ovat alalla viime aikoina tapahtuneet muutokset ja kilpailun kiristyminen. Tulevaisuuden kilpailuedun lähteinä alalla voidaan nähdä muun muassa kestävään kehitykseen liittyvät tekijät, uudet tuotteet sekä materiaalit, markkinarakojen hyödyntäminen sekä kannattavuuden parantaminen. Uusia liiketoiminnan mahdollisuuksia alalla tulevaisuudessa ovat erikoistuotteet, bioenergia, innovaatiot, sivutuotteiden käyttö, kierrätettävät materiaalit, pakkausmateriaalit sekä biotalous.

FUTURES OF FINNISH FOOD SYSTEM BY 2050. The perspective of resilience

Modern food systems face complex global challenges such as climate change, resource scarcities, population growth, concentration and globalization. It is not possible to forecast how all these challenges will affect food systems, but futures research methods provide possibilities to enable better understanding of possible futures and that way increases futures awareness. In this thesis, the two-round online Delphi method was utilized to research experts’ opinions about the present and the future resilience of the Finnish food system up to 2050. The first round questionnaire was constructed based on the resilience indicators developed for agroecosystems. Sub-systems in the study were primary production (main focus), food industry, retail and consumption. Based on the results from the first round, the future images were constructed for primary production and food industry sub-sections. The second round asked experts’ opinion about the future images’ probability and desirability. In addition, panarchy scenarios were constructed by using the adaptive cycle and panarchy frameworks. Furthermore, a new approach to general resilience indicators was developed combining “categories” of the social ecological systems (structure, behaviors and governance) and general resilience parameters (tightness of feedbacks, modularity, diversity, the amount of change a system can withstand, capacity of learning and self- organizing behavior). The results indicate that there are strengths in the Finnish food system for building resilience. According to experts organic farms and larger farms are perceived as socially self-organized, which can promote innovations and new experimentations for adaptation to changing circumstances. In addition, organic farms are currently seen as the most ecologically self-regulated farms. There are also weaknesses in the Finnish food system restricting resilience building. It is important to reach optimal redundancy, in which efficiency and resilience are in balance. In the whole food system, retail sector will probably face the most dramatic changes in the future, especially, when panarchy scenarios and the future images are reflected. The profitability of farms is and will be a critical cornerstone of the overall resilience in primary production. All in all, the food system experts have very positive views concerning the resilience development of the Finnish food system in the future. Sometimes small and local is beautiful, sometimes large and international is more resilient. However, when probabilities and desirability of the future images were questioned, there were significant deviations. It appears that experts do not always believe desirable futures to materialize.

FUTURES OF FINNISH FOOD SYSTEM BY 2050. The perspective of resilience

Modern food systems face complex global challenges such as climate change, resource scarcities, population growth, concentration and globalization. It is not possible to forecast how all these challenges will affect food systems, but futures research methods provide possibilities to enable better understanding of possible futures and that way increases futures awareness. In this thesis, the two-round online Delphi method was utilized to research experts’ opinions about the present and the future resilience of the Finnish food system up to 2050. The first round questionnaire was constructed based on the resilience indicators developed for agroecosystems. Sub-systems in the study were primary production (main focus), food industry, retail and consumption. Based on the results from the first round, the future images were constructed for primary production and food industry sub-sections. The second round asked experts’ opinion about the future images’ probability and desirability. In addition, panarchy scenarios were constructed by using the adaptive cycle and panarchy frameworks. Furthermore, a new approach to general resilience indicators was developed combining “categories” of the social ecological systems (structure, behaviors and governance) and general resilience parameters (tightness of feedbacks, modularity, diversity, the amount of change a system can withstand, capacity of learning and self- organizing behavior). The results indicate that there are strengths in the Finnish food system for building resilience. According to experts organic farms and larger farms are perceived as socially self-organized, which can promote innovations and new experimentations for adaptation to changing circumstances. In addition, organic farms are currently seen as the most ecologically self-regulated farms. There are also weaknesses in the Finnish food system restricting resilience building. It is important to reach optimal redundancy, in which efficiency and resilience are in balance. In the whole food system, retail sector will probably face the most dramatic changes in the future, especially, when panarchy scenarios and the future images are reflected. The profitability of farms is and will be a critical cornerstone of the overall resilience in primary production. All in all, the food system experts have very positive views concerning the resilience development of the Finnish food system in the future. Sometimes small and local is beautiful, sometimes large and international is more resilient. However, when probabilities and desirability of the future images were questioned, there were significant deviations. It appears that experts do not always believe desirable futures to materialize.