Seismic Hazard and Ground Motion Characterization at the Itoiz Dam (Northern Spain).

This paper presents a new hazard-consistent ground motion characterization of the Itoiz dam site, located in Northern Spain. Firstly, we propose a methodology with different approximation levels to the expected ground motion at the dam site. Secondly, we apply this methodology taking into account the particular characteristics of the site and of the dam. Hazard calculations were performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment method using a logic tree, which accounts for different seismic source zonings and different ground-motion attenuation relationships. The study was done in terms of peak ground acceleration and several spectral accelerations of periods coinciding with the fundamental vibration periods of the dam. In order to estimate these ground motions we consider two different dam conditions: when the dam is empty (T = 0.1 s) and when it is filled with water to its maximum capacity (T = 0.22 s). Additionally, seismic hazard analysis is done for two return periods: 975 years, related to the project earthquake, and 4,975 years, identified with an extreme event. Soil conditions were also taken into account at the site of the dam. Through the proposed methodology we deal with different forms of characterizing ground motion at the study site. In a first step, we obtain the uniform hazard response spectra for the two return periods. In a second step, a disaggregation analysis is done in order to obtain the controlling earthquakes that can affect the dam. Subsequently, we characterize the ground motion at the dam site in terms of specific response spectra for target motions defined by the expected values SA (T) of T = 0.1 and 0.22 s for the return periods of 975 and 4,975 years, respectively. Finally, synthetic acceleration time histories for earthquake events matching the controlling parameters are generated using the discrete wave-number method and subsequently analyzed. Because of the short relative distances between the controlling earthquakes and the dam site we considered finite sources in these computations. We conclude that directivity effects should be taken into account as an important variable in this kind of studies for ground motion characteristics.

Environmental and Occupational Optometry. Lesson 5 (Course 2013-2014)

Tema 5. Actividad voluntaria nº 3.

Table 1: Densities of nitrate-dissimilating and nitrite-dissimilating bacteria in surface sediments in the German Bight, North Sea

At 24 stations in the Weser Estuary and the German Bight the Most Probable Numbers (MPN/g dry wt. sediment) of nitrate-dissimilating (= denitrifying) and of nitrate plus nitrite-dissimilating bacteria were recorded. The numbers of nitrite-dissimilating bacteria, i. e. denitrifiers not capable of reducing nitrate to nitrite, were calculated by subtraction of the MPN for nitrate-dissimilating from the MPN of nitrate plus nitrite-dissimilating bacteria. By determining the percentages of these bacteria in relation to the number of the heterotrophs, the ecological importance of denitrification, especially the nitrite dissimilation, was estimated. The results showed the MPN of nitrate-dissimilating bacteria to be in the range of 0-156 (up to 0.8 % of heterotrophic bacteria). An exception was the sediment of one station with a MPN of 1849, or 5.2 % of the heterotrophs. The amounts of nitrite-dissimilating bacteria were between 0 and 2352 (up to 13 % of heterotrophic bacteria). In the estuary the numbers of nitrate-dissimilating and of nitrite-dissimilating bacteria showed a decreasing tendency with distance from Bremerhaven. The highest numbers were found in the Weser off Bremerhaven and also at 3 stations in the German Bight, south of the Isle of Helgoland.

Gait analysis of the hind limb in Labrador Retrievers with and without cranial cruciate ligament disease

Cranial cruciate ligament (CCL) deficiency is the leading cause of lameness affecting the stifle joints of large breed dogs, especially Labrador Retrievers. Although CCL disease has been studied extensively, its exact pathogenesis and the primary cause leading to CCL rupture remain controversial. However, weakening secondary to repetitive microtrauma is currently believed to cause the majority of CCL instabilities diagnosed in dogs. Techniques of gait analysis have become the most productive tools to investigate normal and pathological gait in human and veterinary subjects. The inverse dynamics analysis approach models the limb as a series of connected linkages and integrates morphometric data to yield information about the net joint moment, patterns of muscle power and joint reaction forces. The results of these studies have greatly advanced our understanding of the pathogenesis of joint diseases in humans. A muscular imbalance between the hamstring and quadriceps muscles has been suggested as a cause for anterior cruciate ligament rupture in female athletes. Based on these findings, neuromuscular training programs leading to a relative risk reduction of up to 80% has been designed. In spite of the cost and morbidity associated with CCL disease and its management, very few studies have focused on the inverse dynamics gait analysis of this condition in dogs. The general goals of this research were (1) to further define gait mechanism in Labrador Retrievers with and without CCL-deficiency, (2) to identify individual dogs that are susceptible to CCL disease, and (3) to characterize their gait. The mass, location of the center of mass (COM), and mass moment of inertia of hind limb segments were calculated using a noninvasive method based on computerized tomography of normal and CCL-deficient Labrador Retrievers. Regression models were developed to determine predictive equations to estimate body segment parameters on the basis of simple morphometric measurements, providing a basis for nonterminal studies of inverse dynamics of the hind limbs in Labrador Retrievers. Kinematic, ground reaction forces (GRF) and morphometric data were combined in an inverse dynamics approach to compute hock, stifle and hip net moments, powers and joint reaction forces (JRF) while trotting in normal, CCL-deficient or sound contralateral limbs. Reductions in joint moment, power, and loads observed in CCL-deficient limbs were interpreted as modifications adopted to reduce or avoid painful mobilization of the injured stifle joint. Lameness resulting from CCL disease affected predominantly reaction forces during the braking phase and the extension during push-off. Kinetics also identified a greater joint moment and power of the contralateral limbs compared with normal, particularly of the stifle extensor muscles group, which may correlate with the lameness observed, but also with the predisposition of contralateral limbs to CCL deficiency in dogs. For the first time, surface EMG patterns of major hind limb muscles during trotting gait of healthy Labrador Retrievers were characterized and compared with kinetic and kinematic data of the stifle joint. The use of surface EMG highlighted the co-contraction patterns of the muscles around the stifle joint, which were documented during transition periods between flexion and extension of the joint, but also during the flexion observed in the weight bearing phase. Identification of possible differences in EMG activation characteristics between healthy patients and dogs with or predisposed to orthopedic and neurological disease may help understanding the neuromuscular abnormality and gait mechanics of such disorders in the future. Conformation parameters, obtained from femoral and tibial radiographs, hind limb CT images, and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, of hind limbs predisposed to CCL deficiency were compared with the conformation parameters from hind limbs at low risk. A combination of tibial plateau angle and femoral anteversion angle measured on radiographs was determined optimal for discriminating predisposed and non-predisposed limbs for CCL disease in Labrador Retrievers using a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis method. In the future, the tibial plateau angle (TPA) and femoral anteversion angle (FAA) may be used to screen dogs suspected of being susceptible to CCL disease. Last, kinematics and kinetics across the hock, stifle and hip joints in Labrador Retrievers presumed to be at low risk based on their radiographic TPA and FAA were compared to gait data from dogs presumed to be predisposed to CCL disease for overground and treadmill trotting gait. For overground trials, extensor moment at the hock and energy generated around the hock and stifle joints were increased in predisposed limbs compared to non predisposed limbs. For treadmill trials, dogs qualified as predisposed to CCL disease held their stifle at a greater degree of flexion, extended their hock less, and generated more energy around the stifle joints while trotting on a treadmill compared with dogs at low risk. This characterization of the gait mechanics of Labrador Retrievers at low risk or predisposed to CCL disease may help developing and monitoring preventive exercise programs to decrease gastrocnemius dominance and strengthened the hamstring muscle group.

FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

Optimizing the number of stations in arrays measurements: experimental outcomes for different array geometries and the f-k method

Array measurements have become a valuable tool for site response characterization in a non-invasive way. The array design, i.e. size, geometry and number of stations, has a great influence in the quality of the obtained results. From the previous parameters, the number of available stations uses to be the main limitation for the field experiments, because of the economical and logistical constraints that it involves. Sometimes, from the initially planned array layout, carefully designed before the fieldwork campaign, one or more stations do not work properly, modifying the prearranged geometry. Whereas other times, there is not possible to set up the desired array layout, because of the lack of stations. Therefore, for a planned array layout, the number of operative stations and their arrangement in the array become a crucial point in the acquisition stage and subsequently in the dispersion curve estimation. In this paper we carry out an experimental work to analyze which is the minimum number of stations that would provide reliable dispersion curves for three prearranged array configurations (triangular, circular with central station and polygonal geometries). For the optimization study, we analyze together the theoretical array responses and the experimental dispersion curves obtained through the f-k method. In the case of the f-k method, we compare the dispersion curves obtained for the original or prearranged arrays with the ones obtained for the modified arrays, i.e. the dispersion curves obtained when a certain number of stations n is removed, each time, from the original layout of X geophones. The comparison is evaluated by means of a misfit function, which helps us to determine how constrained are the studied geometries by stations removing and which station or combination of stations affect more to the array capability when they are not available. All this information might be crucial to improve future array designs, determining when it is possible to optimize the number of arranged stations without losing the reliability of the obtained results.

Right adolescent idiopathic thoracic curve (Lenke 1 A and B): does cost of instrumentation and implant density improve radiographic and cosmetic parameters?

In adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) there has been a shift towards increasing the number of implants and pedicle screws, which has not been proven to improve cosmetic correction. To evaluate if increasing cost of instrumentation correlates with cosmetic correction using clinical photographs. 58 Lenke 1A and B cases from a multicenter AIS database with at least 3 months follow-up of clinical photographs were used for analysis. Cosmetic parameters on PA and forward bending photographs included angular measurements of trunk shift, shoulder balance, rib hump, and ratio measurements of waist line asymmetry. Pre-op and follow-up X-rays were measured for coronal and sagittal deformity parameters. Cost density was calculated by dividing the total cost of instrumentation by the number of vertebrae being fused. Linear regression and spearman`s correlation were used to correlate cost density to X-ray and photo outcomes. Three independent observers verified radiographic and cosmetic parameters for inter/interobserver variability analysis. Average pre-op Cobb angle and instrumented correction were 54A degrees (SD 12.5) and 59% (SD 25) respectively. The average number of vertebrae fused was 10 (SD 1.9). The total cost of spinal instrumentation ranged from $6,769 to $21,274 (Mean $12,662, SD $3,858). There was a weak positive and statistically significant correlation between Cobb angle correction and cost density (r = 0.33, p = 0.01), and no correlation between Cobb angle correction of the uninstrumented lumbar spine and cost density (r = 0.15, p = 0.26). There was no significant correlation between all sagittal X-ray measurements or any of the photo parameters and cost density. There was good to excellent inter/intraobserver variability of all photographic parameters based on the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC 0.74-0.98). Our method used to measure cosmesis had good to excellent inter/intraobserver variability, and may be an effective tool to objectively assess cosmesis from photographs. Since increasing cost density only improves mildly the Cobb angle correction of the main thoracic curve and not the correction of the uninstrumented spine or any of the cosmetic parameters, one should consider the cost of increasing implant density in Lenke 1A and B curves. In the area of rationalization of health care expenses, this study demonstrates that increasing the number of implants does not improve any relevant cosmetic or radiographic outcomes.