Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Counter-figures : An Essay on Antimetaphoric Resistance: Paul Celan's Poetry and Poetics at the Limits of Figurality

Titled "An Essay on Antimetaphoric Resistance", the dissertation investigates what is here being called "Counter-figures": a term which has in this context a certain variety of applications. Any other-than-image or other-than-figure, anything that cannot be exhausted by figuration (and that is, more or less, anything at all, except perhaps the reproducible images and figures themselves) can be considered "counter-figurative" with regard to the formation of images and figures, ideas and schemas, "any graven image, or any likeness of any thing". Singularity and radical alterity, as well as temporality and its peculiar mode of uniqueness are key issues here, and an ethical dimension is implied by, or intertwined with, the aesthetic. In terms borrowed from Paul Celan's "Meridian" speech, poetry may "allow the most idiosyncratic quality of the Other, its time, to participate in the dialogue". This connection between singularity, alterity and temporality is one of the reasons why Celan so strongly objects to the application of the traditional concept of metaphor to poetry. As Celan says, "carrying over [übertragen]" by metaphor may imply an unwillingness to "bear with [mittragen]" and to "endure [ertragen]" the poem. The thesis is divided into two main parts. The first consists of five distinct prolegomena which all address the mentioned variety of applications of the term "counter-figures", and especially the rejection or critique of either metaphor (by Aristotle, for instance) or the concept of metaphor (defined by Aristotle, and sometimes deemed "anti-poetic" by both theorists and poets). Even if we restrict ourselves to the traditional rhetorico-poetical terms, we may see how, for instance, metonymy can be a counter-figure for metaphor, allegory for symbol, and irony for any single trope or for any piece of discourse at all. The limits of figurality may indeed be located at these points of intersection between different types of tropes or figures, and even between figures or tropes and the "non-figurative trope" or "pseudo-figure" called catachresis. The second part, following on from the open-ended prolegomena, concentrates on Paul Celan's poetry and poetics. According to Celan, true poetry is "essentially anti-metaphoric". I argue that inasmuch as we are willing to pay attention to the "will" of the poetic images themselves (the tropes and metaphors in a poem) to be "carried ad absurdum", as Celan invites us to do, we may find alternative ways of reading poetry and approaching its "secret of the encounter", precisely when the traditional rhetorical instruments, and especially the notion of metaphor, become inapplicable or suspicious — and even where they still seem to impose themselves.

Three Sides of a Wall : Obstacles and Border States in Paul Auster's Novels

Tutkielmani käsittelee yhdysvaltalaisen kirjailijan Paul Austerin (s. 1947) romaanituotannossa esiintyviä esteitä ja rajatiloja. Erityisesti olen kiinnostunut siitä, miten Auster liittää nämä "marginaalitilat" amerikkalaiseen vapauden ja laajentumisen ideologiaan sekä kieleen ja kirjoittamiseen. Austerin romaaneissa esteiden ja rajatilojen käsittely voidaan jakaa kolmeen vaiheeseen. Ensimmäisessä vaiheessa henkilöt ovat vahvojen esteiden rajoittamia tai rakentavat niitä itse. Rajoittuneisuus ei kuitenkaan aina tunnu häiritsevän heitä - itse asiassa monet päähenkilöistä tuntevat itsensä onnellisiksi tai vähintäänkin tyytyväisiksi joutuessaan esteen takia pysähdyttämään vapaan liikkeensä. Toisessa vaiheessa henkilöt pyrkivät ylittämään tai rikkomaan esteen päästäkseen toiselle puolelle. Kuten amerikkalaiset esi-isänsä aikoinaan, he etsivät rajatonta, laajaa ja tyhjää tilaa - "suurta tuntematonta" valloitettavakseen. Tällaisen tilan kohdatessaan he joutuvat kuitenkin usein epävarmuuden valtaan. Kolmas vaihe on tutkielmani kannalta tärkein: välitila, josta käytän työssäni nimitystä "in-betweenity". Tähän vaiheeseen päästään kulkemalla ensin kahden muun vaiheen kautta. Juuri tietoisuus näistä kahdesta muusta vaiheesta synnyttää tämän kolmannen tilan, eräänlaisen rajatilan, jossa tajutaan sekä esteiden että esteettömyyden tärkeys. Tämä välitila on Austerille tyypillinen tila, joka kertoo paitsi amerikkalaisen unelman paradoksaalisuudesta myös (kaunokirjallisen) kielenkäytön prosessista. Monet Austerin kirjojen muurin rakentajista tai purkajista voidaan nähdä kirjailijahahmoina, joiden omituinen suhde esteisiin ja rajoihin kumpuaa juuri siitä rajatilasta, jonka asukkaita he kielentaiteilijoina väistämättä ovat. Tällaisen tilan/tilattomuuden kuvaaminen tekee Austerista oman postmodernin aikamme tärkeän kirjailijan - kirjailijan, joka sen sijaan, että pyrkisi eroon paradokseista, sijoittaa hahmonsa niiden sisään. Rajoihin ja esteisiin liittyvä problematiikka ei kuitenkaan ole pelkästään nykyajan ongelma vaan kysymys, joka ihmisen toisaalta rajoja kaipaavan toisaalta rajattomuutta kaipaavan luonteen vuoksi säilyy aina ajankohtaisena. Avainsanat: Paul Auster, este, muuri, raja, Yhdysvallat

Paul Blum calling card with photograph Portraits Men

Digital Image

Portrait of Paul Blum Portraits Men

Digital Image

View of Paul I. Landmann manufacturing factory; Mannheim-Neckarau Business Establishments; Factories

"Fabrikansicht"

Printing room 1; Paul I. Landmann Manufacturing Factory; Mannheim-Neckarau Business Establishments; Factories

"Drucksaal 1"

Printing room; Paul I. Landmann Manufacturing Factory; Mannheim-Neckarau Business Establishments; Factories

"Umdruckerei"

Stamping room; Paul I. Landmann manufacturing factory; Mannheim-Neckarau Business Establishments; Factories

"Pragesaal"

Studio and office; Paul I. Landmann manufacturing factory; Mannheim-Neckarau Business Establishments; Factories

"Atelier und Buero"

Paul I. Landmann manufacturing factory; Mannheim-Neckarau Business Establishments; Factories

"Fabrikansicht von der Toreinfahrt"

Factory employee housing; Paul I. Landmann Manufacturing Factory; Mannheim-Neckarau Business Establishments; Factories

"Arbeiter und Mietshaeuser"

Factory employee housing; Paul I. Landmann Manufacturing Factory; Mannheim-Neckarau Business Establishments; Factories

"Arbeiter und Mietshaeuser"