Bayesian networks for information synthesis in complex systems

This thesis introduces a method of applying Bayesian Networks to combine information from a range of data sources for effective decision support systems. It develops a set of techniques in development, validation, visualisation, and application of Complex Systems models, with a working demonstration in an Australian airport environment. The methods presented here have provided a modelling approach that produces highly flexible, informative and applicable interpretations of a system's behaviour under uncertain conditions. These end-to-end techniques are applied to the development of model based dashboards to support operators and decision makers in the multi-stakeholder airport environment. They provide highly flexible and informative interpretations and confidence in these interpretations of a system's behaviour under uncertain conditions.

The use of embodiments in distributed collaborative business process modelling

Remote networked collaboration with business model documentation has many communication problems. The aim of this project is to solve some of these communication problems by using digital 3D representations of human visual cues. Results from this project increased our understanding of the role and effects of visual cues in remote collaboration, specifically for validating business process models. Technology designs to support such cues across a distance have been proposed in this thesis with qualitative and quantitative methods of analysis being combined to analyse the impact of these cues on the communication, coordination and performance of a team collaborating remotely.

Effects of different instructional constraints on task performance and emergence of coordination in children

The objectives of this study were to determine the impact of different instructional constraints on standing board jump (sbj) performance in children and understand the underlying changes in emergent movement patterns. Two groups of novice participants were provided with either externally or internally focused attentional instructions during an intervention phase. Pre- and post-test sessions were undertaken to determine changes to performance and movement patterns. Thirty-six primary fourth-grade male students were recruited for this study and randomly assigned to either an external, internal focus or control group. Different instructional constraints with either an external focus (image of the achievement) or an internal focus (image of the act) were provided to the participants. Performance scores (jump distances), and data from key kinematic (joint range of motion, ROM) and kinetic variables (jump impulses) were collected. Instructional constraints with an emphasis on an external focus of attention were generally more effective in assisting learners to improve jump distances. Intra-individual analyses highlighted how enhanced jump distances for successful participants may be concomitant with specific changes to kinematic and kinetic variables. Larger joint ROM and adjustment to a comparatively larger horizontal impulse to a vertical impulse were observed for more successful participants at post-test performance. From a constraints-led perspective, the inclusion of instructional constraints encouraging self-adjustments in the control of movements (i.e., image of achievement) had a beneficial effect on individuals performing the standing broad jump task. However, the advantage of using an external focus of attentional instructions could be task- and individual-specific.

Systems between information and knowledge : In a memory management model of an extended enterprise

The research question of this thesis was how knowledge can be managed with information systems. Information systems can support but not replace knowledge management. Systems can mainly store epistemic organisational knowledge included in content, and process data and information. Certain value can be achieved by adding communication technology to systems. All communication, however, can not be managed. A new layer between communication and manageable information was named as knowformation. Knowledge management literature was surveyed, together with information species from philosophy, physics, communication theory, and information system science. Positivism, post-positivism, and critical theory were studied, but knowformation in extended organisational memory seemed to be socially constructed. A memory management model of an extended enterprise (M3.exe) and knowformation concept were findings from iterative case studies, covering data, information and knowledge management systems. The cases varied from groups towards extended organisation. Systems were investigated, and administrators, users (knowledge workers) and managers interviewed. The model building required alternative sets of data, information and knowledge, instead of using the traditional pyramid. Also the explicit-tacit dichotomy was reconsidered. As human knowledge is the final aim of all data and information in the systems, the distinction between management of information vs. management of people was harmonised. Information systems were classified as the core of organisational memory. The content of the systems is in practice between communication and presentation. Firstly, the epistemic criterion of knowledge is not required neither in the knowledge management literature, nor from the content of the systems. Secondly, systems deal mostly with containers, and the knowledge management literature with applied knowledge. Also the construction of reality based on the system content and communication supports the knowformation concept. Knowformation belongs to memory management model of an extended enterprise (M3.exe) that is divided into horizontal and vertical key dimensions. Vertically, processes deal with content that can be managed, whereas communication can be supported, mainly by infrastructure. Horizontally, the right hand side of the model contains systems, and the left hand side content, which should be independent from each other. A strategy based on the model was defined.

Physical resource coordination in manufacturing systems

This paper focuses on the physical resource coordination problem for reconfigurable manufacturing systems. It establishes requirements for physical resource coordination to support highly reconfigurable manufacturing systems, and uses two illustrative examples to illustrate critical issues that must be considered. Finally, an approach to part of the physical resource coordination mechanism for reconfigurable systems is presented. Copyright © 2006 IFAC.

Success or failure in knowledge management systems: a universal issue

This paper takes a sociotechnical viewpoint of knowledge management system (KMS) implementation in organizations considering issues such as stakeholder disenfranchisement, lack of communication, and the low involvement of key personnel in system design asking whether KMS designers could learn from applying sociotechnical principles to their systems. The paper discusses design elements drawn from the sociotechnical principles essential for the success of IS and makes recommendations to increase the success of KMS in organizations. It also provides guidelines derived from Clegg’s Principles (2000) for KMS designers to enhance their designs. Our data comes from the application of a plurality of analysis methods on a large comprehensive global survey conducted from 2007 to 2011 of 1034 participants from 76 countries. The survey covers a variety of organizations of all types and sizes from a comprehensive selection of economic sectors and industries. Our results showed that users were not satisfied with the information and knowledge systems that they were being offered. In addition to multiple technology and usability issues, there were human and organisational barriers that prevented the systems from being used to their full potential. We recommend that users of KMS are integrated into the design team so that these usability and other barriers can be addressed during the feasibility stage as well as the actual design and implementation phases.

Information sources selection methodology for recommender systems based on intrinsic characteristics and trust measure

El treball desenvolupat en aquesta tesi presenta un profund estudi i proveïx solucions innovadores en el camp dels sistemes recomanadors. Els mètodes que usen aquests sistemes per a realitzar les recomanacions, mètodes com el Filtrat Basat en Continguts (FBC), el Filtrat Col·laboratiu (FC) i el Filtrat Basat en Coneixement (FBC), requereixen informació dels usuaris per a predir les preferències per certs productes. Aquesta informació pot ser demogràfica (Gènere, edat, adreça, etc), o avaluacions donades sobre algun producte que van comprar en el passat o informació sobre els seus interessos. Existeixen dues formes d'obtenir aquesta informació: els usuaris ofereixen explícitament aquesta informació o el sistema pot adquirir la informació implícita disponible en les transaccions o historial de recerca dels usuaris. Per exemple, el sistema recomanador de pel·lícules MovieLens (http://movielens.umn.edu/login) demana als usuaris que avaluïn almenys 15 pel·lícules dintre d'una escala de * a * * * * * (horrible, ...., ha de ser vista). El sistema genera recomanacions sobre la base d'aquestes avaluacions. Quan els usuaris no estan registrat en el sistema i aquest no té informació d'ells, alguns sistemes realitzen les recomanacions tenint en compte l'historial de navegació. Amazon.com (http://www.amazon.com) realitza les recomanacions tenint en compte les recerques que un usuari a fet o recomana el producte més venut. No obstant això, aquests sistemes pateixen de certa falta d'informació. Aquest problema és generalment resolt amb l'adquisició d'informació addicional, se li pregunta als usuaris sobre els seus interessos o es cerca aquesta informació en fonts addicionals. La solució proposada en aquesta tesi és buscar aquesta informació en diverses fonts, específicament aquelles que contenen informació implícita sobre les preferències dels usuaris. Aquestes fonts poden ser estructurades com les bases de dades amb informació de compres o poden ser no estructurades com les pàgines web on els usuaris deixen la seva opinió sobre algun producte que van comprar o posseïxen. Nosaltres trobem tres problemes fonamentals per a aconseguir aquest objectiu: 1 . La identificació de fonts amb informació idònia per als sistemes recomanadors. 2 . La definició de criteris que permetin la comparança i selecció de les fonts més idònies. 3 . La recuperació d'informació de fonts no estructurades. En aquest sentit, en la tesi proposada s'ha desenvolupat: 1 . Una metodologia que permet la identificació i selecció de les fonts més idònies. Criteris basats en les característiques de les fonts i una mesura de confiança han estat utilitzats per a resoldre el problema de la identificació i selecció de les fonts. 2 . Un mecanisme per a recuperar la informació no estructurada dels usuaris disponible en la web. Tècniques de Text Mining i ontologies s'han utilitzat per a extreure informació i estructurar-la apropiadament perquè la utilitzin els recomanadors. Les contribucions del treball desenvolupat en aquesta tesi doctoral són: 1. Definició d'un conjunt de característiques per a classificar fonts rellevants per als sistemes recomanadors 2. Desenvolupament d'una mesura de rellevància de les fonts calculada sobre la base de les característiques definides 3. Aplicació d'una mesura de confiança per a obtenir les fonts més fiables. La confiança es definida des de la perspectiva de millora de la recomanació, una font fiable és aquella que permet millorar les recomanacions. 4. Desenvolupament d'un algorisme per a seleccionar, des d'un conjunt de fonts possibles, les més rellevants i fiable utilitzant les mitjanes esmentades en els punts previs. 5. Definició d'una ontologia per a estructurar la informació sobre les preferències dels usuaris que estan disponibles en Internet. 6. Creació d'un procés de mapatge que extreu automàticament informació de les preferències dels usuaris disponibles en la web i posa aquesta informació dintre de l'ontologia. Aquestes contribucions permeten aconseguir dos objectius importants: 1 . Millorament de les recomanacions usant fonts d'informació alternatives que sigui rellevants i fiables. 2 . Obtenir informació implícita dels usuaris disponible en Internet.

Estágio no escalão de iniciados (sub-15) no clube atlético e cultural 2010-2011

RESUMO: O Clube Atlético e Cultural (C.A.C.), apesar de ser relativamente recente, é reconhecido como um Clube Desportivo de formação de atletas de referência na zona de Lisboa. O seu pico de reconhecimento e a sua maior “montra” de formação é sem dúvida o Torneio Internacional da Pontinha (escalão Sub-13), onde é palco de jogos durante 4 dias entre os maiores clubes nacionais, bem como, alguns clubes mundialmente conhecidos. Como prova desse facto, se analisarmos alguns jogadores de elite profissional, têm no seu percurso de formação o C.A.C. como instituição representada. O relatório que de seguida se apresenta, surge no âmbito do estágio de Mestrado em Treino Desportivo e pretende divulgar todas as decisões, acções e reflexões subjacentes ao Treino Desportivo de jovens jogadores. O contexto onde foi realizado foi na equipa de Iniciados “A” (Sub-15), que disputou o Campeonato da Divisão de Honra da Associação Futebol de Lisboa. O relatório encontra-se estruturado do geral para o particular, estando dividido em três tipos de planificação: (1) Planificação Conceptual – na qual abrange uma análise ao Clube em questão, o seu contexto, os seus recursos e os vários constrangimentos. Compreende ainda um estudo prévio de situações anteriores, leia-se, épocas anteriores, bem como, a formação da equipa e dos seus jogadores, em função dos objectivos traçados e assumidos no inicio da época desportiva. Integra também a preparação de todo o período Pré-Competitivo e o recurso a meios de observação e análise visando a melhoria de todo o processo de planeamento do treino. (2) Planificação Estratégica – Esta prevê todas as acções que dizem respeito ao Período Competitivo da equipa, como por exemplo a recolha de dados tanto da nossa equipa como dos adversários, a antecipação dos graus de dificuldade dos nossos adversários, o planeamento mais operacional (Microciclos) e a escolha de estratégias consoante os diferentes adversários e por fim, as reflexões necessárias entre os vários intervenientes no processo. (3) Planificação Táctica – Por fim este tipo de planificação abarca todas as acções, decisões e reacções nos momentos que antecedem o jogo, no momento em que este decorre e ainda após este terminar. Em suma, o relatório pretende expor toda a preparação de uma equipa ao longo de uma época desportiva, visto de uma perspectiva das funções de um treinador principal. ABSTRACT: The Clube Atlético e Cultural (C.A.C.), although relatively recent, is recognized as a reference club in youths training in the Lisbon area. The peak recognition and more “showcase” training ins undoubtedly the Torneio Internacional da Pontinha (Under-13), which is host to games during four days among the biggest national clubs, as well as some world-renowned clubs. As proof thereof, if we look at some elite professional players, have in their educational path C.A.C. represented as an institution. The report that presents itself, appears in the stage of Master of Sports Training and intends to disclose all the decisions, actions and thoughts behind the Sports Training of young players. The report is structured from general to particular, being divided into three types of planning: (1) Conceptual Planning - which includes an analysis on the club in question, its context, its resources and various constraints. It also includes a previous study of past situations like earlier seasons, as well as the formation of the team and its players, according to the objectives and commitments outlined in the beginning of the season. Also includes the preparation of all pre-competition period and the use of means of observation and analysis aimed at improving the entire process of planning the training. (2) Strategic Planning - This provides all the activities that concern the competitive period of the team, such as collecting information both from our team as well as opponents, anticipating the degree of difficulty of our adversaries, the more operational planning (microcycles) and the choice of strategies depending on different opponents and finally the necessary reflections between the various actors in the process. (3) Tactical Planning - Finally this type of planning includes all actions, decisions and reactions in the moments before, during and even after the game. To resume, the report seeks to expose all the preparation of the team throughout a sports season, by the perspective of the functions of a head coach.

Older people playing ball : what is the risk of falling and injury?

Increasing physical activity amongst seniors is important for public health, yet guidance is needed to minimise injury risks. To describe the incidence of falls/injuries in a walking team ball game (Lifeball) designed for seniors, a prospective cohort study was undertaken amongst community dwelling Lifeball participants in Australia. Players completed a telephone survey soon after commencing Lifeball (2004) and 12 months later (2005). Attendance and incident records were audited for the period. Subjects joined a Lifeball group with opportunity to play at least once per week. Baseline was completed by 284 players aged between 40 and 96 years (mean 67 years), with most (83.8%, 238/284) female. Of 263 followed up, the average attendances was 25, with 19.3% attending on fewer than 4 occasions and 14.3% attending 52 or more times. Most (93.9%) reported no injuries requiring medical attention. However, 16 (6.1%) had injuries requiring medical attention and their 27 injuries represent an injury rate of 3.3 per 1000 hours of participation. Twenty participants (7.6%) had a Lifeball fall equating to a fall rate of 2.8 per 1000 hours of participation. Falls in Lifeball were not associated with measured predictors (age, gender, falls history, perceived falls risk or hours played). Incident records showed a trip/stumble involving rushing, walking backwards, or overextending (all against rules) as common falling causes. Lifeball is not ‘risk free’ however due to a lack of comparative data it is difficult to compare injury rate to relevant activities. Prevention of injury should concentrate on enforcing safety rules.

Optimal communication amongst team members

We present a formal framework based on the theory of game with incomplete information [5] for modelling the coordination and communication problem among team of collaborative agents, and define what it means by optimal communication in this setting. Although computing an optimal communication strategy for the team is hard in general, we illustrate with an example of collaborative negotiation and meeting scheduling that computation can be substantially reduced when domain dependent assumptions are introduced.

Development of national statistical systems and the responsibilities of national statistical offices

Includes bibliography

Efficient team actions: Outline of a theory of teams in sport

So far, social psychology in sport has preliminary focused on team cohesion, and many studies and meta analyses tried to demonstrate a relation between cohesiveness of a team and it's performance. How a team really co-operates and how the individual actions are integrated towards a team action is a question that has received relatively little attention in research. This may, at least in part, be due to a lack of a theoretical framework for collective actions, a dearth that has only recently begun to challenge sport psychologists. In this presentation a framework for a comprehensive theory of teams in sport is outlined and its potential to integrate the following presentations is put up for discussion. Based on a model developed by von Cranach, Ochsenbein and Valach (1986), teams are information processing organisms, and team actions need to be investigated on two levels: the individual team member and the group as an entity. Elements to be considered are the task, the social structure, the information processing structure and the execution structure. Obviously, different task require different social structures, communication and co-ordination. From a cognitivist point of view, internal representations (or mental models) guide the behaviour mainly in situations requiring quick reactions and adaptations, were deliberate or contingency planning are difficult. In sport teams, the collective representation contains the elements of the team situation, that is team task and team members, and of the team processes, that is communication and co-operation. Different meta-perspectives may be distinguished and bear a potential to explain the actions of efficient teams. Cranach, M. von, Ochsenbein, G., & Valach, L. (1986).The group as a self-active system: Outline of a theory of group action. European Journal of Social Psychology, 16, 193-229.

Bimanual coordination: constraints imposed by the relative timing of homologous muscle activation

It has often been supposed that patterns of rhythmic bimanual coordination in which homologous muscles are engaged simultaneously, are performed in a more stable manner than those in which the same muscles are activated in an alternating fashion. In order to assess the efficacy of this constraint, the present study investigated the effect of forearm posture (prone or supine) on bimanual abduction-adduction movements of the wrist in isodirectional and non-isodirectional modes of coordination. Irrespective of forearm posture, non-isodirectional coordination was observed to be more stable than isodirectional coordination. In the latter condition, there was a more severe deterioration of coordination accuracy/stability as a function of cycling frequency than in the former condition. With elevations in cycling frequency, the performers recruited extra mechanical degrees of freedom, principally via flexion-extension of the wrist, which gave rise to increasing motion in the vertical plane. The increases in movement amplitude in the vertical plane were accompanied by decreasing amplitude in the horizontal plane. In agreement with previous studies, the present findings confirm that the relative timing of homologous muscle activation acts as a principal constraint upon the stability of interlimb coordination. Furthermore, it is argued that the use of manipulations of limb posture to investigate the role of other classes of constraint (e.g. perceptual) should be approached with caution because such manipulations affect the mapping between muscle activation patterns, movement dynamics and kinematics.

Optimal Reporting Systems With Investor Information Acquisition

This paper analyzes a manager's optimal ex-ante reporting system using a Bayesian persuasion approach (Kamenica and Gentzkow (2011)) in a setting where investors affect cash flows through their decision to finance the firm's investment opportunities, possibly assisted by the costly acquisition of additional information (inspection). I examine how the informativeness and the bias of the optimal system are determined by investors' inspection cost, the degree of incentive alignment between the manager and the investor, and the prior belief that the project is profitable. I find that a mis-aligned manager's system is informative

only when the market prior is pessimistic and is always positively biased; this bias decreases as investors' inspection cost decreases. In contrast, a well-aligned manager's system is fully revealing when investors' inspection cost is high, and is counter-cyclical to the market belief when the inspection cost is low: It is positively (negatively) biased when the market belief is pessimistic (optimistic). Furthermore, I explore the extent to which the results generalize to a case with managerial manipulation and discuss the implications for investment efficiency. Overall, the analysis describes the complex interactions among determinants of firm disclosures and governance, and offers explanations for the mixed empirical results in this area.