Analysis and optimization of trajectories for Ballistic Missiles Interception

Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles are capable of placing a nuclear warhead at more than 5,000 km away from its launching base. With the lethal power of a nuclear warhead a whole city could be wiped out by a single weapon causing millions of deaths. This means that the threat posed to any country from a single ICBM captured by a terrorist group or launched by a 'rogue' state is huge. This threat is increasing as more countries are achieving nuclear and advanced launcher capabilities. In order to suppress or at least reduce this threat the United States created the National Missile Defense System which involved, among other systems, the development of long-range interceptors whose aim is to destroy incoming ballistic missiles in their midcourse phase. The Ballistic Missile Defense is a high-profile topic that has been the focus of political controversy lately when the U.S. decided to expand the Ballistic Missile system to Europe, with the opposition of Russia. However the technical characteristics of this system are mostly unknown by the general public. The Interception of an ICBM using a long range Interceptor Missile as intended within the Ground-Based Missile Defense System by the American National Missile Defense (NMD) implies a series of problems of incredible complexity: - The incoming missile has to be detected almost immediately after launch. - The incoming missile has to be tracked along its trajectory with a great accuracy. - The Interceptor Missile has to implement a fast and accurate guidance algorithm in order to reach the incoming missile as soon as possible. - The Kinetic Kill Vehicle deployed by the interceptor boost vehicle has to be able to detect the reentry vehicle once it has been deployed by ICBM, when it offers a very low infrared signature, in order to perform a final rendezvous manoeuvre. - The Kinetic Kill Vehicle has to be able to discriminate the reentry vehicle from the surrounding debris and decoys. - The Kinetic Kill Vehicle has to be able to implement an accurate guidance algorithm in order to perform a kinetic interception (direct collision) of the reentry vehicle, at relative speeds of more than 10 km/s. All these problems are being dealt simultaneously by the Ground-Based Missile Defense System that is developing very complex and expensive sensors, communications and control centers and long-range interceptors (Ground-Based Interceptor Missile) including a Kinetic Kill Vehicle. Among all the technical challenges involved in this interception scenario, this thesis focuses on the algorithms required for the guidance of the Interceptor Missile and the Kinetic Kill Vehicle in order to perform the direct collision with the ICBM. The involved guidance algorithms are deeply analysed in this thesis in part III where conventional guidance strategies are reviewed and optimal guidance algorithms are developed for this interception problem. The generation of a realistic simulation of the interception scenario between an ICBM and a Ground Based Interceptor designed to destroy it was considered as necessary in order to be able to compare different guidance strategies with meaningful results. As a consequence, a highly representative simulator for an ICBM and a Kill Vehicle has been implemented, as detailed in part II, and the generation of these simulators has also become one of the purposes of this thesis. In summary, the main purposes of this thesis are: - To develop a highly representative simulator of an interception scenario between an ICBM and a Kill Vehicle launched from a Ground Based Interceptor. -To analyse the main existing guidance algorithms both for the ascent phase and the terminal phase of the missiles. Novel conclusions of these analyses are obtained. - To develop original optimal guidance algorithms for the interception problem. - To compare the results obtained using the different guidance strategies, assess the behaviour of the optimal guidance algorithms, and analyse the feasibility of the Ballistic Missile Defense system in terms of guidance (part IV). As a secondary objective, a general overview of the state of the art in terms of ballistic missiles and anti-ballistic missile defence is provided (part I).

Hybrid wind-diesel power plant valuation and optimization using real option theory and dynamic programming

El sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido tiene un gran potencial en la prestación de suministro de energía a comunidades remotas. En comparación con los sistemas tradicionales de diesel, las plantas de energía híbridas ofrecen grandes ventajas tales como el suministro de capacidad de energía extra para "microgrids", reducción de los contaminantes y emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, y la cobertura del riesgo de aumento inesperado del precio del combustible. El principal objetivo de la presente tesis es proporcionar nuevos conocimientos para la evaluación y optimización de los sistemas de energía híbrido eólico-diesel considerando las incertidumbres. Dado que la energía eólica es una variable estocástica, ésta no puede ser controlada ni predecirse con exactitud. La naturaleza incierta del viento como fuente de energía produce serios problemas tanto para la operación como para la evaluación del valor del sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido. Por un lado, la regulación de la potencia inyectada desde las turbinas de viento es una difícil tarea cuando opera el sistema híbrido. Por otro lado, el bene.cio económico de un sistema eólico-diesel híbrido se logra directamente a través de la energía entregada a la red de alimentación de la energía eólica. Consecuentemente, la incertidumbre de los recursos eólicos incrementa la dificultad de estimar los beneficios globales en la etapa de planificación. La principal preocupación del modelo tradicional determinista es no tener en cuenta la incertidumbre futura a la hora de tomar la decisión de operación. Con lo cual, no se prevé las acciones operativas flexibles en respuesta a los escenarios futuros. El análisis del rendimiento y simulación por ordenador en el Proyecto Eólico San Cristóbal demuestra que la incertidumbre sobre la energía eólica, las estrategias de control, almacenamiento de energía, y la curva de potencia de aerogeneradores tienen un impacto significativo sobre el rendimiento del sistema. En la presente tesis, se analiza la relación entre la teoría de valoración de opciones y el proceso de toma de decisiones. La opción real se desarrolla con un modelo y se presenta a través de ejemplos prácticos para evaluar el valor de los sistemas de energía eólica-diesel híbridos. Los resultados muestran que las opciones operacionales pueden aportar un valor adicional para el sistema de energía híbrida, cuando esta flexibilidad operativa se utiliza correctamente. Este marco se puede aplicar en la optimización de la operación a corto plazo teniendo en cuenta la naturaleza dependiente de la trayectoria de la política óptima de despacho, dadas las plausibles futuras realizaciones de la producción de energía eólica. En comparación con los métodos de valoración y optimización existentes, el resultado del caso de estudio numérico muestra que la política de operación resultante del modelo de optimización propuesto presenta una notable actuación en la reducción del con- sumo total de combustible del sistema eólico-diesel. Con el .n de tomar decisiones óptimas, los operadores de plantas de energía y los gestores de éstas no deben centrarse sólo en el resultado directo de cada acción operativa, tampoco deberían tomar decisiones deterministas. La forma correcta es gestionar dinámicamente el sistema de energía teniendo en cuenta el valor futuro condicionado en cada opción frente a la incertidumbre. ABSTRACT Hybrid wind-diesel power systems have a great potential in providing energy supply to remote communities. Compared with the traditional diesel systems, hybrid power plants are providing many advantages such as providing extra energy capacity to the micro-grid, reducing pollution and greenhouse-gas emissions, and hedging the risk of unexpected fuel price increases. This dissertation aims at providing novel insights for assessing and optimizing hybrid wind-diesel power systems considering the related uncertainties. Since wind power can neither be controlled nor accurately predicted, the energy harvested from a wind turbine may be considered a stochastic variable. This uncertain nature of wind energy source results in serious problems for both the operation and value assessment of the hybrid wind-diesel power system. On the one hand, regulating the uncertain power injected from wind turbines is a difficult task when operating the hybrid system. On the other hand, the economic profit of a hybrid wind-diesel system is achieved directly through the energy delivered to the power grid from the wind energy. Therefore, the uncertainty of wind resources has increased the difficulty in estimating the total benefits in the planning stage. The main concern of the traditional deterministic model is that it does not consider the future uncertainty when making the dispatch decision. Thus, it does not provide flexible operational actions in response to the uncertain future scenarios. Performance analysis and computer simulation on the San Cristobal Wind Project demonstrate that the wind power uncertainty, control strategies, energy storage, and the wind turbine power curve have a significant impact on the performance of the system. In this dissertation, the relationship between option pricing theory and decision making process is discussed. A real option model is developed and presented through practical examples for assessing the value of hybrid wind-diesel power systems. Results show that operational options can provide additional value to the hybrid power system when this operational flexibility is correctly utilized. This framework can be applied in optimizing short term dispatch decisions considering the path-dependent nature of the optimal dispatch policy, given the plausible future realizations of the wind power production. Comparing with the existing valuation and optimization methods, result from numerical example shows that the dispatch policy resulting from the proposed optimization model exhibits a remarkable performance in minimizing the total fuel consumption of the wind-diesel system. In order to make optimal decisions, power plant operators and managers should not just focus on the direct outcome of each operational action; neither should they make deterministic decisions. The correct way is to dynamically manage the power system by taking into consideration the conditional future value in each option in response to the uncertainty.

The choice of the model in inventory control and the cost of sophistication

This thesis is concerned with the inventory control of items that can be considered independent of one another. The decisions when to order and in what quantity, are the controllable or independent variables in cost expressions which are minimised. The four systems considered are referred to as (Q, R), (nQ,R,T), (M,T) and (M,R,T). Wiith ((Q,R) a fixed quantity Q is ordered each time the order cover (i.e. stock in hand plus on order ) equals or falls below R, the re-order level. With the other three systems reviews are made only at intervals of T. With (nQ,R,T) an order for nQ is placed if on review the inventory cover is less than or equal to R, where n, which is an integer, is chosen at the time so that the new order cover just exceeds R. In (M, T) each order increases the order cover to M. Fnally in (M, R, T) when on review, order cover does not exceed R, enough is ordered to increase it to M. The (Q, R) system is examined at several levels of complexity, so that the theoretical savings in inventory costs obtained with more exact models could be compared with the increases in computational costs. Since the exact model was preferable for the (Q,R) system only exact models were derived for theoretical systems for the other three. Several methods of optimization were tried, but most were found inappropriate for the exact models because of non-convergence. However one method did work for each of the exact models. Demand is considered continuous, and with one exception, the distribution assumed is the normal distribution truncated so that demand is never less than zero. Shortages are assumed to result in backorders, not lost sales. However, the shortage cost is a function of three items, one of which, the backorder cost, may be either a linear, quadratic or an exponential function of the length of time of a backorder, with or without period of grace. Lead times are assumed constant or gamma distributed. Lastly, the actual supply quantity is allowed to be distributed. All the sets of equations were programmed for a KDF 9 computer and the computed performances of the four inventory control procedures are compared under each assurnption.

Applied Aspects of Mathematical Modeling and Optimization of Dynamics of Charged Beams

The complex of questions connected with the analysis, estimation and structural-parametrical optimization of dynamic system is considered in this article. Connection of such problems with tasks of control by beams of trajectories is emphasized. The special attention is concentrated on the review and analysis of spent scientific researches, the attention is stressed to their constructability and applied directedness. Efficiency of the developed algorithmic and software is demonstrated on the tasks of modeling and optimization of output beam characteristics in linear resonance accelerators.

A dynamic feature information model for integrated manufacturing planning and optimization

This paper presents a new, dynamic feature representation method for high value parts consisting of complex and intersecting features. The method first extracts features from the CAD model of a complex part. Then the dynamic status of each feature is established between various operations to be carried out during the whole manufacturing process. Each manufacturing and verification operation can be planned and optimized using the real conditions of a feature, thus enhancing accuracy, traceability and process control. The dynamic feature representation is complementary to the design models used as underlining basis in current CAD/CAM and decision support systems. © 2012 CIRP.

Simultaneous material and structural optimization by multiscale topology optimization

Acknowledgments The authors acknowledge the support from Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, grant number EP/M002322/1. The authors would also like to thank Numerical Analysis Group at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory for their FORTRAN HSL packages (HSL, a collection of Fortran codes for large-scale scientific computation. See http://www.hsl.rl.ac.uk/).

Optimal allocation and sizing of capacitors to minimize the transmission line loss and to improve the voltage profile

To allocate and size capacitors in a distribution system, an optimization algorithm, called Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization (DPSO), is employed in this paper. The objective is to minimize the transmission line loss cost plus capacitors cost. During the optimization procedure, the bus voltage, the feeder current and the reactive power flowing back to the source side should be maintained within standard levels. To validate the proposed method, the semi-urban distribution system that is connected to bus 2 of the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) is used. This 37-bus distribution system has 22 loads being located in the secondary side of a distribution substation (33/11 kV). Reducing the transmission line loss in a standard system, in which the transmission line loss consists of only about 6.6 percent of total power, the capabilities of the proposed technique are seen to be validated.

Control and protection of a microgrid with converter interfaced micro sources

This paper describes protection and control of a microgrid with converter interfaced micro sources. The proposed protection and control scheme consider both grid connected and autonomous operation of the microgrid. A protection scheme, capable of detecting faults effectively in both grid connected and islanded operations is proposed. The main challenge of the protection, due to current limiting state of the converters is overcome by using admittance relays. The relays operate according to the inverse time characteristic based on measured admittance of the line. The proposed scheme isolates the fault from both sides, while downstream side of the microgrid operates in islanding condition. Moreover faults can be detected in autonomous operation. In grid connected mode distributed generators (DG) supply the rated power while in absence of the grid, DGs share the entire power requirement proportional to rating based on output voltage angle droop control. The protection scheme ensures minimum load shedding with isolating the faulted network and DG control provides a smooth islanding and resynchronization operation. The efficacy of coordinated control and protection scheme has been validated through simulation for various operating conditions.

Associations among body size dissatisfaction, perceived dietary control, and diet history in African American and European American women

European American (EA) women report greater body dissatisfaction and less dietary control than do African American (AA) women. This study investigated whether ethnic differences in dieting history contributed to differences in body dissatisfaction and dietary control, or to differential changes that may occur during weight loss and regain. Eighty-nine EA and AA women underwent dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry to measure body composition and completed questionnaires to assess body dissatisfaction and dietary control before, after, and one year following, a controlled weight-loss intervention. While EA women reported a more extensive dieting history than AA women, this difference did not contribute to ethnic differences in body dissatisfaction and perceived dietary control. During weight loss, body satisfaction improved more for AA women, and during weight regain, dietary self-efficacy worsened to a greater degree for EA women. Ethnic differences in dieting history did not contribute significantly to these differential changes. Although ethnic differences in body image and dietary control are evident prior to weight loss, and some change differentially by ethnic group during weight loss and regain, differences in dieting history do not contribute significantly to ethnic differences in body image and dietary control.

Selection and optimization of piezoelectric polyvinylidene fluoride polymers for adaptive optics in space environments

Various piezoelectric polymers based on polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) are of interest for large aperture space-based telescopes. Dimensional adjustments of adaptive polymer films depend on charge deposition and require a detailed understanding of the piezoelectric material responses which are expected to deteriorate owing to strong vacuum UV, � -, X-ray, energetic particles and atomic oxygen exposure. We have investigated the degradation of PVDF and its copolymers under various stress environments detrimental to reliable operation in space. Initial radiation aging studies have shown complex material changes with lowered Curie temperatures, complex material changes with lowered melting points, morphological transformations and significant crosslinking, but little influence on piezoelectric d33 constants. Complex aging processes have also been observed in accelerated temperature environments inducing annealing phenomena and cyclic stresses. The results suggest that poling and chain orientation are negatively affected by radiation and temperature exposure. A framework for dealing with these complex material qualification issues and overall system survivability predictions in low earth orbit conditions has been established. It allows for improved material selection, feedback for manufacturing and processing, material optimization/stabilization strategies and provides guidance on any alternative materials.

Liking vs. wanting food : importance for human appetite control and weight regulation

Current train of thought in appetite research is favouring an interest in non-homeostatic or hedonic (reward) mechanisms in relation to overconsumption and energy balance. This tendency is supported by advances in neurobiology that precede the emergence of a new conceptual approach to reward where affect and motivation (liking and wanting) can be seen as the major force in guiding human eating behaviour. In this review, current progress in applying processes of liking and wanting to the study of human appetite are examined by discussing the following issues: How can these concepts be operationalised for use in human research to reflect the neural mechanisms by which they may be influenced? Do liking and wanting operate independently to produce functionally significant changes in behaviour? Can liking and wanting be truly experimentally separated or will an expression of one inevitably contain elements of the other? The review contains a re-examination of selected human appetite research before exploring more recent methodological approaches to the study of liking and wanting in appetite control. In addition, some theoretical developments are described in four diverse models that may enhance current understanding of the role of these processes in guiding ingestive behaviour. Finally, the implications of a dual process modulation of food reward for weight gain and obesity are discussed. The review concludes that processes of liking and wanting are likely to have independent roles in characterising susceptibility to weight gain. Further research into the dissociation of liking and wanting through implicit and explicit levels of processing would help to disclose the relative importance of these components of reward for appetite control and weight regulation.

Poster : Understanding interactions between autonomous animal control and temperament when cattle are subjected to virtual fencing applications

Virtual fencing has the potential to control grazing livestock. Understanding and refi ning the cues that can alter behaviour is an integral part of autonomous animal control. A series of tests have been completed to explore the relationship between temperament and control. Prior to exposure to virtual fencing control the animals were scored for temperament using fl ight speed and a sociability index using contact logging devices. The behavioural response of 30, Belmont Red steers were observed for behavioural changes when presented with cues prior to receiving an electrical stimulation. A control and four treatments designed to interrupt the animal’s movement down an alley were tested. The treatments consisted of sound plus electrical stimulation, vibration plus electrical stimulation, a visual cue plus electrical stimulation and electrical stimulation by itself. The treatments were randomly applied to each animal over fi ve consecutive trials. A control treatment in which no cues were applied was used to establish a basal behavioural pattern. A trial was considered completed after each animal had been retained behind the cue barrier for at least 60 sec. All cues and electrical stimulation were manually applied from a laptop located on a portable 3.5 m tower located immediately outside the alley. The electric stimulation consisted of 1.0 Kv of electricity. Electric stimulation, sound and vibration along with the Global Position System (GPS) hardware to autonomously record the animal’s path within the alley were recorded every second.

Exercise, appetite control, and energy balance

Given the present worldwide epidemic of obesity, it is pertinent to ask how effective exercise could be in helping people to lose weight or to prevent weight gain. There is a widely held belief that exercise is futile for weight reduction because any energy expended in exercise is automatically compensated for by a corresponding increase in energy intake (EI). In other words, exercise elevates the intensity of hunger and drives food consumption. This “commonsense” view appears to originate in an energy-balance model of appetite control, which stipulates that energy expended will drive EI as a consequence of the regulation of energy balance. However, it is very clear that EI (food consumption or eating) is not just a biological matter. Eating does not occur solely to rectify some internal need state. Indeed, an examination of the relation between exercise and appetite control has shown a very weak coupling; most studies have demonstrated that food intake does not immediately rise after exercise, even after very high energy expenditure (EE).[1] The processes of exercise-induced EE and food consumption do not appear to be tightly linked. After exercise, there is only slow and partial compensation for the energy expended. Therefore, exercise can be very useful in helping to bring about weight loss and is even more important in preventing weight gain or weight regain. This editorial explores this issue.