Mesozoic climates: General circulation models and the rock record

General circulation models (GCMs) use the laws of physics and an understanding of past geography to simulate climatic responses. They are objective in character. However, they tend to require powerful computers to handle vast numbers of calculations. Nevertheless, it is now possible to compare results from different GCMs for a range of times and over a wide range of parameterisations for the past, present and future (e.g. in terms of predictions of surface air temperature, surface moisture, precipitation, etc.). GCMs are currently producing simulated climate predictions for the Mesozoic, which compare favourably with the distributions of climatically sensitive facies (e.g. coals, evaporites and palaeosols). They can be used effectively in the prediction of oceanic upwelling sites and the distribution of petroleum source rocks and phosphorites. Models also produce evaluations of other parameters that do not leave a geological record (e.g. cloud cover, snow cover) and equivocal phenomena such as storminess. Parameterisation of sub-grid scale processes is the main weakness in GCMs (e.g. land surfaces, convection, cloud behaviour) and model output for continental interiors is still too cold in winter by comparison with palaeontological data. The sedimentary and palaeontological record provides an important way that GCMs may themselves be evaluated and this is important because the same GCMs are being used currently to predict possible changes in future climate. The Mesozoic Earth was, by comparison with the present, an alien world, as we illustrate here by reference to late Triassic, late Jurassic and late Cretaceous simulations. Dense forests grew close to both poles but experienced months-long daylight in warm summers and months-long darkness in cold snowy winters. Ocean depths were warm (8 degrees C or more to the ocean floor) and reefs, with corals, grew 10 degrees of latitude further north and south than at the present time. The whole Earth was warmer than now by 6 degrees C or more, giving more atmospheric humidity and a greatly enhanced hydrological cycle. Much of the rainfall was predominantly convective in character, often focused over the oceans and leaving major desert expanses on the continental areas. Polar ice sheets are unlikely to have been present because of the high summer temperatures achieved. The model indicates extensive sea ice in the nearly enclosed Arctic seaway through a large portion of the year during the late Cretaceous, and the possibility of sea ice in adjacent parts of the Midwest Seaway over North America. The Triassic world was a predominantly warm world, the model output for evaporation and precipitation conforming well with the known distributions of evaporites, calcretes and other climatically sensitive facies for that time. The message from the geological record is clear. Through the Phanerozoic, Earth's climate has changed significantly, both on a variety of time scales and over a range of climatic states, usually baldly referred to as "greenhouse" and "icehouse", although these terms disguise more subtle states between these extremes. Any notion that the climate can remain constant for the convenience of one species of anthropoid is a delusion (although the recent rate of climatic change is exceptional). (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assembling spatially explicit landscape models of pollen and spore dispersal by wind for risk assessment

Models of windblown pollen or spore movement are required to predict gene flow from genetically modified (GM) crops and the spread of fungal diseases. We suggest a simple form for a function describing the distance moved by a pollen grain or fungal spore, for use in generic models of dispersal. The function has power-law behaviour over sub-continental distances. We show that air-borne dispersal of rapeseed pollen in two experiments was inconsistent with an exponential model, but was fitted by power-law models, implying a large contribution from distant fields to the catches observed. After allowance for this 'background' by applying Fourier transforms to deconvolve the mixture of distant and local sources, the data were best fit by power-laws with exponents between 1.5 and 2. We also demonstrate that for a simple model of area sources, the median dispersal distance is a function of field radius and that measurement from the source edge can be misleading. Using an inverse-square dispersal distribution deduced from the experimental data and the distribution of rapeseed fields deduced by remote sensing, we successfully predict observed rapeseed pollen density in the city centres of Derby and Leicester (UK).

Co-variation of temperature and precipitation in CMIP5 models and satellite observations

Current variability of precipitation (P) and its response to surface temperature (T) are analysed using coupled(CMIP5) and atmosphere-only (AMIP5) climate model simulations and compared with observational estimates. There is striking agreement between Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observed and AMIP5 simulated P anomalies over land both globally and in the tropics suggesting that prescribed sea surface temperature and realistic radiative forcings are sufficient for simulating the interannual variability in continental P. Differences between the observed and simulated P variability over the ocean, originate primarily from the wet tropical regions, in particular the western Pacific, but are reduced slightly after 1995. All datasets show positive responses of P to T globally of around 2 %/K for simulations and 3-4 %/K in GPCP observations but model responses over the tropical oceans are around 3 times smaller than GPCP over the period 1988-2005. The observed anticorrelation between land and ocean P, linked with El Niño Southern Oscillation, is captured by the simulations. All data sets over the tropical ocean show a tendency for wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier with warming. Over the wet region (75% precipitation percentile), the precipitation response is ~13-15%/K for GPCP and ~5%/K for models while trends in P are 2.4%/decade for GPCP, 0.6% /decade for CMIP5 and 0.9%/decade for AMIP5 suggesting that models are underestimating the precipitation responses or a deficiency exists in the satellite datasets.

Evaluation of water and energy budgets in regional climate models applied over Europe

This study presents a model intercomparison of four regional climate models (RCMs) and one variable resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) applied over Europe with special focus on the hydrological cycle and the surface energy budget. The models simulated the 15 years from 1979 to 1993 by using quasi-observed boundary conditions derived from ECMWF re-analyses (ERA). The model intercomparison focuses on two large atchments representing two different climate conditions covering two areas of major research interest within Europe. The first is the Danube catchment which represents a continental climate dominated by advection from the surrounding land areas. It is used to analyse the common model error of a too dry and too warm simulation of the summertime climate of southeastern Europe. This summer warming and drying problem is seen in many RCMs, and to a less extent in GCMs. The second area is the Baltic Sea catchment which represents maritime climate dominated by advection from the ocean and from the Baltic Sea. This catchment is a research area of many studies within Europe and also covered by the BALTEX program. The observed data used are monthly mean surface air temperature, precipitation and river discharge. For all models, these are used to estimate mean monthly biases of all components of the hydrological cycle over land. In addition, the mean monthly deviations of the surface energy fluxes from ERA data are computed. Atmospheric moisture fluxes from ERA are compared with those of one model to provide an independent estimate of the convergence bias derived from the observed data. These help to add weight to some of the inferred estimates and explain some of the discrepancies between them. An evaluation of these biases and deviations suggests possible sources of error in each of the models. For the Danube catchment, systematic errors in the dynamics cause the prominent summer drying problem for three of the RCMs, while for the fourth RCM this is related to deficiencies in the land surface parametrization. The AGCM does not show this drying problem. For the Baltic Sea catchment, all models similarily overestimate the precipitation throughout the year except during the summer. This model deficit is probably caused by the internal model parametrizations, such as the large-scale condensation and the convection schemes.

Evaluation of water and energy budgets in regional climate models applied over Europe

Abstract This study presents a model intercomparison of four regional climate models (RCMs) and one variable resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) applied over Europe with special focus on the hydrological cycle and the surface energy budget. The models simulated the 15 years from 1979 to 1993 by using quasi-observed boundary conditions derived from ECMWF re-analyses (ERA). The model intercomparison focuses on two large atchments representing two different climate conditions covering two areas of major research interest within Europe. The first is the Danube catchment which represents a continental climate dominated by advection from the surrounding land areas. It is used to analyse the common model error of a too dry and too warm simulation of the summertime climate of southeastern Europe. This summer warming and drying problem is seen in many RCMs, and to a less extent in GCMs. The second area is the Baltic Sea catchment which represents maritime climate dominated by advection from the ocean and from the Baltic Sea. This catchment is a research area of many studies within Europe and also covered by the BALTEX program. The observed data used are monthly mean surface air temperature, precipitation and river discharge. For all models, these are used to estimate mean monthly biases of all components of the hydrological cycle over land. In addition, the mean monthly deviations of the surface energy fluxes from ERA data are computed. Atmospheric moisture fluxes from ERA are compared with those of one model to provide an independent estimate of the convergence bias derived from the observed data. These help to add weight to some of the inferred estimates and explain some of the discrepancies between them. An evaluation of these biases and deviations suggests possible sources of error in each of the models. For the Danube catchment, systematic errors in the dynamics cause the prominent summer drying problem for three of the RCMs, while for the fourth RCM this is related to deficiencies in the land surface parametrization. The AGCM does not show this drying problem. For the Baltic Sea catchment, all models similarily overestimate the precipitation throughout the year except during the summer. This model deficit is probably caused by the internal model parametrizations, such as the large-scale condensation and the convection schemes.

Assessing continental-scale risks for generalist and specialist pollinating bee species under climate change

Increased risks of extinction to populations of animals and plants under changing climate have now been demonstrated for many taxa. This study assesses the extinction risks to species within an important genus of pollinating bees (Colletes: Apidae) by estimating the expected changes in the area and isolation of suitable habitat under predicted climatic condition for 2050. Suitable habitat was defined on the basis of the presence of known forage plants as well as climatic suitability. To investigate whether ecological specialisation was linked to extinction risk we compared three species which were generalist pollen foragers on several plant families with three species which specialised on pollen from a single plant species. Both specialist and generalist species showed an increased risk of extinction with shifting climate, and this was particularly high for the most specialised species (Colletes anchusae and C. wolfi). The forage generalist C. impunctatus, which is associated with Boreo-Alpine environments, is potentially threatened through significant reduction in available climatic niche space. Including the distribution of the principal or sole pollen forage plant, when modelling the distribution of monolectic or narrowly oligolectic species, did not improve the predictive accuracy of our models as the plant species were considerably more widespread than the specialised bees associated with them.

Aerosol impacts on drizzle properties in warm clouds from ARM Mobile Facility maritime and continental deployments

We have extensively evaluated the response of cloud-base drizzle rate (Rcb; mm day–1) in warm clouds to liquid water path (LWP; g m–2) and to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentration (NCCN; cm–3), an aerosol proxy. This evaluation is based on a 19-month long dataset of Doppler radar, lidar, microwave radiometers and aerosol observing systems from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility deployments at the Azores and in Germany. Assuming 0.55% supersaturation to calculate NCCN, we found a power law , indicating that Rcb decreases by a factor of 2–3 as NCCN increases from 200 to 1000 cm–3 for fixed LWP. Additionally, the precipitation susceptibility to NCCN ranges between 0.5 and 0.9, in agreement with values from simulations and aircraft measurements. Surprisingly, the susceptibility of the probability of precipitation from our analysis is much higher than that from CloudSat estimates, but agrees well with simulations from a multi-scale high-resolution aerosol-climate model. Although scale issues are not completely resolved in the intercomparisons, our results are encouraging, suggesting that it is possible for multi-scale models to accurately simulate the response of LWP to aerosol perturbations.

Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems

Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not exist. As numerical weather prediction models continue to improve, operational centres are increasingly using the meteorological output from these to drive hydrological models, creating hydrometeorological systems capable of forecasting river flow and flood events at much longer lead times than has previously been possible. Furthermore, developments in, for example, modelling capabilities, data and resources in recent years have made it possible to produce global scale flood forecasting systems. In this paper, the current state of operational large scale flood forecasting is discussed, including probabilistic forecasting of floods using ensemble prediction systems. Six state-of-the-art operational large scale flood forecasting systems are reviewed, describing similarities and differences in their approaches to forecasting floods at the global and continental scale. Currently, operational systems have the capability to produce coarse-scale discharge forecasts in the medium-range and disseminate forecasts and, in some cases, early warning products, in real time across the globe, in support of national forecasting capabilities. With improvements in seasonal weather forecasting, future advances may include more seamless hydrological forecasting at the global scale, alongside a move towards multi-model forecasts and grand ensemble techniques, responding to the requirement of developing multi-hazard early warning systems for disaster risk reduction.

Evaluation of petrogenetic models for intermediate and silicic plutonic rocks from the Sierra de Valle Fertil-La Huerta, Argentina: Petrologic constraints on the origin of igneous rocks in the Ordovician Famatinian-Puna paleoarc

The whole Valle Fertil-La Huerta section appears as a calc-alkaline plutonic suite typical of a destructive plate margin. New Sr and Nd isotopic whole-rock data and published whole-rock geochemistry suggest that the less-evolved intermediate (dioritic) rocks can be derived by magmatic differentiation, mainly by hornblende + plagioclase +/- Fe-Ti oxide fractional crystallization, from mafic (gabbroic) igneous precursors. Closed-system differentiation, however, cannot produce the typical intermediate (tonalitic) and silicic (granodioritic) plutonic rocks, which requires a preponderant contribution of crustal components. Intermediate and silicic plutonic rocks from Valle Fertil-La Huerta section have formed in a plate subduction setting where the thermal and material input of mantle-derived magmas promoted fusion of fertile metasedimentary rocks and favored mixing of gabbroic or dioritic magmas with crustal granitic melts. Magma mixing is observable in the field and evident in variations of chemical elemental parameters and isotopic ratios, revealing that hybridization coupled with fractionation of magmas took place in the crust. Consideration of the whole-rock geochemical and isotopic data in the context of the Famatinian-Puna magmatic belt as a whole demonstrates that the petrologic model postulated for the Sierra Valle Fertil-La Huerta section has the potential to explain the generation of plutonic and volcanic rocks across the Early Ordovician paleoarc from central and northwestern Argentina. As the petrologic model does not require the intervention of old Precambrian continental crust, the nature of the basement on which thick accretionary turbiditic sequences were deposited remains a puzzling aspect. Discussion in this paper provides insights into the nature of magmatic source rocks and mechanisms of magma generation in Cordilleran-type volcano-plutonic arcs of destructive plate margins. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Retrievals of a size parameter for phytoplankton and spectral light absorption by colored detrital matter from water-leaving radiances at SeaWiFS channels in a continental shelf region off Brazil

Many efforts are currently oriented toward extracting more information from ocean color than the chlorophyll a concentration. Among biological parameters potentially accessible from space, estimates of phytoplankton cell size and light absorption by colored detrital matter (CDM) would lead to an indirect assessment of major components of the organic carbon pool in the ocean, which would benefit oceanic carbon budget models. We present here 2 procedures to retrieve simultaneously from ocean color measurements in a limited number of bands, magnitudes, and spectral shapes for both light absorption by CDM and phytoplankton, along with a size parameter for phytoplankton. The performance of the 2 procedures was evaluated using different data sets that correspond to increasing uncertainties: ( 1) measured absorption coefficients of phytoplankton, particulate detritus, and colored dissolved organic matter ( CDOM) and measured chlorophyll a concentrations and ( 2) SeaWiFS upwelling radiance measurements and chlorophyll a concentrations estimated from global algorithms. In situ data were acquired during 3 cruises, differing by their relative proportions in CDM and phytoplankton, over a continental shelf off Brazil. No local information was introduced in either procedure, to make them more generally applicable. Over the study area, the absorption coefficient of CDM at 443 nm was retrieved from SeaWiFS radiances with a relative root mean square error (RMSE) of 33%, and phytoplankton light absorption coefficients in SeaWiFS bands ( from 412 to 510 nm) were retrieved with RMSEs between 28% and 33%. These results are comparable to or better than those obtained by 3 published models. In addition, a size parameter of phytoplankton and the spectral slope of CDM absorption were retrieved with RMSEs of 17% and 22%, respectively. If these methods are applied at a regional scale, the performances could be substantially improved by locally tuning some empirical relationships.

Caracterização tectono-estratigráfica da sequência transicional na sub-bacia de Sergipe

This thesis deals with the tectonic-stratigraphic evolution of the Transitional Sequence in the Sergipe Sub-basin (the southern segment of the Sergipe-Alagoas Basin, Northeast Brazil), deposited in the time interval of the upper Alagoas/Aptian stage. Sequence boundaries and higher order internal sequences were identified, as well as the structures that affect or control its deposition. This integrated approach aimed to characterize the geodynamic setting and processes active during deposition of the Transitional Sequence, and its relations with the evolutionary tectonic stages recognized in the East Brazilian Margin basins. This subject addresses more general questions discussed in the literature, regarding the evolution from the Rift to the Drift stages, the expression and significance of the breakup unconformity, the relationships between sedimentation and tectonics at extensional settings, as well as the control on subsidence processes during this time interval. The tectonic-stratigraphic analysis of the Transitional Sequence was based on seismic sections and well logs, distributed along the Sergipe Sub-basin (SBSE). Geoseismic sections and seismic facies analysis, stratigraphic profiles and sections, were compiled through the main structural blocks of this sub-basin. These products support the depositional and tectonic-stratigraphic evolutionary models built for this sequence. The structural analysis highlighted similarities in deformation styles and kinematics during deposition of the Rift and Transitional sequences, pointing to continuing lithospheric extensional processes along a NW trend (X strain axis) until the end of deposition of the latter sequence was finished by the end of late Aptian. The late stage of extension/rifting was marked by (i) continuous (or as pulses) fault activity along the basin, controling subsidence and creation of depositional space, thereby characterizing upper crustal thinning and (ii) sagstyle deposition of the Transitional Sequence at a larger scale, reflecting the ductile stretching and thinnning of lower and sub crustal layers combined with an increasing importance of the thermal subsidence regime. Besides the late increments of rift tectonics, the Transitional Sequence is also affected by reactivation of the border faults of SBSE, during and after deposition of the Riachuelo Formation (lower section of the Transgressive Marine Sequence, of Albian age). It is possible that this reactivation reflects (through stress propagation along the newlycreated continental margin) the rifting processes still active further north, between the Alagoas Sub-basin and the Pernambuco-Paraíba Basin. The evaporitic beds of the Transitional Sequence contributed to the development of post-rift structures related to halokinesis and the continental margin collapse, affecting strata of the overlying marine sequences during the Middle Albian to the Maastrichtian, or even the Paleogene time interval. The stratigraphic analysis evidenced 5 depositional sequences of higher order, whose vertical succession indicates an upward increase of the base level, marked by deposition of continental siliciclastic systems overlain by lagunar-evaporitic and restricted marine systems, indicating that the Transitional Sequence was deposited during relative increase of the eustatic sea level. At a 2nd order cycle, the Transitional Sequence may represent the initial deposition of a Transgressive Systems Tract, whose passage to a Marine Transgressive Sequence would also be marked by the drowning of the depositional systems. At a 3rd order cycle, the sequence boundary corresponds to a local unconformity that laterally grades to a widespread correlative conformity. This boundary surface corresponds to a breakup unconformity , being equivalent to the Pre-Albian Unconformity at the SBSE and contrasting with the outstanding Pre-upper Alagoas Unconformity at the base of the Transitional Sequence; the latter is alternatively referred, in the literature, as the breakup unconformity. This Thesis supports the Pre-Albian Unconformity as marker of a major change in the (Rift-Drift) depositional and tectonic setting at SBSE, with equivalent but also diachronous boundary surfaces in other basins of the Atlantic margin. The Pre-upper Alagoas Unconformity developed due to astenosphere uplift (heating under high lithospheric extension rates) and post-dates the last major fault pulse and subsequent extensive block erosion. Later on, the number and net slip of active faults significantly decrease. At deep to ultra deep water basin segments, seaward-dipping reflectors (SDRs) are unconformably overlain by the seismic horizons correlated to the Transitional Sequence. The SDRs volcanic rocks overly (at least in part) continental crust and are tentatively ascribed to melting by adiabatic decompression of the rising astenospheric mantle. Even though being a major feature of SBSE (and possibly of other basins), the Pre-upper Alagoas Unconformity do not correspond to the end of lithospheric extension processes and beginning of seafloor spreading, as shown by the crustal-scale extensional structures that post-date the Transitional Sequence. Based on this whole context, deposition of the Transitional Sequence is better placed at a late interval of the Rift Stage, with the advance of an epicontinental sea over a crustal segment still undergoing extension. Along this segment, sedimentation was controled by a combination of thermal and mechanical subsidence. In continuation, the creation of oceanic lithosphere led to a decline in the mechanical subsidence component, extension was transferred to the mesoceanic ridge and the newly-formed continental margin (and the corresponding Marine Sequence) began to be controlled exclusively by the thermal subsidence component. Classical concepts, multidisciplinary data and new architectural and evolutionary crustal models can be reconciled and better understood under these lines

Aquisição, processamento e análise de dados de sísmica de alta resolução na plataforma continental norte do Rio Grande do Norte: Vale inciso do rio açu

On the modern Continental Shelf to the north of Rio Grande do Norte state (NE Brazil) is located a paleo-valley, submerged during the last glacial sea-level lowstand, that marks continuation of the most important river of this area (Açu River). Despite the high level of exploration activity of oil industry, there is few information about shallow stratigraphy. Aiming to fill this gap, situated on the Neogene, was worked a marine seismic investigation, the development of a processing flow for high resolution data seismic, and the recognition of the main feature morphology of the study area: the incised valley of the River Açu. The acquisition of shallow seismic data was undertaken in conjunction with the laboratory of Marine Geology/Geophysics and Environmental Monitoring - GGEMMA of Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte UFRN, in SISPLAT project, where the geomorphological structure of the Rio paleovale Açu was the target of the investigation survey. The acquisition of geophysical data has been over the longitudinal and transverse sections, which were subsequently submitted to the processing, hitherto little-used and / or few addressed in the literature, which provided a much higher quality result with the raw data. Once proposed for the flow data was developed and applied to the data of X-Star (acoustic sensor), using available resources of the program ReflexW 4.5 A surface fluvial architecture has been constructed from the bathymetric data and remote sensing image fused and draped over Digital Elevation Models to create three-dimensional (3D) perspective views that are used to analyze the 3D geometry geological features and provide the mapping morphologically defined. The results are expressed in the analysis of seismic sections that extend over the region of the continental shelf and upper slope from mouth of the Açu River to the shelf edge, providing the identification / quantification of geometrical features such as depth, thickness, horizons and units seismic stratigraphyc area, with emphasis has been placed on the palaeoenvironmental interpretation of discordance limit and fill sediment of the incised valley, control by structural elements, and marked by the influence of changes in the sea level. The interpretation of the evolution of this river is worth can bring information to enable more precise descriptions and interpretations, which describes the palaeoenvironmental controls influencing incised valley evolution and preservation to provide a better comprehensive understanding of this reservoir analog system

Evolution of the South Atlantic passive continental margin in southern Brazil derived from zircon and apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He and fission-track data

The area between São Paulo and Porto Alegre in southeastern Brazil plays a key area to understand and quantify the evolution of the South Atlantic passive continental margin (SAPCM) in Brazil. In this contribution, we present new thermochronological data attained by fission-track and (U-Th-Sm)/He analysis on apatites and zircons from metamorphic, sedimentary and intrusive rocks. The zircon fission-track ages range between 108.4 (15.0) and 539.9 (68.4). Ma, the zircon (U-Th-Sm)/He ages between 72.9 (5.8) and 525.1(2.4). Ma, whereas the apatite fission-track ages range between 40.0 (5.3) and 134.7 (8.0). Ma, and the apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He ages between 32.1 (1.5) and 93.0 (2.5). Ma. The spatial distribution of these ages shows three distinct blocks with a different evolution cut by old fracture zones. While the central block exhibits an old stable block, the Northern and especially the Southern block underwent complex post-rift exhumation. The sample of the Northern block shows two distinct cooling phases in the Upper Cretaceous and the Paleogene to Neogene. After sedimentation of the Permian sandstones the samples of the Central block were never heated up over 100. °C with a following moderate to fast cooling phase in Cretaceous to Eocene time and a fast cooling between Oligocene to Miocene. The five thermal models obtained in the Southern block indicate a complex evolution with three cooling phases. The exhumation events of the three blocks correspond with the Paraná-Etendekka event, the alkaline intrusions due to the Trinidad hotspot, and the evolution of the continental rift basins in SE Brazil and are, therefore, most likely to be the major force for the post-rift evolution of the passive continental margin in SE Brazil, which therefore corresponds to the three main phases of the Andean orogeny. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Long-term landscape evolution and post-rift reactivation in the southeastern Brazilian passive continental margin: Taubat, basin

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Soft edge of hadron scattering and minijet models for the total and inelastic pp cross sections at LHC and beyond

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)