Semiparametric Theory for Causal Mediation Analysis: efficiency bounds, multiple robustness, and sensitivity analysis

Whilst estimation of the marginal (total) causal effect of a point exposure on an outcome is arguably the most common objective of experimental and observational studies in the health and social sciences, in recent years, investigators have also become increasingly interested in mediation analysis. Specifically, upon establishing a non-null total effect of the exposure, investigators routinely wish to make inferences about the direct (indirect) pathway of the effect of the exposure not through (through) a mediator variable that occurs subsequently to the exposure and prior to the outcome. Although powerful semiparametric methodologies have been developed to analyze observational studies, that produce double robust and highly efficient estimates of the marginal total causal effect, similar methods for mediation analysis are currently lacking. Thus, this paper develops a general semiparametric framework for obtaining inferences about so-called marginal natural direct and indirect causal effects, while appropriately accounting for a large number of pre-exposure confounding factors for the exposure and the mediator variables. Our analytic framework is particularly appealing, because it gives new insights on issues of efficiency and robustness in the context of mediation analysis. In particular, we propose new multiply robust locally efficient estimators of the marginal natural indirect and direct causal effects, and develop a novel double robust sensitivity analysis framework for the assumption of ignorability of the mediator variable.

DESIGN AND FABRICATION OF RESONANT GAS SENSOR FOR HIGH SENSITIVITY IN THE PRESENCE OF AIR DAMPING

Gas sensors have been used widely in different important area including industrial control, environmental monitoring, counter-terrorism and chemical production. Micro-fabrication offers a promising way to achieve sensitive and inexpensive gas sensors. Over the years, various MEMS gas sensors have been investigated and fabricated. One significant type of MEMS gas sensors is based on mass change detection and the integration with specific polymer. This dissertation aims to make contributions to the design and fabrication of MEMS resonant mass sensors with capacitance actuation and sensing that lead to improved sensitivity. To accomplish this goal, the research has several objectives: (1) Define an effective measure for evaluating the sensitivity of resonant mass devices; (2) Model the effects of air damping on microcantilevers and validate models using laser measurement system (3) Develop design guidelines for improving sensitivity in the presence of air damping; (4) Characterize the degree of uncertainty in performance arising from fabrication variation for one or more process sequences, and establish design guidelines for improved robustness. Work has been completed toward these objectives. An evaluation measure has been developed and compared to an RMS based measure. Analytic models of air damping for parallel plate that include holes are compared with a COMSOL model. The models have been used to identify cantilever design parameters that maximize sensitivity. Additional designs have been modeled with COMSOL and the development of an analytical model for Fixed-free cantilever geometries with holes has been developed. Two process flows have been implemented and compared. A number of cantilever designs have been fabricated and the uncertainty in process has been investigated. Variability from processing have been evaluated and characterized.

EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION OF CERTAIN INTERNAL CONDENSING AND BOILING FLOWS: THEIR SENSITIVITY TO PRESSURE FLUCTUATIONS AND HEAT TRANSFER ENHANCEMENTS

Space-based (satellite, scientific probe, space station, etc.) and millimeter – to – microscale (such as are used in high power electronics cooling, weapons cooling in aircraft, etc.) condensers and boilers are shear/pressure driven. They are of increasing interest to system engineers for thermal management because flow boilers and flow condensers offer both high fluid flow-rate-specific heat transfer capacity and very low thermal resistance between the fluid and the heat exchange surface, so large amounts of heat may be removed using reasonably-sized devices without the need for excessive temperature differences. However, flow stability issues and degradation of performance of shear/pressure driven condensers and boilers due to non-desirable flow morphology over large portions of their lengths have mostly prevented their use in these applications. This research is part of an ongoing investigation seeking to close the gap between science and engineering by analyzing two key innovations which could help address these problems. First, it is recommended that the condenser and boiler be operated in an innovative flow configuration which provides a non-participating core vapor stream to stabilize the annular flow regime throughout the device length, accomplished in an energy-efficient manner by means of ducted vapor re-circulation. This is demonstrated experimentally. Second, suitable pulsations applied to the vapor entering the condenser or boiler (from the re-circulating vapor stream) greatly reduce the thermal resistance of the already effective annular flow regime. For experiments reported here, application of pulsations increased time-averaged heat-flux up to 900 % at a location within the flow condenser and up to 200 % at a location within the flow boiler, measured at the heat-exchange surface. Traditional fully condensing flows, reported here for comparison purposes, show similar heat-flux enhancements due to imposed pulsations over a range of frequencies. Shear/pressure driven condensing and boiling flow experiments are carried out in horizontal mm-scale channels with heat exchange through the bottom surface. The sides and top of the flow channel are insulated. The fluid is FC-72 from 3M Corporation.

Magma Extraction from the Mantle Wedge at Convergent Margins Through Dikes: A Parametric Sensitivity Analysis

We address under what conditions a magma generated by partial melting at 100 km depth in the mantle wedge above a subduction zone can reach the crust in dikes before stalling. We also address under what conditions primitive basaltic magma (Mg # >60) can be delivered from this depth to the crust. We employ linear elastic fracture mechanics with magma solidification theory and perform a parametric sensitivity analysis. All dikes are initiated at a depth of 100 km in the thermal core of the wedge, and the Moho is fixed at 35 km depth. We consider a range of melt solidus temperatures (800-1100 degrees C), viscosities (10-100 Pa s), and densities (2400-2700 kg m(-3)). We also consider a range of host rock fracture toughness values (50-300 MPa m(1/2)) and dike lengths (2-5 km) and two thermal structures for the mantle wedge (1260 and 1400 degrees C at 100 km depth and 760 and 900 degrees C at 35 km depth). For the given parameter space, many dikes can reach the Moho in less than a few hundred hours, well within the time constraints provided by U series isotope disequilibria studies. Increasing the temperature in the mantle wedge, or increasing the dike length, allows additional dikes to propagate to the Moho. We conclude that some dikes with vertical lengths near their critical lengths and relatively high solidus temperatures will stall in the mantle before reaching the Moho, and these may be returned by corner flow to depths where they can melt under hydrous conditions. Thus, a chemical signature in arc lavas suggesting partial melting of slab basalts may be partly influenced by these recycled dikes. Alternatively, dikes with lengths well above their critical lengths can easily deliver primitive magmas to the crust, particularly if the mantle wedge is relatively hot. Dike transport remains a viable primary mechanism of magma ascent in convergent tectonic settings, but the potential for less rapid mechanisms making an important contribution increases as the mantle temperature at the Moho approaches the solidus temperature of the magma.

Dispersal Modeling of Fish Early Life Stages: Sensitivity with Application to Atlantic Cod in the Western Gulf of Maine

As an initial step in establishing mechanistic relationships between environmental variability and recruitment in Atlantic cod Gadhus morhua along the coast of the western Gulf of Maine, we assessed transport success of larvae from major spawning grounds to nursery areas with particle tracking using the unstructured grid model FVCOM (finite volume coastal ocean model). In coastal areas, dispersal of early planktonic life stages of fish and invertebrate species is highly dependent on the regional dynamics and its variability, which has to be captured by our models. With state-of-the-art forcing for the year 1995, we evaluate the sensitivity of particle dispersal to the timing and location of spawning, the spatial and temporal resolution of the model, and the vertical mixing scheme. A 3 d frequency for the release of particles is necessary to capture the effect of the circulation variability into an averaged dispersal pattern of the spawning season. The analysis of sensitivity to model setup showed that a higher resolution mesh, tidal forcing, and current variability do not change the general pattern of connectivity, but do tend to increase within-site retention. Our results indicate strong downstream connectivity among spawning grounds and higher chances for successful transport from spawning areas closer to the coast. The model run for January egg release indicates 1 to 19 % within-spawning ground retention of initial particles, which may be sufficient to sustain local populations. A systematic sensitivity analysis still needs to be conducted to determine the minimum mesh and forcing resolution that adequately resolves the complex dynamics of the western Gulf of Maine. Other sources of variability, i.e. large-scale upstream forcing and the biological environment, also need to be considered in future studies of the interannual variability in transport and survival of the early life stages of cod.

Populist Communication in the Context of European Parliament Elections 2014

Over the last decade European democracies have been facing a challenge by the rising force of new populist movements. The emergence of the financial and sovereign debt crisis in Europe created new fertile soil for the strengthening of old-established – and the development of new – populist parties in several EU-member states. José Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, emphasized his increased unease concerning these developments when he was speaking at the annual Brussels Think Tank Forum on 22. April 2013: “I am deeply concerned about the divisions that we see emerging: political extremes and populism tearing apart the political support and the social fabric that we need to deal with the crisis; […]” (Barroso 2013). Indeed, European elites seem to be increasingly worried by these recent developments which are perceived as an impending stress test of the Union and the project of European integration as a whole (Hartleb 2013). Sure enough, the results of the recent European Parliament Elections 2014 revealed a great support for populist political parties in many societies of EU-member countries. To understand the success of populist parties in Europe it is crucial to first shed light on the nature of populist party communication itself. Significant communicative differences may explain the varying success of populist parties between and within countries, while a pure demand-side approach (i.e. a focus on the preferences of the electorate) often fails to do so (Mudde 2010). The aim of this study is therefore to analyse what different types of populist communication styles emerge during the EP election campaign 2014 and under which conditions populist communication styles are selected by political parties. So far, the empirical measurement of populism has received only scarce attention (Rooduijn & Pauwels 2011). Besides, most of the existing empirical investigations of populism are single case studies (Albertazzi & McDonnell 2008) and scholars have not yet developed systematic methods to measure populism in a comparative way (Rooduijn & Pauwels 2011). This is a consequence of a lack of conceptual clarity which goes along with populism (Taggart 2000; Barr 2009; Canovan 1999) due to its contextual sensitivity. Hence, populism in Europe should be analysed in a way that clarifies the concept of populism and moreover takes into account that the Europeanization of politics has an influence on the type of populist party communication, which is intended in the course of that study.

A Model Study of the Circulation in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) and Its Adjacent Coastal Waters: 2. Sensitivity Experiments

The Princeton Ocean Model is used to study the circulation in the Pear River Estuary (PRE) and the adjacent coastal waters in the winter and summer seasons. Wong et al. [2003] compares the simulation results with the in situ measurements collected during the Pearl River Estuary Pollution Project (PREPP). In this paper, sensitivity experiments are carried out to examine the plume and the associated frontal dynamics in response to seasonal discharges and monsoon winds. During the winter, convergence between the seaward spreading plume water and the saline coastal water sets up a salinity front that aligns from the northeast to the southwest inside the PRE. During the summer the plume water fills the PRE at the surface and spreads eastward in the coastal waters in response to the prevailing southwesterly monsoon. The overall alignment of the plume is from the northwest to the southeast. The subsurface front is similar to that in the winter and summer except that the summer front is closer to the mouth and the winter front closer to the head of the estuary. Inside the PRE, bottom flows are always toward the head of the estuary, attributed to the density gradient associated with the plume front. In contrast, bottom flows in the shelf change from offshore in winter to onshore in summer, reflecting respectively the wintertime downwelling and summertime upwelling. Wind also plays an essential role in controlling the plume at the surface. An easterly wind drives the plume westward regardless winter or summer. The eastward spreading of the plume during the summer can be attributed to the southerly component of the wind. On the other hand, the surface area of the plume is positively proportional to the amount of discharge.

Observations of the Sensitivity of Beam Attenuation to Particle Size in a Coastal Bottom Boundary Layer

The goal of this study was to test the hypothesis that the aggregated state of natural marine particles constrains the sensitivity of optical beam attenuation to particle size. An instrumented bottom tripod was deployed at the 12-m node of the Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory to monitor particle size distributions, particle size-versus-settling-velocity relationships, and the beam attenuation coefficient (c(p)) in the bottom boundary layer in September 2007. An automated in situ filtration system on the tripod collected 24 direct estimates of suspended particulate mass (SPM) during each of five deployments. On a sampling interval of 5 min, data from a Sequoia Scientific LISST 100x Type B were merged with data from a digital floc camera to generate suspended particle volume size distributions spanning diameters from approximately 2 mu m to 4 cm. Diameter-dependent densities were calculated from size-versus-settling-velocity data, allowing conversion of the volume size distributions to mass distributions, which were used to estimate SPM every 5 min. Estimated SPM and measured c(p) from the LISST 100x were linearly correlated throughout the experiment, despite wide variations in particle size. The slope of the line, which is the ratio of c(p) to SPM, was 0.22 g m(-2). Individual estimates of c(p):SPM were between 0.2 and 0.4 g m(-2) for volumetric median particle diameters ranging from 10 to 150 mu m. The wide range of values in c(p):SPM in the literature likely results from three factors capable of producing factor-of-two variability in the ratio: particle size, particle composition, and the finite acceptance angle of commercial beam-transmissometers.

Intrinsic pH-Sensitivity of Cells in the Retrotrapezoid Nucleus: Possible Role of Glia in Respiratory Drive

An increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) and protons (H+) are the primary signals for breathing. Cells that sense changes in CO2/H+ levels and increase breathing accordingly are located in a region of the caudal medulla oblongata called the retrotrapezoid nucleus (RTN). Specifically, select RTN neurons are intrinsically pH sensitive and send excitatory projections to the respiratory rhythm generator to drive breathing. Glial cells in the RTN are thought to contribute to this respiratory drive, possibly by releasing ATP in response to increases in CO2/H+ levels. However, pH sensitivity of RTN glial cells has yet to be determined. Therefore, the goal of my thesis is to determine if acutely dissociated RTN cells can respond to changes in pH in isolation. To make this determination I used ratiometric fluorescent microscopy to measure intracellular calcium in dissociated RTN cells during changes in bath pH. I found that a small percentage of RTN cells (16%) respond to bath acidification from pH 7.3 to pH 6.9 with an increase in fluorescence indicating an increase in intracellular calcium. Preliminary electrophysiological findings suggest that responsive cells are unable to make action potentials, thus suggesting their identity to be glia. These results indicate that a subset of pH sensitive cells in the RTN are intrinsically pH sensitive and that glia cells may possibly play a role in central chemoreception.

Temperature modulates coccolithophorid sensitivity of growth, photosynthesis and calcification to increasing seawater pCO2

Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are expected to impact pelagic ecosystem functioning in the near future by driving ocean warming and acidification. While numerous studies have investigated impacts of rising temperature and seawater acidification on planktonic organisms separately, little is presently known on their combined effects. To test for possible synergistic effects we exposed two coccolithophore species, Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica, to a CO2 gradient ranging from ~0.5-250 µmol/kg (i.e. ~20-6000 µatm pCO2) at three different temperatures (i.e. 10, 15, 20°C for E. huxleyi and 15, 20, 25°C for G. oceanica). Both species showed CO2-dependent optimum-curve responses for growth, photosynthesis and calcification rates at all temperatures. Increased temperature generally enhanced growth and production rates and modified sensitivities of metabolic processes to increasing CO2. CO2 optimum concentrations for growth, calcification, and organic carbon fixation rates were only marginally influenced from low to intermediate temperatures. However, there was a clear optimum shift towards higher CO2 concentrations from intermediate to high temperatures in both species. Our results demonstrate that the CO2 concentration where optimum growth, calcification and carbon fixation rates occur is modulated by temperature. Thus, the response of a coccolithophore strain to ocean acidification at a given temperature can be negative, neutral or positive depending on that strain's temperature optimum. This emphasizes that the cellular responses of coccolithophores to ocean acidification can only be judged accurately when interpreted in the proper eco-physiological context of a given strain or species. Addressing the synergistic effects of changing carbonate chemistry and temperature is an essential step when assessing the success of coccolithophores in the future ocean.

Transfer of the HIV-1 cyclophilin-binding site to simian immunodeficiency virus from Macaca mulatta can confer both cyclosporin sensitivity and cyclosporin dependence

HIV-1 specifically incorporates the peptidyl prolyl isomerase cyclophilin A (CyPA), the cytosolic receptor for the immunosuppressant cyclosporin A (CsA). HIV-1 replication is inhibited by CsA as well as by nonimmunosuppressive CsA analogues that bind to CyPA and interfere with its virion association. In contrast, the related simian immunodeficiency virus SIVmac, which does not interact with CyPA, is resistant to these compounds. The incorporation of CyPA into HIV-1 virions is mediated by a specific interaction between the active site of the enzyme and the capsid (CA) domain of the HIV-1 Gag polyprotein. We report here that the transfer of HIV-1 CA residues 86–93, which form part of an exposed loop, to the corresponding position in SIVmac resulted in the efficient incorporation of CyPA and conferred an HIV-1-like sensitivity to a nonimmunosuppressive cyclosporin. HIV-1 CA residues 86–90 were also sufficient to transfer the ability to efficiently incorporate CyPA, provided that the length of the CyPA-binding loop was preserved. However, the resulting SIVmac mutant required the presence of cyclosporin for efficient virus replication. The results indicate that the presence or absence of a type II tight turn adjacent to the primary CyPA-binding site determines whether CyPA incorporation enhances or inhibits viral replication. By demonstrating that CyPA-binding-site residues can induce cyclosporin sensitivity in a heterologous context, this study provides direct in vivo evidence that the exposed loop between helices IV and V of HIV-1 CA not merely constitutes a docking site for CyPA but is a functional target of this cellular protein.

Loss of p21 increases sensitivity to ionizing radiation and delays the onset of lymphoma in atm-deficient mice

Ataxia telangiectasia (AT) is an autosomal recessive disorder characterized by growth retardation, cerebellar ataxia, oculocutaneous telangiectasias, and a high incidence of lymphomas and leukemias. In addition, AT patients are sensitive to ionizing radiation. Atm-deficient mice recapitulate most of the AT phenotype. p21cip1/waf1 (p21 hereafter), an inhibitor of cyclin-dependent kinases, has been implicated in cellular senescence and response to γ-radiation-induced DNA damage. To study the role of p21 in ATM-mediated signal transduction pathways, we examined the combined effect of the genetic loss of atm and p21 on growth control, radiation sensitivity, and tumorigenesis. As might have been expected, our data provide evidence that p21 modifies the in vitro senescent response seen in AT fibroblasts. Further, it is a downstream effector of ATM-mediated growth control. In addition, however, we find that loss of p21 in the context of an atm-deficient mouse leads to a delay in thymic lymphomagenesis and an increase in acute radiation sensitivity in vivo (the latter principally because of effects on the gut epithelium). Modification of these two crucial aspects of the ATM phenotype can be related to an apparent increase in spontaneous apoptosis seen in tumor cells and in the irradiated intestinal epithelium of mice doubly null for atm and p21. Thus, loss of p21 seems to contribute to tumor suppression by a mechanism that operates via a sensitized apoptotic response. These results have implications for cancer therapy in general and AT patients in particular.