Modular risk modeling and management of water infrastructure disaster incidents

Water supply and wastewater control are critical elements of society's infrastructure. The objective of this study will be to provide a generic risk assessment tool to provide municipalities and the nation as a whole with a quantifiable assessment of their vulnerability to water infrastructure threats. The approach will prioritize countermeasures and identify where research and development is required to further minimize risk. This paper outlines the current context, primary concerns and state-of-the art in critical infrastructure risk management for the water sector and proposes a novel approach to resolve existing questions in the field. The proposed approach is based on a modular framework that derives a quantitative risk index for varied domains of interest. The approach methodology is scaleable and based on formal definitions of event probability and severity. The framework is equally applicable to natural and human-induced hazard types and can be used for analysis of compound risk events.

Designing inclusive interfaces through user modeling and simulation

Elderly and disabled people can be hugely benefited through the advancement of modern electronic devices, as those can help them to engage more fully with the world. However, existing design practices often isolate elderly or disabled users by considering them as users with special needs. This article presents a simulator that can reflect problems faced by elderly and disabled users while they use computer, television, and similar electronic devices. The simulator embodies both the internal state of an application and the perceptual, cognitive, and motor processes of its user. It can help interface designers to understand, visualize, and measure the effect of impairment on interaction with an interface. Initially a brief survey of different user modeling techniques is presented, and then the existing models are classified into different categories. In the context of existing modeling approaches the work on user modeling is presented for people with a wide range of abilities. A few applications of the simulator, which shows the predictions are accurate enough to make design choices and point out the implication and limitations of the work, are also discussed. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Seismic response of stone masonry spires: Computational and experimental modeling

Analytical methods provide a global context from which to understand the dynamics of stone spires, but computational and experimental methods are useful to predict more specific behavior of multiple block structures. In this paper, the spire of St. Mary Magdalene church in Waltham-on-the-Wolds, UK, which was damaged in the 2008 Lincolnshire Earthquake, is used as a case study. Both a physical model and a discrete element computational model of the spire were created and used to investigate collapse under constant horizontal acceleration, impulse base motion, and earthquake ground motion. Results indicate that the global behavior compares well with analytical modeling, but local block displacements evident in DEM and experimental results also reduce the stability of the structure. In this context, the observed damage to St. Mary Magdalene church is evaluated and discussed. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Reynolds number effects on scalar dissipation rate transport and its modeling in turbulent premixed combustion

The effects of turbulent Reynolds number, Ret, on the transport of scalar dissipation rate of reaction progress variable in the context of Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes simulations have been analyzed using three-dimensional simplified chemistry-based direct numerical simulation (DNS) data of freely propagating turbulent premixed flames with different values of Ret. Scaling arguments have been used to explain the effects of Ret on the turbulent transport, scalar-turbulence interaction, and the combined reaction and molecular dissipation terms. Suitable modifications to the models for these terms have been proposed to account for Ret effects, and the model parameters include explicit Ret dependence. These expressions approach expected asymptotic limits for large values of Ret. However, turbulent Reynolds number Ret does not seem to have any major effects on the modeling of the term arising from density variation. Copyright © Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

A finite-element algorithm for modeling variably saturated flows

A general numerical algorithm in the context of finite element scheme is developed to solve Richards’ equation, in which a mass-conservative, modified head based scheme (MHB) is proposed to approximate the governing equation, and mass-lumping techniques are used to keep the numerical simulation stable. The MHB scheme is compared with the modified Picard iteration scheme (MPI) in a ponding infiltration example. Although the MHB scheme is a little inferior to the MPI scheme in respect of mass balance, it is superior in convergence character and simplicity. Fully implicit, explicit and geometric average conductivity methods are performed and compared, the first one is superior in simulation accuracy and can use large time-step size, but the others are superior in iteration efficiency. The algorithm works well over a wide variety of problems, such as infiltration fronts, steady-state and transient water tables, and transient seepage faces, as demonstrated by its performance against published experimental data. The algorithm is presented in sufficient detail to facilitate its implementation.

Search by Shape Examples: Modeling Nonrigid Deformation

We describe our work on shape-based image database search using the technique of modal matching. Modal matching employs a deformable shape decomposition that allows users to select example objects and have the computer efficiently sort the set of objects based on the similarity of their shape. Shapes are compared in terms of the types of nonrigid deformations (differences) that relate them. The modal decomposition provides deformation "control knobs" for flexible matching and thus allows for selecting weighted subsets of shape parameters that are deemed significant for a particular category or context. We demonstrate the utility of this approach for shape comparison in 2-D image databases; however, the general formulation is applicable to signals of any dimensionality.

Modeling the Java Bytecode Verifier

The Java programming language has been widely described as secure by design. Nevertheless, a number of serious security vulnerabilities have been discovered in Java, particularly in the Bytecode Verifier, a critical component used to verify class semantics before loading is complete. This paper describes a method for representing Java security constraints using the Alloy modeling language. It further describes a system for performing a security analysis on any block of Java bytecodes by converting the bytes into relation initializers in Alloy. Any counterexamples found by the Alloy analyzer correspond directly to insecure code. Analysis of the approach in the context of known security exploits is provided. This type of analysis represents a significant departure from standard malware analysis methods based on signatures or anomaly detection.

Exploring alternatives for milk quality improvement and more efficient dairy production in a smallholder farming context – case study: Mantaro Valley (Peru)

Consumer demand is revolutionizing the way products are being produced, distributed and marketed. In relation to the dairy sector in developing countries, aspects of milk quality are receiving more attention from both society and the government. However, milk quality management needs to be better addressed in dairy production systems to guarantee the access of stakeholders, mainly small-holders, into dairy markets. The present study is focused on an analysis of the interaction of the upstream part of the dairy supply chain (farmers and dairies) in the Mantaro Valley (Peruvian central Andes), in order to understand possible constraints both stakeholders face implementing milk quality controls and practices; and evaluate “ex-ante” how different strategies suggested to improve milk quality could affect farmers and processors’ profits. The analysis is based on three complementary field studies conducted between 2012 and 2013. Our work has shown that the presence of a dual supply chain combining both formal and informal markets has a direct impact on dairy production at the technical and organizational levels, affecting small formal dairy processors’ possibilities to implement contracts, including agreements on milk quality standards. The analysis of milk quality management from farms to dairy plants highlighted the poor hygiene in the study area, even when average values of milk composition were usually high. Some husbandry practices evaluated at farm level demonstrated cost effectiveness and a big impact on hygienic quality; however, regular application of these practices was limited, since small-scale farmers do not receive a bonus for producing hygienic milk. On the basis of these two results, we co-designed with formal small-scale dairy processors a simulation tool to show prospective scenarios, in which they could select their best product portfolio but also design milk payment systems to reward farmers’ with high milk quality performances. This type of approach allowed dairy processors to realize the importance of including milk quality management in their collection and manufacturing processes, especially in a context of high competition for milk supply. We concluded that the improvement of milk quality in a smallholder farming context requires a more coordinated effort among stakeholders. Successful implementation of strategies will depend on the willingness of small-scale dairy processors to reward farmers producing high milk quality; but also on the support from the State to provide incentives to the stakeholders in the formal sector.

The multiphysics modeling of solidification and melting processes

Solidification and melting processes involve a range of physical phenomena and their interactions (i.e., multiphysics). Computational modeling of such processes presents a significant challenge, both in representing the physics involved and in handling the resulting coupled behavior. Two methods for the computational modeling of multiphysics processes in complex geometries are highlighted in the context of four challenging applications

Social Identity and Youth Aggressive and Delinquent Behaviors in a Context of Political Violence

The goal of the current study was to examine the moderating role of in-group social identity on relations between youth exposure to sectarian antisocial behavior in the community and aggressive behaviors. Participants included 770 mother-child dyads living in interfaced neighborhoods of Belfast. Youth answered questions about aggressive and delinquent behaviors as well as the extent to which they targeted their behaviors toward members of the other group. Structural equation modeling results show that youth exposure to sectarian antisocial behavior is linked with increases in both general and sectarian aggression and delinquency over one year. Reflecting the positive and negative effects of social identity, in-group social identity moderated this link, strengthening the relationship between exposure to sectarian antisocial behavior in the community and aggression and delinquency towards the out-group. However, social identity weakened the effect for exposure to sectarian antisocial behavior in the community on general aggressive behaviors. Gender differences also emerged; the relation between exposure to sectarian antisocial behavior and sectarian aggression was stronger for boys. The results have implications for understanding the complex role of social identity in intergroup relations for youth in post-accord societies.

Gamma-ray diagnostics of Type Ia supernovae. Predictions of observables from three-dimensional modeling

Context. Although the question of progenitor systems and detailed explosion mechanisms still remains a matter of discussion, it is commonly believed that Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are production sites of large amounts of radioactive nuclei. Even though the gamma-ray emission due to radioactive decays is responsible for powering the light curves of SNe Ia, gamma rays themselves are of particular interest as a diagnostic tool because they directly lead to deeper insight into the nucleosynthesis and the kinematics of these explosion events. Aims: We study the evolution of gamma-ray line and continuum emission of SNe Ia with the objective of analyzing the relevance of observations in this energy range. We seek to investigate the chances for the success of future MeV missions regarding their capabilities for constraining the intrinsic properties and the physical processes of SNe Ia. Methods: Focusing on two of the most broadly discussed SN Ia progenitor scenarios - a delayed detonation in a Chandrasekhar-mass white dwarf (WD) and a violent merger of two WDs - we used three-dimensional explosion models and performed radiative transfer simulations to obtain synthetic gamma-ray spectra. Both chosen models produce the same mass of 56Ni and have similar optical properties that are in reasonable agreement with the recently observed supernova SN 2011fe. We examine the gamma-ray spectra with respect to their distinct features and draw connections to certain characteristics of the explosion models. Applying diagnostics, such as line and hardness ratios, the detection prospects for future gamma-ray missions with higher sensitivities in the MeV energy range are discussed. Results: In contrast to the optical regime, the gamma-ray emission of our two chosen models proves to be quite different. The almost direct connection of the emission of gamma rays to fundamental physical processes occurring in SNe Ia permits additional constraints concerning several explosion model properties that are not easily accessible within other wavelength ranges. Proposed future MeV missions such as GRIPS will resolve all spectral details only for nearby SNe Ia, but hardness ratio and light curve measurements still allow for a distinction of the two different models at 10 Mpc and 16 Mpc for an exposure time of 106 s. The possibility of detecting the strongest line features up to the Virgo distance will offer the opportunity to build up a first sample of SN Ia detections in the gamma-ray energy range and underlines the importance of future space observatories for MeV gamma rays.

On the Ontological Quality and Logical Quality of Conceptual-Modeling Grammars: The Need for a Dual Perspective

A core activity in information systems development involves building a conceptual model of the domain that an information system is intended to support. Such models are created using a conceptual-modeling (CM) grammar. Just as high-quality conceptual models facilitate high-quality systems development, high-quality CM grammars facilitate high-quality conceptual modeling. This paper provides a new perspective on ways to improve the quality of the semantics of CM grammars. For many years, the leading approach to this topic has relied on ontological theory. We show, however, that the ontological approach captures only half the story. It needs to be coupled with a logical approach. We explain how the ontological quality and logical quality of CM grammars interrelate. Furthermore, we outline three contributions that a logical approach can make to evaluating the quality of CM grammars: a means of seeing some familiar conceptual-modeling problems in simpler ways; the illumination of new problems; and the ability to prove the benefit of modifying existing CM grammars in particular ways. We demonstrate these benefits in the context of the Entity-Relationship grammar. More generally, our paper opens up a new area of research with many opportunities for future research and practice.

Machine learning methods for quantitative structure-property relationship modeling

Tese de doutoramento, Informática (Bioinformática), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2014

Metagenomic systems biology: frameworks for modeling and characterizing the gut microbiome

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2014

Agent-Based Modeling of Deshopping Behaviour: A Single Shop Model with Multiple Deshoppers

Deshopping is rapidly turning into a modern day scourge for the retailers worldwide due to its prevalence and regularity. The presence of flexible return policies have made retail return management a real challenging issue for both the present and the future. In this study, we propose and develop a multi-agent simulation model for deshopper behavior in a single shop context. The background, theoretical underpinning, logical and computational model, experiment design and simulation results are reported and discussed in the paper.