Term structure of interest rates. European financial integration

In this paper we estimate, analyze and compare the term structures of interest rates in six different countries over the period 1992-2004. We apply the Nelson-Siegel model to obtain the term structures of interest rates at weekly intervals. A total of 4,038 curves are estimated and analyzed. Four European Monetary Union countries¿Spain, France, Germany and Italy¿are included. The UK is also included as a European non-member of the Monetary Union. Finally the US completes the analysis. The goal is to determine the differences in the shapes of the term structure of interest rates among these countries. Likewise, we can determine the most usual term structure shapes that appear for each country.*****

Cetuximab In Combination With Docetaxel In Patients (Pts) With Metastatic Castration Resistant (Mcrpc) And Docetaxel-Refractory Prostate Cancer: Final Analysis Of The Multicenter Phase Ii Trial Sakk 08/07

There is no registered treatment (ttr) for pts with mCRPC who have progressive disease during or shortly after docetaxel (doc). EGFR overexpression increases in prostate cancer during the course of the disease. We investigated efficacy and safety of the combination of the monoclonal EGFR antibody cetuximab (cet) and doc in pts with mCRPC who are doc-refractory. Methods: Pts with mCRPC progressing during or < 90 days after at least 12 weeks of doc were included. Ttr consisted of the same doc regimen as prior to progression (35mg/m2 d1,8,15 q4w or 75mg/m2 q3w) in combination with cet (400mg/m2 d1, then 250mg/m2 weekly). Primary endpoint was progression free survival (PFS) at 12 weeks defined as absence of PSA progression or progression of metastases (mets). Secondary endpoints included toxicity, PFS at 24 weeks, PSA response, response of measureable disease and overall survival. 35 pts were needed in a Simon's two stage optimal design with a power of 90% and a significance level of 5% in order to test PFS rate at 12 weeks of £10% vs ?30%. Results: 35 evaluable pts were enrolled at 15 Swiss centers between 7/08 and 9/09. Median follow up was 14.8 months. Confirmed PFS at 12 weeks was 34% (95%CI 19-52%), PFS at 24 weeks was 20% and overall survival was 12.0 months (95%CI 7.1 -15.6). 20% (7/35) had a confirmed decline in PSA ? 50% and 31% (11/35) had a confirmed PSA decline ? 30%. Of pts with measurable disease (n=24) PR, SD and PD at week 12 was 4%, 54% and 25%, respectively (17% not evaluable). 3/9 (33%) pts with PDduring last doc ttr before inclusion reached the primary endpoint compared to 7/18 (39%) with PR or SD to last doc. 54% of evaluable pts experienced grade 3 and 6% grade 4 toxicity. Discussion: The result of the primary endpoint was promising in this first trial to test cet in combination with doc in pts with docetaxel-refractory mCRPC. Because this goal was achieved in such a highly pretreated pts population it appears that inhibition of the EGFR pathway may play a more important and persistent role in the treatment of prostate cancer than perceived so far. Further research is therefore warranted. Disclosure: R. Cathomas: - Membership on advisory board for sanofi aventis (suisse) and Merck. S. Gillessen: - Membership in advisory board for Sanofi Aventis. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interest.

Rapid Improvement In Health-Related Quality Of Life In Gouty Arthritis Patients Treated With Canakinumab (Acz885) Compared To Triamcinolone Acetonide

Background : Canakinumab, a fully human anti-IL-1b antibody has been shown to control inflammation in gouty arthritis. This study evaluated changes in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients treated with canakinumab or triamcinolone acetonide (TA).Methods : An 8-wk, dose-ranging, active controlled, single-blind study in patients (_18 to _80 years) with acute gouty arthritis flare, refractory to or contraindicated to NSAlDs and/or colchicine, were randomized to canakinumab 10, 25, 50, 90, 150mg sc or TA 40mg im. HRQoL was assessed using patient reported outcomes evaluating PCS and MCS, and subscale scores of SF-36_ [acute version 2]) and functional disability (HAQ-DI_).Results : In canakinumab 150mg group, the most severe impairment at baseline was reported for physical functioning and bodily pain; levels of 41.5 and 36.0, respectively, which improved in 7 days to 80.0 and 72.2 (mean increases of 39.0 and 35.6) and at 8 wks improved to 86.1 and 86.6 (mean increases of 44.6 and 50.6); these were higher than levels seen in the general US population. TA group, showed less improvement in 7 days (mean increases of 23.3 and 21.3 for physical function and bodily pain). Functional disability scores, measured by the HAQ-DI_ decreased in both treatment groups (Table 1).Conclusions : Gouty arthritis patients treated with canakinumab showed a rapid improvement in physical and mental well-being based on SF-36_ scores. In contrast to the TA group, patients treated with canakinumab showed improvement in 7 days in physical function and bodily pain approaching levels of the general population.Disclosure statement : U.A., A.F., V.M., D.R., P.S. and K.S. are employees and shareholders of Novartis Pharma AG. A.P. has received research support from Novartis Pharma AG. N.S. has received research support and consultancy fees from Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation, has served on advisory boards for Novartis, Takeda, Savient, URL Pharma and EnzymeRx, and is/has been a member of a speakers' bureau for Takeda. A.S. has received consultation fees from Novartis Pharma AG, Abbott, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Essex, Pfizer, MSD, Roche, UCB and Wyeth. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interest.

Term structure of interest rates. European financial integration

In this paper we estimate, analyze and compare the term structures of interest rates in six different countries over the period 1992-2004. We apply the Nelson-Siegel model to obtain the term structures of interest rates at weekly intervals. A total of 4,038 curves are estimated and analyzed. Four European Monetary Union countries¿Spain, France, Germany and Italy¿are included. The UK is also included as a European non-member of the Monetary Union. Finally the US completes the analysis. The goal is to determine the differences in the shapes of the term structure of interest rates among these countries. Likewise, we can determine the most usual term structure shapes that appear for each country.*****

The development of a web page for lipid science and research. Main web sites of interest

En internet encontramos gran cantidad de información científico-técnica cuya validez no suele estar controlada por comités correctores. Para aprovechar estos recursos es necesario filtrar y facilitar el acceso del usuario a la información. En este artículo se expone la experiencia práctica en el desarrollo de una página WEB centrada en las actividades del grupo de investigación «Calidad Nutricional y Tecnología de los Lípidos». Los objetivos de esta página WEB fueron los siguientes: difusión de las actividades del grupo de investigación, aprovechar los recursos que ofrece internet y fomentar y facilitar su uso. Esta experiencia permitió presentar una metodología de trabajo eficaz para conseguir estos objetivos. Finalmente, se presentan un gran número de direcciones WEB agrupadas por apartados en el ámbito de los lípidos. Estas direcciones han sido rigurosamente seleccionadas, entre un gran número de referencias consultadas, siguiendo una serie de criterios que se discuten en este trabajo, para ofrecer aquellas que presentan un mayor interés práctico.

Machine learning analysis and modeling of interest rate curves

The present research deals with the review of the analysis and modeling of Swiss franc interest rate curves (IRC) by using unsupervised (SOM, Gaussian Mixtures) and supervised machine (MLP) learning algorithms. IRC are considered as objects embedded into different feature spaces: maturities; maturity-date, parameters of Nelson-Siegel model (NSM). Analysis of NSM parameters and their temporal and clustering structures helps to understand the relevance of model and its potential use for the forecasting. Mapping of IRC in a maturity-date feature space is presented and analyzed for the visualization and forecasting purposes.

The nine-year sustained cost-containment impact of swiss pilot physicians-pharmacists quality circles.

BACKGROUND: Six pioneer physicians-pharmacists quality circles (PPQCs) located in the Swiss canton of Fribourg (administratively corresponding to a state in the US) were under the responsibility of 6 trained community pharmacists moderating the prescribing process of 24 general practitioners (GPs). PPQCs are based on a multifaceted collaborative process mediated by community pharmacists for improving compliance with clinical guidelines within GPs' prescribing practices. OBJECTIVE: To assess, over a 9-year period (1999-2007), the cost-containment impact of the PPQCs. METHODS: The key elements of PPQCs are a structured continuous quality improvement and education process; local networking; feedback of comparative and detailed data regarding costs, drug choice, and frequency of prescribed drugs; and structured independent literature review for interdisciplinary continuing education. The data are issued from the community pharmacy invoices to the health insurance companies. The study analyzed the cost-containment impact of the PPQCs in comparison with GPs working in similar conditions of care without particular collaboration with pharmacists, the percentage of generic prescriptions for specific cardiovascular drug classes, and the percentage of drug costs or units prescribed for specific cardiovascular drugs. RESULTS: For the 9-year period, there was a 42% decrease in the drug costs in the PPQC group as compared to the control group, representing a $225,000 (USD) savings per GP only in 2007. These results are explained by better compliance with clinical and pharmacovigilance guidelines, larger distribution of generic drugs, a more balanced attitude toward marketing strategies, and interdisciplinary continuing education on the rational use of drugs. CONCLUSIONS: The PPQC work process has yielded sustainable results, such as significant cost savings, higher penetration of generics and reflection on patient safety, and the place of "new" drugs in therapy. The PPQCs may also constitute a solid basis for implementing more comprehensive collaborative programs, such as medication reviews, adherence-enhancing interventions, or disease management approaches.

Structural macro factors and the affine term structure of interest rates

This work consists of three essays investigating the ability of structural macroeconomic models to price zero coupon U.S. government bonds. 1. A small scale 3 factor DSGE model implying constant term premium is able to provide reasonable a fit for the term structure only at the expense of the persistence parameters of the structural shocks. The test of the structural model against one that has constant but unrestricted prices of risk parameters shows that the exogenous prices of risk-model is only weakly preferred. We provide an MLE based variance-covariance matrix of the Metropolis Proposal Density that improves convergence speeds in MCMC chains. 2. Affine in observable macro-variables, prices of risk specification is excessively flexible and provides term-structure fit without significantly altering the structural parameters. The exogenous component of the SDF is separating the macro part of the model from the term structure and the good term structure fit has as a driving force an extremely volatile SDF and an implied average short rate that is inexplicable. We conclude that the no arbitrage restrictions do not suffice to temper the SDF, thus there is need for more restrictions. We introduce a penalty-function methodology that proves useful in showing that affine prices of risk specifications are able to reconcile stable macro-dynamics with good term structure fit and a plausible SDF. 3. The level factor is reproduced most importantly by the preference shock to which it is strongly and positively related but technology and monetary shocks, with negative loadings, are also contributing to its replication. The slope factor is only related to the monetary policy shocks and it is poorly explained. We find that there are gains in in- and out-of-sample forecast of consumption and inflation if term structure information is used in a time varying hybrid prices of risk setting. In-sample yield forecast are better in models with non-stationary shocks for the period 1982-1988. After this period, time varying market price of risk models provide better in-sample forecasts. For the period 2005-2008, out of sample forecast of consumption and inflation are better if term structure information is incorporated in the DSGE model but yields are better forecasted by a pure macro DSGE model.

Randomised, multicentre, phase III, open-label study of alectinib vs crizotinib in treatment-naïve anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK)-positive advanced NSCLC (ALEX study).

Background: In ∼5% of advanced NSCLC tumours, ALK tyrosine kinase is constitutively activated after translocation of ALK. ALK+ NSCLC was shown to be highly sensitive to the first approved ALK inhibitor, crizotinib. However, all pts eventually relapse on crizotinib mainly due to secondary ALK mutations/amplification or CNS metastases. Alectinib is a highly selective, potent, oral next-generation ALK inhibitor. Clinical phase II alectinib data in 46 crizotinib-naïve pts with ALK+ NSCLC reported an objective response rate (ORR) of 93.5% and a 1-year progression-free rate of 83% (95% CI: 68-92) (Inoue et al. J Thorac Oncol 2013). CNS activity was seen: of 14 pts with baseline brain metastasis, 11 had prior CNS radiation, 9 of these experienced CNS and systemic PFS of >12 months; of the 3 pts without prior CNS radiation, 2 were >15 months progression free. Trial design: Randomised, multicentre, phase III, open-label study in pts with treatment-naïve ALK+ advanced, recurrent, or metastatic NSCLC. All pts must provide pretreatment tumour tissue to confirm ALK rearrangement (by IHC). Pts (∼286 from ∼180 centres, ∼30 countries worldwide) will be randomised to alectinib (600mg oral bid, with food) or crizotinib (250mg oral bid, with/without food) until disease progression (PD), unacceptable toxicity, withdrawal of consent, or death. Stratification factors are: ECOG PS (0/1 vs 2), race (Asian vs non-Asian), baseline CNS metastases (yes vs no). Primary endpoint: PFS by investigators (RECIST v1.1). Secondary endpoints: PFS by Independent Review Committee (IRC); ORR; duration of response; OS; safety; pharmacokinetics; quality of life. Additionally, time to CNS progression will be evaluated (MRI) for the first time in a prospective randomised NSCLC trial as a secondary endpoint. Pts with isolated asymptomatic CNS progression will be allowed to continue treatment beyond documented progression until systemic PD and/or symptomatic CNS progression, according to investigator opinion. Time to CNS progression will be retrospectively assessed by the IRC using two separate criteria, RECIST and RANO. Further details: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02075840). Disclosure: T.S.K. Mok: Advisory boards: AZ, Roche, Eli Lilly, Merck Serono, Eisai, BMS, AVEO, Pfizer, Taiho, Boehringer Ingelheim, Novartis, GSK Biologicals, Clovis Oncology, Amgen, Janssen, BioMarin; board of directors: IASLC; corporate sponsored research: AZ; M. Perol: Advisory boards: Roche; S.I. Ou: Consulting: Pfizer, Chugai, Genentech Speaker Bureau: Pfizer, Genentech, Boehringer Ingelheim; I. Bara: Employee: F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd; V. Henschel: Employee and stock: F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd.; D.R. Camidge: Honoraria: Roche/Genentech. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interest.

Prospective evaluation of circulating VEGF in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer treated with bevacizumab, pemetrexed and cisplatin in the trial SAKK19/09.

Aim: Bevacizumab is a monoclonal antibody directed against the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF). The previous phase II trial ABIGAIL (Reck, 2010) suggested circulating VEGF as a prognostic, but not predictive, biomarker for patients (pts) with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with bevacizumab. We prospectively measured VEGF in the multicenter phase II trial SAKK19/09 (NCT01116219). Methods: SAKK19/09 enrolled 77 evaluable patients (pts) with previously untreated, advanced nonsquamous NSCLC and EGFR wild type. Pts received 4 cycles of cisplatin 75mg/m2 (or carboplatin AUC5), pemetrexed 500mg/m2 and bevacizumab 7.5mg/kg, followed by maintenance therapy with pemetrexed and bevacizumab until progression by RECIST1.1. Follow-up CT scans were performed every 6 weeks until week 54 and every 12 weeks thereafter. Baseline EDTA blood samples were sent by same-day courier to the central laboratory for centrifugation, aliquoting, and freezing. Upon completion of enrollment, aliquots were thawed, and VEGF quantification was performed centrally using Luminex® Performance Assay Human Base Kit A (R&D Systems, Abingdon, UK). The mean value was used to stratify pts into two groups (low versus high VEGF). Best response rate assessed by RECIST1.1 (CR + PR versus SD + PD). Results: Clinical results of the SAKK19/09 trial were reported previously (Gautschi, 2013). Baseline plasma VEGF was detectable in 71 of 77 (92%) evaluable patients treated with chemotherapy and bevacizumab. The mean value was 74.9 pg/ml, the median 47.5 pg/ml, and the range 3.55 to 310 pg/ml. Using the mean as a predefined cutoff value, 50 patients had low VEGF levels and 21 patients had high VEGF levels. High VEGF was significantly associated with shorter PFS (4.1 vs 8.3 months, HR = 2.56; 95%CI: 1.43- 4.57; p = 0.0015) and OS (8.7 vs 17.5 months, HR = 2.67; 95% CI: 1.37-5.20; p = 0.0041), but not with best response rate ( p = 0.2256). Conclusions: Consistent with the ABIGAIL trial, circulating VEGF was prognostic, but not predictive for response, in the current trial. Further work is ongoing to identify potentially predictive biomarkers for bevacizumab, using comprehensive proteomic analyses. Disclosure: S.I. Rothschild: I received honoraria for the participation in advisory boards from Eli Lilly and Roche and for presentations at scientific symposiums sponsored by Roche; O. Gautschi: Honoraria for advisory boards of Eli Lilly and Roche; R. Cathomas: Advisory board member: Eli Lilly. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interest.

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy and extrapleural pneumonectomy (EPP) of malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) with or without hemithoracic radiotherapy: final results of the randomized multicenter phase II trial SAKK17/04.

Aim: We have previously documented the feasibility of neoadjuvant chemotherapy and EPP in a multicenter trial of MPM (Weder, Ann Oncol 18: 1196, 2007). The objectives of the trimodality trial SAKK17/04 (NCT00334594) were to evaluate the time to loco-regional relapse with or without high dose hemithoracic radiotherapy in a prospective multicenter randomized phase II trial in patients with R0 and R1 resection after neoadjuvant chemotherapy and EPP. Methods: Eligible patients had pathologically confirmed MPM, surgically resectable TNM stage (T1-3 N0-2 M0), PS0-1, ages 18-70 years. Part 1 had a phase II design, and included neoadjuvant chemotherapy with 3 cycles of cisplatin and pemetrexed, followed by restaging and EPP. The primary endpoint of part 1 was complete macroscopic resection (R0-1). Part 2 randomized consenting patients with R0-1 resection into two parallel phase II arms (control arm A and radiotherapy arm B). The primary endpoint for part 2 was loco-regional relapse-free survival (RFS). To detect a 1 year increase with 80% power and 10% alpha, 37 patients were needed for arm B. Secondary endpoints included operability, tolerability of chemotherapy and radiotherapy, survival, and translational research Results: Because accrual of part 2 was slower than planned, the trial was stopped in 2013. Overall, 153 patients entered the trial, of whom 125 underwent surgery and 99 had a complete macroscopic resection (primary endpoint part 1). Of the later patients, 54 could be randomized 1:1 into each arm. Reasons for non-randomization included patient refusal in 24 and ineligibility or protocol deviations in 21. Of the 27 patients randomized to hemithoracic radiotherapy, 25 completed the treatment as planned. For part 1 the median RFS was 8.8 (95%CI: 7.3-10.7) and median OS was 15.0 (95% CI: 12.1-19.3) months. For part 2 the median local RFS for group A was 7.6 (95%CI: 5.5-10.7) and for group B 9.4 (95%CI: 6.5-11.9) months (primary endpoint part 2), while the overall RFS and OS for group A were 5.7 (95%CI: 3.5-8.8) and 16.9 (95%CI: 10.7-23.6) months and for group B 7.6 (95% CI:5.2-10.6) and 14.9 (95%CI: 7.0-17.6) months. Conclusions: This study did not reach the primary endpoint which was defined as one-year increase in loco-regional relapse-free survival and thus does not support the routine use of hemithoracic RT after neoadjuvant chemotherapy and EPP. Disclosure: All authors have declared no conflicts of interest.

Final results of the SAKK 16/00 trial: a randomized phase III trial comparing neoadjuvant chemoradiation to chemotherapy alone in stage IIIA/N2 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

Aim: One standard option in the treatment of stage IIIA/N2 NSCLC is neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by surgery. We investigated in a randomized trial whether the addition of neoadjuvant radiotherapy would improve the outcome. Here we present the final results of this study. Methods: Patients (pts.) with pathologically proven, resectable stage IIIA/N2 NSCLC, performance status 0-1, and adequate organ function were randomized 1:1 to chemoradiation (CRT) with 3 cycles of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (cisplatin 100 mg/m2 and docetaxel 85 mg/m2 d1, q3weeks) followed by accelerated concomitant boost radiotherapy (RT) with 44 Gy in 22 fractions in 3 weeks, or neoadjuvant chemotherapy alone (CT), with subsequent surgery for all pts. The primary endpoint was event-free survival (EFS). Results: 232 pts. were randomized in 23 centers, the median follow-up was 53 months. Two thirds were men, median age was 60 years (range 37-76). Histology was squamous cell in 33%, adenocarcinoma in 43%. Response rate to CRT was 61% vs. 44% with CT. 85% of all pts. underwent surgery, 30-day postoperative mortality was 1%. The rate of complete resection was 91% (CRT) vs. 81% (CT) and the pathological complete remission (pCR) rate was 16% vs. 12%. The median EFS was 13.1 months (95% CI 9.9 - 23.5) for the CRT group vs. 11.8 months (95% CI 8.4 - 15.2) in the CT arm (p 0.665). The median overall survival (OS) with CRT was 37.1 months (95% CI 22.6 -50), with CT 26.1 months ( 95% CI 26.1 - 52.1, p 0.938). The local failure rate was 23% in both arms. In the CT arm 12 pts. were given postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) for R1 resection, 6 pts. received PORT in violation of the protocol. Pts. with a pCR, mediastinal downstaging to ypN0/1 and complete resection had a better outcome. Toxicity of chemotherapy was substantial, especially febrile neutropenia was common, whereas RT was well tolerated. Conclusions: This is the first completed phase III trial to evaluate the role of induction chemoradiotherapy and surgery, in comparison to neoadjuvant CT alone followed by surgery. RT was active, it increased response, complete resection and pCR rates. However, this failed to translate into an improvement of local control, EFS or OS. Notably, surgery after induction treatment was safe, including pneumonectomy. The overall survival rates of our neoadjuvant regimen are very encouraging, especially for a multicenter setting. Disclosure: M. Pless: Advisory Board for Sanofi; R. Cathomas: Advisory Board Sanofi D.C. Betticher: Advisory Board Sanofi. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interest.