Renewable power forecast to scheduling of thermal units

In this work is discussed the importance of the renewable production forecast in an island environment. A probabilistic forecast based on kernel density estimators is proposed. The aggregation of these forecasts, allows the determination of thermal generation amount needed to schedule and operating a power grid of an island with high penetration of renewable generation. A case study based on electric system of S. Miguel Island is presented. The results show that the forecast techniques are an imperative tool help the grid management.

Difficulties in access and estimates of public beds in intensive care units in the state of Rio de Janeiro

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To estimate the required number of public beds for adults in intensive care units in the state of Rio de Janeiro to meet the existing demand and compare results with recommendations by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. METHODS The study uses a hybrid model combining time series and queuing theory to predict the demand and estimate the number of required beds. Four patient flow scenarios were considered according to bed requests, percentage of abandonments and average length of stay in intensive care unit beds. The results were plotted against Ministry of Health parameters. Data were obtained from the State Regulation Center from 2010 to 2011. RESULTS There were 33,101 medical requests for 268 regulated intensive care unit beds in Rio de Janeiro. With an average length of stay in regulated ICUs of 11.3 days, there would be a need for 595 active beds to ensure system stability and 628 beds to ensure a maximum waiting time of six hours. Deducting current abandonment rates due to clinical improvement (25.8%), these figures fall to 441 and 417. With an average length of stay of 6.5 days, the number of required beds would be 342 and 366, respectively; deducting abandonment rates, 254 and 275. The Brazilian Ministry of Health establishes a parameter of 118 to 353 beds. Although the number of regulated beds is within the recommended range, an increase in beds of 122.0% is required to guarantee system stability and of 134.0% for a maximum waiting time of six hours. CONCLUSIONS Adequate bed estimation must consider reasons for limited timely access and patient flow management in a scenario that associates prioritization of requests with the lowest average length of stay.

Reactivity of syringyl and guaiacyl lignin units and delignification kinetics in the kraft pulping of eucalyptus globulus wood using Py-Gc-Ms/FID

Eucalyptus globulus sapwood and heartwood showed no differences in lignin content (23.0% vs. 23.7%) and composition: syringyl-lignin (17.9% vs. 18.0%) and guaiacyl-lignin (4.8% vs. 5.2%). Delignification kinetics of S- and G-units in heartwood and sapwood was investigated by Py-GC–MS/FID at 130, 150 and 170 °C and modeled as double first-order reactions. Reactivity differences between S and G-units were small during the main pulping phase and the higher reactivity of S over G units was better expressed in the later pulping stage. The residual lignin composition in pulps was different from wood or from samples in the initial delignification stages, with more G and H-units. S/G ratio ranged from 3 to 4.5 when pulp residual lignin was higher than 10%, decreasing rapidly to less than 1. The S/H was initially around 20 (until 15% residual lignin), decreasing to 4 when residual lignin was about 3%.

Location model for CCA-treated - wood waste remediation units

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciência e Sistemas de Informação Geográfica

Self-scheduling and bidding strategies of thermal units with stochastic emission constraints

This paper is on the self-scheduling problem for a thermal power producer taking part in a pool-based electricity market as a price-taker, having bilateral contracts and emission-constrained. An approach based on stochastic mixed-integer linear programming approach is proposed for solving the self-scheduling problem. Uncertainty regarding electricity price is considered through a set of scenarios computed by simulation and scenario-reduction. Thermal units are modelled by variable costs, start-up costs and technical operating constraints, such as: forbidden operating zones, ramp up/down limits and minimum up/down time limits. A requirement on emission allowances to mitigate carbon footprint is modelled by a stochastic constraint. Supply functions for different emission allowance levels are accessed in order to establish the optimal bidding strategy. A case study is presented to illustrate the usefulness and the proficiency of the proposed approach in supporting biding strategies. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Remuneration Structure Definition for Distributed Generation Units and Demand Response Participants Aggregation

The implementation of competitive electricity markets has changed the consumers’ and distributed generation position power systems operation. The use of distributed generation and the participation in demand response programs, namely in smart grids, bring several advantages for consumers, aggregators, and system operators. The present paper proposes a remuneration structure for aggregated distributed generation and demand response resources. A virtual power player aggregates all the resources. The resources are aggregated in a certain number of clusters, each one corresponding to a distinct tariff group, according to the economic impact of the resulting remuneration tariff. The determined tariffs are intended to be used for several months. The aggregator can define the periodicity of the tariffs definition. The case study in this paper includes 218 consumers, and 66 distributed generation units.

Biotyping, serotyping and ribotyping as epidemiological tools in the evaluation of Acinetobacter baumannii dissemination in hospital units, Sorocaba, São Paulo, Brazil

Dissemination of Acinetobacter baumannii strains in different units of a hospital in Sorocaba, São Paulo, Brazil was evaluated over a period of two years. By using biotyping, serotyping and ribotyping, 27 distinct clones were differentiated among 76 strains isolated between 1993-94, from clinical specimens of hospitalized patients. Two clones, 2:O4:A (biotype:serotype:ribotype) and 2:O29:A accounted for the majority of strains widely disseminated in the units during 1993. The introduction in the hospital setting, of a new clone, 6:O13:B, at the end of 1993 and its predominance through 1994 is discussed. Among 15 strains isolated from neonates, 6 (40%) belonged to the same clone, 2:O4:A. Interestingly, this clone was almost all recovered in neonatal intensive care unit, nursery and in pediatric unit. All strains were susceptible to imipenem and polymyxcin B. Multiresistant strains (up to 12 antimicrobial agents) accounted for 66.7% and 84.8% of the strains isolated in 1993 and in 1994, respectively.

Is There Sufficient Training of Health Care Staff on Noise Reduction in Neonatal Intensive Care Units? a Pilot Study From NeoNoise Project

Evidence indicates that exposure to high levels of noise adversely affects human health, and these effects are dependent upon various factors. In hospitals, there are many sources of noise, and high levels exert an impact on patients and staff, increasing both recovery time and stress, respectively. The goal of this pilot study was to develop, implement and evaluate the effectiveness of a training program (TP) on noise reduction in a Neonatal Intensive Care Units (NICU) by comparing the noise levels before and after the implementation of the program. A total of 79 health professionals participated in the study. The measurements of sound pressure levels took into account the layout of the unit and location of the main sources of noise. General results indicated that LAeq levels before implementation of the training program were often excessive, ranging from 48.7 ± 2.94 dBA to 71.7 ± 4.74 dBA, exceeding international guidelines. Similarly following implementation of the training program noise levels remained unchanged (54.5 ± 0.49 dBA to 63.9 ± 4.37 dBA), despite a decrease in some locations. There was no significant difference before and after the implementation of TP. However a significant difference was found for Lp, Cpeak, before and after training staff, suggesting greater care by healthcare professionals performing their tasks. Even recognizing that a TP is quite important to change behaviors, this needs to be considered in a broader context to effectively control noise in the NICU.

Coalition of distributed generation units to Virtual Power Players - a game theory approach

Smart Grids (SGs) have emerged as the new paradigm for power system operation and management, being designed to include large amounts of distributed energy resources. This new paradigm requires new Energy Resource Management (ERM) methodologies considering different operation strategies and the existence of new management players such as several types of aggregators. This paper proposes a methodology to facilitate the coalition between distributed generation units originating Virtual Power Players (VPP) considering a game theory approach. The proposed approach consists in the analysis of the classifications that were attributed by each VPP to the distributed generation units, as well as in the analysis of the previous established contracts by each player. The proposed classification model is based in fourteen parameters including technical, economical and behavioural ones. Depending of the VPP strategies, size and goals, each parameter has different importance. VPP can also manage other type of energy resources, like storage units, electric vehicles, demand response programs or even parts of the MV and LV distribution network. A case study with twelve VPPs with different characteristics and one hundred and fifty real distributed generation units is included in the paper.

Factors associated to infection by Toxoplasma gondii in pregnant women attended in Basic Health Units in the city of Rolândia, Paraná, Brazil

The aim of the present work was to determine the prevalence of IgG and IgM anti-Toxoplasma gondii antibodies and the factors associated to the infection in pregnant women attended in Basic Health Units in Rolândia, Paraná, Brazil. The sample was divided in two groups: group I (320 pregnant women who were analyzed from July 2007 to February 2008) and group II (287 pregnant women who were analyzed from March to October 2008). In group I, it was found 53.1% of pregnant women with IgG reactive and IgM non-reactive, 1.9% with IgG and IgM reactive, 0.3% with IgG non-reactive and IgM reactive and 44.7% with IgG and IgM non-reactive. In group II, it was found 55.1% with IgG reactive and IgM non-reactive and 44.9% with IgG and IgM non-reactive. The variables associated to the presence of IgG antibodies were: residence in rural areas, pregnant women between 35-40 years old, low educational level, low family income, more than one pregnancy, drinking water which does not originate from the public water supply system and the habit of handling soil or sand. Guidance on primary prevention measures and the quarterly serological monitoring of the pregnant women in the risk group are important measures to prevent congenital toxoplasmosis.

HRM specificities’ on Portugal hotel units

This paper presents the main Human Resources Management (HRM) specificities’ on Portuguese hotel units. We try to understand the role of HRM on behavior of co-workers and quality service in hotel units and to know the future tendency of human capital profile on Portuguese hotel units and the role of HRM function on management of their staff. We, also, try to explore if Portuguese culture has influence on HRM specificities’ of hotel units. This phenomenon has a special relevance in the Portuguese context, because this country is known a growing process of tourism industry in recent years. Furthermore, little is known about HRM department’ contributions to their human capital management and development. This paper is one of the first to focus specifically on Portuguese hotel units and it also seeks to present findings that stem from the Human Resources Managers’ perspective. The paper is based on qualitative case studies. The data were collected through semi-structured interviews of 12 human resource managers from 12 hotel units located in Portugal. The results show that although there is not an effective HRM, current HRM practices are enough to encouraging pro-environmental behavior in their staff and they have a direct effect on customer satisfaction and competitiveness of sector. However, managers recognize there is need introduce some change on short-term to promote a better performance of staff with effect on customers satisfaction and competitiveness on sector in Portugal. According to these results, the paper discusses the major theoretical and practical implications.

Characterizing the Risk Profiles of Intensive Care Units

OBJECTIVE: To develop a new method to evaluate the performance of individual ICUs through the calculation and visualisation of risk profiles. METHODS: The study included 102,561 patients consecutively admitted to 77 ICUs in Austria. We customized the function which predicts hospital mortality (using SAPS II) for each ICU. We then compared the risks of hospital mortality resulting from this function with the risks which would be obtained using the original function. The derived risk ratio was then plotted together with point-wise confidence intervals in order to visualise the individual risk profile of each ICU over the whole spectrum of expected hospital mortality. MAIN MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: We calculated risk profiles for all ICUs in the ASDI data set according to the proposed method. We show examples how the clinical performance of ICUs may depend on the severity of illness of their patients. Both the distribution of the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test statistics and the histogram of the corresponding P values demonstrated a good fit of the individual risk models. CONCLUSIONS: Our risk profile model makes it possible to evaluate ICUs on the basis of the specific risk for patients to die compared to a reference sample over the whole spectrum of hospital mortality. Thus, ICUs at different levels of severity of illness can be directly compared, giving a clear advantage over the use of the conventional single point estimate of the overall observed-to-expected mortality ratio.

POLYCLONAL OUTBREAK OF BLOODSTREAM INFECTIONS CAUSED BY Burkholderia cepacia COMPLEX IN HEMATOLOGY AND BONE MARROW TRANSPLANT OUTPATIENT UNITS

Aim: The objective was to describe an outbreak of bloodstream infections by Burkholderia cepacia complex (Bcc) in bone marrow transplant and hematology outpatients.Methods: On February 15, 2008 a Bcc outbreak was suspected. 24 cases were identified. Demographic and clinical data were evaluated. Environment and healthcare workers' (HCW) hands were cultured. Species were determined and typed. Reinforcement of hand hygiene, central venous catheter (CVC) care, infusion therapy, and maintenance of laminar flow cabinet were undertaken. 16 different HCWs had cared for the CVCs. Multi-dose heparin and saline were prepared on counter common to both units.Findings: 14 patients had B. multivorans(one patient had also B. cenopacia), six non-multivorans Bcc and one did not belong to Bcc. Clone A B. multivorans occurred in 12 patients (from Hematology); in 10 their CVC had been used on February 11/12. Environmental and HCW cultures were negative. All patients were treated with meropenem, and ceftazidime lock-therapy. Eight patients (30%) were hospitalized. No deaths occurred. After control measures (multidose vial for single patient; CVC lock with ceftazidime; cleaning of laminar flow cabinet; hand hygiene improvement; use of cabinet to store prepared medication), no new cases occurred.Conclusions: This polyclonal outbreak may be explained by a common source containing multiple species of Bcc, maybe the laminar flow cabinet common to both units. There may have been contamination by B. multivorans (clone A) of multi-dose vials.